Value of: Ristolainen to Toronto.

[Funk21]

If A-Pete wants to sign in Toronto I think one of the big four forwards gets traded for futures to make cap space for him

I don’t think you’re off base with that assumption and I would suspect it would be Nylander as Trade bait. He has more than restored his trade value with this past season exploits.

Alex P. Is exactly the type of player we need on the TML. A veteran former captain that has won a SC, Gold Medal, etc. He would allow D Corp players to not play out of position. Strong D, much need size and a bomb from the point.

Rielly Pietrangelo
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Lehtonen
Marincin


Dermott and Nylander traded. Liljegren spends the entire season in AHL and is called up at the TDL.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Colin Miller played regular minutes on a cup finalist. Brandon Montour played regular minutes on a good Anaheim blueline. Henri Jokiharju got regular minutes for Joel Quenville. Marco Scandella was acquired by the defending Stanley Cup champion and inserted into their top 4. Rasmus Dahlin is a 1st overall pick who is 2nd all-time in points by a teenage defenceman. I’ve got no proof, but I suspect Jake McCabe would get regular minutes for most NHL teams. Ristolainen got more minutes than all of them.

So my question is: are you sure?

Montour is the only one of them that was getting consistent 20+ minute usage, the rest were getting 2nd pair minutes prior to Buffalo. Risto got more minutes than a bunch of 2nd pairing D-men. I don't care how many points Dahlin got as a teenager if his coach doesn't trust him playing 20 minutes. I'm sure he'll be a Norris contender down the line, but he's not challenging anyone for clear-cut #1D on a playoff team today.

If your team has no other options than Risto to play 25 minutes a night, you are not making the playoffs, full stop. No team with playoff aspirations would risk playing someone who bleeds that many high-danger chances against just so he can contribute a 3rd liner's offensive production. If we were talking about a 80 point Burns type, sure, maybe the risk is worth the reward. 40 points is not worth turning your team into a shooting gallery for 25 minutes a game.

Someone earlier said that Kapanen wouldn't be enough considering they scored the same amount of points, but if we're being honest, Kapanen would almost certainly be better at defending.

 

[Richard88]

How would Toronto even fit in Ristolainen's $5.4m caphit? Seems to expensive to be a feasible option.

 

[biotk]

No team with playoff aspirations would risk playing someone who bleeds that many high-danger chances against just so he can contribute a 3rd liner's offensive production.

Toronto would have presumably made the playoffs this year for the fourth consecutive season with a top-pair bleeding high danger chances at a higher rate (often much higher) than Risto each season (and doing so while playing more minutes, more time against elite competition and with much lower QoT).

 

[is the answer jesus]

Dermott did not regress last year. People who only look at advanced stats might think so, but that is a problem with advanced stats, not Dermott's play.

Yeah I'm sure he had a great year. That's why his name constantly comes up as an expendable piece for a team that has very few quality blue liners.

 

[biotk]

How would Toronto even fit in Ristolainen's $5.4m caphit? Seems to expensive to be a feasible option.

For any top-4 D they will probably have to trade two of Johnsson, Kapanen or Kerfoot (or more).

Bottom line is Toronto has far too many NHL ready wingers under contract anyway: Marner, Nylander, Hyman, Kapanen, Mik, Kerfoot (C/LW), Johnsson, Clifford, Engvall, Barabanov, Petan, Ago. And probably Robertson and Korshkov.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Toronto would have presumably made the playoffs this year for the fourth consecutive season with a top-pair bleeding high danger chances at a higher rate (often much higher) than Risto each season (and doing so while playing more minutes, more time against elite competition and with much lower QoT).

"...just so he can contribute a 3rd liner's production" is kind of a relevant part of the quote there.

Over the past two seasons:

Risto: 1.8 HDGA/60
Rielly: 1.76 HDGA/60

Risto still worse, but fair, Rielly isn't a great defender and played injured in a high event system. Here's the difference:

Risto: 1.39 HDGF/60
Rielly: 2.16 HDGF/60

Rielly actually outscores his competition when he's on the ice, Risto gets embarrassed instead. Part of that is the system and personnel, but if you are playing that game, Rielly's HD chances against would be dramatically lower in a low-event system. Riverboat gambling isn't inherently bad if you can consistently come out ahead.

Again, our top pair is our biggest weakness and we're actively looking to shore it up. It's pretty clear that Risto is not the answer given that he's one of the few big-minute defensemen that would actively hurt us defensively without adding anything offensively.

 

[biotk]

Yeah I'm sure he had a great year.

He was eased in after returning from injury, and then was stuck behind Rielly and Muzzin. When injuries to other D allowed him to move up to the top-4, and sometimes top-pairing he played pretty well. He went from a sheltered 3rd-pairing D in his first two seasons, to some one who played top-4 and against decent competition for the last 25 games of the season or so. That is not a regression, but the opposite.

That's why his name constantly comes up as an expendable piece for a team that has very few quality blue liners.

The Leafs have a log jam on the left with Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Lehtonen, Sandin, Rosen etc on the left and Holl on the right, with a fanbase that is in therapy from years under Babcock's reign of paranoia about RHD-LHD splits. That is the only reason why his name comes up. You would know this if you watched players play. I personally would move one or two of Rielly, Sandin, Dermott or Lehtonen to the right side, and I assume that is what the team will do.

 

[biotk]

"...just so he can contribute a 3rd liner's production" is kind of a relevant part of the quote there.

Over the past two seasons:

Risto: 1.8 HDGA/60
Rielly: 1.76 HDGA/60

Risto still worse, but fair, Rielly isn't a great defender and played injured in a high event system.

Really? You are going to go from saying "No team with playoff aspirations would risk playing someone who bleeds that many high-danger chances against" to now switch to HDGA, and then bring up HDGF's when one played really strong QoT and one didn't. Not an honest actor.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Really? You are going to go from saying "No team with playoff aspirations would risk playing someone who bleeds that many high-danger chances against" to now switch to HDGA, and then bring up HDGF's when one played really strong QoT and one didn't. Not an honest actor.

I specifically said his defensive holes aren't worth his offense, you're literally taking half of my quote and calling me dishonest lmao. I don't care if my guy is allowing 5 goals against as long as he's scoring 10 consistently. Risto is not nearly good enough offensively to justify how bad he is defensively. Rielly is bad defensively, I have no problem saying that, but his offense generally more than compensates for it. Feel free to switch to shots instead of goals, Rielly allows 1 more HD chance/60 but his team takes 3 more.

The last thing this team needs is Rielly with no offensive game, I wouldn't take that player for free no matter how much you forcefeed him un-earned PP minutes so you can say "B-B-BUT HE SCORED 40!!".

 

[Byron Bitz]

I don’t think you’re off base with that assumption and I would suspect it would be Nylander as Trade bait. He has more than restored his trade value with this past season exploits.

Alex P. Is exactly the type of player we need on the TML. A veteran former captain that has won a SC, Gold Medal, etc. He would allow D Corp players to not play out of position. Strong D, much need size and a bomb from the point.

Rielly Pietrangelo
Muzzin Holl
Sandin Lehtonen
Marincin


Dermott and Nylander traded. Liljegren spends the entire season in AHL and is called up at the TDL.

Also I think I remember Rielly and Pietrangelo playing really well together at one of the World Chanpionships

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Say what you want about Ristolainen who clearly has his warts, but he’s still a 40+pt top 4D at a very reasonable cap hit who’s played some massive minutes in the past.

Kapanen has put up just as many points despite often playing with Matthews and being a forward...

Kappy played on the 3rd line other then filling in for Injuries.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

There is no other team in the league (aside from maybe some bottom feeders) that is so thin on defense that Risto would get 25 minutes of ice time or 4+ minutes of PP time a game. Him scoring 40 points is 100% a product of being on a bad Buffalo team that simply lacks better options for those minutes. Risto's production would drop like a rock as soon as he starts playing the 18-20 minutes MAX he should be playing with how garbage his defense is.

Dahlin is the go to PP guy on Buffalo not even Risto. They also have Montour, McCabe, Miller and Jokiharju. They’re just missing a Muzzin/Pesce type just like Toronto.

 

[is the answer jesus]

He was eased in after returning from injury, and then was stuck behind Rielly and Muzzin. When injuries to other D allowed him to move up to the top-4, and sometimes top-pairing he played pretty well. He went from a sheltered 3rd-pairing D in his first two seasons, to some one who played top-4 and against decent competition for the last 25 games of the season or so. That is not a regression, but the opposite.



The Leafs have a log jam on the left with Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Lehtonen, Sandin, Rosen etc on the left and Holl on the right, with a fanbase that is in therapy from years under Babcock's reign of paranoia about RHD-LHD splits. That is the only reason why his name comes up. You would know this if you watched players play. I personally would move one or two of Rielly, Sandin, Dermott or Lehtonen to the right side, and I assume that is what the team will do.

My team is in the same division. I also watched a lot of Leafs games when the Sabres weren't playing because I enjoy games that tend to be back and forth high scoring affairs. So I've watched Dermott and the Leafs quite a bit thank you. Regression might have been the wrong word. Dermott has failed to take any sort of significant steps forward in his development. He played a sheltered role for the majority of the year. It's great he played more minutes down the stretch, but was his play a positive impact in those games? I'm sure you'll claim it was, but I don't see the #'s to back that up. If your bar is set at: he didn't produce much offense, but didn't completely shit himself defensively like many of our defensemen I can see why you're jumping to his defense. I think the team as a whole looked much better minus Babcock so maybe that helped Dermott and will him moving forward. What we have to work with right now though is his overall body of work. Which shows he doesn't provide much offense, but can be a decent defensive defenseman. Maybe a 2nd pairing guy at best. If memory serves me correct he's played on the right side before so there'd really be nothing holding the Leafs back from keeping him and putting him there and they probably go that route. Not because he's some diamond in the rough, but because no one will pay a premium for a guy who's unproven and needs a new contract.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Dahlin is the go to PP guy on Buffalo not even Risto. They also have Montour, McCabe, Miller and Jokiharju. They’re just missing a Muzzin/Pesce type just like Toronto.

He was this year, but prior to that Risto was consistently in the top-15 leaguewide among Dmen for PP time.

18/19: 13th
17/18: 6th
16/17: 13th
15/16: 11th

40 points isn't impressive at all when you're forcefed the minutes Risto got.

 

[biotk]

Regression might have been the wrong word. Dermott has failed to take any sort of significant steps forward in his development. He played a sheltered role for the majority of the year. It's great he played more minutes down the stretch, but was his play a positive impact in those games? I'm sure you'll claim it was, but I don't see the #'s to back that up.

Did Dermott takes positive steps in his development? Yes. He played well in top-4 and top-pairing roles. Well enough that the Leafs' did fine with Muzzin, Rielly and Ceci out. He also took on more and more PK duties and did well there as well.

Do the numbers reflect that? I don't care as the numbers are completely useless, which is why NHL players intuitively know that the advanced stats numbers are a joke.

Dermott is not a strong offensive producer. He is good defensively and extremely good in transition and preventing zone entries.

I never said that he was a diamond in the rough. I said that he has not regressed. Which he hasn't. He developed nicely this year after being stagnant last year and starting this season with an injury (the exact opposite of what advanced stats would indicate).

 

[untouchable21]

You just showed your knowledge about Risto with that quote

Wasn’t referring to Ristolainen. I was referring to Risto - LINEN

joke over your head. No need to get all up in arms to defend your team’s player.

 

[biotk]

I specifically said his defensive holes aren't worth his offense, you're literally taking half of my quote and calling me dishonest lmao. I don't care if my guy is allowing 5 goals against as long as he's scoring 10 consistently. Risto is not nearly good enough offensively to justify how bad he is defensively. Rielly is bad defensively, I have no problem saying that, but his offense generally more than compensates for it. Feel free to switch to shots instead of goals, Rielly allows 1 more HD chance/60 but his team takes 3 more.

Remember back in 2016/17 and 2017/18 when the Leafs were making the playoffs and Rielly was allowing more shots against and more high danger shots against than his team was generating when he was on the ice? That the was time when his deployment was most similar to Risto's, but still far more favourable to Rielly.

Not that it matters to me - I know that advanced stats are completely useless for what people use them for. Ceci dropped from 38.2 SA/60 and 13.3 HDCA/60 in his last year in Ottawa to 30.5 SA/60 and 10.3 HDCA/60 in Toronto. Useless. All one has to do is watch a game and see how poorly CF/SF/HD reflects upon what happens on the ice. Incredibly poorly to the point of being of negative value for D (which is why Gardiner always had great advanced stats). Watch team "A" lose the puck in the opposing zone with the players on both sides being tired. One player changes on team A - the #1 D comes on the ice. The opposing team now with the puck changes most, if not all of their players, including having McDavid and Drai hop on the ice. Team A gets pounded for the next 30 seconds. This is not the #1 D's fault at all - it would be far worse without him on the ice. This kind of thing happens over and over again and results in statistics that are not at all indicative of what people think they are. It is completely situational. I have tracked over a dozen games meticulously for whether advanced stats give value for D, including ones with Doughty and Keith were playing. The reality is that they are completely misleading. NHL players already know simply based on who advanced stats numbers claim are great and bad that the numbers are a joke and they are.

 

[iamitter]

I'm more of a Ristocotton guy myself.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Remember back in 2016/17 and 2017/18 when the Leafs were making the playoffs and Rielly was allowing more shots against and more high danger shots against than his team was generating when he was on the ice? That the was time when his deployment was most similar to Risto's, but still far more favourable to Rielly.

Not that it matters to me - I know that advanced stats are completely useless for what people use them for. Ceci dropped from 38.2 SA/60 and 13.3 HDCA/60 in his last year in Ottawa to 30.5 SA/60 and 10.3 HDCA/60 in Toronto. Useless. All one has to do is watch a game and see how poorly CF/SF/HD reflects upon what happens on the ice. Incredibly poorly to the point of being of negative value for D (which is why Gardiner always had great advanced stats). Watch team "A" lose the puck in the opposing zone with the players on both sides being tired. One player changes on team A - the #1 D comes on the ice. The opposing team now with the puck changes most, if not all of their players, including having McDavid and Drai hop on the ice. Team A gets pounded for the next 30 seconds. This is not the #1 D's fault at all - it would be far worse without him on the ice. This kind of thing happens over and over again and results in statistics that are not at all indicative of what people think they are. It is completely situational. I have tracked over a dozen games meticulously for whether advanced stats give value for D, including ones with Doughty and Keith were playing. The reality is that they are completely misleading. NHL players already know simply based on who advanced stats numbers claim are great and bad that the numbers are a joke and they are.

You don't need stats to see Risto is atrocious defensively lol, he might be one of the stupidest defensemen I've seen in a long time. People seem to confuse playing a lot of minutes with being good at playing those minutes, especially on bad teams with limited options, and especially if the D in question is tall.

 

[biotk]

You don't need stats to see Risto is atrocious defensively lol, he might be one of the stupidest defensemen I've seen in a long time.

When you express stupid opinions you make yourself look stupid.

 

[is the answer jesus]

Did Dermott takes positive steps in his development? Yes. He played well in top-4 and top-pairing roles. Well enough that the Leafs' did fine with Muzzin, Rielly and Ceci out. He also took on more and more PK duties and did well there as well.

Do the numbers reflect that? I don't care as the numbers are completely useless, which is why NHL players intuitively know that the advanced stats numbers are a joke.

Dermott is not a strong offensive producer. He is good defensively and extremely good in transition and preventing zone entries.

I never said that he was a diamond in the rough. I said that he has not regressed. Which he hasn't. He developed nicely this year after being stagnant last year and starting this season with an injury (the exact opposite of what advanced stats would indicate).

If he's anywhere near as effective as you claim in a top 4 role then it sounds like a player the Leafs desperately need to keep. You need to make sure the rest of your fellow Leafs fans get that memo.

 

[biotk]

If he's anywhere near as effective as you claim in a top 4 role then it sounds like a player the Leafs desperately need to keep. You need to make sure the rest of your fellow Leafs fans get that memo.

It is a big fan base. Most Leafs' fans want to keep him. Personally, I only want the Leafs' to keep him if the team has gotten over their absurd compulsion to need LHD - RHD pairs. If they haven't then both Sandin and Dermott should be traded to teams that will not block their development.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Leafs need RHD but not Risto, he's exactly like what they have and the opposite of what they need

 

[biotk]

Leafs need RHD but not Risto, he's exactly like what they have and the opposite of what they need

For better and worse, Risto is the exact opposite of what the Leafs' have.