With the comparables (Reilly: 6 yrs, $30 mill, $5 per; S. Jones: 6 yrs, $32.4 mill, $5.4 per) that are already out there, Risto's contract should have been easy for both sides to figure out. It is abundantly clear that either the Sabres are lowballing Risto, or Risto is looking for a fair amount higher than market value (or he is waiting for a Lindholm or Trouba deal to improve his bargaining position).
In my opinion, there is not a closer comparable to Ristolainen in the entire league than Seth Jones. Same draft year, similar draft position (4th vs. 8th), same age, same measurables, same NHL experience (3 yrs). While Jones' overall production is slightly higher over his three years (due to more NHL games played rookie year), Risto outproduced him this past year. That being said, once traded to Columbus, Jones' role, ice time, and production mirrored that of Risto's over the last half of the season.
Ultimately, past production and future trajectory is eeirly similar between these two players, IMO, and should have made Risto's contract easy to get done with Jones' comparable already in place. Analytics aside, I found Risto's past season to be slightly more impressive than Jones' (though future outlook between the two can be debated). Add in the fact that Jones' deal was signed first, and I think Risto should be looking at a slightly higher AAV than Jones.
A 6 yr, $34 mill deal (~$5.65 per) should have gotten this done months ago. If looking for more term, 7 yrs for $41 mill (~$5.85 per) or 8 yrs for $48 ($6 mill per) should have been easy enough to hammer out.
I am very interested to see where this contract lands, but really would be disappointed with a bridge deal with Eichel and Reinhart's deals to follow. While it would be hard to blame one side or the other not being privy to the negotiations, if it lands within the numbers stated above, both sides should be ashamed to have not arrived at such a simple outcome sooner.