RD Timothy Liljegren - Ex-Rogle BK, SHL (2017, 17th, TOR) III

[Mikeyg]

Hard (but inaccurate) shot, good hands, decent puck-moving ability, but low/mediocre hockey IQ.

Skating ability is the best part of his game and gives him legit top 4 potential, but I'm not seeing high-end potential like others around here.

Lmao mediocre hockey iq, as soon as you said that you lost all credibility, this guy slaughters neutral zone traps with stretch passes routinely, and defends well. See ya.

 

[Mikeyg]

Liljegren’s season has been fine for a guy drafted last year, but I’m still placing my bets on the guy that won the award for best defender in Liiga. I saw him play at the WJC and I’ve been watching the finals, and I think he needs to do more offensively and improve his defense to be placed near Heiskanen. Still, he is one of the more intriguing defensive prospects of 2017 draft and I will surely follow him next year too.

A finn liking liiga? Suprising! but yeah he needs probably 1 more year of AHL then he can probably step into the 2nd pair at the NHL level. People forget that even the mighty karlsson needed 2 years post draft. These high potential guys in the second half of the first round normally need a good 2 to 3 years.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

A finn liking liiga? Suprising! but yeah he needs probably 1 more year of AHL then he can probably step into the 2nd pair at the NHL level. People forget that even the mighty karlsson needed 2 years post draft. These high potential guys in the second half of the first round normally need a good 2 to 3 years.

What's wrong with liking Liiga? It's not far from AHL in terms of overall quality due to AHL being more focused on developing young players and having 31 teams, some of which are pretty terrible. It's also proving to be a pretty solid league for developing defenders, just look at guys like Lindell, Nutivaara, Auvitu and Niku. Anyways, I'm not going to get into this argument in this thread And I agree, there's nothing wrong with Liljegren if he takes 2, 3 or even more years to break into the NHL. Defenders rarely break out in the NHL before they are 22 or older, except for the ones drafted really high. I don't know how the Marlies are going to look like next year, but I imagine there will be a bigger role available for Liljegren. Let's see how he handles it.

 

[LeafChief]

Better hope his defensive game is rounding out, because his offensive game has dropped off.

Started off strong with 9 points in the 17 games played before the WJC, but after putting up a disappointing 2 points in 7 games at the WJC, he has put up 12 points in the 45 games he has played since then.

Not the kind of numbers you want to see from a kid with his talent level playing on an offensive powerhouse, even if he's only 18.

Hard (but inaccurate) shot, good hands, decent puck-moving ability, but low/mediocre hockey IQ.

Skating ability is the best part of his game and gives him legit top 4 potential, but I'm not seeing high-end potential like others around here.

This is incredible really. You obviously haven't watched the Marlies this year.

 

[biotk]

People forget that even the mighty karlsson needed 2 years post draft.

Karlsson didn't need two years post draft. He played his D+1 in the SHL. Started his D+2 in the NHL, was sent down to the AHL for 12 games and then brought back up as a regular. He played 60 games in the NHL during his D+2, easily getting #1D minutes for the second half of the season.

John Carlson was taken in the same draft. Played his D+1 in the OHL, but played in the AHL in the playoffs. His 3 points in 16 playoff games are similar to Liljegren. In his D+2 he split between the AHL and NHL. Registering 39 points in 48 games in the A, and 6 points in 22 games in the NHL playing 3rd pairing minutes (some 2nd pairing). Then he was fulltime NHL for his D+3 playing first pairing minutes.

I have watched Liljegren play a lot this year -probably 55 games. From the summer showcase, to his first rookie tournament game, where he was widely and loudly criticized, but he showed me exactly what I was looking for - while having bad luck, to his pre-season with the Leafs, AHL regular season and playoffs plus the WJC. Many games I watched from the stands where I solely focused on Liljegren and documented everything he did. The tools are all there, so is the toolbox. The major flaws that some claimed he had are not. He has been kept on a tight lease offensively so he could concentrate on the defensive end - and has done great in that area. I was worried that he would let loose at the WJC, but instead he played extremely solid and didn't give away the puck in bad spots like Brannstrom did several times. He would have had a decent number of points if secondary assists were recorded the same way as they are here, but I didn't give a damn about how many points he had at the WJC.

I will be very disappointed if he doesn't follow the Carlson path - next year mostly in the AHL, but while being given more range to show his offensive talent. With some games for the Leafs, mostly on the third pairing, especially after the WJC. And then a regular during his D+3 with top pairing minutes and PP time.

Others will say this is asking too much, too soon, and I have no idea how prospect development to the big club is going to go under Dubas, but I think he has exceeded expectations at every step since the draft, and I feel that other dramatically underestimate the percentage of first round drafted D who play a decent number of NHL games during their D+2 and then are regulars during their D+3.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It would have been interesting to see what Liljegren could have done in the CHL, this past season.

If he reported to Niagara, I have no doubt he could have been a point-per-game player against his peers.

Considering his solid AHL season, merely going a point-per-game in the OHL would have been a disappointment in comparison.

 

[Brobust]

Only thing lacking is strength.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

And I agree, there's nothing wrong with Liljegren if he takes 2, 3 or even more years to break into the NHL.

Liljegren will likely be NHL ready at some point next season, probably before the TDL. Zero chance it takes 2 (or 3, lol) more years for him to be an NHLer. The only question is if the Leafs will make room for him, or go with a veteran next year and let Liljegren ride the full year out on the Marlies’ top pairing, before bringing him up full-time 2 seasons after his draft year.

 

[Semantics]

The takes in this thread are hilarious. I don't know how anyone can watch the Marlies and not be impressed with him (I'm guessing they don't). He's clearly better than every other defender on that team, *including* Dermott, he just plays a very low risk, non-flashy game, which is ironic given the scouting hot takes a year ago. I'm beyond pleased with what I've been seeing.

This player could easily step into the NHL right now, but they want him to be a star, so I expect they'll let him continue to develop in the AHL next year in a larger role so that he's can jump right into a top-4 role when they do bring him up.

 

[MR4]

68+% CF, what a beast.

Liljegren’s season has been fine for a guy drafted last year, but I’m still placing my bets on the guy that won the award for best defender in Liiga. I saw him play at the WJC and I’ve been watching the finals, and I think he needs to do more offensively and improve his defense to be placed near Heiskanen. Still, he is one of the more intriguing defensive prospects of 2017 draft and I will surely follow him next year too.

I wouldn't call it just fine, putting up similar production to what #1D, 35pt Lindholm put up and he's been restricted on his offense (not saying Lilly is guaranteed to be anywhere close, Lindholm is way better defensively)

But yeah any honest person has to put Heiskanen above Liljegren right now until they play in the same league. And I'd easily bet on Heiskanen being at least top pair quality so Liljegren really will need to hit his potential to be in the convo

 

[LeafChief]

Karlsson didn't need two years post draft. He played his D+1 in the SHL. Started his D+2 in the NHL, was sent down to the AHL for 12 games and then brought back up as a regular. He played 60 games in the NHL during his D+2, easily getting #1D minutes for the second half of the season.

John Carlson was taken in the same draft. Played his D+1 in the OHL, but played in the AHL in the playoffs. His 3 points in 16 playoff games are similar to Liljegren. In his D+2 he split between the AHL and NHL. Registering 39 points in 48 games in the A, and 6 points in 22 games in the NHL playing 3rd pairing minutes (some 2nd pairing). Then he was fulltime NHL for his D+3 playing first pairing minutes.

I have watched Liljegren play a lot this year -probably 55 games. From the summer showcase, to his first rookie tournament game, where he was widely and loudly criticized, but he showed me exactly what I was looking for - while having bad luck, to his pre-season with the Leafs, AHL regular season and playoffs plus the WJC. Many games I watched from the stands where I solely focused on Liljegren and documented everything he did. The tools are all there, so is the toolbox. The major flaws that some claimed he had are not. He has been kept on a tight lease offensively so he could concentrate on the defensive end - and has done great in that area. I was worried that he would let loose at the WJC, but instead he played extremely solid and didn't give away the puck in bad spots like Brannstrom did several times. He would have had a decent number of points if secondary assists were recorded the same way as they are here, but I didn't give a damn about how many points he had at the WJC.

I will be very disappointed if he doesn't follow the Carlson path - next year mostly in the AHL, but while being given more range to show his offensive talent. With some games for the Leafs, mostly on the third pairing, especially after the WJC. And then a regular during his D+3 with top pairing minutes and PP time.

Others will say this is asking too much, too soon, and I have no idea how prospect development to the big club is going to go under Dubas, but I think he has exceeded expectations at every step since the draft, and I feel that other dramatically underestimate the percentage of first round drafted D who play a decent number of NHL games during their D+2 and then are regulars during their D+3.

Very informative post. Nice to hear from people that actually watch him play.

 

[connormcmuffin]

So much of prospect watching is reactionary to a fishbowl attention span, at this time last year a lot of people were writing off Dermott as being anything special and now people are getting carried away suggesting he'd be an upgrade on Gardiner for the upcoming season.

Liljegren has been productive in the SHL in his draft year and in the AHL in his +1 draft year, he's always played in a harder league than juniors, he's developing just fine and has some flash in this game (he echoes Kaberle with that cross ice pass to set up breakaways). He may still be two or three years away, no need to rush him.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

First, I've really been impressed how well Liljgren has progressed this season in the AHL. Now that doesn't mean I think he will NHL ready next year. But it really doesn't matter. Leafs are hoping Liljgren and other youngsters are good NHLers by 2019/20 and beyond. That would seem to be the Leafs time line for success.
Liljgren might never be a top 10 NHL Dman, maybe not even top 30, all he can do is be the best he can be. So it's a little early to make NHL comparisons to Carlson and others.

 

[LemonSauceD]

What's a good Liljegren comparable? I would say Anton Stralman.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

What's a good Liljegren comparable? I would say Anton Stralman.

Stralman/Vatanen are good comps.

Liljegren needs to improve his skating and strength. Top end speed is lacking but the edges are great. Once those come around, he's a good bet to be a top 2 imo.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

68+% CF, what a beast.
I wouldn't call it just fine, putting up similar production to what #1D, 35pt Lindholm put up and he's been restricted on his offense (not saying Lilly is guaranteed to be anywhere close, Lindholm is way better defensively)

But yeah any honest person has to put Heiskanen above Liljegren right now until they play in the same league. And I'd easily bet on Heiskanen being at least top pair quality so Liljegren really will need to hit his potential to be in the convo

Well, with such a small sample size of players, I don't think comparing stats between D+1 defenders is very meaningful. You have players in massively different situations. Lindholm was able to jump from AHL to NHL after one season, while Honka, who had a lot better season statistically, is still struggling to solidify his spot in the NHL after 3 seasons. I think a good and realistic season for Liljegren would be to put up numbers similar to Honka in his 2nd/3rd season in AHL and maybe get a small taste of NHL.

 

[MR4]

Well, with such a small sample size of players, I don't think comparing stats between D+1 defenders is very meaningful. You have players in massively different situations. Lindholm was able to jump from AHL to NHL after one season, while Honka, who had a lot better season statistically, is still struggling to solidify his spot in the NHL after 3 seasons. I think a good and realistic season for Liljegren would be to put up numbers similar to Honka in his 2nd/3rd season in AHL and maybe get a small taste of NHL.

Well really I see Honka's struggles as more of the coach's fault than the player, he's put up good stats when he's played.

But yeah, Liljegren should be given the #1D role and top PP minutes next season so hopefully he kills it. Not too sure if I want him in the NHL in the 2nd half but that's just going to be determined by Lilly's play anyways. Super excited to see his progression

 

[Mikeyg]

Karlsson didn't need two years post draft. He played his D+1 in the SHL. Started his D+2 in the NHL, was sent down to the AHL for 12 games and then brought back up as a regular. He played 60 games in the NHL during his D+2, easily getting #1D minutes for the second half of the season.

John Carlson was taken in the same draft. Played his D+1 in the OHL, but played in the AHL in the playoffs. His 3 points in 16 playoff games are similar to Liljegren. In his D+2 he split between the AHL and NHL. Registering 39 points in 48 games in the A, and 6 points in 22 games in the NHL playing 3rd pairing minutes (some 2nd pairing). Then he was fulltime NHL for his D+3 playing first pairing minutes.

I have watched Liljegren play a lot this year -probably 55 games. From the summer showcase, to his first rookie tournament game, where he was widely and loudly criticized, but he showed me exactly what I was looking for - while having bad luck, to his pre-season with the Leafs, AHL regular season and playoffs plus the WJC. Many games I watched from the stands where I solely focused on Liljegren and documented everything he did. The tools are all there, so is the toolbox. The major flaws that some claimed he had are not. He has been kept on a tight lease offensively so he could concentrate on the defensive end - and has done great in that area. I was worried that he would let loose at the WJC, but instead he played extremely solid and didn't give away the puck in bad spots like Brannstrom did several times. He would have had a decent number of points if secondary assists were recorded the same way as they are here, but I didn't give a damn about how many points he had at the WJC.

I will be very disappointed if he doesn't follow the Carlson path - next year mostly in the AHL, but while being given more range to show his offensive talent. With some games for the Leafs, mostly on the third pairing, especially after the WJC. And then a regular during his D+3 with top pairing minutes and PP time.

Others will say this is asking too much, too soon, and I have no idea how prospect development to the big club is going to go under Dubas, but I think he has exceeded expectations at every step since the draft, and I feel that other dramatically underestimate the percentage of first round drafted D who play a decent number of NHL games during their D+2 and then are regulars during their D+3.

Yeah I agree, I was moreso eluding that it took EK a few years to become a star is all. If ive said it once i’ve said it a million times, dmen who dont make the wjc in their draft year in addition to having some questions about them will tend to slide in the first round. Recent examples include chychrun who had bad shoulder injuries and went really cold for stretches of his draft year, and lily who had an unreal d - 1 year but a pretty bad draft year. I knew liky would find his way, I watched the streams of those development camps and I wasn’t scared at all. I just knew that a player couldn’t go from being a top 2 pick to a draft grenade sinply because of sample size. His draft year was laughable he went on 3 or 4 different teams and only played a handful of games. Basically im bringing that up because he really didn’t get much productive development as an 18 year old. Had he done that be might be at Dermott’s level right now just with more talent to go along with it. Anyways I expect him to be elite by 2019 and hes well on his way.

 

[Knies iT]

The takes in this thread are hilarious. I don't know how anyone can watch the Marlies and not be impressed with him (I'm guessing they don't). He's clearly better than every other defender on that team, *including* Dermott, he just plays a very low risk, non-flashy game, which is ironic given the scouting hot takes a year ago. I'm beyond pleased with what I've been seeing.

This player could easily step into the NHL right now, but they want him to be a star, so I expect they'll let him continue to develop in the AHL next year in a larger role so that he's can jump right into a top-4 role when they do bring him up.

He's not close to being better than Dermott...

You can't call someone else out for not watching the Marlies and then make a hot take like that. Dermott's an all situations NHL'er playing as the #1 D on the best AHL team in the league.

 

[lomiller1]

Josh Morissey 13th overall, 1 point 8 games

Morrissey had 9 points in 20 AHL playoff games in his D+1 year and was arguably the Ice Cap's best D-man on their run to the finals that year.

 

[MR4]

He's not close to being better than Dermott...

You can't call someone else out for not watching the Marlies and then make a hot take like that. Dermott's an all situations NHL'er playing as the #1 D on the best AHL team in the league.

He said if he didn't have a year of development wasted, in other words if we were to think what Liljegren + 1 more development year to be, it could be close to Dermott.

This year was the year Dermott made himself the official #1D on Marlies, no? And people are projecting Liljegren to be the #1 next year with another year of development

EDIT: NVM, he said currently Lilly > Dermott which is totally wrong. But Lilly could be = to Dermott at this point next season

 

[Knies iT]

He said if he didn't have a year of development wasted, in other words if we were to think what Liljegren + 1 more development year to be, it could be close to Dermott.

This year was the year Dermott made himself the official #1D on Marlies, no? And people are projecting Liljegren to be the #1 next year with another year of development

EDIT: NVM, he said currently Lilly > Dermott which is totally wrong. But Lilly could be = to Dermott at this point next season

Even a statement like that would be a stretch. Dermott's been the best Marlies D for 2 years now, even going back to the 2017 season when he was the 1D. Bourne, who was a video coach for the Marlies, publicly stated that Dermott should have made the Leafs as early as September 2017 TC and was NHL ready for some time before that. It took management too long to realize that.

This is the year Dermott's stock really exploded, you're right, but he's been this caliber for some time now and his emergence was no surprise. I'd be shocked if Liljegren is at his level a year from now. In my opinion Liljegren needs 1.5 more seasons to go before he even gets a look at the next level, which is no slight, but there is certainly a lot of work to be done.

 

[biotk]

But yeah any honest person has to put Heiskanen above Liljegren right now until they play in the same league. And I'd easily bet on Heiskanen being at least top pair quality so Liljegren really will need to hit his potential to be in the convo

I can't honestly put Heiskanen anywhere. I would imagine based on draft position, and the season he had in Finland, that Heiskanen should be ranked higher than Liljegren, perhaps much higher, but I haven't watched him play. Well I have watched him play two games during the WJC, but that is simply not enough. I remember one scout interviewed by the Athletic before he draft said that Heiskanen was the sure thing, more well rounded. Liljegren had a higher upside, but was a much bigger risk. Does that still hold true? I don't know. Heiskanen's upside might be viewed much higher after his year in Finland. Liljegren might be viewed as far less of risk now, but would the same scout see his potential upside as being as high? I don't know.

Comparing players is hard, even if they are playing in the same league (there will still be so many differences - teammates, coaching, deployment, etc, etc). Comparing players in different leagues is, of course, much harder.

Lots of people will do re-drafts - even this early - but I don't because I simply can't pay attention to almost any of the 1st rounders from any given year. I have said that I think Liljegren has shown that he should have gone higher, but in doing so, I am not comparing him to the players taken ahead of (and behind) him in his draft class because, I simply can't. All I can do when it comes to Liljegren is say that he dropped significantly in the draft in large part due to specific concerns, and since the draft I don't think those concerns are justified. Therefore, I believe that he shouldn't have dropped as much as he did. Then I can look at Liljegren and say - how much do I think he has improved over the last year? And how is that compared to what a normal expectation of improvement would be. And if Liljegren stalled out last year due to mono, should I actually be expecting two years worth of improvement, instead of one? I don’t know the answers to any of those questions. I also have the bias that I have been fan of Liljegren long preceding the draft.

 

[Brobust]

Morrissey had 9 points in 20 AHL playoff games in his D+1 year and was arguably the Ice Cap's best D-man on their run to the finals that year.

That PPG pace is 0.06 higher than Liljegren's regular season PPG. And Liljegren's D+1 PPG is actually a tiny bit higher than Morrissey's D+2 AHL full season.

Anyway, don't see why you had come running to Morrissey's defence here. Nobody said he was bad or anything.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

That PPG pace is 0.06 higher than Liljegren's regular season PPG. And Liljegren's D+1 PPG is actually a tiny bit higher than Morrissey's D+2 AHL full season.

Anyway, don't see why you had come running to Morrissey's defence here. Nobody said he was bad or anything.

he was compared to a Leafs prospect, which is essentially calling him terrible