Rank your TOP 10 Goalies in NHL?
I guess Price is unanimous #1...
All Goalies can do is stop the corsi that get thru to the net. (shots)
Low Danger Corsi that get thru are low danger shots.
They are in the x,y area that LD SH go in below league average (less than 8.5%)
High Danger Corsi
They are in the Area that High Dnager shot go in Above League Average (greater than 8.5%)
The average High Danger shot goes in 5 times more than the average low danger shot.
Golaies GA is most affected by the HD shot volume faced.
Cup winners usually have
-3+ top 60 HD Dmen
reduced HD shot volumes
- top 10 HD SH Save% goalies
conf finalists 2
- 2+ top 60 HD Dmen
- top 14 HD save% golaie
the HD shot volume is very critical.
looking at the past:
Dmen can give up 7.00 to 14.00 HD Shot/60 min EVTOI
With the league average for HD save% being .8100
and
League average Low danger Save% .958
it is all about HD shot volume allowed by your D and HD save% from the goalies.
Last 3 years HD Save%
1. Price
2. Talbot; Griess
4. Holtby
5. Halak
6. Jones
7. Elliott; Allen
9. Crawford
10. Lundquist
11. Schnieder; Bernier Bernier faced such a high volume of HD shots in TOR
13. Mrazek
14. Quick; Fluery; Rask; Neuvirth
Golaies
do not score goals;
they do not defend HD penetration
they do not Force misses
they do not block shots.
they stop the puck.
HD shots go in 5 times more than LD shots.
we are seeing a lot of teams give up shooting volume in the Low danger area. to chase
more HD shots this season.
so shot count tells you almost nothing.
if you give LD shots a base value of 1 and High danger shot (5 times more success) a base cont of five.
we can see the factored affect of teams shot volume.
traditionally there were 28-30 shots in a game depending on the season
28 Shot game
18 LD shots X 1 = 18
10 HD X 5 =50
a shot factor of 68
29 Shot game
19.5 LD shot
10.5 HD shot
A shot factor of 72
30 Shot game
19 LD shot
11 HD shots
Shot factor of 74
TOR-LAK Shots
1st:
Toronto 1 LD - 0G; 4 HD - 0G
LAK 9 LD - 0G; 6 HD - 1G
2nd
Toronto 3 LD - 0G; 3 HD - 0G
LAk 4 LD - 0G; 12 HD - 4G
3rd
Toront0 5 LD - 0G; 3 HD - 0G
LAK 6 LD - 0G; 6 HD - 2G
TOR: 19 SH - 0G
9LD X 1
10 HD X 5
Shot factor 59
LAK: 43 shots - 7G
19 LD X 1
24 HD X 5
Shot factor 139/7 = 19.9
OTT-TOR
1st
Ott 8 LD - 1G; 5 HD - 1G
Tor 6 LD - 1G; 3 HD - 1G
2nd
Ott 4 LD - 0G; 4 HD - 1G
TOR 16 LD - 0G; 4 HD - 2G
3rd
Ott 6 LD - 0G; 2 HD - 1G
Tor 8 LD - 0G; 1 HD - 0G
OTt 0LD; 1HD -1G
Tor 0LD; 0HD
Toronto 38 shots
30 lD X 1
8 HD X 5
Shot factor 70/4G 17.5
OTT 30 shots
18 LD X 1
12 LD X 5
Shot factor 78/5G 15.6
it really shows you how your D performed and if the goalie S.... the bed.
1. the lower the power factor the better the Def play.
2. The higher the Power factor ratio (power factor /goals) the better the goaltending.
