OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Offseason at the Crossroads

[DJ Spinoza]

Whoops, yeah I mean there's essentially one spot for the bullpen. Keep switching them up because there's one spot for the rotation too, but I think that's basically between Lyles, Brault, and Kingham at this point. Liriano looks like he might still be able to be used in a creative situation, i.e. as an opener, but I don't think he's up for much more than that at this point. His success was always so irrational that I don't know that it could be ruled out, but it would take a major resurgence.

In a certain sense, it does make sense to kind of push Brault back towards a depth SP role. With his new delivery, I guess he could be aiming to make himself viable as a reliever too, but I'd be surprised. Both Lyons and Liriano seem to have a leg up in terms of that final bullpen spot, and Brault still has an option left to go back to AAA and be depth. My guess right now is that that's sort of the plan, unless he really impresses in spring training and Lyles falters, at which point maybe he can take the job.

But right now, it seems like we've created a situation where there'll be 1 rotation spot and 2-3 bullpen spots, depending on how things shake out with options and so forth. I think Kingham is a lock to make the roster, and at this point it seems like Burdi will make it for two months at least, which basically makes for a rotation spot between Lyles, Kingham, and Brault, and a relief spot between potentially some of them, as well as Lyons, Liriano, Maurer. I'd just assume that Brault will initially end up in AAA so that he can stay stretched out as emergency depth.

If that's really the correct read on the situation, then IMO it's not terrible, but it's still a half measure. As a LOOGY option Liriano might be just as good as Sipp or whoever else, but the 5th spot still isn't clearly settled, and while we have an array of mediocre options, which might work well for eventually allowing Keller to force the issue of a callup (or Brault, on a less expected angle), we absolutely cannot afford to be giving away any starts. That situation would be quickly augmented with a signing like Gio. I understand angling for some upside, but I have a feeling we might really miss Nova's 200 IP clockwork performance, which we gave up just to save a little bit of cash that isn't being put back into the team.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Interesting wrinkle, but one that makes some sense. Has to have the horizon of making the MLB team at some point towards the end of spring training, and then can go to AAA for a bit as a depth option, but not indefinitely.

 

[cookthebooks]

the quiet parts about joe ricketts being said out loud in his own voice has really highlighted how truly terrible our system of franchise ownership is. every team should be the packers.

 

[ResignCraigAdams]

These signings are garbage.

 

[Winger for Hire]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Seems like a decent depth investment for the bullpen, but not the cheapest one. Another in what I imagine will be a slow drip of meh moves as we get into spring training.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I predict attendance to be down again this year. A totally uninspired offseason. I hope Kang stays healthy and out of trouble and manages to mash like old times. We may desperately need it.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yeah, I think the only thing that can even remotely salvage attendance is if the team starts out white hot, and even then, people are going to be pretty slow to attending when the weather is bad. Given how much MLB sucks overall, and the Pirates basically doing nothing but a reboot on the 2018 campaign, I'm not sure what else they can expect.

I think I was misunderstanding the Koehler deal - he won't get paid when he's hurt, obviously, and I guess there's a big gap between those numbers and whatever he'd get if he was in AAA. Again, not really the worst for a depth move, looking ahead to 2020, but very on brand meh...

I haven't kept up on the news much this week, but there are apparently some rumblings about a universal DH. At this point I halfway think that would hurt the offense, because it'd introduce another lineup spot where we can at best hope to have someone who is NL-average.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I'm pretty sure Bob Walk's senior quote was "ban the DH"...and I agree.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I predict attendance to be down again this year. A totally uninspired offseason. I hope Kang stays healthy and out of trouble and manages to mash like old times. We may desperately need it.

I disagree a little bit, and here's why: the Steelers and the Pens had/are having down years. It's very possible that the Penguins miss the playoffs playing the way they are which would be a boon to Pirates attendance/interest especially in April. Last April, the thought of the 3-peat plus the terrible weather killed attendance when the Pirates were playing well.

It also pulls Nutting off the hook a little bit. I do think Nutting sucks, but the success of the Steelers & Penguins is one of the biggest arguments used against him. If the Penguins miss the playoffs of lose 4-1 in the first round, Pirates management would be happy.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I don't think it's going to have that big of an effect, IMHO. The only way I see that effecting the Pirates is if they get off to an insane start to the season. There's just too much broken trust right now for anything besides a couple big MLB signings and/or a super fast start to the season to reverse the trend. Even with a deadline attendance bounce when the team made moves to spark some interest last season, they drew 1.4m, which was down from 1.91m.

And the 3-peat wasn't the reason for sluggish early season attendance, it was trading away their two most popular and productive players without replacing them.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'd go slightly further: the only thing that is going to significantly change attendance is a mindblowing move like Machado, or else a return to an actual playoff chase. Like almost every other city, especially smaller ones, Pittsburghers are incredibly fairweather. Even middling success can be discounting by average fans when it doesn't appear as though the team is improving, setting aside the consistency and viability of thinking like that.

I'd guess attendance might take another slight hit, but really we're bottoming back out to the baseline of whoever is going to go no matter what. And since the economics of baseball make being profitable at least largely disconnected from attendance, it doesn't really effect things too much other than as a generic blemish on the team.

We could sign somebody who might excite many of us like Marwin, and maybe that'd save a little bit of face, but I don't think it matters too much. Even if Josh Bell breaks out as a superstar or something, the damage is already mostly done with this team. They have to get back to the playoffs or else make a massive signing, and the likelihood of either is pretty low.

 

[Winger for Hire]

PECOTA has the Buccos 5th in the Central at 81-81.

So bad news, they're project to be as good as the Reds.

Good news, there's only a 8 win difference between the Brewers and Pirates, so some luck and bounces and a streak or two can change the fortunes. As DJ pointed out, the Central dogfight can have its benefits.... as long as the Pirates aren't doormats.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't think it's going to have that big of an effect, IMHO. The only way I see that effecting the Pirates is if they get off to an insane start to the season. There's just too much broken trust right now for anything besides a couple big MLB signings and/or a super fast start to the season to reverse the trend. Even with a deadline attendance bounce when the team made moves to spark some interest last season, they drew 1.4m, which was down from 1.91m.

And the 3-peat wasn't the reason for sluggish early season attendance, it was trading away their two most popular and productive players without replacing them.

Sports fans in Pittsburgh have a finite amount of time - and money - to devote to sports following. If the Penguins are better, it would adversely impact attendance and TV viewership. Weather would - and did - also impact April attendance. Then by the time the Penguins season was over, the Pirates went through their terrible May. At the very least, I would expect Pirates TV viewership to pick up this April if the Penguins miss the playoffs.

I think trust between fans and the front office is at an all-time low and the Cole/Cutch trades still hang over their head. Having said that, Cole & Cutch's falloff from 2013-2015 from 2016-2017 were a huge part of the problem with those teams. If 2016 and 2017 get the Cole/Cutch performances they'd shown previously, they would have stayed in the hunt.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Even though the Pirates' own approach has left more than a lot to be desired this offseason, I'm actually increasingly confident about the divisional dogfight. I know I've already repeated myself multiple times in this regard, but I think so much of it is going to come down to pitching, and the Pirates have the raw elements to be very good in this regard, especially if Archer bounces back significantly.

I think the Cardinals pitching will probably be better, and that they'll end up being the team to beat in the division, but the bullpen is far from a lock given Miller's constant health concerns and Hicks' youth. It will be especially important to win games against them for us.

The big caveat for me is whether or not we are going to end up giving away every fifth game for a lot of the early part of the season. When you are a 78-85 win team, you absolutely can't afford to give away possible wins, and the #5 rotation spot seems like it could be in danger of causing that, even if the other spots go absolutely bananas. For this reason I continue to try to pump the brakes on thinking we have a better chance than most do, because there's the potential for a kind of inconsistency of weak spot that will totally sink us over the long haul, as well as something more catastrophic in the event of a major injury (obvious, basically eternal problem) or real step back from somebody like Williams.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Goldy being in St. Louis gives me the dread of the Pujols days. Yeesh

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Looks like the Phillies are close to getting Realmuto for Alfaro, Sixto Sanchez +. Deal still not done, and with the way this offseason is going, maybe something weird happens, but pretty interesting sort of play by the Phillies, assuming they are going to turn around and sign at least one of Machado and Harper. They focus on swooping in and getting the best player available via trade, which undercuts several contenders who are unwilling to spend.

Part of me wonders if the Phillies' "stupid money" might mean nabbing one of Harper/Machado and then another free agent on top of that.

We'll see how it plays out -- the Phillies were sort of a darkhorse for Realmuto, so if anything that helps Cervelli's market stay somewhat competitive, but the cap between their values still makes me question what kind of return we'd get. I imagine we'd be able to move him, but simply moving him only makes sense if it were a ploy to sign Machado. This won't be super popular, but moving him for the right return is still a smart move even though it would be one more f*** you to the fans. The problem is, it's only a right move from a consistently-pursued small market strategy, which is not what we've been up to. It'd be the final culmination of totally throwing 2019 into the garbage for the sake of maybe getting better in a future season, unless we included additional value to get back immediate impact like a Taylor or Stripling.

 

[Winger for Hire]

SRod to Philly

Hurdle Weeps

Huntington Plans Midseason Trade

 

[TimmyD]

SRod to Philly

Hurdle Weeps

Huntington Plans Midseason Trade

Marte+Cervelli for SRod

 

[Winger for Hire]

Come on... they just got JT
At least be realistic

Marte and Keller

 

[domaug]

the Gatorade coolers in Pittsburgh take a sigh of relief

 

[DJ Spinoza]

We can also rest easy, now Philly isn't going to get Machado...

In all seriousness, I think they are laser-focused on getting Harper, since the LH bat would perfectly complement the kinds of bats they already have, who are mostly RH (especially Hoskins and Realmuto). It seems questionable if Harper wants to go there, I guess, so we'll see, but my money is on them winning out. There's part of me that thinks this insane offseason might allow them to get both Harper and Machado, especially if one of the two is willing to sign a smaller three year deal for very high AAV. Or they might get Harper and then also Keuchel.

It seems obvious that we are basically pressing full steam ahead with what we've got, maybe adding a couple more minor league depth options as bargain deals while this free agent mess lingers. Harper going to Philly and removing them from the Machado running was always what I thought the key first step on a Machado to Pittsburgh plan unfolding was, but there's not much point in even discussing it further. I suspect now that the Realmuto deal is done, the big pieces will fall quickly, since the contending teams all need to pretty much put up or shut up at this point.

I think the only fool's hope around Machado is if the White Sox deal remains middling and we suddenly find the drive to do a 30M AAV, and Machado is willing to sign a deal that only guarantees him three years. Maybe there's some hope there, though as Kafka says, not for us, since the CBA expires then. I have the sense that Harper is more likely to get the long-term deal, and a number of other teams might be able to entice Machado on a short deal with extremely high AAV. Maybe even 3 years, 100M, with the structure being 35M, 35M, 30M, and an opt-out after two years if he wants to test the market before the CBA expires. But at this point you have to also assume that Harper may not get the lengthy deal, and one or both of them might even threaten to sit out.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

https://sports.theonion.com/bryce-harper-asks-if-phillies-willing-to-move-to-anothe-1832462398

 

[Winger for Hire]

Pirates Prospects site has an article about how Pirates farmhands did in winter leagues:

- some minor league free agent we signed named Alfredo Reyes ripped the league apart and played everywhere.

- Pablo Reyes did good, but article notes for someone with big league experience, more was expected.

- Erik Gonzalez had a bunch of errors at SS, and hit .227/.243/.288

- a bunch of other hitters and pitchers played but didn’t play a lot.

- Jesus Liranzo (who was at AAA last yr) pitched really well, .86 whip, bunch of Ks.

- Jose Osuna player in Venezuela and crushed it, playing mostly RF.

- Gage Hinz hadn’t really pitched much since summer 2017. Played in PR, and had 1.08 era and .92 whip

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

https://sports.theonion.com/bryce-harper-asks-if-phillies-willing-to-move-to-anothe-1832462398

Ha.....im sure hes well liked in Philly now