OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: New season of plundering begins

The Grim Reaper

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Apr 18, 2017
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Went to the local minor team today, so I missed the game. Surprised to see the Pirates seemingly dominate today. Splitting the series with a team like the Phillies is very good.
 

BusinessGoose

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May 19, 2022
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Went to the local minor team today, so I missed the game. Surprised to see the Pirates seemingly dominate today. Splitting the series with a team like the Phillies is very good.
It wasn't looking good
Wheeler was striking everyone out

Just got a few key hits when needed, very close win despite the score

Worst part is, should have been 3-1 in the series, split works though
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Aug 7, 2003
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It was a huge win. I think there's some danger in overrating it, because 1-3 is bad but not disastrous, but it feels huge in terms of momentum going forward. After Bednar blowing the mini-sweep on Tuesday and then the way these games have unfolded, plus the Marco Gonzales news, it just feels like a very stabilizing win.

11-5 is basically as good as anyone could have possibly dreamed up the first 16 games. It's been an easier schedule to a decent extent, but those type of stretches are still by no means easy to actually pull off.

The split also takes more pressure off the Mets series. At some point, we will lose a 3-game series. IMO the expectation should still be to take this series, as the Mets are looking pretty mediocre on most nights, with an offense that isn't doing a ton and a middling bullpen that can be gotten into quickly.

Kinda hilarious that the whole division is winning and looking pretty solid (except maybe the Cardinals, which...) but there's no sense worrying about that now. The big red flag in this series was just how many times we struck out looking. That's not going to fly, even if I do think there's something to the (somewhat) overly patient approach against most teams.

I think we might need to turn Bart loose a little bit, even if I also think it's mostly a timing thing with Davis. The low key thing that would be pretty nice is if Hayes really is heating up. His ABs stood out to be and he hit some really solid balls in this series. It would be nice to see the power become a driver in the next little bit.
 

Empoleon8771

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Aug 25, 2015
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Priester has like a 1.30 FIP in AAA right now due to piling up a ton of strikeouts (13.2 K/9), so I don't think giving him a change in the rotation is a bad idea. Hopefully Gonzales isn't out super long term, but if he is, I think giving Priester a look before Skenes is ready (whether it be pitch count, service time or whatever else would make him "ready") makes sense.

Priester is obviously not going to be ahead of Skenes on the depth chart once Skenes is ready to be called up, but it would be useful to get a look at Priester for a few games to give them an idea of whether he's a starting option this year or not.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, seems like the off-day will let us skip the spot and make a decision later.

I am perfectly fine with giving Priester a look. I don't think there's any way it can be Roansy. Perhaps Ortiz gets a crack due to making the team and performing well in his role so far, but I kind of like not changing that and just seeing what Priester can do. Whoever gets it will be slated for an important start vs. the Brewers, unless we time it in the Red Sox series on Sunday to readjust the rotation.

Priester also doesn't need a 40-man spot, and it seems like Lauer and definitely German are not really ready.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Yeah, seems like the off-day will let us skip the spot and make a decision later.

I am perfectly fine with giving Priester a look. I don't think there's any way it can be Roansy. Perhaps Ortiz gets a crack due to making the team and performing well in his role so far, but I kind of like not changing that and just seeing what Priester can do. Whoever gets it will be slated for an important start vs. the Brewers, unless we time it in the Red Sox series on Sunday to readjust the rotation.

Priester also doesn't need a 40-man spot, and it seems like Lauer and definitely German are not really ready.

I have liked Ortiz in the bullpen so much that I honestly don't want to mess with him. I think his stuff makes him a prime setup/closer option going forward, so I don't want to jerk him around between the rotation and bullpen if they don't have to.

Having him as a starter option is obviously nice, but I'd rather them focus on developing him into a high leverage reliever with the stuff he has.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I agree -- I think it's basically a question of locker room precedent and pecking order. Hard to say from the outside, but if we had a conversation with Ortiz that we think he will be the best MLB player as a reliever, and that he will be moving into a leverage role as he performs, then assuming he was receptive to that, ideally we don't touch it.

On the other hand, if we had a conversation that he was basically helping the MLB team by getting outs, and could be the next guy to get an opportunity, things are different.

Obviously, we could also not have had a specific conversation and be weighing a decision now. I do think starter is more valuable, and there's still some temptation there with how good Ortiz actually did look in brief glimpses. His issue has been walks, but generally, I think it's best not to mess with his positive momentum now. There's always the possibility of rerouting him back to a kind of starter next year or something if you think he doesn't quite have the swing and miss for high leverage (it seems like he does).

It makes sense to get another look at Priester this season. His velo has been up from everything I have seen, which could be an x-factor in making him more effective. This is getting way ahead of myself, but even from the perspective of him still breaking into the league and potentially being a tradeable chip in the right situation. I don't think it would involve Priester for sure, but you gotta start wondering if the Marlins would want to sell high on Luzardo given how bad of a freefall they have had to start the year.
 

ImporterExporter

"You're a boring old man"
Jun 18, 2013
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Nick Gonzalez - looking like a bench player or outright bust

Henry Davis - Has shown absolutely nothing at the MLB level that makes me think he'll be a regular. Going to give him the rest of the year, but as a 1st overall, looks like a massive bust.

Termarr Johnson - Absolutely pathetic start to this year. Him not hitting in a friendly environment in Greensboro is not a good sign. He swings and misses way too much which is comical considering his "generational bat to ball skills".

Is this an indictment against Cherington and or/the developmental personnel in place? Or do these 3 players just not make the grade?

Missing out on a 7th, 1st, and 4th overall selection (back to back to back years) in round 1 is termination worthy.
 

WheresRamziAbid

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Or maybe your overacting to 15 games or less of a sample size.

Davis has hit at every level of the minors and has struggled in 46 abs.
Gonzalez has hit at every level of the minors and is hitting well now in AAA.
Johnson has hot at every level of the minors and has struggled in 31 abs.

End of the day they could all be massive busts but trying to make any analysis, let alone sweeping statements, based on this level of data is just silly. Especially when theyve all earned their way with good performance to the level they are currently struggling at. They didnt get free passes to move up because they were high picks.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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I was listening to a recent episode of Rates and Barrels and they mentioned that the strike zone is a lot lower in the minor leagues, which is a more extreme version of the way that it's tuned for offense already in MLB. They mentioned this as a way to speculate about why pitchers have been able to find the obvious hole for Davis with high fastballs.

This always happens with young players, but I thought it was especially useful because it would be something to exploit that he didn't have to wrestle with in the minors (plus, worse pitchers obviously).

They were also saying that the adjustment isn't only about being able to get to that pitch and do damage with it, but basically to be able to neutralize it so that it isn't an easy whiff. This was coming from Trevor May, who brings a lot of good insight from a pitcher's perspective about the mental game and how to attack. I haven't looked into the data at all, but it did seem to me that over the course of the Phillies series, Davis was starting to foul off those high fastballs more frequently, rather than just massively whiff on them every time.
 

ChaosAgent

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May 8, 2018
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Nick Gonzalez - looking like a bench player or outright bust

Henry Davis - Has shown absolutely nothing at the MLB level that makes me think he'll be a regular. Going to give him the rest of the year, but as a 1st overall, looks like a massive bust.

Termarr Johnson - Absolutely pathetic start to this year. Him not hitting in a friendly environment in Greensboro is not a good sign. He swings and misses way too much which is comical considering his "generational bat to ball skills".

Is this an indictment against Cherington and or/the developmental personnel in place? Or do these 3 players just not make the grade?

Missing out on a 7th, 1st, and 4th overall selection (back to back to back years) in round 1 is termination worthy.

Way too early to say they have missed on Davis or Johnson.
 
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NewAgeOutlaw

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It makes him more hittable but with the mass proliferation of UCL tears Keller might be the world's smartest man by not trying to hit 98 with every heater.

I assume if he threw every fastball as hard as he can his elbow would have exploded by now. You can't bring value to the club when you are spending a year rehabbing your arm.
 
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Empoleon8771

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Saying Johnson looks like a dud because he only has a .449 OPS in 9 games so far this year is like saying that Gonzales looks like a top 2B prospect because he has a .964 OPS in 14 games so far this year.

I'm skeptical with Gonzales and I'm starting to get worried about Davis, but it is insanely premature to write off any of their 1st rounders at this point. With Davis and Gonzales, both of those guys are one small tweak away from absolutely breaking out as hitters. It's a legitimate question for whether those guys can do that, but the tools are absolutely there.
 
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Fogel

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Johnson had 132 plate appearances at A+ last year and an OPS of .842.
Johnson has 38 plate appearances at A+ this year with an OPS of .449.

Cold streak to start the year or is that impossible?

I mean Julio Rodriguez has an OPS of .441 right now so I guess he is washed up at 23 after 2 seasons of 4+ WAR.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Marlins optioning Max Meyer is embarrassing.

Cherington needs to be on the phone hounding them about Luzardo. Since he's 26 and still has two full years of control remaining, I think he will have some serious value in any trade, but the Marlins season has gone so sideways that I would imagine he is going to be on the block by the deadline.

I doubt he's attainable without one of Chandler or Johnson as the headliner, which I would be skittish to do, but if we were able to do a quantity over quality swap (for once in the other direction), it would be a dream. Maybe something like both Peguero and Bae, as well as multiple pitchers -- if you had to include one of Harrington, Solometo, or Chandler, that just might be the cost of doing business, but my feeling on Chandler is that he's going to fully break out and should probably be closer to untouchable. His fastball is outrageous and he is still only fully coming into himself as a pitcher.

Anyways, not worth dwelling on hypotheticals very much, and I would imagine Gonzales and Peguero still don't hold huge value despite good starts. Those were names we heard in the mix for Cabrera, with rumors of a sticking point being over Shim or Jebb, I forget the exact arrangement. But maybe there is some framework there and the Pirates could add the right frontliner to a deal. It obviously goes without saying, but adding Luzardo to Keller along with Jones and soon Skenes would be quite nasty, with Perez rounding things out. I don't think this is totally out of left field, either. It's the exact kind of trade that a rebuilding team with momentum and a decently deep farm system should be able to pull off.
 
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BusinessGoose

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Lol
Houser threw three pitches in the strikezone, two questionable outside, got a K and two weak groundouts

Lol... Can't make it and easier for the Mets
 

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