OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: More of the same

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JimmyTwoTimes

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Yeah, I had in my head that maybe it is some kind of meta-commentary that we are going to keep running the table on teams in order to finish with the half decent, slightly above .500 record that was always this teams series, after basically being dead in the water to make these games meaningless, but blowing a winnable game because a good pitcher just magically turns bad - and then within that, actually coming back but still losing because the bad pitcher you put in to mop up for the good pitcher turned bad is just actually bad - is probably a better season precis.

Failed under pressure all season long. As soon as they are " out of the race" they play good again. As soon as theres some hope..this happens.

Just end this season..this loss wasnt even on Hurdle but still need to replace him. Need a manager to get these guys performing under pressure. Alot of them are young...an offseason to reset and forget about this season. Hopefully start next year strong and dont look back.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Good lord, I turned this one off when it started going off the rails, but it looks like Nick Burdi's debut did not go well, and he now has a 108 ERA to show for it!
 

TNT87

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He hasn't been nearly the same since his injury. Had a terrific July then, like the tweet said, fell off a cliff.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Yeah, and I think the clear implication there is that the Meadows part of the Archer trade may be the most devastating. Maybe Luplow will surprise some, but I'm not yet sure about him as more than a bench or depth guy. There are some potential free agents we could also bring on board, since even with a healthy Dickerson, I think he's best when getting some fairly regular rest, just above that of a platoon situation. Certainly Frazier could step into that gap, and if for example Kramer really excels, could even shift more broadly into a utility/LF role going forward, but I think when you also consider that Polanco having an unknown shoulder injury that needed surgery, there is cause for concern about what seemed to be one of the only brighter spots on an offense that is most definitely handicapping the whole team.

What I think needs to be done above all this winter is for Huntington to be decisive. We have some viable internal options who are getting a test run this month, and that's great. Maybe somebody will look very good and then fade next year, and that's hard to put too much blame on. But we need to figure out which internal horse(s) to bet on, and then move decisively to try and get help from outside the organization. Playing musical chairs with a bunch of possible a little bit better than mediocre guys is a recipe for guaranteed below average offense again.

That said, I am still fairly optimistic regarding the pitching situation. Big questions about Archer remain, even separate from assessing the trade and so forth, but I think Taillon is basically an ace at this point, and Musgrove is maybe not the most ideal #2, but if you are getting a lot of the solid, 7 IP starts from him + Ks, he'll have room to improve even slightly, and if you get some more consistency and a better floor out of Archer, it's a quite solid first three, backed up by some stable backend options and an outstanding bullpen.

I like the idea of resting certain of the bullpen arms and playing it safe, and think that things like Santana having a little bit of a blow up are basically meaningless. The bullpen arms we should try and maximize the use of are Brault and Burdi. It'd be nice to have Brault be the LHP reliever we need there, so that in the offseason, we can pretty much solely focus on the offense, and while Burdi obviously had a bad review, the guy was throwing 98 and has a good offspeed pitch. Given the depth, we should try to see more of that now, and stick with him next season -- that's closer apprentice stuff, in the way that we've pretty much always had close apprentices in waiting since Hanrahan.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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Pablo Reyes is one of the easiest to root for players I've seen in a long time. The Polanco news is definitely very bad, but I'd like to see what he can do as a 4th OF/utility player type.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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It feels almost inevitable that this team is going to do something maddening like win out and finish 2.5 games from the second WC. There are obviously a multitude of factors for why we are so mediocre, but a whole lot would probably be different if we had fared better in the season series vs the Cards.
 
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bathroomSTAAL

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Was at the game last night, still a fun time. Reyes made an amazing catch right in front of us.

Not feeling super great about the direction of the team/organization of course but would still be nice to lock up a winning season.
 

DJ Spinoza

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Glanced at the schedule for the hell of it, and even in the most improbable of scenarios, there's no way we can cut it close. I guess things could get moderately interesting if we sweep the Brewers and the Cardinals really falter against the Giants this weekend, but we'd need another week, and even then it would be totally crazy to make up so much ground.

Pretty much the only way to look at it is that the Cardinals are the team that will edge us out. To put the brute numbers on it, we have 11 games left, so we can get to 88 wins. The Cards have 9 left, 3 vs the Giants, 3 vs the Brewers, and 3 vs the Cubs. So if they lost all three series, and we won out, we'd finish above them. Colorado is the other team we'd be chasing (bracketing the fact that we're tied with Washington and Arizona is two games in front of us), and they are trending in the wrong direction with a reasonably tough schedule left.

Seriously, even just a three game swing going differently against the Cardinals in the season matchup would have changed the equation quite significantly. We'd still be in need of a lot of wins and a lot of luck. Somehow the scenario we are currently in now--weirdly still in the running if a ton of shit goes our way--seems like a more fitting end to the season. In any case, I'm happy to see some good baseball in recent weeks, continued good pitching and also things like Frazier looking very good defensively at 2B.

I'm not sure how much it has set in that losing Polanco is a huge blow, but hopefully he can just be out for the shorter end of that time. Shoulder injuries, though... even if he comes back in early June, it's possible that he's out of sorts and/or injured mildly off and on all season, and it's not like those two things are things he's never experienced before independent of a major injury.

Just hoping for a strong finish to the year. Let's continue being a thorn in the Brewers ass this weekend and beat up on the Cubs just because f*** the Cubs. 85 wins would be a pretty nice total.

I'm fully preparing myself for us to sweep the Cubs, creating just the barest inkling of hope cracking through the window, only to just get brutally smacked in the teeth by the Cubs. But, it's something of an advantage this time of the year to be the massive underdog: Brewers, Cards, Rockies all have massive pressure on them right now, but I think even in the most optimistic of scenarios, we need another 2-3 games to have won. In other words, we'd need to be able to do something like 11-0 or 10-1 and finish with 91 wins or so. Honestly right now I wouldn't even be terribly shocked if we managed to keep winning behind this pitching, Pablo Reyes solidifying his status as a cult hero and fan favorite, but still fall too short of one of the too many teams we have to chase.
 
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DanielPlainview

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You can't lose 5 of 7 to the Reds and Padres. I don't care what time of year it is, it can't happen.

And I'm not going to get excited over some September wins/ stats boosting. Most teams are in cruise control to the post-season, playing around with their rosters and generally preparing for 2019. It's basically ST on steroids.
 
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DJ Spinoza

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No disagreement from me on the former point. You can pretty much pick up several different stretches from this team and find abysmal losses. We are an astoundingly average team, and it's a somewhat separate argument, but the Archer trade continues to look extremely bad. You might even be able to go as far as saying we'd be closer to the playoffs if we hadn't made the trade, but that assumes Glasnow being put into a starting role etc.

Most concretely, I'd say that the road Giants series with Holmes' loss is probably a big factor in our finding ourselves always just too far behind the 8-ball. You can definitely date it earlier, but if we flip that game and win the series there, then actually handle business against the Twins and sort out at least another loss or two in the games vs. NL playoff contenders, then we are much more likely to be playing relevant baseball right now (although, the pessimist in me has to add the caveat that if what I say would have happened, we probably would have managed to bungle some games against the Reds or Marlins or something to mess it up). In other words, just look at the August games from the Giants series forward: there are 20, and we went 7-13 over that time. Not killer, but when you are already a .500 team, it's definitely a killer. Grab just some more relatively easy wins for 11-9 or 12-8, and right now we have 81 or 82 wins and are right on the heels of the WC race.

I don't think September wins are anything to firmly bank on for next year, but I also don't think that Frazier's general play, or the continued performance from the pitching staff, is anything to just dismiss.
 

DanielPlainview

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It's encouraging, but the best one can say is "I hope it carries over in 2019", the same way people hope a ST star "carries it over to the regular season". Time will tell, but to beat the dead horse, I just don't see any meaningful improvement with Hurdle managing.
 

DJ Spinoza

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I agree generally, but think the biggest problem will be Huntington/the offense. I'm bullish on Frazier, and maybe cautiously optimistic that Bell can be solid, but still not that much above replacement level. C is always a wildcard with health, and Polanco out is a devastating blow. 3B, SS, 1-2 OF are big question marks. I'd just as soon sacrifice some offense and get Iglesias for SS -- Newman looks overmatched defensively and might be a kinda ok slap hitter. Looks like a backup utility player to me.

Best option I can still see is signing Eduardo Escobar, and maybe hoping that Reyes can emerge as something of a super utility, playing occasionally in various spots and using his speed along with Marte's to play some more small ball. The game seems to be moving dramatically away from that direction, but we have to be creative to generate offense in some way I think.

I have a whole lot of confidence in the pitching, but it will only carry us so far. Even in these recent (pretty much) meaningless wins, the offense has been exceptionally weak.
 

JimmyTwoTimes

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No disagreement from me on the former point. You can pretty much pick up several different stretches from this team and find abysmal losses. We are an astoundingly average team, and it's a somewhat separate argument, but the Archer trade continues to look extremely bad. You might even be able to go as far as saying we'd be closer to the playoffs if we hadn't made the trade, but that assumes Glasnow being put into a starting role etc.

Most concretely, I'd say that the road Giants series with Holmes' loss is probably a big factor in our finding ourselves always just too far behind the 8-ball. You can definitely date it earlier, but if we flip that game and win the series there, then actually handle business against the Twins and sort out at least another loss or two in the games vs. NL playoff contenders, then we are much more likely to be playing relevant baseball right now (although, the pessimist in me has to add the caveat that if what I say would have happened, we probably would have managed to bungle some games against the Reds or Marlins or something to mess it up). In other words, just look at the August games from the Giants series forward: there are 20, and we went 7-13 over that time. Not killer, but when you are already a .500 team, it's definitely a killer. Grab just some more relatively easy wins for 11-9 or 12-8, and right now we have 81 or 82 wins and are right on the heels of the WC race.

I don't think September wins are anything to firmly bank on for next year, but I also don't think that Frazier's general play, or the continued performance from the pitching staff, is anything to just dismiss.

Thats what did us in...August. Yeah we had the bad stretch in May/June but July made up for it. And everytime we got to 4 games above .500 we suffered a bad loss and dropped a few more. Usually moves from Hurdle causing it. Both Holmes losses. Not playing Frazier for half of August when he was our hottest hitter(and basically only one) leading to getting shutout or losing 2-1 .

And that brutal loss to the Cards where we had a 4 run lead but Santana blew it.

Whenever the pressure was on this year, they came up short. So who knows if they even go on this streak recently if they knew their season wasnt over.
 

ImporterExporter

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These types of seasons are the absolute worst thing that can happen to a team like Pitt. Winning record means nobody is going to get fired, but you're not in the postseason and your draft pick won't net you a premium talent. Status quo achieved!

Honestly, the horse has been beaten, buried, dug up, beaten again and buried, but Nutting owning the team will most likely keep us from ever getting to where we could go.
 
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