Speculation: Rate your level of concern

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Doesn’t that go hand in hand? If we have played more good teams now we need to play less good teams moving forward no?

Yeah
That’s why I said “slightly” AND no major injuries
Kanes absence has a huge effect
We aren’t the same team we were 10 games ago

 

[brentashton]

Sitting at a blistering 20% chance to make the playoffs on Moneypuck.

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They have to play .750 hockey from here out to achieve the same level of a WC team last year. Tough.

 

[PaPaDee]

Honestly, not worth getting worked up about the Oilers. They’re just not worth it.

 

[bone]

Doesn’t that go hand in hand? If we have played more good teams now we need to play less good teams moving forward no?

Out of the 20 games Edmonton has played, 13 have been the exact same opponents as Calgary (if you consider playing each as the same opponents). The differences are Edmonton vs. VAN, vs. STL, @STL, @CHI, vs. DAL, @Wash, @car where Calgary was vs. COL, vs SEA, @BOS, vs WPG, @PHI, @pit

So for home/away: Edm 3 home, 4 road, CAL 3 home, 3 road
Opponent last year record: Edm 5 playoff teams, 2 non-playoff. Cal 3 playoff teams, 3 non-playoff teams.
Opponent current year record: Edm 4 current playoff teams, 3 non-playoff. Cal 4 current playoff teams, 2 non-playoff teams.

Looks basically identical to me, but I've seen Flame fans trying to claim their schedule has been tougher.

 

[Oilhawks]

They have to play .750 hockey from here out to achieve the same level of a WC team last year. Tough.

Luckily the schedule is a lot easier soon. With the way half of the league is hovering around .500 at this time, wouldn’t be shocked to see some lower numbers to make the dance this year.

 

[bone]

They have to play .750 hockey from here out to achieve the same level of a WC team last year. Tough.

Wouldn't .750 from here on out earn them 113 total points? That would have been top 5 in the league last year, not just a wild card.

The final wildcard last year was 97. To get there would require a .621 record from here. An upcoming 3 game winning streak away would drop it to 0.602 in the final 59.

 

[brentashton]

Maybe my “in my head math” is off…hear me out

20 points so far. 20 games done.
62 games to go.

Nashville at 97 points was the second WC last year.

So need 77 points in 104 possible points. .740 percentage.

Am I calculating something wrong?

EDIT - need to win 38-39 games of 62 to get those points, so .630 clip. I stand corrected!! My wife is a CA, she does the math stuff in our house.

 

[brentashton]

Wouldn't .750 from here on out earn them 113 total points? That would have been top 5 in the league last year, not just a wild card.

The final wildcard last year was 97. To get there would require a .621 record from here. An upcoming 3 game winning streak away would drop it to 0.602 in the final 59.

Yes see my edit, sorry didn’t see you second post, I was feverishly punching my calculator buttons! Lol.

 

[McJadeddog]

Luckily the schedule is a lot easier soon. With the way half of the league is hovering around .500 at this time, wouldn’t be shocked to see some lower numbers to make the dance this year.

Significantly easier in fact. I suspect we'll play a lot better the rest of the season. Whether its enough to squeeze into the playoffs or not is another matter.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Yes see my edit, sorry didn’t see you second post, I was feverishly punching my calculator buttons! Lol.

A simple way to look at it is that you need roughly 45 wins to make the playoffs in a wildcard spot.

We need to win 35 of our remaining 62 games or 56.5%

For comparisons sake if you apply the same rule to Vegas, they need to win 29 of their remaining 61 games or 47.5%

In other words, Oilers have to play better than .500 the rest of the way to make it. While Vegas can play a bit below .500 and still qualify for the playoffs.

 

[bone]

Maybe my “in my head math” is off…hear me out

20 points so far. 20 games done.
62 games to go.

Nashville at 97 points was the second WC last year.

So need 77 points in 104 possible points. .740 percentage.

Am I calculating something wrong?

124 points. 62 *2 = 124.

---edit
Nevermind. Shouldn't open a reply window and get distracted for 20 minutes before posting.

 

[brentashton]

124 points. 62 *2 = 124.

---edit
Nevermind. Shouldn't open a reply window and get distracted for 20 minutes before posting.

I don’t think good Will Hunting, math genius could understand what I was trying to do. I’m refraining now from ever posting any answers to math related questions.

 

[Beerfish]

Seattle 7th in the league, Oilers 21st. Adam Larsson +14

 

[boredem]

Seattle 7th in the league, Oilers 21st. Adam Larsson +14

And their top F has 18 points, tied for 66th in the league.

Biz was right, this is a lottery team without McDrai.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Seattle 7th in the league, Oilers 21st. Adam Larsson +14

Archibald has more goals than anyone in our bottom six.

 

[BlackDogg]

Archibald has more goals than anyone in our bottom six.

And more physicality

 

[Yuke]

And their top F has 18 points, tied for 66th in the league.

Biz was right, this is a lottery team without McDrai.

You should be listening to Biz for entertainment not hockey knowledge

 

[boredem]

You should be listening to Biz for entertainment not hockey knowledge

No kidding. I am saying he is right on that one though even though he is just trying to stir the pot.

2014 - Buffalo takes Drai and we get Sam Reinhart or Bennett.

2015 - We don't win the lottery and get Eichel or Dylan Strome

All of a sudden the decade of darkness is 2 decades. I don't even know what the answer is anymore, we've been through GM's, Coaches, Goalies.

 

[K1900L]

Bad scouting, drafting and management have been the biggest problem - totally outdated ways of handling things.
It is just not acceptable that you have McDavid and Draisaitl on your team for a bargain of $21M and are somehow not able to compete for the Stanley Cup annually.

Since 2012 the Oilers have had 16 draft picks in the first two rounds and there was no preeminent pick at all. McDavid and Draisaitl were self-explanatory, Nurse and Bouchard were good, but certainly not top tier picks. Skinner might be the only hit after all, time will tell.

You simply can't build a great team by only signing players because you will usually overpay on the market in order to acquire them.

Contracts are a disaster. Oilers paid Nurse (11p/20gp) and Campbell (.876) $14,25M. Simultaneously, Yzerman signed Husso (.922), Kubalik (21p/20gp) and Perron (16p/19gp) for $12M.
People argued that overpaying Nurse is no big deal, but it most definitely is if you could acquire a guy like Kubalik ($2,5M) for the money that Nurse and Skinner are above what they actually deserve.
Whereas the Oilers pick up some obsolete vets (mostly also on bad contracts).
This is all about bad analytics and scouting and decisions.

Now people will probably argue that Yzerman was very lucky and that the Oilers very unlucky. But what are the odds that some people can just repeat their success (Yzerman) over and over again whereas the Oilers just have bad luck through 10 years? Crap rolls downhill.

If any of McDrai decides to leave or if they won't have won anything by the end of their contracts, heads will have to roll. There is no way around. Not just for bad decision making for the Oilers, but by wasting the talent of some of the best players the game of hockey has ever produced.

 

[nturn06]

Bad scouting, drafting and management have been the biggest problem - totally outdated ways of handling things.
It is just not acceptable that you have McDavid and Draisaitl on your team for a bargain of $21M and are somehow not able to compete for the Stanley Cup annually.

Since 2012 the Oilers have had 16 draft picks in the first two rounds and there was no preeminent pick at all. McDavid and Draisaitl were self-explanatory, Nurse and Bouchard were good, but certainly not top tier picks. Skinner might be the only hit after all, time will tell.

You simply can't build a great team by only signing players because you will usually overpay on the market in order to acquire them.

Contracts are a disaster. Oilers paid Nurse (11p/20gp) and Campbell (.876) $14,25M. Simultaneously, Yzerman signed Husso (.922), Kubalik (21p/20gp) and Perron (16p/19gp) for $12M.
People argued that overpaying Nurse is no big deal, but it most definitely is if you could acquire a guy like Kubalik ($2,5M) for the money that Nurse and Skinner are above what they actually deserve.
Whereas the Oilers pick up some obsolete vets (mostly also on bad contracts).
This is all about bad analytics and scouting and decisions.

Now people will probably argue that Yzerman was very lucky and that the Oilers very unlucky. But what are the odds that some people can just repeat their success (Yzerman) over and over again whereas the Oilers just have bad luck through 10 years? Crap rolls downhill.

If any of McDrai decides to leave or if they won't have won anything by the end of their contracts, heads will have to roll. There is no way around. Not just for bad decision making for the Oilers, but by wasting the talent of some of the best players the game of hockey has ever produced.

I don not understand what you mean by the bolded part, do you mean that the Oilers made an excellent pick or an obvious pick. Almost all rankings were having Sam Bennett above Draisaitl. Even in his rookie year, Oilers fans were regreting the pick. The Drai pick was an excelent pick.

As the Yzerman comment, I really do not understand what are you trying to say. Picking Koekkoek over Vasy shows that he was lucky not good. Picking Drouin at #3 was another sign of his strong drafting, right? Tony de Angelo was not too good considering the next few picks after him.

No matter how you look at it, getting a star player in the late rounds after a terrible pick earlier is not a sign of amazing drafting. And hitting few times later in the draft probably has more to do with player development than drafting.

 

[K1900L]

I don not understand what you mean by the bolded part, do you mean that the Oilers made an excellent pick or an obvious pick. Almost all rankings were having Sam Bennett above Draisaitl. Even in his rookie year, Oilers fans were regreting the pick. The Drai pick was an excelent pick.

As the Yzerman comment, I really do not understand what are you trying to say. Picking Koekkoek over Vasy shows that he was lucky not good. Picking Drouin at #3 was another sign of his strong drafting, right? Tony de Angelo was not too good considering the next few picks after him.

No matter how you look at it, getting a star player in the late rounds after a terrible pick earlier is not a sign of amazing drafting. And hitting few times later in the draft probably has more to do with player development than drafting.

The Drai pick was obviously an excellent pick. But I don't think anyone had him below pick 4 and some even at 3. So it wasn't exactly a bold pick imo.

Yzerman was just an example of a good gm. You could put other teams there who did much better than we did at drafting as well. But concerning his previous picks, when did the Oilers pick guys like Cirelli or Point in the 3rd round the last time? Or a player like Palat in round 7 (who basically put up similar numbers to Nuge (1st overall!))? Or a freaking Nikita Kucherov in round 2, who is right there with Draisaitl and McDavid?
And yes, he did pick Koekkoek over Vasy, but he still picked him. I would like to remind you that the Oilers picked Yakupov with their first overall pick that year. The point stands. DeAngelo isn't a bad player anyway as well.

Or just his time with Detroit: taking Seider first pick as a gm, a guy who most people had ranked somewhere in the 20s and who goes on to play a more dominant rookie season with a terrible Detroit team than Darnell Nurse, our $9,5M #1 star defender, has ever played. Raymond? Edvinsson? Future will tell.

Claiming that this has nothing to do with analytics and good scouting is just wrong. Did they 'develop' Kucherov out of non-existing talent? Well, if that is the case, why can't we do so? Doesn't this also prove my actual broader point that the Oilers' 'team behind the team' and management are just bad compared to other franchises?

 

[Stoneman89]

I don not understand what you mean by the bolded part, do you mean that the Oilers made an excellent pick or an obvious pick. Almost all rankings were having Sam Bennett above Draisaitl. Even in his rookie year, Oilers fans were regreting the pick. The Drai pick was an excelent pick.

As the Yzerman comment, I really do not understand what are you trying to say. Picking Koekkoek over Vasy shows that he was lucky not good. Picking Drouin at #3 was another sign of his strong drafting, right? Tony de Angelo was not too good considering the next few picks after him.

No matter how you look at it, getting a star player in the late rounds after a terrible pick earlier is not a sign of amazing drafting. And hitting few times later in the draft probably has more to do with player development than drafting.

Everyone has dud picks. It's what you do with them afterwards that defines you. Drouin was moved for Sergachev when it became obvious to Yzerman that it was a mistake. And he capitalized big time.