Red Wings Cap Recapture Strategy: LTIR Loophole has its Limits

[avssuc]

Forgive me, and delete this thread, if this horse has been beaten to death, but I've wondered about the ramifications here for some time.

Is there a tangible solution out there? Will Kronwall stay productive and healthy enough to justify his contract? We've all seen the regression with Hank, so it's not too much of a stretch to think that his cap hit will look pretty bad in 2 years time.

I'm just curious to see what other folks think, and what solutions they might be able to justify moving forward.




http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/4/27/11505136/red-wings-cap-recapture-strategy-ltir-loophole-has-its-limits

Click to read more...

 

[BinCookin]

Article makes good points.

 

[avssuc]

Article makes good points.

I'm not a CBA guy, so I'm not sure whether it's all legit, but I agree at face value. I was hoping one of the CBA gurus would dissect this and stamp it, or point to where it needs work.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Yeah I had never really thought about those drawbacks. It's not quite the invincible strategy we had thought. Having to deal with this until 2022 is going to be a problem. Hopefully the league gives us another get out of jail free compliance buyout at some point...not that that's likely.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Both Z and Kronner can probably stay pretty effective for a few more years if they just get smaller roles.

 

[avssuc]

Both Z and Kronner can probably stay pretty effective for a few more years if they just get smaller roles.

I agree, especially with Kronwall, considering he will be 37 when his expires.

Hank though, his cap hit is almost double and takes him up to age 40. What can we reasonably expect out of him at that age? I believe that he can immediately thrive in a 3rd line position with PP time, but does his hit justify that (assuming he can hold up until Mule and Kronner are off the books). Plus, the logistics of building a winner with multiple bad contracts in tow (counting Big E) seems pretty daunting.

I don't hate Holland for this, simply because this sort of circumvention was brilliant back when it happened. I do wonder what is said behind closed doors when this topic come us though.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Both Z and Kronner can probably stay pretty effective for a few more years if they just get smaller roles.

Yeah Kronner has 3 years left, And most likely depending on what Holland does to up the D he can pretty much get 2nd pairing minutes and hopefully with Z depending on what happens if we can get Stamkos Z most likely will get 2nd line minutes and hopefully both will get smaller roles and hopefully both can still contribute.

 

[avssuc]

Yeah I had never really thought about those drawbacks. It's not quite the invincible strategy we had thought. Having to deal with this until 2022 is going to be a problem. Hopefully the league gives us another get out of jail free compliance buyout at some point...not that that's likely.

Well, I agree that the league should do something about this, because it's not just the Wings that are up against it. Thing is, what if the league governs more harshly... like closing the LTIR window?

IMO, the current retroactive punishment is heavy-handed, and more (like I mentioned above) would be absolutely savage. But I wouldn't put it past ole Gary to get even more draconian. I don't think it's a probability, I just think it's a small, outside possibility.

 

[InjuredChoker]

yeah, the stuff there is legit.

franzen and maybe franzen and kronwall could be manageable but that's it. they would still count against the cap in the offseason and one can only be 10% over the cap in the offseason.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Yeah I had never really thought about those drawbacks. It's not quite the invincible strategy we had thought. Having to deal with this until 2022 is going to be a problem. Hopefully the league gives us another get out of jail free compliance buyout at some point...not that that's likely.

not quite that long. kronwall's deal ends 2019 and franzen's the following season.

 

[avssuc]

Yeah Kronner has 3 years left, And most likely depending on what Holland does to up the D he can pretty much get 2nd pairing minutes and hopefully with Z depending on what happens if we can get Stamkos Z most likely will get 2nd line minutes and hopefully both will get smaller roles and hopefully both can still contribute.

That's the thing, how do you solidify the D with the contracts of Howard, Ericsson, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen, Datsyuk all creating a special sort of cap Hades?

Moving Pav's contract, one with no body attached, will cost the org a fair amount. Moving Howard will cost as well, just not as much. After moving all of the assets and picks necessary to clear room, what is left to acquire that piece on D that gives Kronner the proper role?

I'm not trying to be a negative Nancy, I just don't know how it can be done without mortgaging a large part of the future.

Edit: Forgot to add Weizerman

 

[avssuc]

not quite that long. kronwall's deal ends 2019 and franzen's the following season.

I think he may have been referencing a buyout scenario. A buyout/retirement with Z in the summer of 2019 still takes the penalty to the season of 20-21.

 

[HisNoodliness]

not quite that long. kronwall's deal ends 2019 and franzen's the following season.

Yeah, Zetterberg surviving as a serviceable player until 2019 is pretty integral to the fate of this team. If we don't have to put Z on LTIR until Kronwall retires for real we should be fine. I think he can definitely do well in a third line + PP role at least for now.

 

[avssuc]

Yeah, Zetterberg surviving as a serviceable player until 2019 is pretty integral to the fate of this team. If we don't have to put Z on LTIR until Kronwall retires for real we should be fine. I think he can definitely do well in a third line + PP role at least for now.

In a perfect world, yes, this works, and I pray that something like this can happen.

Unfortunately there are many variables that play in while we wait. Ericsson is still under contract in 2019, and while not bound by the same restraints due to his contract structure, if he refuses to retire, that's certainly a thorn in the side of the club. With $1.6 million still locked into the cap until 20-21 (with a peak of $2.5 mil in 17-18) from the Weiss buyout, the dead money numbers keep adding up.

I know there's no simple answer here, just a bunch of spit-balling and prayer. I think the moves made in the next couple months will give us a little better understanding on the cost, and the direction we might see moving forward.

 

[obey86]

They gotta dump at minimum one of their crappy contracts.

 

[Reddwit]

The LTIR route has always been an imperfect route. That's why Philly traded Pronger.

I think these problems are overblown. The Wings have operated in gluttonous fashion for years now, heaping on extra free agent veterans just because they could and avoiding making cap-slendering trades because trades involve risk. Its not like they're making use of all their NHL-capable prospects or making shrewd trades for more cap-friendly players...

First,you make peace with the mid/late 30 year olds and recognize that, absent a Pronger-to-Arizona move a few years from now, you're stuck with them. Try your best to prolong their careers, even it it means paying a #5 PP specialist $4.75M and a third line PP specialist $6M.

Second, you make every effort to move Howard and Ericsson now while they still have value, even if retention is required. You can eat $1M each in dead salary to move out those guys when the level they're performing at is usually executed by a guy making ~$2M.

Third - and this is the big one - you take more risks. You need to trust your youth (even just one prospect) to adequately perform. So instead of paying $3M to add Brad Richards or 3M to retain Helm, you play Pulkkinen and Jurco more while giving more minutes to Tatar and Nyquist. Instead of signing Quincey, you promote XO or Marchenko or beef up Smith's role. Is it a risk? Yes. Are mid-season trades allowed if you made a losing bet on a youngster? Yes.

The other risk is that instead of constantly going the UFA route to muscle up, you use this great resource called a trade. Yes, you might lose that trade. But its also another widely used route to address needs without having to add a player with a free agent price tag.

 

[Reddwit]

That's the thing, how do you solidify the D with the contracts of Howard, Ericsson, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen, Datsyuk all creating a special sort of cap Hades?

Moving Pav's contract, one with no body attached, will cost the org a fair amount. Moving Howard will cost as well, just not as much. After moving all of the assets and picks necessary to clear room, what is left to acquire that piece on D that gives Kronner the proper role?

I'm not trying to be a negative Nancy, I just don't know how it can be done without mortgaging a large part of the future.

Edit: Forgot to add Weizerman

There's really no precedent that suggests either of these things are going to cost that much. And Datsyuk is only a problem for a year. If he costs so much that there won't be anything left to acquire a D (along with Howard), which sounds pretty melodramatic, then he isn't being moved. Simple as that.

 

[avssuc]

There's really no precedent that suggests either of these things are going to cost that much. And Datsyuk is only a problem for a year. If he costs so much that there won't be anything left to acquire a D (along with Howard), which sounds pretty melodramatic, then he isn't being moved. Simple as that.

In the case of Datsyuk, there's no precedent to suggest that it will be cheap, or at least I can't find an example. Every NHL GM knows exactly where the Wings are at. The know the Wings have RFA's in Sheahan, Dekeyser, Pulkkinen, Marchenko, and Mrazek. They probably anticipate that Wings would like to bring Helm back too. They know that the Wings have between $15 to $18 million to do this (depending on if the cap moves up to where most anticipate), while probably trying to upgrade. They know that Howard is going to need to be moved, so unless Howard goes first, the cost to move Datsyuk may be higher with that understanding.

I'd say Holland probably has to move Howard first to bring the cost of moving Datsyuk down, but that's just me.


In terms of moving Howard, I think dude said it best:

"Despite it being the most important position on a hockey team, goaltending is also the most difficult to project and get a handle on. This would make any GM wary of paying too much in trade for an inexperienced youngster with potential or even a proven veteran with a monster contract. Why pay through the nose for a large cap hit, when you can try your luck picking up the next Bishop or Rask or Quick or Bernier off the trade market for a relatively cheap cost?"


http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/trading-an-nhl-goalie-dont-expect-to-hit-a-home-run/

When you look at the post-cap goalie trades, you really can't find one that carries the same factors as Howard. I'd be interested to see what you think makes his situation anything but atypical.

 

[avssuc]

The LTIR route has always been an imperfect route. That's why Philly traded Pronger.

I think these problems are overblown. The Wings have operated in gluttonous fashion for years now, heaping on extra free agent veterans just because they could and avoiding making cap-slendering trades because trades involve risk. Its not like they're making use of all their NHL-capable prospects or making shrewd trades for more cap-friendly players...

First,you make peace with the mid/late 30 year olds and recognize that, absent a Pronger-to-Arizona move a few years from now, you're stuck with them. Try your best to prolong their careers, even it it means paying a #5 PP specialist $4.75M and a third line PP specialist $6M.

Second, you make every effort to move Howard and Ericsson now while they still have value, even if retention is required. You can eat $1M each in dead salary to move out those guys when the level they're performing at is usually executed by a guy making ~$2M.

Third - and this is the big one - you take more risks. You need to trust your youth (even just one prospect) to adequately perform. So instead of paying $3M to add Brad Richards or 3M to retain Helm, you play Pulkkinen and Jurco more while giving more minutes to Tatar and Nyquist. Instead of signing Quincey, you promote XO or Marchenko or beef up Smith's role. Is it a risk? Yes. Are mid-season trades allowed if you made a losing bet on a youngster? Yes.

The other risk is that instead of constantly going the UFA route to muscle up, you use this great resource called a trade. Yes, you might lose that trade. But its also another widely used route to address needs without having to add a player with a free agent price tag.

I'd sign off on that. I think salary retention is pretty necessary in the two cases you mention.

 

[Mijatovic]

Cap Recapture Strategy? I'd prefer if we refer to it by its proper name.
CAP MANAGEMENT FAILURE

 

[Run the Jewels]

Yep, it's every bit as brutal as WIIM makes it out to be. I posted a Philly blog that pretty much covered all this a while back when they were dealing with the ramifications of Pronger's contract. Holland has loaded this roster with ballast that will weigh it down for at least 3 and probably 4 years. The hope is he'll retire right around the time those contacts start to come off the books. Hell, it's probably why he's trying to pretend maintaining status quo is a smart move. No one is buying retool on the fly anymore, it's pretty much just him hanging on for dear life until his contract ends and he can retire.

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Yep, it's every bit as brutal as WIIM makes it out to be. I posted a Philly blog that pretty much covered all this a while back when they were dealing with the ramifications of Pronger's contract. Holland has loaded this roster with ballast that will weigh it down for at least 3 and probably 4 years. The hope is he'll retire right around the time those contacts start to come off the books. Hell, it's probably why he's trying to pretend maintaining status quo is a smart move. No one is buying retool on the fly anymore, it's pretty much just him hanging on for dear life until his contract ends and he can retire.

I can agree with this.

 

[TheMule93]

You reap what you sew

We tried to cheat the system with cap circumventing contracts and we will soon feel the consequences

 

[Mount Suribachi]

In the case of Datsyuk, there's no precedent to suggest that it will be cheap, or at least I can't find an example. Every NHL GM knows exactly where the Wings are at. The know the Wings have RFA's in Sheahan, Dekeyser, Pulkkinen, Marchenko, and Mrazek. They probably anticipate that Wings would like to bring Helm back too. They know that the Wings have between $15 to $18 million to do this (depending on if the cap moves up to where most anticipate), while probably trying to upgrade. They know that Howard is going to need to be moved, so unless Howard goes first, the cost to move Datsyuk may be higher with that understanding.

I'd say Holland probably has to move Howard first to bring the cost of moving Datsyuk down, but that's just me.


In terms of moving Howard, I think dude said it best:

"Despite it being the most important position on a hockey team, goaltending is also the most difficult to project and get a handle on. This would make any GM wary of paying too much in trade for an inexperienced youngster with potential or even a proven veteran with a monster contract. Why pay through the nose for a large cap hit, when you can try your luck picking up the next Bishop or Rask or Quick or Bernier off the trade market for a relatively cheap cost?"


http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/trading-an-nhl-goalie-dont-expect-to-hit-a-home-run/

When you look at the post-cap goalie trades, you really can't find one that carries the same factors as Howard. I'd be interested to see what you think makes his situation anything but atypical.

I actually think trading Datsyuk will be relatively easy. If I'm GM of a rebuilding team like New Jersey, that isn't contending yet, and isn't near the cap ceiling, if KH calls and offers me Datsuk and a 3rd for future considerations, I'm going to take it. I don't have to pay Datsyuk a cent in money, it doesn't impact my own cap management, and its only for a year. It's essentially a free 3rd round pick - why wouldn't you take it?

I agree that trading Howard may be harder, and we're going to have to eat a chunk of salary.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

The LTIR route has always been an imperfect route. That's why Philly traded Pronger.

I think these problems are overblown. The Wings have operated in gluttonous fashion for years now, heaping on extra free agent veterans just because they could and avoiding making cap-slendering trades because trades involve risk. Its not like they're making use of all their NHL-capable prospects or making shrewd trades for more cap-friendly players...

First,you make peace with the mid/late 30 year olds and recognize that, absent a Pronger-to-Arizona move a few years from now, you're stuck with them. Try your best to prolong their careers, even it it means paying a #5 PP specialist $4.75M and a third line PP specialist $6M.

Second, you make every effort to move Howard and Ericsson now while they still have value, even if retention is required. You can eat $1M each in dead salary to move out those guys when the level they're performing at is usually executed by a guy making ~$2M.

Third - and this is the big one - you take more risks. You need to trust your youth (even just one prospect) to adequately perform. So instead of paying $3M to add Brad Richards or 3M to retain Helm, you play Pulkkinen and Jurco more while giving more minutes to Tatar and Nyquist. Instead of signing Quincey, you promote XO or Marchenko or beef up Smith's role. Is it a risk? Yes. Are mid-season trades allowed if you made a losing bet on a youngster? Yes.

The other risk is that instead of constantly going the UFA route to muscle up, you use this great resource called a trade. Yes, you might lose that trade. But its also another widely used route to address needs without having to add a player with a free agent price tag.

This is perhaps my biggest beef with KH the last 5 years. He's hoarded a lot of half decent prospects, but hasn't leveraged their value properly.