Rendez-Vous Lebreton Bid Fails

[bert]

Come on Bert....work your magic and put forward some numbers. I've asked you several times in response to your criticisms. If you can't do that, maybe it's a subject you should sit out.

I'm not picking and choosing which discussions to engage in Bert, i'm picking and choosing which posters to engage with. Like yourself here, you don't seem to really have much to contribute so i think i'm kind of done with you on the subject

Id love to hear an answer to the question you refuse to engage in a discussion in. Its relevant with my point. The way you operate around here is absolutely hilarious. Refusing to discuss arguments you are losing.

Going through old threads calling people out on innacuracies in statements from months ago. Even doing this in threads you didnt argue against the point you are mocking posters on. Cowardly behavior.

As for what you keep asking me to do. Breaking down the entire financial benefactors of having a downtown arena have already been done and you wont engage in that conversation. Why should I rehash points that are already made?

If you think long term staying in Kanata is a good decision for this franchise compared to moving to Lebreton you are flat out wrong.

 

[topshelf15]

For now. Amazon is one of the leaders in robotic tech in their distribution centers. They're quickly replacing a lot of jobs in their testing facilities. In 10 years, you could see them in most of their big warehouses.



If you're willing to drive, head outside the city. New developments a half hour or so outside the city will get you a bigger home and more land for your dollar.

Yep,moved out of Ottawa 15 or so years ago ...Just too damn expensive with land taxes,and you really dont get much for your dollar except them telling you its worth more...

 

[NorthCoast]

Kudos. Nice post. You put some effort into it for sure

I don't think the rate of return is that high myself but you know we're not privy to the numbers

The cash outlay is a given and can't be moved. The revenue and pace of it is variable and subject to all kinds of factors. This article is interesting for a couple of reasons

Reevely: Melnyk's right to be worried about financing LeBreton project with condos

The quote about being really wrong speaks to the risk associated with the revenue stream. And the bit at the end about the failure of the Terrace vision resulting in Melnyk getting the team in the first place is interesting. Note the OSEG Lansdowne deal is in trouble. Geat plans both. But the assumptions/revenues didn't materialize.

That article was written in April 2018 and references Melnyk voicing concerns in 2017. How long did he have concerns before voicing them publicly?

It's a complicated deal and the litigation should it go forward will be interesting.

Yes, looking forward to the litigation.

What I still have a hard time with is the Motive behind Ruddy. Why would he sabotage the Lebreton development? The only scenario I can think of is that he got the projections wrong at the beginning of the project and then, like Melnyk, realized only one project could be viable and chose 900.

But if you are asking which of the following is more plausible...1) that Ruddy got the market forecast wrong before getting involved in a 4 bil development deal vs 2) Melnyk getting cold feet on the investment/wanted a better deal/didn't do his own numbers right...then I have to go with #2.

I don't think it's fair to compare it with the OSEG deal. These developers have done pretty well in the past and usually when left to their own devices they find a way to make money. In Ruddy's own words, it appears like the problems with OSEG were top of mind during this negotiation to ensure the same scenario did not repeat.

 

[Relapsing]

... realized only one project could be viable and chose 900.

Melnyk getting cold feet on the investment/wanted a better deal/didn't do his own numbers right...then I have to go with #2.

Agreed - When it comes to 3 towers, vs the entirety of Lebreton Flats, does anyone really think that only 3 towers was the more financially viable option for Trinity? I sure don't.

 

[Qward]

Someone with more real estate knowledge please explain to me how building rental units affect the demand for condo units?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Yep,moved out of Ottawa 15 or so years ago ...Just too damn expensive with land taxes,and you really dont get much for your dollar except them telling you its worth more...

I'd be down to live more in the countryside but I work right in front of Parliament, I'm not exactly looking to spend hours commuting every day.

If I get out of the core in terms of employment, I'm so down to get out of Ottawa.

 

[Rysto]

Someone with more real estate knowledge please explain to me how building rental units affect the demand for condo units?

Many condo units are sold to individuals who want to rent them out. Additional rental units in the area would compete with these people and drive rents down.

I'm not defending Melnyk's overall argument, to be clear. I think that it's ridiculous to assume that a major real estate developer would not be involved in multiple projects at the same time. If Melnyk thought he wouldn't have to compete with other projects in the region when he signed on to the Lebreton project, he was nuts.

 

[coladin]

Someone with more real estate knowledge please explain to me how building rental units affect the demand for condo units?

Many towers are a mixture of condos for personal use, and others are bought with the intent to rent.

Personally, I would be against building in that location a tower of only rentals. But that’s just me. Why would I want to assume all the expenses , carryovers, turnovers, upkeep etc. when that location doesn’t require it. That location should sell well.

I know people who built a rental tower in Westboro and they decked it out with all the comforts of a condo unit. Rents are high, and they are doing ok in this crazy market, but I told him to cut back on the finer touches because he is wasting his money. He didn’t listen at first, but he is listening now.

I would be surprised if they went with rentals there when they can sell the condos and be done with it. People will rent them out anyways.

Edit: I guess I meandered a bit. Rentals would have no condo fees which would be attractive. Rising interest rates will also work against condos , upfront money as well.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Wouldn't the condo fees just be built into the rental price?

My experience with the cheaper condo rates in Québec has been that the association keeps asking for extra money.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I'd be down to live more in the countryside but I work right in front of Parliament, I'm not exactly looking to spend hours commuting every day.

If I get out of the core in terms of employment, I'm so down to get out of Ottawa.

I think that's a big reason why so many folks are waiting for the LRT to be all figured out and running. Property values are going to explode outside of the city when all is said and done.

**as long as the LRT actually works, that is.

 

[JD1]

Id love to hear an answer to the question you refuse to engage in a discussion in. Its relevant with my point. The way you operate around here is absolutely hilarious. Refusing to discuss arguments you are losing.

Going through old threads calling people out on innacuracies in statements from months ago. Even doing this in threads you didnt argue against the point you are mocking posters on. Cowardly behavior.

As for what you keep asking me to do. Breaking down the entire financial benefactors of having a downtown arena have already been done and you wont engage in that conversation. Why should I rehash points that are already made?

If you think long term staying in Kanata is a good decision for this franchise compared to moving to Lebreton you are flat out wrong.

Hi Bert! how's your day going?

I keep asking you to do something. you keep not doing it and in the same breath accuse me of cowardly behaviour. .

i've laid out pretty clearly what I think and why. All you seem able to do is repeat over and over what is "obvious"

i respect your opinions on hockey related matters but maybe as a result of your own obvious bias maybe you're not well suited for this particular discussion and maybe you should sit this one out.

 

[JD1]

Yes, looking forward to the litigation.

What I still have a hard time with is the Motive behind Ruddy. Why would he sabotage the Lebreton development? The only scenario I can think of is that he got the projections wrong at the beginning of the project and then, like Melnyk, realized only one project could be viable and chose 900.

But if you are asking which of the following is more plausible...1) that Ruddy got the market forecast wrong before getting involved in a 4 bil development deal vs 2) Melnyk getting cold feet on the investment/wanted a better deal/didn't do his own numbers right...then I have to go with #2.

I don't think it's fair to compare it with the OSEG deal. These developers have done pretty well in the past and usually when left to their own devices they find a way to make money. In Ruddy's own words, it appears like the problems with OSEG were top of mind during this negotiation to ensure the same scenario did not repeat.

Here's what it comes down to for me.

it's a 4B deal. let's call the arena 500M so it's a 3.5B deal. it'd take 14% margin on the 3.5b to fund the arena. Ruddy isn't in the arena funding business.

so if it is left to Melnyk on his own then he needs to fund the 500M arena out of his share profit. not only can that not be done, the expenses on the deal are out in front of the revenue.

it just doesn't add to me. if half the cost was publicly funded I could see the numbers getting close but short of that I don't see it.

 

[JD1]

Id love to hear an answer to the question you refuse to engage in a discussion in. Its relevant with my point. The way you operate around here is absolutely hilarious. Refusing to discuss arguments you are losing.

Going through old threads calling people out on innacuracies in statements from months ago. Even doing this in threads you didnt argue against the point you are mocking posters on. Cowardly behavior.

As for what you keep asking me to do. Breaking down the entire financial benefactors of having a downtown arena have already been done and you wont engage in that conversation. Why should I rehash points that are already made?

If you think long term staying in Kanata is a good decision for this franchise compared to moving to Lebreton you are flat out wrong.

I gotta say Bert

I've made several attempts to post numbers here and you've torn them up. there's been good discussion with folks like @NorthCoast ... back and forth on credibe thinking...exchanging ideas

you've not contributed anything other than express your unsubstantiated opinion and gone on to state it is obvious

I've asked you several times to put up some numbers on the deal highlighting how this all makes sense .... you've apparently chosen not to do that

it gets a little tiring that you don't. it's even more silly when you reference me as being cowardly.

I'll say again...maybe this isn't a discussion that you're well suited for.

 

[thinkwild]

Just looking at back of the napkin numbers, it had to be visible to all that funding the arena from development profits would really only be available to the one person developing it all, and then still have it come in on time and budget, and then still, would need significant access to loans along the way. It had to be clear that more gov’t investment is a necessity for the Ottawa Senators to go into debt for a half billion dollar arena while already hundreds of millions in debt and before a well tested LRT with more than just a phase 1 version 1.0 given how critical that will be to get the majority of fans to the games.

So given how the NCC, the Sens, so many fans have all weighed in on what a great opportunity a downtown arena for the Sens would be, Melnyk, like all NHL negotiations, will be building the pressure campaign for taxpayer support im sure. But with no real drop dead deadline hovering over them, I don’t see any incentive for rapid decision making.

 

[harrisb]

Did ruddy not sell a fairly large stake in 900 Albert thus making himself a minority partner? Thought I read that somewhere and if that’s the case I have a difficult time believing he would sabotage Lebreton for a small piece of 900.

 

[ottawah]

Did ruddy not sell a fairly large stake in 900 Albert thus making himself a minority partner? Thought I read that somewhere and if that’s the case I have a difficult time believing he would sabotage Lebreton for a small piece of 900.

Yes, he sold 2/3 of the development I believe for 30 million (?) in august 2017.

The crux of the argument from Melyk is that Ruddy sabotaged his own 2 billion dollar real estate deal to prop up his 133 million dollar deal (estimated cost for each project, that is gross not net).

I can't see how Melnyk can possibly spin this and make legal arguments, especially with Ruddy still wanting to continue. Whether Melnyk thinks both projects can work at the same time would seem to be inconsequential to Melnyks lawsuit as he says Ruddy was trying to sabotage Lebreton. It is what Ruddy believes. If Ruddy believes both could co-exist, and I think that it is evident he did, then he was not sabotaging the deal, and Melnyk has no claim.

 

[odhiambo]

I was driving on Colonel By road today, and passed the Carleton University parking lot that overlooks Dow's Lake, and thought this would be an ideal location for an arena!

If a downtown location is not possible, and since Melnyk is looking at other sites, would the Carleton University location be an ideal spot for a new arena? How would consumers view this location?

It is quite central and has good access to the highway (via Bronson). The O-train passes by there too.

Perhaps the Sens work out a deal with the University, whereby the University establishes a satellite campus in Kanata at CTC in exchange for this land.

Thoughts?

 

[BonkTastic]

I was driving on Colonel By road today, and passed the Carleton University parking lot that overlooks Dow's Lake, and thought this would be an ideal location for an arena!

If a downtown location is not possible, and since Melnyk is looking at other sites, would the Carleton University location be an ideal spot for a new arena? How would consumers view this location?

It is quite central and has good access to the highway (via Bronson). The O-train passes by there too.

Perhaps the Sens work out a deal with the University, whereby the University establishes a satellite campus in Kanata at CTC in exchange for this land.

Thoughts?

View attachment 225703

For a long list of reasons, this will never happen.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

Bronson is enough of a disaster as it is now, which is just one of several reasons that wouldn't work out. Would be a nice spot though. I think we'll be stuck in Kanata for a while.