Speculation: Red Wings assets to move up in the draft.

[Hatter of the Beach]

Detroit has two early second rounders, both likely to be in the 34-39 range. While a shotgun approach is good, I do think there will be some good fallers available in the mid teens, ala Barzal or Mantha like dropper.

Any fan’s team think their team would entertain the idea?

Nyquist and AA could also be available at the draft, especially if the Wings get a lottery pick, though I think at that point both players would be in lieu of one of the second rounders.

I wonder if Athanasiou signed + 34th overall would be enough to get a 12-15th pick.
Would love Veleno behind Larkin

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[Cor]

Hard to say where the Leafs will end up picking right now, but I could very well see them trading down, especially if Dubas takes over as GM. Last time Dubas and Hunter did the double trade down to get Dermott and Bracco. Worked well then, and I'm sure they'd consider doing so again.

Leafs last time traded 24 for 29 + 61 and then 29 for 34 + 68

So we could see say, 26 (currently) for 35 + 66

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

More likely we try to package something with the Vegas pick to move up. Just don't see us having three 1sts.

 

[4thline]

Detroit has two early second rounders, both likely to be in the 34-39 range. While a shotgun approach is good, I do think there will be some good fallers available in the mid teens, ala Barzal or Mantha like dropper.

Any fan’s team think their team would entertain the idea?

Speaking for a team @ 26 I would do 35+37 if Veleno fell if you wanted him. If you want into the top 20 I can't see it without the Knight's 1st and one of those 2nds

 

[4thline]

Hard to say where the Leafs will end up picking right now, but I could very well see them trading down, especially if Dubas takes over as GM. Last time Dubas and Hunter did the double trade down to get Dermott and Bracco. Worked well then, and I'm sure they'd consider doing so again.

Leafs last time traded 24 for 29 + 61 and then 29 for 34 + 68

So we could see say, 26 (currently) for 35 + 66

Too far for too little.

 

[Cor]

Too far for too little.

I mean, I'm comparing it to an actual trade down that has happened before.

 

[4thline]

I mean, I'm comparing it to an actual trade down that has happened before.

5 spots for 61st + 5 spots for 68th = 61st+68th for 10 spots
61st+68th for 10 spots =/= 66th for 9

2017 26 for 29+70
2016 18+79 for 22+36/ 26 for 28+87
2015 24 for 29+61 /28 for 33+ 72/ 29 for 34+68
2014 20+179 for 27+62 / 28 for 35+57

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I wonder what we could get if we did Vegas 2018 1st round pick #28+Either Detroit's or Ottawa's 2nd round pick #35 or #36+Nyquist/AA Should at least get a #15 overall pick if not higher for that depending who else is available.

 

[Cor]

5 spots for 61st + 5 spots for 68th = 61st+68th for 10 spots
61st+68th for 10 spots =/= 66th for 9

That's not how it works. You can't combine two trades like that.

The Leafs physically traded 29th for 34 + 68. Philadelphia didn't care about the other trade down the Leafs just did.

In this scenario, the Leafs would be traded 26 for 35 + 66 (picks are as of now, obviously may change come the draft)

The Leafs got 68th pick for dropping 5 spots, and here would get 66th pick for dropping 9 spots. So it's dropping 4 additional spots, but getting a pick 2 spots higher, so it works out for the most part.

Value wise, the Leafs could ask for 180 or a 7th next year from DET as well, but doubt that would be a sticking point.

 

[Cor]

I wonder what we could get if we did Vegas 2018 1st round pick #28+Either Detroit's or Ottawa's 2nd round pick #35 or #36+Nyquist/AA Should at least get a #15 overall pick if not higher for that depending who else is available.

Based on this (obviously outdated) http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

28 + 35 would total 505, which means an appropriate value would be the 13th overall pick. (without the team trading down losing value)

So obviously with an additional pick each round, values would change a bit, but using that package, you're looking at 13th-16th pick

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Based on this (obviously outdated) http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

28 + 35 would total 505, which means an appropriate value would be the 13th overall pick. (with the team trading down losing value)

So obviously with an additional pick each round, values would change a bit, but using that package, you're looking at 13th-16th pick

Thanks that's pretty much what i figured, Depending on who's available in that area it's something i can definitely see Detroit doing.

 

[4thline]

That's not how it works. You can't combine two trades like that.

The Leafs physically traded 29th for 34 + 68. Philadelphia didn't care about the other trade down the Leafs just did.

In this scenario, the Leafs would be traded 26 for 35 + 66 (picks are as of now, obviously may change come the draft)

The Leafs got 68th pick for dropping 5 spots, and here would get 66th pick for dropping 9 spots. So it's dropping 4 additional spots, but getting a pick 2 spots higher, so it works out for the most part.

Value wise, the Leafs could ask for 180 or a 7th next year from DET as well, but doubt that would be a sticking point.

Columbus might not have cared but the Leafs sure would have, you have to look at the full opportunity cost of the move. That sequence is bad value if they cut out Philly and deal directly with the Jackets. If 66 is the main piece being used to move up than the Knights 1st is the pick it's moving.

 

[Cor]

Thanks that's pretty much what i figured, Depending on who's available in that area it's something i can definitely see Detroit doing.

Joe Veleno is a guy I can see DET trading up for. He's a guy that's been falling a bit for some reason, despite being top 10 in QMJHL points, and comparable production to Zadina.

If DET can walk away with Adam Boqvist in the top 5, and trading up to get Veleno in the teens, I'd wager that's something overpaying a bit to get.

 

[Cor]

Columbus might not have cared but the Leafs sure would have, you have to look at the full opportunity cost of the move. That sequence is bad value if they cut out Philly and deal directly with the Jackets. If 66 is the main piece being used to move up than the Knights 1st is the pick it's moving.

The trades weren't related.

The Leafs were hoping to get Jacob Larsson at 29. When Anaheim took him at 27, they decided to trade down again.

It all can't be considered one move, because it wasn't. The Leafs traded down from 29 for 34 and 68, which is similar to what I am suggesting could happen.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Joe Veleno is a guy I can see DET trading up for. He's a guy that's been falling a bit for some reason, despite being top 10 in QMJHL points, and comparable production to Zadina.

If DET can walk away with Adam Boqvist in the top 5, and trading up to get Veleno in the teens, I'd wager that's something overpaying a bit to get.

Yep i'd be ecstatic if Detroit could walk away with both Boqvist and Veleno in the say top 13 it would be more then worth to move both the Vegas 1st and Ottawa 2nd for Veleno.

 

[4thline]

Based on this (obviously outdated) http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

28 + 35 would total 505, which means an appropriate value would be the 13th overall pick. (without the team trading down losing value)

So obviously with an additional pick each round, values would change a bit, but using that package, you're looking at 13th-16th pick

Thanks that's pretty much what i figured, Depending on who's available in that area it's something i can definitely see Detroit doing.

Here's the thing though, the last 4 drafts have had the following pick transactions in the later half of the 1st round
2017 26 for 29+70
2016 18+79 for 22+36/ 26 for 28+87
2015 24 for 29+61 /28 for 33+ 72/ 29 for 34+68
2014 20+179 for 27+62 / 28 for 35+57

with the following valuations based on that chart
2017- 297 vs (275+173)448 = -151
2016-(379+156) 535 vs (324+215)539 =-4
2015A 308 vs (275+175)450 =-142
2015B 283 vs(237+169)406 =-123
2015C 275 vs(228+176)404= -129
2014A (350+68)418 vs (291+176)467 =-49
2014B 283 vs (222+176)398 =-115

I won't comment on whether the model's wrong or GM's are, but it's clear that moving up generally comes at a pretty significant premium.

@Cor it's funny you mention the intent for Larsson as justification as why the moves can't be aggregated, because it's aslo the reason why 66 to move up 9 spots is so much worse than 68 to move up 5. 4 more teams introduces a huge amount more risk. There's no way they would have dropped from 24 to 34 for 68 alone, and that's what you're proposing

 

[Cor]

The chart (I’m hoping to find a more updated one) is meant to show value of the individual draft picks.

Generally, the team trading up would give up value to the team trading down, in exchange for being able to get the player they want.

Judging by the numbers that you calculated, it doesn’t necessarily mean the GM’s or chart is wrong, but it’s possible NHL managements have deemed that 150 points is roughly the value needed for a team trading down to deem its worth it.

 

[405Exit]

Detroit has two early second rounders, both likely to be in the 34-39 range. While a shotgun approach is good, I do think there will be some good fallers available in the mid teens, ala Barzal or Mantha like dropper.

Any fan’s team think their team would entertain the idea?

Nyquist and AA could also be available at the draft, especially if the Wings get a lottery pick, though I think at that point both players would be in lieu of one of the second rounders.

I wonder if Athanasiou signed + 34th overall would be enough to get a 12-15th pick.
Would love Veleno behind Larkin

Have no problem trading Ducks first if you take some salary off our books. We need money for a chance at JVR signing with the club. Can you take back salary?

Package our first to move up in the draft.

 

[4thline]

Judging by the numbers that you calculated, it doesn’t necessarily mean the GM’s or chart is wrong, but it’s possible NHL managements have deemed that 150 points is roughly the value needed for a team trading down to deem its worth it.

Call it a 120-150 point premium

29 (275)+35(222) = 347-377 = 17th-21st
35 (222) +37 (213)= 315-285 = 23rd -28th

Speaking for a team @ 26 I would do 35+37 if Veleno fell if you wanted him. If you want into the top 20 I can't see it without the Knight's 1st and one of those 2nds

 

[Lays]

Any interest in one of the Rangers 1sts?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Nothing you're offering is getting you close to a Top 15 pick in the draft.


#34 + #39 might get you up to around 25th but it's not getting you higher then that. And the book is out on AA this season. He's got speed not much else to his game and teams know this. Throw in the fact he's been a massive pain in the ass to sign for the Wings as well and he really doesn't have much value.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Based on this (obviously outdated) http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

28 + 35 would total 505, which means an appropriate value would be the 13th overall pick. (without the team trading down losing value)

So obviously with an additional pick each round, values would change a bit, but using that package, you're looking at 13th-16th pick

Nobody's dropping 15 picks to add an early 2nd.

 

[TheNewEra]

39 plus AA for Pittsburghs first and burrows?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

39 plus AA for Pittsburghs first and burrows?

At the moment Detroit has 35 and 36. AA is way too much to move up 5-10 picks.

 

[TheNewEra]

At the moment Detroit has 35 and 36. AA is way too much to move up 5-10 picks.

Fair enough, I thought I saw 39 somewhere, also thought AA was on the outs in Detroit

Guess I was wrong on both