Value of: Rangers-Canes

[bernmeister]

This is a deep draft. Like other drafts, 1OA is the head and shoulders top, after that, there's another 3-4 who are a bit more valued, then another couple another cut above. But if you are not top 4 or 5, the pack is a bit closer, and increasingly so as you move out.

The Rangers need to gamble on various deals, overpaying WITHIN REASON, to try and increase their chances for Dahlin. Canes appear to be missing playoffs and a late selection for the lottery. I am guessing their chance of winning 1OA is what, 3-ish percent? selections 2-4 or so, what another 5ish percent at best?

So given this and how deep Canes are at D, esp LD, a scenario that allows NY to trade up w/compensation to Carolina for the bribe could win win. Now that you know where I wuz coming from, let's chat about this....

Carolina 2018 1st
McKeown
Darling
for
Boston 2018 1st
Georgeiv
Marc Staal reduced 5.7 by 2.7 to 3.0

rationale.
Darling clearly not the answer this year. 3 mo yrs remain after this season at 4.15m ea. While Canes have enough cap to carry that, it is an albatross on the roster, which I am sure Carolina remembers how Ward has played this role in recent years, unfortunately.
Rangers have the best goaltending coach in NHL, Benoit Allaire. He helped Ondrej Pavelec find his game, to the shock of all, and he was a solid backup to Hank this year. We can take on Darling at full pop, gamble we can recover his form, and deal him to a club needing a goalie solution due to emergency or otherwise.

Staal, finally untethered from the traffic cone Girardi, while not as mobile or otherwise in any way what he once was, continues to improve from eye/concussion injuries over the years and is now a decent 3LD if played 10-12 mins per nite [not double that]. Change in cut off from this season, next year, IF you do have to buy him out, it is affordable cap wise. Even if Rangers trade Skjei and manage to ditch Smith, they will still have to create space for multiple LDs going forward. This gives Carolina adequate at min 3LD depth who is even moveable at 3.0, more movable than Darling as is.
Plus Canes pick up on cap [same term, 4.15 - 3.0 = 1.15 savings].

Georgiev is the young kid they hang their hat on in net, and with NY backscratch, are now able to re-deploy that $ either elsewhere in lineup w/Fs, or can address net issues. Ward expiring. Is he totally broken down, not worth 1 yr at less than 1m? Pavelec will not supplant Hank or Darling, and Rangers have guys they want to move up while waiting for Lundqvist's replacement, Shestorykin, either season following next or, at latest, the one following thereafter.
Canes have $ to look at Mrazek or others, all 1 yr deals as Georgiev proves himself and Carolina gets best fit to partner with him. Any of these guys can go off form at any time but risk is minimized with min term deals, Pavelec was 1.6 this year, a 1 yr deal. Should be able to add him if nec.

McKeown is the price of Georgiev, but Carolina can afford it depth wise.

So for the above backscratch -- let's work w/round #s here --- Canes give up 10ish OA to move back a projected 20-25 is slots retaining a 1st this year.

Deal?

Click to read more...

 

[GoldiFox]

Canes need two things: A stable #1G and high-end forward talent.

1) Georgiev is not a #1 or a guy that the Canes will realistically bet next season on. If the Canes are shopping a top-10 pick for a goalie then Washington is a much better option.
2) Canes aren’t giving up a top-10 pick. This is their primary opportunity to find an offensive talent. If they do it will be to bring in immediate roster help, not a Backup goalie and Marc Staal

I get that NYR wants more top-10 picks. Everybody does. Canes do too. I think you’d have to add Kreider onto this deal for the Canes to even consider.

 

[staalgood]

I don't view Georgiev as high as others, but I don't think this is a bad deal. Like Aho Mitakuye mentioned, I would prefer to go after Grubauer, but I would consider this.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Sorry Bern.

1) Canes need elite talent as much as they need a goalie. Moving a likely top 10 pick in a deep draft isn't a good idea for Carolina.
2) Staal is a LHD. No need for him with Slavin, Hanifin, Fleury, Bean and Dhalbeck. Becomes dead money so might as well just buy out Darling in that case.
3) Georgiev isn't proven enough for the Canes to take yet another gamble (Lack, Darling), particularly including a 1st rounder.

I don't know enough about Georgiev. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick is what I'd offer or add in a prospect if need be, but not parting with a 1st in this type of deal.

 

[MinJaBen]

No thank you. The last thing we need is another LHD and to give up a RHD.

 

[bernmeister]

Canes need two things: A stable #1G and high-end forward talent.

1) Georgiev is not a #1 or a guy that the Canes will realistically bet next season on. If the Canes are shopping a top-10 pick for a goalie then Washington is a much better option.
2) Canes aren’t giving up a top-10 pick. This is their primary opportunity to find an offensive talent. If they do it will be to bring in immediate roster help, not a Backup goalie and Marc Staal

I get that NYR wants more top-10 picks. Everybody does. Canes do too. I think you’d have to add Kreider onto this deal for the Canes to even consider.

Georgiev is obviously not yet the established, stable 1G.
But esp given the Benny A tutelage, he is a good bet to buy low.

Darling restricts options to acquiring or developing that top G.
You have to pay to move him, or you take chances and HOPE he recovers form. No prob if you prefer to go that way, but this is reasonable cap-player shuffling that works to clearing space for alternative.

Kreider inclusion is WAY off for a 10th.

NYR not moving Kreider except if it is with Zib and we get a super high premium return including much better pick [like EDM or BUF] which recognizes this synergy and how good it would work with McDavid or Eichel.

Not sure what you could offer of interest in lieu of the 2018 Canes 1st to induce NY to take on Darling esp since Hank is 8.5m.

 

[bernmeister]

Sorry Bern.

1) Canes need elite talent as much as they need a goalie. Moving a likely top 10 pick in a deep draft isn't a good idea for Carolina.
2) Staal is a LHD. No need for him with Slavin, Hanifin, Fleury, Bean and Dhalbeck. Becomes dead money so might as well just buy out Darling in that case.
3) Georgiev isn't proven enough for the Canes to take yet another gamble (Lack, Darling), particularly including a 1st rounder.

I don't know enough about Georgiev. Maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick is what I'd offer or add in a prospect if need be, but not parting with a 1st in this type of deal.

No apology nec., my friend.

1 canes need elite talent too is justified enough basis to not do this deal.
It is a crapshoot the further away you get from best selections.
Like Rangers got Chytil last year.
If redone, he's closer to top 10.

The point was not to surrender a 1st, but to flip one.
If you don't consider NY backscratch worth dropping an estimated 20-25 slots, then fair enough.

As to rest of it, Staal is superfluous, but would think that is better alternative that buyout of Darling!

pt 2 Short term Staal, until relocated, could be useful fit. Say you get a great deal for Hanifin, this helps.

pt 3. Georgeiv - NY will not sell low. Will hold and let him show he is worth at least decent if not serious return. Currently McKeown works 1 for 1.

Again, the late 1st Boston means this is moving down an appreciable number of positions, but is not a complete loss of a pick.

peace out.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Not a bad proposal. Value is pretty damn close, needs and timing are off, unfortunately. If MStaal was RHD and the Canes end up in the 12-14 range, I'd probably pull the trigger. That probably speaks more to the lengths I'd go to rid ourselves of Darling, but I digress.

 

[GoldiFox]

Georgiev is obviously not yet the established, stable 1G.
But esp given the Benny A tutelage, he is a good bet to buy low.

Darling restricts options to acquiring or developing that top G.
You have to pay to move him, or you take chances and HOPE he recovers form. No prob if you prefer to go that way, but this is reasonable cap-player shuffling that works to clearing space for alternative.
..Not sure what you could offer of interest in lieu of the 2018 Canes 1st to induce NY to take on Darling esp since Hank is 8.5m.

Canes have $25+ million in Cap space for next year. Burying Darling in the AHL or buying out his contract would hurt, but it is doable. The Canes are not in such a bind that they have to hand out 1st rounders to entice someone take the contract. If anything they are more likely to take on a bad contract for assets.

Kreider inclusion is WAY off for a 10th.

NYR not moving Kreider except if it is with Zib and we get a super high premium return including much better pick [like EDM or BUF] which recognizes this synergy and how good it would work with McDavid or Eichel.

I'm saying that a deal around Kreider for #10 OA is more likely to fit the Canes needs if your goal is to acquire top picks.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

What the f*** that's abysmal for Carolina

 

[TGWL]

Georgiev is obviously not yet the established, stable 1G.
But esp given the Benny A tutelage, he is a good bet to buy low.

But they're not buying low. They're giving up a top 10 pick, McKeown, swapping Darling with Staal for a late first and Georgiev. If they send Darling down it's basically the same cap hit as replacing him with Staal.

It's not completely one-sided, but it's not buying low.

 

[bernmeister]

Canes have $25+ million in Cap space for next year. Burying Darling in the AHL or buying out his contract would hurt, but it is doable. The Canes are not in such a bind that they have to hand out 1st rounders to entice someone take the contract. If anything they are more likely to take on a bad contract for assets.
....

No ?
The thrust of what I meant there which I did not highlight properly is there is a value to clearing cap [if you have the ability to spend $, which Canes do], and there is a value to just building by adding assets esp smart drafting -- effective and less costly, but risks somewhat unknown/unproven prospects v. known established players, and takes more time.

There are multiple good scenarios for CAR. One COULD be:
do my deal
use Georgiev as a build piece and with Pavs or other as a short term stopgap, take your time to find that top G [if Georgiev does not/quickly enough emerge as one].
Trade Hanifin, but only if you hold out for best return, such as Nylander.
look for good deals on F upgrades.
If you make enough EXTRA cap space, you might be able to entice Tavares, tho I wouldn't pay that $ for him. Let him go home to Leafs, and let them send you Nylander. win win.
Now wait the year. Don't pay crazy rental for Karlsson. After next season, he is UFA. You have to be careful how far you jump off the bridge as to term. But that is your RD. Also Doughty.
Best case scenario, you may be able to get them BOTH to take more per year for only 4 years. Again, that needs MAX cap.
Don't eat Darling. Trade to NY. After next year, can move M. Staal at 3 per for remaining easy enuf. By then, Faulk is buh bye. Darling/Staal + Faulk is close to 9m there. Add to 25m ish you said. Even paying Nylander RFA and other roster juggling, has 20-22m available for Karlsson and Doughty.
No guarantees, but it's a plan.

....I'm saying that a deal around Kreider for #10 OA is more likely to fit the Canes needs if your goal is to acquire top picks.

Understood, but that level overpay commands more than 10OA.

I'd do Namest. and Spooner for your pick estimated at 10OA slightly +/-, pre draft unprotected, b'c again, I'm doing this to add a few percent more increased chance for Dahlin. Something like that as a core, possible adds.
But no Kreider for that.

 

[bernmeister]

Not a bad proposal. Value is pretty damn close, needs and timing are off, unfortunately. If MStaal was RHD and the Canes end up in the 12-14 range, I'd probably pull the trigger. That probably speaks more to the lengths I'd go to rid ourselves of Darling, but I digress.

Thanks!
I agree the value is close.
you may be right as to value/timing off.

Feel free to tweak w/counter.
Rangers' BAllaire can restore Darling, but we are not going through all that for free. On the other hand, I get the flip side of the coin.
Maybe we can come up with something.
If not, no big whoop.

 

[bernmeister]

But they're not buying low. They're giving up a top 10 pick, McKeown, swapping Darling with Staal for a late first and Georgiev. If they send Darling down it's basically the same cap hit as replacing him with Staal.

It's not completely one-sided, but it's not buying low.

1. They ARE buying low in the sense they are getting Georgiev early. If he stays, we selectively play Hank to rest him and up his win totals next year, we can add to Georgiev's value before flipping him once Shesty is ready to come over. Thus, as is Georgiev now is cut rate discount as opposed to over next season + as he shows increasingly he can cut the mustard. Same is true w/McKeown.

2. Darling as is does not sell well. He has the stigma of defective, a lemon car buy. It is an acceptable risk for NYR to gamble Allaire can repair and up his value, but not for anyone else, pretty much.
Staal on the other hand, is serviceable as a 3LD, but overpriced; reduce him to 3 per, and he is totally flippable.
So Canes pay, but they are getting rid of the harder to move Darling as is for the easier to move discounted Staal. That is a significant consideration. Also, Darling has no value at this pt, except to hope to return to form and reclaim his job. Staal as a 3LD, or a placeholder who can step into 3LD if they move Hanifin for Nylander, that does have value for them.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Why give up a Carolina 1st for Georgiev and scrap?

 

[staalgood]

Why give up a Carolina 1st for Georgiev and scrap?

Probably to get rid of the dumpster fire named Scott Darling.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Probably to get rid of the dumpster fire named Scott Darling.

I pity the Rangers.

 

[bernmeister]

Why give up a Carolina 1st for Georgiev and scrap?

Not scrap.
Read the thread pls.

 

[Vancouver Canucks]

Not scrap.
Read the thread pls.

BOS first-round pick? Okay.....but Staal? This is more of a cap dump trade than anything else.

 

[bernmeister]

BOS first-round pick? Okay.....but Staal? This is more of a cap dump trade than anything else.

pls read post 14, #2.
Conclusion
Darling is largely unmoveable as is, NYR an exception due to G coach.
Believe it or not, Marc Staal at 3.0 per is highly movable.

Georg. - McK
considering =

the rest is how to pay to flip for the better pick.
better pick
v
recovery of cap +.

 

[Captain Mountain]

So, in exchange for Carolina going from a high first to a low one (a substantial drop off in likelihood of getting an NHLer and a good one), an ok prospect that may have bottom 6 potential and clearing Darling off the books, they get a a D-man they don't need (and ensures their cap savings on Darling is only around one million) and an unproven, inexperienced goaltender.

Scott Darling has been brutal, but I just don't see why Carolina even considers this. Better to just see if they can get Darling going next year (new goaltending coach, bring in a guy to platoon or be 1A that's better than Ward, etc.).

 

[bernmeister]

...

I don't mind the criticism; every time each of us posts, that is what he/she is asking, comes w/the territory of all comments. I only ask things be represented accurately.

So, in exchange for Carolina going from a high first to a low one (a substantial drop off in likelihood of getting an NHLer and a good one), [...]
It is not automatically a high 1st. It starts at, ballpark, end of the top third
or beginning of mid second tier of 10 picks. It could go higher or lower, but that risk is inherent as concession to the deal.
10-ish OA is nice but it is not a guarantee.
You DO drop some percentage with the swap, but you wind up with a very late 1st in a deep draft. So ballpark, this is the year to do this, because the late selection this year would still return a talent comparable to a mid 1st in a standard year.
Then, figure this is a D heavy draft, and you are deep at D.
So yes, you will lose out on the very, very best Fs, but with Dahlin at 1, you figure those go already after 10. Maybe not. But so many clubs need Ds, you may not get the very, very best of the Fs, but you are highly probable to get a great F when you do pick.

[...] an ok prospect that may have bottom 6 potential and clearing Darling off the books, they get a a D-man they don't need (and ensures their cap savings on Darling is only around one million) [...]
The error here is you assume Staal stays the same length of time as Darling.
Staal is more moveable than Darling right now and is entirely portable at 3mper. We have considered to buy him out b'c we have too many LD as it is, and held off cause this was not the year numbers-wise to go there. However, beginning next year, it is much, much less a cap hit burden. He is fully moveable. In between he is a useful stopgap if you move Hanifin for Nylander, which you should do.

[...] and an unproven, inexperienced goaltender.
Guilty as charged, but the flip side of the coin is this a kid who has demonstrated results over a short duration. Significantly, he has been directly tutored by the best goaltender coach in NHL, possibly all of hockey. He is a build piece, w/no reason to assume he can never be a starter. And you get him cheap by buying now. Wait til he has more under his belt waiting for Shesty to get here and the price goes up.

Scott Darling has been brutal, but I just don't see why Carolina even considers this.
Make a clean break, recover the cap completely and use it to try again.

Better to just see if they can get Darling going next year (new goaltending coach, bring in a guy to platoon or be 1A that's better than Ward, etc.).
That's reasonable on the surface, but what makes you think you can revive his game? Sure, you might get lucky, but for what little this is overall, it's better to just worry if the Rangers can do that and move on. If you don't you could be stuck with him until... who knows.

 

[One Winged Angel]

It's not a terrible idea but it doesn't seem like it helps Carolina.

Kreider for the 10th overall would be something I'd be interested in discussing as someone mentioned it before.

 

[staalgood]

I've seen some ugly things as a Carolina Hurricane fan. Until this season, watching Jamie McBain try to slap the puck down the ice, miss and backhand it right past Justin Peters was probably one of the ugliest. Then this year happened and the guy to replace Cam Ward was given a lengthy contract. He proceed to look like one of the worst goaltenders in history 3 out of every 4 games he played. The afternoon he gave up 8 goals to Toronto was probably the worst, but there have been SOOO MANY BAD GAMES. I'm thinking of starting a GoFundMe account to buy him out.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Pretty sure the Hurricanes would bury Darling in the AHL for another year to see if he can figure it out then buy him out if not WAAAAAY before they'd take on a declining Marc Staal (even at #3M) for the next 3 seasons. If he were a RHD, MAYBE, but not as a LHD which is probably our deepest position. No incentive/reason for us to give up assets to dump Darling's contract.

Georgeiv is nowhere near proven enough to be worth dropping ~18 spots in the 1st round of the draft...we could win the lottery and be #1, BOS could win the cup and be #31. And then give up one of our few RHD prospects on top of that?

No, just...no...