Ranking Jet's past first rounders

[Holden Caulfield]

Closest 5v5 statistical cohorts to Scheifele's 2014-2016 seasons:

Not saying he is Kopitar, or will be as good as Kopitar, but...

Yeah posting that with nothing else is pretty misleading. No clues as to what goes into that.

Scheifele is a really good player that can be a #1 C. He won't be close to Kopitar. Kopitar is the best defensive forward in the league and a top 5 C. That's lofty goals. How many guys who have that type of resume started as slowly as Scheifele?. Kopitar, Bergeron, Toews were all core players as a 19 year olds. Guys with that kind of upside generally will have shown more by 22. He's showing for sure he can be a #1 C right now though. Can't wait to see how far that takes him, but I can safely say it won't be to Kopitar's level.

 

[garret9]

Yeah posting that with nothing else is pretty misleading. No clues as to what goes into that.

Scheifele is a really good player that can be a #1 C. He won't be close to Kopitar. Kopitar is the best defensive forward in the league and a top 5 C. That's lofty goals. How many guys who have that type of resume started as slowly as Scheifele?. Kopitar, Bergeron, Toews were all core players as a 19 year olds. Guys with that kind of upside generally will have shown more by 22.

Nothing misleading at all with what I said.

I pointed out his statistical performance is similar in overall:
goals per sixty
assists per sixty
points per sixty
relative expected goals for per sixty
relative expected goals against per sixty
individual shot attempts per sixty
with similar usage in % of team's available TOI, QoT (using % of TOI), and relative zone starts

That's not misleading. It is a fact.

It is not saying Scheifele will be Kopitar. If I had to place a bet, I say he won't.
I'm merely pointing out that there are comparisons, in fact that Kopitar is one of the closest cohorts.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Nothing misleading at all with what I said.

I pointed out his statistical performance is similar in overall:
goals per sixty
assists per sixty
points per sixty
relative expected goals for per sixty
relative expected goals against per sixty
individual shot attempts per sixty
with similar usage in % of team's available TOI, QoT (using % of TOI), and relative zone starts

That's not misleading. It is a fact.

It is not saying Scheifele will be Kopitar. If I had to place a bet, I say he won't.
I'm merely pointing out that there are comparisons, in fact that Kopitar is one of the closest cohorts.

Misleading since before this there's no way to know that.

Misleading since you take ALL of Kopitar's years while eliminating Scheifele's developing years.

Misleading since you yourself said it does not take age, development, role, or anything at like that into account.

 

[garret9]

Misleading since before this there's no way to know that.

Misleading since you take ALL of Kopitar's years while eliminating Scheifele's developing years.

Misleading since you yourself said it does not take age, development, role, or anything at like that into account.

It's not misleading since:
1) All those things are stated
2) I'm not trying to infer what you are defending against

 

[garret9]

As an aside: Alexander Burmistrov's career performance's closest comp is Adam Lowry (albeit Lowry's closest is Troy Brouwer).

 

[pucka lucka]

Misleading since before this there's no way to know that.

Misleading since you take ALL of Kopitar's years while eliminating Scheifele's developing years.

Misleading since you yourself said it does not take age, development, role, or anything at like that into account.

He posted a table and said nothing much else. How is that misleading? Scheifele has looked like a #1 the past month. If he maintains and goes 30-35 for a few years, thats a top 10 center. Likely not quite Kopitar level in either zone, but not that far either.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Using pre-draft information only (combo of what I thought of them at the time and numbers):
Ehlers
Connor
Trouba
Scheifele
Roslovic
Morrissey

What I'd say now:
Ehlers
Scheifele
Trouba
Connor
Morrissey
Roslovic

Connor falls only because Scheifele has been growing far beyond expectations. Trouba I think is being underrated as he hasn't been scoring.

That is awfully close to oxymoron territory. It is a little like saying Trouba has been underrated because he hasn't played very well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still hesitate to put acheif above trouba. I'll know for sure next year but it's easy waaay closer then I thought it would be.

Scheifele looks like he's going to hit what I thought his ceiling would be (a 1b)

He's already at least hit that. Trouba may yet turn out to be the better player but right now it is Scheifele by quite a margin.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's some good drafting especially since Chevy's highest pick was #7.
Now if he could only find some good STs coaches.

Maybe we could hold a draft of assistant coaches.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Scheifele is not gonna be a top 5 center in the nhl, best twoway forward in nhl. I really really like scheifele but that is just completely unrealistic.

You're probably right but he has been at that kind of level for the past month or so. The question is whether he can sustain it against the best competition. He looked good against top competition today.

 

[Grind]

He's already at least hit that. Trouba may yet turn out to be the better player but right now it is Scheifele by quite a margin.

Absolutely...for this season.

That's why I want to see one more before I hedge my bets.

And as for my wording yes I suppose he is a 1b already

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Ehlers
Schief
Trouba
Connor
Morrissey
Ros

Scheifele is a hell of a hockey player and he is having a hell of a season. His trajectory has pretty much been strait up. No reason to think that will change and I'm not sure why people want to keep selling him short. He will have a solid set of linemates next season and he will also have Little to take some of the toughs.

How close do Scheif and Tarasenko compare 5vs5?

 

[garret9]

That is awfully close to oxymoron territory. It is a little like saying Trouba has been underrated because he hasn't played very well.

No. It's simple:

I care more about outscoring than scoring.

Trouba has performed well in out shooting and out chancing. I care about that more than his individual goals and assists.

His performance has been especially strong since 57% of his TOI has been with Stuart and 32% on his off-handed side. Both of which (Stuart and Off Hand) are noted decrease impacts in performance. That's a grand total of 89% of his TOI being in situations that are known to have a negative impact on performance (both the numbers and what you see of the player).

 

[surixon]

Hard to rate as a number of them aren't in the NHL yet:

Scheifele- While I believe both Ehlers and Conner will be more dynamic offensively upfront I place higher value on real strong 2-way number 1 centre's. It looks like Scheifele is close to achieving that.

Trouba - While he has been up and down, he has still shown himself cabable of being able to beat top pairing minutes with awful zone starts. More valuable to me than high end first line wingers. The biggest question for me is how much of his offense will develop.

Ehlers - Gets the nod over Conner due to already showing himself capable of playing well in the NHL.

Conner - Similar upside to Ehlers but less proven.

Morrissey - I still think he has top pairing upside, but even if he rounds into a good two-way number 3 he will still add a lot to the team with his ability to read the play and transition the puck.

Roslovic - Had a good colledge year and looks like he could develop into a solid middle six player.

 

[leafster7]

(Matthews or Laine)
Ehlers
Connor
Scheif
Trouba
Morrissey
Roslovic

 

[Whileee]

Ironically, the closest cohort to Scheifele's career (2011-16) performance is Little's career performance.

This doesn't account for trajectory or projection, but just overall career point production, Corsi, etc. for 5v5 situations.

The thing about Scheifele is that he keeps improving. He's better now than at the beginning of the season, and each season he's improve.

Watching him play today he very often looked like the best player on the ice, and that's becoming a more and more common scenario.

 

[Whileee]

No. It's simple:

I care more about outscoring than scoring.

Trouba has performed well in out shooting and out chancing. I care about that more than his individual goals and assists.

His performance has been especially strong since 57% of his TOI has been with Stuart and 32% on his off-handed side. Both of which (Stuart and Off Hand) are noted decrease impacts in performance. That's a grand total of 89% of his TOI being in situations that are known to have a negative impact on performance (both the numbers and what you see of the player).

So, a hot topic on the main board (as usual)... Rielly or Trouba?

 

[garret9]

So, a hot topic on the main board (as usual)... Rielly or Trouba?

Well from a blind numbers fancystats standpoint Rielly > Trouba but it's so close it's almost a tie...

Now, we also know that these numbers are relative numbers, and Trouba is trying to win a tugawar against Buff/Enstrom/etc vs Rielly try to win against Phaneuf/etc.

Plus the other stuff I just mentioned.

 

[irunthepeg]

I am torn by who is best but it is either ehlers or sheif. Regardless pretty fine first rounders. Connor may be eventually.

Ehlers
Sheif
Connor
Trouba
Morrissey
Roslovic

Not saying Ehlers and Connor won't have the same work ethic but I think that's the most underrated and promising part about Scheifele. His willingness to train and get better every season/off-season is why I think he is the perfect guy for us to have drafted first and I think will be our best 1st rounder for some time. The perfect guy to promote as your franchise's future.

 

[WinnipegWinter*]

Scheif
Ehlers
Connor
Trouba
Ros
Morrisey

I think Scheif will be the centerpiece and Ehlers will be the perfect complimentary player, but for that reason I put Scheif as number 1. Morrisey will be last until has can start trending upwards at the AHL level. I dont think he plays Jets next year

 

[Thai jet*]

Oates

Maybe we could hold a draft of assistant coaches.

Our best results have been from Adam Oates coaching. Maybe they should hire him and give our other 1st round players a chance at his talents.

 

[surixon]

Our best results have been from Adam Oates coaching. Maybe they should hire him and give our other 1st round players a chance at his talents.

I would bring him in to coach the pp and also be an individual skills coach.

 

[SM]

Can I just say that on top of improving his game through obvious hard work, his interactions with be media as of late have been much more elegant.

Gone are the days of "ya know" counts. I had never really considered him to become captain because he seemed too immature and unable to communicate effectively, but he's really stepped up how he handles all questions.

 

[ps241]

Maybe we could hold a draft of assistant coaches.

Ok I just laughed out loud.

 

[Daximus]

If I'm ranking them by where I think they end up it goes something like this..

Ehlers - 60-80 point playmaker who feeds Connor beauty passes on the regular.
Connor - Consistent 30+ goalscorer reaching 40 a couple of times.
Scheifele - Top 20-1C/Elite 2C
Trouba - A very solid top 4 defencemen but not quite in the elite category. No complaints though.
Morrissey - Bottom 4 puck mover who can handle some decent minutes. Doesn't quite develop into a top pairing guy.
Roslovic - A bottom 9 goalscorer. Might hit high 20's a couple of times. Hope he proves me wrong.