OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

[sovietsanta87]

Pitching Skenes in AAA would be like the Penguins starting Crosby in WBS his rookie season so he could work on faceoffs.

65 pitches today. Next step is probably 75 then 85-90 then the show

 

[ChaosAgent]

Pitching Skenes in AAA would be like the Penguins starting Crosby in WBS his rookie season so he could work on faceoffs.

If it bought them a year longer until UFA and on an entry-level deal, they would have done it.

 

[MrBrightside]

If it bought them a year longer until UFA and on an entry-level deal, they would have done it.

That date has passed. At this point the only benefit to keeping him in AAA is Super 2.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

To be clear, I am fully on the "Skenes should be in MLB" train, and I think there are many ways to do it. For example, as he builds up, he could basically be a piggyback starter with Jones. Doing that for 3-4 starts would build up Skenes further and also limit Jones' innings some in the early part of the season.

That said, the one area where I can see taking it slower in terms of the player himself and no other considerations is with respect to maintaining the poise and command deeper into starts. It's not easy to tell from the GIFs or final stat lines, but as the game got into the 3rd and 4th, he had some noncompetitive pitches and got into disadvantageous counts. Those are things MLB batters will exploit, even though Skenes regained poise and eventually got the job done, even for example after having to go into the stretch because his infield couldn't make a routine play.

It's hard to say this with a lot of certainty, because the AAA camerawork is so so, and also because with this lineup, it did basically seem like several opposing batters were just in full take no matter what mode. He threw some pitches around the plate that I was surprised didn't get chases.

In any case, this is just nitpicking around the edges. The stats don't tell everything, but they do obviously tell the tale that he is striking everyone out and giving up almost nothing else at all. With this in mind, I do think I can talk myself into the idea of getting him to 85 pitches a time or two and then picking a good debut situation for him. Honestly, Friday May 3rd looks pretty solid on that front. He gets the Rockies in PNC, and then the next start is the Angels.

Edit: to the point MrB just made, if we don't shoot for the Rockies/Angels homestand in a few weeks, then the next opportunity is Giants at home towards the third week of May. Once you pass that, it's a game of excuses until Super Two might pass in the second week of June. I have been thinking that we will drag it to Super Two, but the way it's shaping up, I'm less sure. I guess if we "build" him to 75 next time (it was 65 tonight), then 85 the time after that, and then say we want 2-3 starts at 85-95, then it gets closer to a situation where that's possible. But from quick napkin math, even 5-6 more starts only gets you to May 18/May 23 or so.

 

[MrBrightside]

 

[Empoleon8771]

That date has passed. At this point the only benefit to keeping him in AAA is Super 2.

He'll be up at some point in May after he gets stretched out a bit more, I don't see the issue here.

 

[MrBrightside]

He'll be up at some point in May after he gets stretched out a bit more, I don't see the issue here.

The "issue" here is that he's only going to throw so many pitches this year and wasting any of them in AAA is just that, wasting them. I accept the argument that one wants the extra year of control, but that date has come and gone, and he's gaining absolutely nothing by blowing away a bunch of overmatched minor league hitters. If the idea is to "stretch him out," as DJ outlined, there's absolutely no reason he can't be throwing 3-4 innings here in a piggyback role. Oh, and there's also the fact this pitching staff is in some disarray with Gonzales hurt and the bullpen being a tire fire - if they are at all serious about competing for a playoff spot, the finite innings he will pitch in 2024 will be more useful here than in Indy. To each his own, I guess.

 

[Fogel]

He at most sees a lineup 1.25 times since he is maybe going 3.1 or 3.2 innings. The truer tests will be when he goes through a lineup 2+ times and he isn't getting there at 60 pitches. I'm conservative so I'd rather see him do that at AAA than try to do that for the first time in the majors and potentially get hammered by batters who sit on the fastball.

 

[MrBrightside]

He at most sees a lineup 1.25 times since he is maybe going 3.1 or 3.2 innings. The truer tests will be when he goes through a lineup 2+ times and he isn't getting there at 60 pitches. I'm conservative so I'd rather see him do that at AAA than try to do that for the first time in the majors and potentially get hammered by batters who sit on the fastball.

So why is he only at 60 pitches anyway? He started spring training at the same time as everyone else. We're two months in and he's only "stretched out" to 60 pitches? The idea that he would somehow be traumatized if and when some major leaguers have success against him is silly - you can learn at the major league level too, and striking out 21 guys per 9 IP in the AAA is not helping you learn anything.



I truly feel like Pirates ownership and management has the fanbase so conditioned to "just wait for these guys in a year or two" that people are accepting of this stuff. Jackson Holliday and Wyatt Langford aren't tearing it up either, but there's always going to be an adjustment when you hit the majors and the idea that a player has to be ready to step in and absolutely dominate from day one or he's "not ready" is just a fallacy.

 

[Fogel]

I think it has been way too slow on the Pirates part for him to still be at 60 pitches. They are acting as if he didn't pitch in spring training. Skenes has faced 9/11/13/14 batters in each of his starts (I can't quickly find his pitch totals). Contrast that with Chandler, 15/14/21 batters in his 3 starts or even Jack Leiter in his minor starts, 17/16/24. The only two explanations I can think of is they have him on a very slow ramp up schedule or they are being very mindful of a hard cap on innings pitched/batters they have for him for the year. Either way, they are being way more conservative than I would like to see. I still am adamant that he needs to start going through the lineup multiple times before getting promoted.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I think it would be fun to platoon jones and skenes 4 innings each

Just an entire game of slightly different heaters burning batters

Video game shit

 

[Fogel]

I think it would be fun to platoon jones and skenes 4 innings each

Just an entire game of slightly different heaters burning batters

Video game shit

I would expect that type of thinking from an org like the Rays or Dodgers.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I think it has been way too slow on the Pirates part for him to still be at 60 pitches. They are acting as if he didn't pitch in spring training. Skenes has faced 9/11/13/14 batters in each of his starts (I can't quickly find his pitch totals). Contrast that with Chandler, 15/14/21 batters in his 3 starts or even Jack Leiter in his minor starts, 17/16/24. The only two explanations I can think of is they have him on a very slow ramp up schedule or they are being very mindful of a hard cap on innings pitched/batters they have for him for the year. Either way, they are being way more conservative than I would like to see. I still am adamant that he needs to start going through the lineup multiple times before getting promoted.

He likely has a cap of inning around 150 (maybe 160) if they would be in the hunt down the stretch.

At 30 starts thats 5 innings per with 10 break glass in case of emergencyinnings in reserve.

If they slow play the IP they can bank innings for use down the stretch/in the playoffs if everything goes right.

Plus the obvious, in which slow ramp ip show help with preventing injury.

 

[MrBrightside]

He likely has a cap of inning around 150 (maybe 160) if they would be in the hunt down the stretch.

At 30 starts thats 5 innings per with 10 break glass in case of emergencyinnings in reserve.

If they slow play the IP they can bank innings for use down the stretch/in the playoffs if everything goes right.

Plus the obvious, in which slow ramp ip show help with preventing injury.

Eh, I don't know that "slow ramp up" helps with preventing injury. If it does, why are they risking Jones' health by having him throw 90 pitches in early April?

I don't think anyone really knows how to prevent arm injuries or else that's what everyone would do, but the explosion in the number has "coincided" with the focus on spin rate and velocity while starters go far less deep into games. You don't want guys throwing 120 pitches or anything, but I think having Skenes throw 60 pitches at 100+ with max spin rate is far more likely to do harm than having him throw 90-100 paced pitches.

And again, innings are innings. He can be "ramping up" here following Falter or Priester or whatever. If he has a cap, which I would agree he does, minor league innings both count toward it and add no value to the ML team.

 

[MrBrightside]

It’s Time for the Pirates To Call up Paul Skenes

Pittsburgh’s top prospect is making it clear that he is ready to face big league hitters just as the team is showing it might contend in a tight NL Central.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Now, even without looking at this through the cynical lens of service time shenanigans, you can understand why the Pirates are being conservative with Skenes, though you certainly don’t have to agree with what they’re doing. As noted, Skenes doesn’t have a lot of professional experience and they are trying to keep his workload down. He throws the ball ridiculously hard, and extreme velocity does come with the risk of elbow damage and, therefore, Tommy John surgery. But that risk will be there at whatever level he’s throwing, and the whole purpose of giving a pitcher minor league experience is for him to learn how to get big league hitters out. I’m a believer in the idea that you have to challenge a prospect, and the only players who can challenge Skenes at this point are in the majors.

Besides, the Pirates can still manage Skenes’ workload in the majors. They can continue to give him three-inning appearances and ramp him up gradually with some creativity. Let him start and throw those three-inning specials or tandem starts or just have him pitch three or four innings in relief when the opportunity arises. Even if they’re not confident enough in his durability to start him, Skenes can certainly throw quality bullpen innings and reduce the workload of the rest of the ‘pen. Earl Weaver, my favorite manager ever both for objective and subjective reasons (hey, I’m from Baltimore), was certainly quite happy to break starters in as relievers for a while. Jim Palmer, Doyle Alexander, Scott McGregor, Dennis Martinez, and Mike Flanagan all spent good chunks of time as relievers before Weaver put them into the rotation.

This becomes even more of an imperative when you consider where the Pirates are in the standings. If they were playing like the White Sox, maybe calling up Skenes in a furious attempt to avoid losing 110 games wouldn’t be worth upsetting the apple cart. The Pirates may have cooled down since their torrid start, but at 11-8, they are just a game out of first place in the NL Central. ZiPS currently projects the Pirates to have a 10.3% chance of winning the division and a 23.3% chance of making the postseason. If Skenes throws 100 innings in the majors this year, rather than the 60 that ZiPS currently projects when doing its season simulations, Pittsburgh’s odds to win the division climb to 14.2% and its probability to snag a playoff berth jumps to 28.9%. In a tight NL Central race, with all five teams having a plausible shot at winning the division, every game truly matters.

For years, the Pirates have been sacrificing the present to build for the future, so they shouldn’t sacrifice that future to play for a premature present. That said, because Skenes is clearly ready to face big league hitters, there’s no point in keeping him in the minors. It’s time for the Pirates to promote him a

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Eh, I don't know that "slow ramp up" helps with preventing injury. If it does, why are they risking Jones' health by having him throw 90 pitches in early April?

I don't think anyone really knows how to prevent arm injuries or else that's what everyone would do, but the explosion in the number has "coincided" with the focus on spin rate and velocity while starters go far less deep into games. You don't want guys throwing 120 pitches or anything, but I think having Skenes throw 60 pitches at 100+ with max spin rate is far more likely to do harm than having him throw 90-100 paced pitches.

And again, innings are innings. He can be "ramping up" here following Falter or Priester or whatever. If he has a cap, which I would agree he does, minor league innings both count toward it and add no value to the ML team.

Sure minor league inning count. But if hes a major league starter theres no way he can pitch only 3 innings per start and not decimate the bullpen. You can do that in the minors.

You shouldnt have him starting in the majors until he can go 5. If he goes 5 right away you have no innings left at the end of the season.

As far as Jones goes, hes been on a regular rotation for a few years. As well as throwing 127 last year so id imagine he has more budgeted innings to begin with.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The "issue" here is that he's only going to throw so many pitches this year and wasting any of them in AAA is just that, wasting them. I accept the argument that one wants the extra year of control, but that date has come and gone, and he's gaining absolutely nothing by blowing away a bunch of overmatched minor league hitters. If the idea is to "stretch him out," as DJ outlined, there's absolutely no reason he can't be throwing 3-4 innings here in a piggyback role. Oh, and there's also the fact this pitching staff is in some disarray with Gonzales hurt and the bullpen being a tire fire - if they are at all serious about competing for a playoff spot, the finite innings he will pitch in 2024 will be more useful here than in Indy. To each his own, I guess.

Again, he's going to be up in less than a month, they want to build him up so he's capable of throwing 80+ pitches in every outing when he gets to the MLB. Him pitching a few 3 inning starts in AAA to start the year isn't going to be a problem in any way.

 

[sovietsanta87]

We 100% need skenes in order to compete this year. At the same time, his involvement at the major league level would do little to change our record right now. We need hitters and another bullpen arm.

 

[Coastal Kev]

He'll be up at some point in May after he gets stretched out a bit more, I don't see the issue here.

He could be getting stretched out here and not wasting his arm in meaningless games.

 

[WickedWrister]

 

[sovietsanta87]

He doesn’t know. That guy is a puppet.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

People are pointing this out, but the weird thing about that Fan clip is that Shelton does not say that. He explicitly says that they are building him up.

The more I look at it, the more confident I am that he will be up in two weeks for the Rockies series. That's around when some decently in-the-know guys like Callis had been saying, and it tracks pretty well with ramping up the pitch count over 3 more AAA starts in between now and then.

They could still play some games, but the signaling is all pretty straightforward about the workload buildup. If the intention is to full-on keep him down until Super Two has cleared, then at this point the only way that becomes really feasible is if he is slated to go 5 innings in a start but actually runs into some problems and gives up some runs. More generally, if that was the original plan, then there would have been an easier way to go about it, starting with a much slower ramp up so that whatever this already-slow ramp up is didn't happen for another 3-4 weeks.

I don't think you have to hand it to the Pirates at all, but if he does come up in early May, then it's much better than I expected. That still incurs some risk that he could assert himself in the ROY race and undo the year of service that had been gained, which would mean that while the whole thing was always of course about that in part, it was also about this slow, quasi-extended ST in order to get his feet wet professionally and get him into the rotation without many bullets wasted.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Don't care about Skenes as long as the failure brothers Cruz and Davis keep sucking.

 

[WickedWrister]

Welp, that was crushed out of the stadium.

Edit: Priester throwing batting practice

 

[MrBrightside]

I just can’t with this anymore. Yes let’s run Priester out there while we add 2 pitches an outing to a guy who is probably a top 10 pitcher in baseball right now for each of the next 6 starts against AAA guys. Not like these games count.