OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Good Vibes Only

[NewAgeOutlaw]

The outfield in general is a mess. It would be a big help if Polanco can turn last night's game into a hot streak.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

On the subject of early season sample sizes, by the way, Polanco's wRC+ is now 101 after a game where he went 2-2 with two walks. From the looks of it (I let my sub lapse because I cannot stand him), Biertempfel has an article up about him today, during which he didn't even get his line from last night correct (I saw a screenshot).

IMO it's too early to fully declare him back, but the signs are there and encouraging. The K% still needs to come down, simply because you have to imagine the BB% will come down a little bit, but even if he just gets it down a couple of ticks while not losing more than two or three on the BB% (right now it's 30.8 K% ad 20.5 BB%), that will play with the power.

I have a feeling that the power is about to heat up. He's shown patience that I don't think I've seen out of him before, and it's impressive since the results have been slow to come. There have been at least half a dozen ABs in the last handful of games where the old Polanco would have started pressing and offered at bad pitches, getting himself out of his swing, etc. This Polanco is not even really being fooled by strong pitchers in good pitcher's counts. I am optimistic. The only downside is that I think his arm is still going to leave a lot to be desired. Having the NL DH again I think would be nice in terms of more easily integrating Evans into the lineup going forward.


A last thought is that I guess the Alford/Fowler worry might be a little bit of a moot point given that the temporary experiment seems like it's going to need to be Reynolds to CF and Evans in LF. Once Hayes is back, I think you have to bat Moran-Evans-Polanco as the 4-5-6 guys. At that point Alford/Fowler is basically a defensive replacement and occasional starter, so rather than Goodwin or Oliva, I think it could open up the opportunity for Frazier to come back as an occasional 1B start and pinch hitter. That's how I'd draw it up, and with the tools + years of control, I'd just keep Alford around for that defensive replacement job and see if maybe he'll turn it around a little bit. I think he's a better defender than Fowler anyways.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

No bueno. Newman does not deserve to play, let alone bat second. This is a gift to a pitcher in Paddack who has struggled early on.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Newman’s decent game a couple nights ago must have bought him some extra slack

 

[ChaosAgent]

We should claim Nick Williams from the Chisox. Outfield is still a mess.

 

[ChaosAgent]

@DJ Spinoza to the rest of the thread about Polanco

 

[cookthebooks]

if there isnt a run scored in the first inning is it even a pirates game

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I wonder if keller would be better off going to a cutter. Guys with flat 4 seamers have been having success recently making that switch. Burnes would be the best case

 

[cookthebooks]

not sure if a cutter solves grooving 90mph center center

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

not sure if a cutter solves grooving 90mph center center

if it cuts its not center center.

 

[wheelz87]

Wonderful start to this one..

 

[MrBrightside]

For whatever positives you can take from the first 2 weeks, Keller's regression/lack of progress is extremely concerning. They desperately need him and Hayes to be stars.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Yeah, firmly back on the Keller "give up gang."

 

[ChaosAgent]

For whatever positives you can take from the first 2 weeks, Keller's regression/lack of progress is extremely concerning. They desperately need him and Hayes to be stars.

I think there's a path forward without Keller. He hasn't looked good for 3 years now.

Hayes not being a 5+ WAR player would be a killer though.

 

[DanielPlainview]

They're hitting the off-speed stuff not the fastball

 

[ChaosAgent]

Keller also takes an awfully short stride.

I wonder if that's part of his issue. A lot of guys are releasing the baseball at like 53 feet from home plate. What if Mitch is at 55 or 56? I wonder if that's part of why he's so dang hittable.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

They're hitting the off-speed stuff not the fastball

If you have a fastball that gets outs and or swings and misses. You don't need off-speed stuff other than burying a curve low or a changeup to a lefty. If he finds a pitch thats actually good.

Again i will use Burnes as an extreme example.

A few years ago he was One of the worst pitchers in baseball. Throwing 88% fastballs and sliders. Now hes 50% cutter and no other pitch tops 15%. Sprinkled in in specific situation for best effectivness

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I think the issue with Keller remains command and sequencing. I don't know if he needs to ditch the fastball, but I think maybe implementing more of a cutter than a slider would help things play better. I don't get why he doesn't use his curve more, but maybe he doesn't have good feel for it right now.

In that inning, he served one up for Machado, and then hung a curve, then got unlucky with the dude just getting to the high pitch. He can't throw the offspeed stuff over the heart of the plate in the wrong count. We'll see how he responds – not flaming out is part of the learning process too, and right now I think any of us would be hard pressed to think he can even navigate through the 4th or 5th and keep it where it is.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'd tweak the release point to add any deception to what he's doing.

He has none.

 

[DanielPlainview]

His command of the off-speed is just dreadful. Setting them up on a tee when the hitter is looking to swing at anything near the zone is just bad pitching

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

His command of the off-speed is just dreadful. Setting them up on a tee when the hitter is looking to swing at anything near the zone is just bad pitching

Yeah his command is garbage overall

 

[cookthebooks]

mlb.tv free game of the day today and we are getting what we paid for

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's time to give up on him.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I truly don't get the reactive mentality or the fantasyland stuff from places like Rum Bunter who just parrot various decontextualized stats and talking points as if they mean something (Keller's fastball is flat! Spin! Blah blah...).

Keller is barely 25 and has reliever-level command right now. Starting pitching prospects are for the most part not linear, so I just don't understand the mentality that expects Keller to make adjustments, find consistency, and then be permanently good. That's just not how it works in almost any case league wide. Look at Corbin Burnes as a great example.

I wonder if in addition to the offspeed command today, his release point might be erratic again. That was a key thing in the past game.

 

[cookthebooks]

colin moran getting deserved kudos for his approach at the plate. boy is it sounding good off his bat rn