RD Timothy Liljegren - Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) II

[Keep Sorokin Me Babe]

#truth Let the people drool my friend. Envy is not a bad thing, as long as you're not the envious one. No one would bat an eye if Timothy was drafted at #3. People might question the pick, but the "upside argument" would overwhelmingly justify everything.

I'm sensing a lot of insecurity from other fans due to adding Liljegren to the Nylander/Matthews/Marner core upfront, like people praying that the kid will bust . It's quite delightful really

 

[Mitchell Matthews]

Some of these posters either live very sad lives or don't watch hockey. Fact is his ceiling is very high, and even if he only becomes as good as his floor, he was still the right pick at 17. But of course some people can't acknowledge that and it's just another case of Leafs fans overrating their prospects. Take a look at comments/reports about him as recently as earlier this year before he was drafted from other fans/analysts. Hint: their comments are not that much different from those of Leafs fans.

 

[LeafChief]

I'm sensing a lot of insecurity from other fans due to adding Liljegren to the Nylander/Matthews/Marner core upfront, like people praying that the kid will bust . It's quite delightful really

That's embarrassing.

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

I'm sensing a lot of insecurity from other fans due to adding Liljegren to the Nylander/Matthews/Marner core upfront, like people praying that the kid will bust . It's quite delightful really

No kidding. Really though, the last player I wanted this badly was Drew Doughty and we were gifted with Luke Schenn. I was so angry. But 9 years later, I got my Drew Doughty. We got Timmmmeehhh!!!!

 

[biotk]

I thought that Marner's hockey IQ was significantly diminished when he was recovering from mono. He didn't look like the same player at all. He was frequently frustrating me afterwards and I would have to remind myself why. Passes to nowhere. Dumb plays. Looked lazy at times.

Pre-mono over 56 games he was on a 22 goal 70 point pace.
Post-mono (including playoffs) over 27 games he was on 15 goal 51 point pace. (not counting the playoffs over 21 games he was still on a 51 point pace, but with 16 goals).

 

[Mitchell Matthews]

Also its funny that everyone says it isn't a surprise Liljegren fell (citing Mackenzie's mock), but reading through draft threads the same people keep saying "(team) is definitely taking Liljegren next" or "wow Liljegren keeps falling" for every pick outside the top 10. In hindsight these threads are all great reads.

 

[Blender]

Also its funny that everyone says it isn't a surprise Liljegren fell (citing Mackenzie's mock), but reading through draft threads the same people keep saying "(team) is definitely taking Liljegren next" or "wow Liljegren keeps falling" for every pick outside the top 10. In hindsight these threads are all great reads.

It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone that he went anywhere between 10-20. He has enough upside to justify the higher spot, and enough downside to understand the lower spot.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

If I was a betting man I'd say Liljegren while healthy will return to form.

I said it in the Liljegren threads well before he was drafted; it's amazing how many people were brushing the Mono aside. If it were a shoulder or knee injury, there would be more acceptance as to why he dropped. He has holes in his game, so does every other prospect. The difference is Liljegren has few holes and has the tools of a top pairing defender. There's a reason why media outlets were wondering whether he or Patrick would go first in this class not too long ago.

 

[93LEAFS]

So the scouts of 16 different teams passed over him because one scouting service criticized him?

I count only 14, Vegas passed on him 3 times. It's not like people are saying he should have gone one. I personally had him at 10. His issue was forcing plays while getting limited ice time on a team battling relegation while coming back from an illness. That is always going to be a tough situation for a prospect. Off the top of my head, all of Couturier, Colin White and Logan Couture were drafted lower than they should have been due to contracting mono in their draft season.

 

[TheBigThree]

Just remember how much matthews was bashed all year just because he's on the leafs, same trend here already in the liljegren thread so no surprises. We absolutely stole an elite player in the draft, even if he ends up being average he's still worth a lot because he's a RHD with elite skating, zone entries and shooting at 18 years old.
People are also forgetting the leafs have the best trainers and babcock, babcock made hunwick above average so what do you think his impact will be on a young kid with massive upside?
But please keep complaining and whining about another leafs pick. Rielly and nylander were a steal for us too and everyone that's not a leafs fan still talks trash about them both. Nylander less now that he had 61 pts and won iihf mens MVP.

 

[snipes]

Great value at 17. There's some risk with him, but huge upside as well. Hard to not like this pick if you're a Leafs fan.

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

Subban, McD, Weber, Burns, Josi, Letang, Keith, Karlsson, Byfuglien, Klingberg, Fowler, Skjei, Faulk, Barrie, Slavin, Parayko.

These same scouting agencies and pro-scouts let all these gems fall right through their hands. For some, multiple times. Why are we using "team x or x # of teams let him fall through" as a valid argument? Since when are scouts and teams perfect at drafting or even recognising talent? How often do we see a guy drop in the draft ONLY because of questionable IQ? Almost never. We usually see players drop because of injury concerns, or attitude issues, or work ethic problems or physical limitations in either speed or size.

Timothy is a almost a full year behind in development compared to his peers because of his mono and injuries. He wasn't the shiny toy anymore and all it takes for a team is to fall in love with one guy before the draft. They don't prep for guys to fall in the draft and more times than not stick to their predetermined draft rankings. It's not rocket science to recognise why talent sometimes falls through. We've seen it with Fowler, Chychrun and now Liljegren. And if I'm not wrong, I believe all of them fell because of some magical reason (that no one knows) and low hockey IQ.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Also its funny that everyone says it isn't a surprise Liljegren fell (citing Mackenzie's mock), but reading through draft threads the same people keep saying "(team) is definitely taking Liljegren next" or "wow Liljegren keeps falling" for every pick outside the top 10. In hindsight these threads are all great reads.

There are many threads that involve the Leafs that are great reads in hindsight since Shanahan was hired. The Babcock threads when he was a free agent, how the Leafs were supposedly out of contention, how Buffalo was the better destination because they had a "brighter future" than the Leafs (not that Buffalo's future isn't bright, but the Leafs have leapfrogged them). Many Nylander vs threads against players that are so laughable now those threads get locked if you try to start them again to prove a point. Oh and the thread about who had the worst offense for 2016-17 season. I wonder if that guy who lost the bet ever actually put on his avatar.

There will be many more I'm sure.

 

[TheBigThree]

The real question is, how do we get him guaranteed minutes next year? I heard he doesn't even have a contract for next year so can the leafs just tell him where to play? If he goes back to his crappy team again it won't be good for development, they moved him around 5 times this year and he got like 40sec GT in some games according to hunter which is ridiculous.

 

[EichHart]

Leafs definitely made the right pick at 17. Most Buffalo fans wanted him at 8, but IMO Casey was to much to pass up at that spot as IMO he fell from where he should of went at 5 to the Canucks. I think we got our Mitch Marner in this draft. However, I see Tim as a Brian Campbell lite in his prime, something the Sabres definitely needed.

 

[Oilyveins97*]

Subban, McD, Weber, Burns, Josi, Letang, Keith, Karlsson, Byfuglien, Klingberg, Fowler, Skjei, Faulk, Barrie, Slavin, Parayko.

These same scouting agencies and pro-scouts let all these gems fall right through their hands. For some, multiple times. Why are we using "team x or x # of teams let him fall through" as a valid argument? Since when are scouts and teams perfect at drafting or even recognising talent? How often do we see a guy drop in the draft ONLY because of questionable IQ? Almost never. We usually see players drop because of injury concerns, or attitude issues, or work ethic problems or physical limitations in either speed or size.

Timothy is a almost a full year behind in development compared to his peers because of his mono and injuries. He wasn't the shiny toy anymore and all it takes for a team is to fall in love with one guy before the draft. They don't prep for guys to fall in the draft and more times than not stick to their predetermined draft rankings. It's not rocket science to recognise why talent sometimes falls through. We've seen it with Fowler, Chychrun and now Liljegren. And if I'm not wrong, I believe all of them fell because of some magical reason (that no one knows) and low hockey IQ.

You can literally make this argument for basically every d man in this draft

Johnny fell in the draft due to size, I guess the Oilers should pencil Yamamoto into the top line RW position and call him elite talent before he plays a game in the league

 

[93LEAFS]

The real question is, how do we get him guaranteed minutes next year? I heard he doesn't even have a contract for next year so can the leafs just tell him where to play? If he goes back to his crappy team again it won't be good for development, they moved him around 5 times this year and he got like 40sec GT in some games according to hunter which is ridiculous.

We can either send him to the Marlies or ask him to go to the CHL if we want to guarantee him ice-time.

Realistically, I think the organization believes a healthy off-season with dedicated training will make him good enough that Rogle will have to play him because it is in their best interest.

 

[TIGERCOOL]

As I've said before, if you'd only look at how he played this year, he would likely not even have been a 1st rounder. I don't think it has anything to do with him being overscouted at all. He was outplayed by Brännström all year long at every level. I watched him in SuperElit a number of times and he was struggling even there, fumbling pucks, making boneheaded decisions, trying to stickhandle through multiple guys in the neutral zone and losing the puck. So really what it comes down to is how much you believe his mono affected him/his performance this year.

Well... This is why you do exactly what Hunter said and examine the entire body of work. You also don't have to buy in to any "theory" that mono effected his performance because that's exactly what mono does. We know the prognosis of the illness and the effects demonstrated by Liljegren were consistent with that.

Mitch Marner had mono this year and even after returning he was about half the player he had been previously. Same with Nylander last year in his abysmal AHL playoffs. It's not some abstract or absurd theory, it's an illness with easily identifiable symptoms. Does fumbling pucks and making boneheaded decisions sound like the player he was in his 16 year old season? Was it mentioned anywhere in scouting reports or identifiable in videos? No. So let's apply Occam's razor and assume that Liljegren hasn't simply gotten much worse at hockey for no reason whatsoever.

 

[AppsSyl]

You can literally make this argument for basically every d man in this draft

Johnny fell in the draft due to size, I guess the Oilers should pencil Yamamoto into the top line RW position and call him elite talent before he plays a game in the league

Hey Oilyveins97 you seem pretty critical of the kid for some reason.
I have a question for you.
What is the one missing ingredient for the Oilers blueline, and possibly what they need to take the next step?
The answer is an elite puck moving RHD who can get the puck up ice to McDavid and quarterback the powerplay.
What is Liljegren?

 

[Oilyveins97*]

Hey Oilyveins97 you seem pretty critical of the kid for some reason.
I have a question for you.
What is the one missing ingredient for the Oilers blueline, and possibly what they need to take the next step?
The answer is an elite puck moving RHD who can get the puck up ice to McDavid and quarterback the powerplay.
What is Liljegren?

Hey AppsSyl!

I personally don't think adding Barrie to the Oilers would bring us a Stanley Cup.

Mcdavid runs our powerplay, when you have a player like that you don't necessarily need a QB on the backend

 

[TMLife*]

Hey Oilyveins97 you seem pretty critical of the kid for some reason.
I have a question for you.
What is the one missing ingredient for the Oilers blueline, and possibly what they need to take the next step?
The answer is an elite puck moving RHD who can get the puck up ice to McDavid and quarterback the powerplay.
What is Liljegren?

I don’t think Liljegrin is a QB, more of the zone entry and shooter imo

 

[M2Beezy]

Had him ranked 15-20 a few months back but came back up to around 10 so I can see this as a steal for the Leafs I think this is a sleeper pick and the Leafs management knew what they were doing and got the best player at that spot (maybe out side of Tolvanen) so If i were a Leafs fan Id be pretty happy with this pickup

 

[Morgs]

Leafs definitely made the right pick at 17. Most Buffalo fans wanted him at 8, but IMO Casey was to much to pass up at that spot as IMO he fell from where he should of went at 5 to the Canucks. I think we got our Mitch Marner in this draft. However, I see Tim as a Brian Campbell lite in his prime, something the Sabres definitely needed.

I would be stoked if his career ends up remotely similar to Brian Campbell. One of the best transition / possession defenseman in the NHL for years. I wouldn't say its best case scenario because Liljegren's tools > Campbell's, but holy **** I'd be happy.

 

[AppsSyl]

Hey AppsSyl!

I personally don't think adding Barrie to the Oilers would bring us a Stanley Cup.

Mcdavid runs our powerplay, when you have a player like that you don't necessarily need a QB on the backend

It is not just about the powerplay, but about getting the puck up to the forwards quickly in transition. McDavid (and Crosby) are in a league of their own, but you saw in the playoffs when teams start to smother McDavid that he cannot do everything. With an offensive threat on the back end it helps keep other teams honest, creating time and space for McDavid.

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

You can literally make this argument for basically every d man in this draft

Johnny fell in the draft due to size, I guess the Oilers should pencil Yamamoto into the top line RW position and call him elite talent before he plays a game in the league

Right, except you're not here talking about every dman in this draft, are you now? See the problem?

Scouting isn't an exact science. Top picks bust (look at your fav team, I assume you're an oilers fan) and later picks boom. Sometimes players aren't gauged fairly, sometimes there are limited viewings. Lots of different reasons. I don't know how teams can get a good gauge of a young kid when they go to watch him in a game where he only plays one or two shifts. Because that's what Timothy did. He got benched for long periods of time not because of his bad play but because of his inability. How can scouts get a good reading on a kid when he's out there forcing himself to play when he's not ready. How can you tell a kid not to put that pressure on himself and not showcase his talents when he's free falling in the rankings? Like I've said before, Timothy was in a perfect storm this past season. Something that most scouts either missed or recognised and chose to go a different route with a much safer pick.

Is he a steal of a pick? I don't know and frankly don't care. Did he lose a year of development time potentially? Yes. Is that deemed as a risk factor that might've determined his draft status? Absolutely. Is he a unanimous favourite pick for our franchise and fanbase? Abso-****ing-lutely. Does he have the potential to be the best player from this draft? 100%