There’s going to be a lot of reactionary takes on here and part of why I’m going to distance myself from these boards a bit, but I’m still where I was a few games ago: slightly concerned but (perhaps foolishly) optimistic that the team can eventually turn things around.
Why? Well here is my meek attempt to try and placate some of the posters that may be getting riled up based on the team’s poor stretch of play:
- Let’s take a look at the most recent few Oilers games. First, a close loss at home against LA, where the opposition was putting everything out on the line and blocked every shot, with the simple goal of beating us after losing in 7 in the playoffs. That was an emotional victory for them and a game I’m sure they had circled on the calendar. Close fought and we come out on the wrong side, but hard to fault the effort or execution level. Then Vegas comes into town and the script reverses; we win a close-fought game that by all accounts should have ended in regulation, given some of the suspect calls on the ice. Now fast forward to this most recent trip, which of course has been disappointing, but also looks worse than it has been. I still think it was careless, individual/rookie mistakes that cost us the win against Jersey (a game where we started well and were outshooting one of the highest shooting & hottest teams in the league), and a traditional “trap” loss against NYI, where we couldn’t beat a hot goalie after surrendering the first goal (or two). Now this isn’t to say that this run has been acceptable, but considering the injuries to our club and the general over reliance on rookies, dry spells are prone to occur and the numbers suggest things will turn around, given these losses are typical for our club.
- The Oilers were 7-3 in their first 10 games of the season, and while they may have been winning unsustainably, their 5v5 numbers were good for the most part, and it was just the PK that stunk. More recently, 5v5 play has taken a dip, while the PK has somewhat improved from the horrendous start. Again, the 5v5 play SHOULD come around at some point, conditional on if we can keep some lines consistent and get the new guys to establish some chemistry. It would also help if we started giving the rookies better opportunities (try McLeod or Holloway in the top 6, perhaps?) instead of continuing to try and fit a square peg into a round hole by saddling one of McDavid or Draisaitl with the offensively incapable Puljujarvi).
- Our bottom-6 is currently rocking a horrendous PDO. At some point this will regress to the mean. Likewise, Evan Bouchard will eventually get out of his offensive slump. Considering we are still 10-10 while receiving minimal offensive contribution from the back end and bottom 6, I would say there is only room to grow from here.
- We have had the second most difficult schedule in the league. This is not an excuse but important context to note when considering the team’s future outlook. Yes, you would hope a contender can still at least be .600-.650 through this stretch, but this is still a flawed roster that requires tinkering (more on that below), and with the Kane injury, those issues are being exposed.
- Lastly, and probably most importantly, the roster will be / should be improved. Not just with the eventual return of Kane, but management knows this season cannot be wasted (there are reports about how pissed Katz was mid-season last year and how there would have been drastic changes if the Oilers missed the playoffs, so I doubt that would change this year). I’m sure there will be in-season additions if things continue to trend in the wrong direction. One or two holes on the backend and in the bottom-6 are magnifying this team’s issues, and if those can get plugged up, I’m sure we will see this team take the next step. Until then, McDavid and Draisaitl are still capable of willing this team to wins on their own, as we’ve seen.
The only concern I have is in the short term. Long term we should still be set up for success, given this team can be managed properly (perhaps a big if), and the young players can learn from their mistakes and step up in crucial moments.
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