Red Wings Cap Recapture Strategy: LTIR Loophole has its Limits

[Chance on Chance]

I actually think trading Datsyuk will be relatively easy. If I'm GM of a rebuilding team like New Jersey, that isn't contending yet, and isn't near the cap ceiling, if KH calls and offers me Datsuk and a 3rd for future considerations, I'm going to take it. I don't have to pay Datsyuk a cent in money, it doesn't impact my own cap management, and its only for a year. It's essentially a free 3rd round pick - why wouldn't you take it?

I agree that trading Howard may be harder, and we're going to have to eat a chunk of salary.

Because if I'm jersey and know theres only like 2-3 teams that can eat that contract I ask for more

 

[Flowah]

Because if I'm jersey and know theres only like 2-3 teams that can eat that contract I ask for more

Can't afford to be too greedy. It's essentially a free pick, and a decently early one at that. If any of the other 2-3 teams agree right away you just lost a decent free pick for no reason at all. And it's not like you could call those other teams and make a pact to not take the deal until more gets added.

 

[Reddwit]

In the case of Datsyuk, there's no precedent to suggest that it will be cheap, or at least I can't find an example. Every NHL GM knows exactly where the Wings are at. The know the Wings have RFA's in Sheahan, Dekeyser, Pulkkinen, Marchenko, and Mrazek. They probably anticipate that Wings would like to bring Helm back too. They know that the Wings have between $15 to $18 million to do this (depending on if the cap moves up to where most anticipate), while probably trying to upgrade. They know that Howard is going to need to be moved, so unless Howard goes first, the cost to move Datsyuk may be higher with that understanding.

I'd say Holland probably has to move Howard first to bring the cost of moving Datsyuk down, but that's just me.


In terms of moving Howard, I think dude said it best:

"Despite it being the most important position on a hockey team, goaltending is also the most difficult to project and get a handle on. This would make any GM wary of paying too much in trade for an inexperienced youngster with potential or even a proven veteran with a monster contract. Why pay through the nose for a large cap hit, when you can try your luck picking up the next Bishop or Rask or Quick or Bernier off the trade market for a relatively cheap cost?"


http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/trading-an-nhl-goalie-dont-expect-to-hit-a-home-run/

When you look at the post-cap goalie trades, you really can't find one that carries the same factors as Howard. I'd be interested to see what you think makes his situation anything but atypical.

Pronger is a great precedent for Datsyuk and Arizona actually had to pay something there. Beyond Pronger, it was a D for F dump swap and Philly got a pick out of the deal. It was a win for Philly value wise and a huge win for them cap wise.

As for Howard, no one is saying it's going to be easy, but saying that trading him in conjunction with Datsyuk is going to push us to the point where it obliterates our trade assets is hyperbolic drama. We aren't trading first round picks, great prospects, Tatars, Nyquists, etc to move either of these guys.

Worst case scenario, we hold on to both and are still able to add an impact player or a cap-adding trade because of the cap increase and supplementing the likes of Q and Helm with cheap ELC guys.

 

[Reddwit]

Because if I'm jersey and know theres only like 2-3 teams that can eat that contract I ask for more

6 teams had enough cap space to add Datsyuk at the end of this season, when cap totals are fully meted out. Take back a small cap dump and the number of teams only grows. Retain some salary and the number only grows.

And again, worst case scenario, you keep him. You can still sign a $6.5M Okposo (for example), re-sign all your RFAs, and promote the necessary young kids full time and be cap compliant at all times.

 

[avssuc]

I actually think trading Datsyuk will be relatively easy. If I'm GM of a rebuilding team like New Jersey, that isn't contending yet, and isn't near the cap ceiling, if KH calls and offers me Datsuk and a 3rd for future considerations, I'm going to take it. I don't have to pay Datsyuk a cent in money, it doesn't impact my own cap management, and its only for a year. It's essentially a free 3rd round pick - why wouldn't you take it?

I agree that trading Howard may be harder, and we're going to have to eat a chunk of salary.

That leaves the Wings without 2nd and 3rd round picks this year, if you're talking 2016, and according to General Fanager. Plus, a 3rd is what I'd consider high. I might be a bit stingy though.

If it was a 2017 pick, the Wings have both their own, and the Leafs picks in the 3rd. Depending on how this summer situation works out, there's a possibility that the Wings pick won't be too far off from the Leafs. Do you really think a high 3rd rounder is worth clearing the cap space?

'If' it's space needed to keep the youngsters, I'm all for it. 'If' it's space wanted for Helm, Stamkos, or anyone that's not a top 4 D, I'm not feeling it.


http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/detroit-red-wings

 

[HockeyinHD]

I actually think trading Datsyuk will be relatively easy.

Agree. The Pronger trade was him and Grossman (garbage) for Gagner (garbage) and a conditional pick in '16. I think I read somewhere that a 3 or a 4 in '17 was going back to Philly in the deal, but I'm not sure.

If there's a team looking to do the sneaky-cheap thing, a contract like Datsyuk's has real value to them since IIRC they can suspend him for not reporting, not have to pay the contract off, but get to hold the cap hit.

I have no idea how the team could trade Howard. Maybe go for the combo meal and trade them both to Arizona, throwing in a pick or something.

 

[avssuc]

Pronger is a great precedent for Datsyuk and Arizona actually had to pay something there. Beyond Pronger, it was a D for F dump swap and Philly got a pick out of the deal. It was a win for Philly value wise and a huge win for them cap wise.

"The Philadelphia Flyers traded Pronger's contract, along with defenceman Nicklas Grossmann, to the Arizona Coyotes for forward Sam Gagner and a conditional fourth round draft choice in 2016 or a third round draft choice in 2017."

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/27/coyotes-add-nhl-employee-chris-prongers-contract-defenceman-for-sam-gagner

Gagner couldn't play center at a time when the Yotes needed one, he was coming up on UFA and wouldn't have signed back (in all reality), and he's a perennial minus player. The move made it possible for the Yotes to replace him with a natural center in Boyd Gordon (wins draws, works the PK, and is a good locker room guy for the younger players), and it opened up more space for Duclair and Domi to grab top mins. The Yotes were dumping him and his $3 million cap hit, so I'm not sure it was really a win for the Flyers. Dude had 16 points over 53 games. Gordon had 4 points over 65, but played his role, one that Gagner could have never filled.

Plus, the Yotes picked up Grossmann and his $3 million in cap. A big body that can defend and log mins, with a UFA on the horizon, so it helped fill a hole in the short term. Since the Yotes have one of the best prospect pools in the league, they could afford the conditional pick to fill some holes, reach the floor, and look to the future.

So in terms of the Wings, this seems like a bunch of moving parts. What teams are in financial distress and looking to reach the floor? $7.5 mil is a large chunk, maybe too big for some, and that means retained $$$ for the Wings, or an increase on return. Plus, as stated, the Yotes were able to plug guys into their lineup that were able to help a team in transition, guys with no long-term commitments.

I get your point, and I can see how we could view the similarities, but the question becomes:

What teams are out there looking strictly for a huge cap hit?

The 'Cui bono' factor looms large. I'm just not that optimistic here, but I do see the small similarity in what you cited.

 

[avssuc]

6 teams had enough cap space to add Datsyuk at the end of this season, when cap totals are fully meted out. Take back a small cap dump and the number of teams only grows. Retain some salary and the number only grows.

And again, worst case scenario, you keep him. You can still sign a $6.5M Okposo (for example), re-sign all your RFAs, and promote the necessary young kids full time and be cap compliant at all times.

With Datsyuk on the books, that leaves the Wings with $13-$16 million in cap space (I was wrong on my first set of numbers earlier in the thread), depending on how much the cap goes up. Franzen and his cap still counts until the season begins, so they can only go over by 10%.

Let's say the cap goes up $3 million, Datsyuk can't be moved, and the Wings have $16 to spend.

I don't like the Okposo signing, more because of the state of our defense, but if that makes Holland trade some of our prospects to grab a top 4, I'm all for it.

-Okposo takes the Wings offer and signs for $6.5 in cap space
-Pricing Sheahan is difficult, but let's say $2.5
-Pricing Dekeyser is even more difficult given his known value to the team and current salary. I'd say he's over $3 (even though it's a RFA deal), but let's say he gets $2.7
-Pricing Marchenko, I'd say (or hope, because we all know Russians are a different breed) $2
-Pulkkinen should get what Jurco got $.9
-Mrazek is anybodies guess. $3, $3.5? Let's say $3 for the sake of the argument

That's $17.6 added to $57,701,209 currently on the books. Grand total =75,301,209 ($71.4 being the current cap). All this counts Franzen against the cap, and it all contains my very novice spit-balling on the Wings RFA's... so I guess it's doable (given the 10% exemption). Problem is, how do you grab the help on D? That will most likely come with a significant cap hit. Then you need to unload one of the albatrosses, Pav or Jimmy. Do you then significantly overpay to make those moves, or do you say "we like our team"?

 

[avssuc]

Agree. The Pronger trade was him and Grossman (garbage) for Gagner (garbage) and a conditional pick in '16. I think I read somewhere that a 3 or a 4 in '17 was going back to Philly in the deal, but I'm not sure.

If there's a team looking to do the sneaky-cheap thing, a contract like Datsyuk's has real value to them since IIRC they can suspend him for not reporting, not have to pay the contract off, but get to hold the cap hit.

I have no idea how the team could trade Howard. Maybe go for the combo meal and trade them both to Arizona, throwing in a pick or something.

Does Datsyuk waive his NTC if he thinks this is a possibility? Is there a way for him to safeguard against this when he waives his NTC clause?

 

[waltdetroit]

The Wings are essentially trading just the Cap Hit if Dats retires. No one gets paid for the contract...just the paper cap hit

 

[MVPete96]

With Datsyuk on the books, that leaves the Wings with $13-$16 million in cap space (I was wrong on my first set of numbers earlier in the thread), depending on how much the cap goes up. Franzen and his cap still counts until the season begins, so they can only go over by 10%.

Let's say the cap goes up $3 million, Datsyuk can't be moved, and the Wings have $16 to spend.

I don't like the Okposo signing, more because of the state of our defense, but if that makes Holland trade some of our prospects to grab a top 4, I'm all for it.

-Okposo takes the Wings offer and signs for $6.5 in cap space
-Pricing Sheahan is difficult, but let's say $2.5
-Pricing Dekeyser is even more difficult given his known value to the team and current salary. I'd say he's over $3 (even though it's a RFA deal), but let's say he gets $2.7
-Pricing Marchenko, I'd say (or hope, because we all know Russians are a different breed) $2
-Pulkkinen should get what Jurco got $.9
-Mrazek is anybodies guess. $3, $3.5? Let's say $3 for the sake of the argument

That's $17.6 added to $57,701,209 currently on the books. Grand total =75,301,209 ($71.4 being the current cap). All this counts Franzen against the cap, and it all contains my very novice spit-balling on the Wings RFA's... so I guess it's doable (given the 10% exemption). Problem is, how do you grab the help on D? That will most likely come with a significant cap hit. Then you need to unload one of the albatrosses, Pav or Jimmy. Do you then significantly overpay to make those moves, or do you say "we like our team"?

dekeyser $4mm
shehan $1.5 mil
Mrazek $3.5mm
marchenko $1mm

 

[avssuc]

dekeyser $4mm
shehan $1.5 mil
Mrazek $3.5mm
marchenko $1mm

Lets just hope Babs and the Leafs dont offer any of the above ridiculous offer sheets.

 

[avssuc]

And i think Sheahan gets more based off of what Tatar and Nyquist got after their RFA deals.