Speculation: Riley Sheahan trade candidate?

[Empoleon8771]

Sheahan has had an absolutely fantastic bounce back season after a horrid 2016-2017, he's currently at 10 goals and 28 points in 73 games and has been a .5 PPG player for the last 55 games. This is all while he's eating huge defensive minutes, playing excellent defensively and killing penalties.

With his play this year, he's likely looking at something around $3-$3.5 million a year with pretty decent term as a RFA this summer. However, the Penguins may not want to pay him that much, since they have Brassard as their 3C for next year. Do you think Sheahan may be a candidate to be traded, and what teams may want him to be their 3C? In terms of comparables, you're probably looking at a return similar to Eller or Shaw for Sheahan.

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[Flames Fanatic]

Less than 30 points gets $3-3.5 million these days? Sheesh. Defensive play goes far, but that's still a big jump.

Not a perfect example, but Capfriendly's comparable tool suggests not so much:

CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Ferland might not be an awful comparison, signed a two year deal last year at $1.75 million after a 15 goal, 25 point season.

 

[Go Wings]

Sheahan has had an absolutely fantastic bounce back season after a horrid 2016-2017, he's currently at 10 goals and 28 points in 73 games and has been a .5 PPG player for the last 55 games. This is all while he's eating huge defensive minutes, playing excellent defensively and killing penalties.

With his play this year, he's likely looking at something around $3-$3.5 million a year with pretty decent term as a RFA this summer. However, the Penguins may not want to pay him that much, since they have Brassard as their 3C for next year. Do you think Sheahan may be a candidate to be traded, and what teams may want him to be their 3C? In terms of comparables, you're probably looking at a return similar to Eller or Shaw for Sheahan.

You seriously think he is worth 2 2nd round picks cause he had a decent season? He is a 25-30 point player. Teams overpaid for Shaw and Eller I doubt they will for Sheahan.

PS as a Wings fan we are still glad to be rid of him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Less than 30 points gets $3-3.5 million these days? Sheesh.

Not a perfect example, but Capfriendly's comparable tool suggests not so much:

CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

A. He's at 28 points with 8 games left on the year. He also has 28 points in 65 games with the Penguins.
B. The issue with that link is that you're comparing non-comparable players to Sheahan. Guys like Zucker, Wilson and Baertschi aren't comparable at all for Sheahan. The guys that are comparable for Sheahan are Eller (4 years at $3.5 million after having 26 points in 77 games), Shaw (6 years at $3.9 million after having 34 points in 78 games), Haula (3 years at $2.75 million after having 26 points in 72 games), Eakin (4 years at $3.85 million after having 35 points in 82 games) and Sutter (2 years at $3.3 million after having 26 points in 81 games). Defensive 3Cs who put up between 25 and 35 points get paid big bucks.

I mean, I really hope you're right, because I want the Penguins to retain Sheahan. I'm just not confident in him getting less than someone like Sutter.

You seriously think he is worth 2 2nd round picks cause he had a decent season? He is a 25-30 point player. Teams overpaid for Shaw and Eller I doubt they will for Sheahan.

PS as a Wings fan we are still glad to be rid of him.

I don't know if he's worth 2 2nds, but 25-35 point defensive 3Cs constantly bring back good returns. Just because you call the payments for Eller and Shaw bad doesn't mean GMs agree with you. You constantly see teams overpaying for guys like Sheahan. Look at the Eller and Shaw trades. Look at the Sutter to Vancouver trade. Vancouver legitimately thought Sutter was a 2C after he put up 33 points in 80 games with the Penguins. Look at guys like Henrique, he's bringing back Vatanen in a trade while Henrique doesn't usually produce much more than 40 points a season usually.

 

[wej20]

I'd be shocked if he gets over $2.5 million, he's been good this year but was pretty bad the year before.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd be shocked if he gets over $2.5 million, he's been good this year but was pretty bad the year before.

I feel like if that's all he wanted, he would have signed by now. Yeah, he was horrendous in 2016-2017, but I'm pretty sure arbitrators don't look at past seasons beyond this year in their hearings. Look at Schultz last year, he was run out of Edmonton and signed a $5.5 million AAV deal 15 months later.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I feel like if that's all he wanted, he would have signed by now. Yeah, he was horrendous in 2016-2017, but I'm pretty sure arbitrators don't look at past seasons beyond this year in their hearings. Look at Schultz last year, he was run out of Edmonton and signed a $5.5 million AAV deal 15 months later.

I think the difference between the Sheahan situation and the Schultz situation is Schultz re-established himself last year as a legitimate point producing defenseman, thus deserving of a raise. Sheahan's been great for the Pens, but in his case it's more like he's proving he should be paid what he currently is. Without this improvement, he's probably closer to a $1.5 million player.

I think Sheahan will re-sign at a similar amount as he's making now, but with a bit of term (ie. around $2.5 million per year for 3 years). Being an RFA, I don't think he's got the leverage or recent track record to ask for anything in the $3.5 million range.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the difference between the Sheahan situation and the Schultz situation is Schultz re-established himself last year as a legitimate point producing defenseman, thus deserving of a raise. Sheahan's been great for the Pens, but in his case it's more like he's proving he should be paid what he currently is. Without this improvement, he's probably closer to a $1.5 million player.

I think Sheahan will re-sign at a similar amount as he's making now, but with a bit of term (ie. around $2.5 million per year for 3 years). Being an RFA, I don't think he's got the leverage or recent track record to ask for anything in the $3.5 million range.

I really hope you're right, but then you can look at guys like Sutter and Eller who got crazy contracts after having worse seasons than Sheahan had and get concerned. I do think reputation is a factor here, Brock Nelson got $2.5 million after having about 40 points in a season, but Eller got $3.5 million after having about 25 points in a season. I'm hoping he gets at most the Haula contract (3 years at $2.75 million), but I'm concerned he'll hold out to arbitration and get something close to Eller or Sutter. It's not that I don't think he'd be worth that money, the Penguins just can't afford it.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I really hope you're right, but then you can look at guys like Sutter and Eller who got crazy contracts after having worse seasons than Sheahan had and get concerned. I do think reputation is a factor here, Brock Nelson got $2.5 million after having about 40 points in a season, but Eller got $3.5 million after having about 25 points in a season. I'm hoping he gets at most the Haula contract (3 years at $2.75 million), but I'm concerned he'll hold out to arbitration and get something close to Eller or Sutter. It's not that I don't think he'd be worth that money, the Penguins just can't afford it.

I think some of those deals are based on what the club signing them believes their upside is. Eller's deal was probably in the hope he'd take the next step and be a 40-point guy to go along with his good defense. Similarly, Vancouver saw Sutter scoring 20 goals on the Pens' third line and figured he'd improve on that given top six minutes in Vancouver.

In comparison, I think teams (Pens included) see Sheahan and believe what you see is about what you'll always get. A guy who is responsible defensively and can chip in anywhere from 25-30 points. I don't think Sheahan's seen as having the upside at this point to justify overpaying him in hopes he reaches said upside.

IMO, it'll be similar to Guentzel's next contract versus Sheary's one he just signed. Even if Guentzel only produces around 50 points in his contract year, he'll likely get a lot more than Sheary did this past contract because his upside is seen as more.

Note: That's not to say those teams were correct in their belief. The Sutter deal is a joke. But I think that's the thought process behind those guys being overpaid for what they produce, while Sheahan probably isn't seen as having that sort of room to grow and will be paid like a player who produces 25-30 points typically gets paid.

 

[Go Wings]

A. He's at 28 points with 8 games left on the year. He also has 28 points in 65 games with the Penguins.
B. The issue with that link is that you're comparing non-comparable players to Sheahan. Guys like Zucker, Wilson and Baertschi aren't comparable at all for Sheahan. The guys that are comparable for Sheahan are Eller (4 years at $3.5 million after having 26 points in 77 games), Shaw (6 years at $3.9 million after having 34 points in 78 games), Haula (3 years at $2.75 million after having 26 points in 72 games), Eakin (4 years at $3.85 million after having 35 points in 82 games) and Sutter (2 years at $3.3 million after having 26 points in 81 games). Defensive 3Cs who put up between 25 and 35 points get paid big bucks.

I mean, I really hope you're right, because I want the Penguins to retain Sheahan. I'm just not confident in him getting less than someone like Sutter.



I don't know if he's worth 2 2nds, but 25-35 point defensive 3Cs constantly bring back good returns. Just because you call the payments for Eller and Shaw bad doesn't mean GMs agree with you. You constantly see teams overpaying for guys like Sheahan. Look at the Eller and Shaw trades. Look at the Sutter to Vancouver trade. Vancouver legitimately thought Sutter was a 2C after he put up 33 points in 80 games with the Penguins. Look at guys like Henrique, he's bringing back Vatanen in a trade while Henrique doesn't usually produce much more than 40 points a season usually.

Henrique is not a third line center and he is far more talented than Sheahan will ever be so do not use him as a comparison. Sheahan produced decently on Pittsburgh but there isn't much evidence he will produce on a crappy team as his slide with Detroit indicated. I would say he is worth a 3rd made a late 2nd and that's it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Henrique is not a third line center and he is far more talented than Sheahan will ever be so do not use him as a comparison. Sheahan produced decently on Pittsburgh but there isn't much evidence he will produce on a crappy team as his slide with Detroit indicated. I would say he is worth a 3rd made a late 2nd and that's it.

He was traded for a 3rd at the start of the year, how do you think his value hasn't increased at all? This just sounds biased, either that or you're really overrating draft picks.

I think some of those deals are based on what the club signing them believes their upside is. Eller's deal was probably in the hope he'd take the next step and be a 40-point guy to go along with his good defense. Similarly, Vancouver saw Sutter scoring 20 goals on the Pens' third line and figured he'd improve on that given top six minutes in Vancouver.

In comparison, I think teams (Pens included) see Sheahan and believe what you see is about what you'll always get. A guy who is responsible defensively and can chip in anywhere from 25-30 points. I don't think Sheahan's seen as having the upside at this point to justify overpaying him in hopes he reaches said upside.

IMO, it'll be similar to Guentzel's next contract versus Sheary's one he just signed. Even if Guentzel only produces around 50 points in his contract year, he'll likely get a lot more than Sheary did this past contract because his upside is seen as more.

Note: That's not to say those teams were correct in their belief. The Sutter deal is a joke. But I think that's the thought process behind those guys being overpaid for what they produce, while Sheahan probably isn't seen as having that sort of room to grow and will be paid like a player who produces 25-30 points typically gets paid.

I think this is pretty fair and I hope you're right. Although I could see a team viewing Sheahan to have that upside, he's still pretty young after all and I don't know if his resume is worse than Sutter's resume when Vancouver went full stupid with him.

 

[vancityluongo]

Vancouver legitimately thought

Citing Jim Benning to attest to anything is like claiming that smart people once thought the sun revolved around the earth, so there must be some merit to it.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think this is pretty fair and I hope you're right. Although I could see a team viewing Sheahan to have that upside, he's still pretty young after all and I don't know if his resume is worse than Sutter's resume when Vancouver went full stupid with him.

You have to also keep in mind Sutter's contract expiring when he became a UFA, as well as what his contract was at the time it expired.

His last deal prior to being dealt was a 2-year deal worth $3.3 million per year, making him a UFA at the end of it. Sheahan's current deal is just a fraction over $2 million per year and he's a RFA when it expires. So not only was Sutter's previous amount larger, thus bumping up his new deal, but it was a UFA deal rather than a RFA deal.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'll be surprised if Sheahan cracks 3 mil per on his next deal.

 

[KIRK]

I'll be surprised if Sheahan cracks 3 mil per on his next deal.

I suspect that Pens will make his qualifying offer (I think about 2.2M if memory serves) and that Sheahan's agent will advise him to sign it and become a UFA after the 2018-2019 season.

 

[Baksfamous112]

*crickets*

 

[wej20]

I feel like if that's all he wanted, he would have signed by now. Yeah, he was horrendous in 2016-2017, but I'm pretty sure arbitrators don't look at past seasons beyond this year in their hearings. Look at Schultz last year, he was run out of Edmonton and signed a $5.5 million AAV deal 15 months later.

Sheahan's not the sort of player you sign during the season, especially given he's still an RFA. Schultz finished top 10 in dmen scoring. Sheahan's not going to finish in the top 100 in forward scoring. He's not going to even lead the league in scoring by guy's name Riley.

 

[rent free]

i'll give u a 3rd for him. he isn't worth that much

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

He was traded for a 3rd at the start of the year, how do you think his value hasn't increased at all? This just sounds biased, either that or you're really overrating draft picks.



I think this is pretty fair and I hope you're right. Although I could see a team viewing Sheahan to have that upside, he's still pretty young after all and I don't know if his resume is worse than Sutter's resume when Vancouver went full stupid with him.

Remember... gms trade contracts and fill needs... penguins dumped scott wilsons 1 way deal and got back a 5th round pick

So basically it was riley sheehan for the difference between a 3rd and a 5th and a cap dump... and this was a desperate team making the trade

If sheehans agent is trying to get him a raise his trade value will probably be nil and he might be looking for work in europe

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I suspect that Pens will make his qualifying offer (I think about 2.2M if memory serves) and that Sheahan's agent will advise him to sign it and become a UFA after the 2018-2019 season.

He makes enough no raise is necessary... but arbitration is very dangerous in these situations. If i was penguins i wouldnt qualify him.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

As much as I rag on Holland I'm so glad we don't have to deal with Riley anymore.

 

[KIRK]

He makes enough no raise is necessary

If the Penguins don't qualify Sheahan, then he becomes a UFA.

BUT, I didn't realize that the qualifying offer for a player making over 1M annually is 100% (no raise), so the offer would have to be 2.075M in Sheahan's case.

So, the Pens will make the qualifying offer, what he's making now, 2.075M, and I anticipate Sheahan's agent will encourage him to sign it and become a UFA after the 2018-2019 season.

 

[PensandCaps]

I let Sheahan walk at anything over 2.5. What he does is very replaceable. Anyone who gives him 3 mil will regret it. He's a fine player....not worth 3-3.5 mil.

 

[madinsomniac]

He will get a show me contract like Shultz and a dozen rfas in simular situations have done in the past after a partial season rebound... I don't think its a big deal. I highly doubt they trade him

 

[madinsomniac]

I think the difference between the Sheahan situation and the Schultz situation is Schultz re-established himself last year as a legitimate point producing defenseman, thus deserving of a raise. Sheahan's been great for the Pens, but in his case it's more like he's proving he should be paid what he currently is. Without this improvement, he's probably closer to a $1.5 million player.

I think Sheahan will re-sign at a similar amount as he's making now, but with a bit of term (ie. around $2.5 million per year for 3 years). Being an RFA, I don't think he's got the leverage or recent track record to ask for anything in the $3.5 million range.

Yes Shultz resigned on a show me deal then got paid on his deal this year