Yeah, I think they pay a ton of attention to top prospects in any given year knowing that people will realize and/or remember if they get them right on or wildly wrong, while if they mess up on a later pick or generally lower end prospect at the time of their draft nobody will really care.
I think some people also don’t take into account how a player might evolve or grow from where they were when they were drafted.
For example, Brett Howden is almost exactly a year older than Cody Glass. Cody Glass is often noted as one of the game’s better offensive prospects, whereas Brett Howden has been described as a guy who might not have the highest offensive ceiling.
And yet, at the same point in his D1 season, Howden actually had 4 more goals than Glass does now and only 8 less points overall (through 58 games).
While it’s certainly true that a stat line doesn’t tell the whole story and there are many variables behind those numbers, as someone who has seen a lot of both players I would strongly argue that Howden’s offensive growth and his potential have been undervalued in his post-draft career thus far.
I think Howden has definitely pushed the envelope of what someone might reasonably expect from him. And yet I read reports from people that are at best, outdated, and at worst, probably more fiction than fact.
The point being that the internet has made it very easy for people to share their opinions on things. But not all opinions are created equally. Identifying a top 10 pick as a solid prospect isn’t nearly as impressive as being able to spot good talent in later picks.