OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Draft Day!

[ChaosAgent]

We need so much pitching it's a joke.

Right-handed pitchers who don't suck against lefties. Wasn't Marin supposed to help with this or nah?

 

[Gallatin]

We need so much pitching it's a joke.

Right-handed pitchers who don't suck against lefties. Wasn't Marin supposed to help with this or nah?

Hate to beak it to you Doc - but the pitching mostly seems 2-3 years out...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Hate to beak it to you Doc - but the pitching mostly seems 2-3 years out...

I don't even think there's enough of that.

We're gonna have to go and buy pitching like crazy. Mid-tier FAs, attempted reclamations, and blockbuster trades for controllable starters (and pray it turns out better than Archer did). As far as interesting dudes in our system playing full season ball, like 70% of them are on the offensive side of the ball. We will have to field a pre-Arb and Arb lineup and buy a lotta pitching.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

We need so much pitching it's a joke.

Right-handed pitchers who don't suck against lefties. Wasn't Marin supposed to help with this or nah?

Could always revisit the Reynolds to Miami this winter

 

[ChaosAgent]

Could always revisit the Reynolds to Miami this winter

We can keep Reynolds. We'll run a $100M payroll once we're good (like we did in '13-'15 plus a little inflation) and it's not a big deal if Reynolds is making $15-$18M of that since so many other guys will be pre-arb. The people we'll trade are the non-Davis players we drafted, guys currently in A-ball and whatever international signings are popping (Shalin-don't-call-me-Greg-Polanco for example).

Looking at the team and minors I don't see a pathway to building a competitive pitching staff internally...well, ever, but certainly not by 2023-2024. Whereas the Altoona, Indy and big-league hitters plus Davis could be formidable.

I realize my mental clock is ahead of many of the rest of yours but I'm not interested in waiting on the pitching to match the hitting if the hitting is there. If we have to spend 30-40% of our payroll and 6-7 of our (future) top-20 prospects to find the right half dozen external pitchers in '23-'24 I wanna do it.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

They free agent market is trash for starting pitchers next year. Even they wanted to find their version of Happ Liarino and Burnet it’s going to be through trade. I fully expect next year they draft a ton of pitchers it’s full of left handed pitchers

 

[Gallatin]

We can keep Reynolds. We'll run a $100M payroll once we're good (like we did in '13-'15 plus a little inflation) and it's not a big deal if Reynolds is making $15-$18M of that since so many other guys will be pre-arb. The people we'll trade are the non-Davis players we drafted, guys currently in A-ball and whatever international signings are popping (Shalin-don't-call-me-Greg-Polanco for example).

Looking at the team and minors I don't see a pathway to building a competitive pitching staff internally...well, ever, but certainly not by 2023-2024. Whereas the Altoona, Indy and big-league hitters plus Davis could be formidable.

I realize my mental clock is ahead of many of the rest of yours but I'm not interested in waiting on the pitching to match the hitting if the hitting is there. If we have to spend 30-40% of our payroll and 6-7 of our (future) top-20 prospects to find the right half dozen external pitchers in '23-'24 I wanna do it.

And you were SURE Hays was a Superstar. Now you're worried he might not even be a good player.

I bet our MiLB pitching looks quite intriguing. Next year.

I get it - you're impatient on the rebuild. I think you should slow down a little though - there's plenty of time down the road for certitude. Now and the next couple years is about possibility, at least, if you want to enjoy the process.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And you were SURE Hays was a Superstar. Now you're worried he might not even be a good player.

I bet our MiLB pitching looks quite intriguing. Next year.

I get it - you're impatient on the rebuild. I think you should slow down a little though - there's plenty of time down the road for certitude. Now and the next couple years is about possibility, at least, if you want to enjoy the process.

I wasn't sure Hayes was a superstar.

Edit: we shall see on the MILB pitching. We need more of it. Marcano is fine but if there was a time we should have insisted on pitching it was the Frazier deal.

Finally, respectfully, you should examine the last window. After they bottomed out in 2010 they got much better and actually contended 2 years later before collapsing down the stretch.

 

[Gallatin]

I wasn't sure Hayes was a superstar.

Edit: we shall see on the MILB pitching. We need more of it. Marcano is fine but if there was a time we should have insisted on pitching it was the Frazier deal.

Finally, respectfully, you should examine the last window. After they bottomed out in 2010 they got much better and actually contended 2 years later before collapsing down the stretch.

I missed those years. Didn't watch an inning from the Moskos pick till 2013....

 

[ChaosAgent]

I missed those years. Didn't watch an inning from the Moskos pick till 2013....

You and I will just politely disagree on both my Bullishness on the 2022 and 2023 hitter crops, and the necessity of surrounding them with competent pitching rather than waiting on the Priester (if he hits it will be long developing), Mlod (now injured), Burrows (now injured), Thomas (ticketed for relief but potential impact reliever) cohort. If you can construct a contending lineup for $25M with mostly pre-arb dudes you have to take advantage and get pitching externally. I have no philosophical need to build the whole thing internally.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Gonzo with an OK day...

3-3 w/2 walks, 1 double, 2 home runs including this granny

 

[ImporterExporter]

Chavis' first 5 games w/Indy:

9-20
4 doubles
2 home runs
6 runs/rbi
1.492 OPS

 

[MrBrightside]

So running the risk of being excoriated for being overly negative, one of the major bright spots on this train wreck of a season was the belief that we have a future star in Hayes. There's no question he's an elite defender, but man I'm not sure the bat is going to be there to be a star.

In 1755 minor league at-bats, Hayes posted a line of .279/.353/.401 (.754 OPS), and if you take out his 2018 season in Altoona, his career minor league OPS was .732. In 216 at-bats in 2021, he is at .254/.322/.394 (.716 OPS), which is pretty consistent with what his minor league numbers would project. The entire argument for him being an elite player rather than being Joe Randa is locked up in the 85 at-bats he posted in 2020 where he hit like an absolute star.

Just an observation...but maybe people should turn their attention to Reynolds as the future centerpiece to try to lock up longterm instead of Hayes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Hayes hand wringing is nonsensical in my eyes. Even if Hayes ends up a .750 OPS guy going forward, that's still like a 5.0 WAR player per full season. He'll consistently be putting up between 2 and 3 WAR based on his defense alone. At worst, he'll be giving comparable results to what Marte was for the Pirates. I'm not worried about a ~100 OPS+ guy with gold glove caliber defense that gives between 4 and 5 WAR per 162 games, I'm just not.

 

[ChaosAgent]

So running the risk of being excoriated for being overly negative, one of the major bright spots on this train wreck of a season was the belief that we have a future star in Hayes. There's no question he's an elite defender, but man I'm not sure the bat is going to be there to be a star.

In 1755 minor league at-bats, Hayes posted a line of .279/.353/.401 (.754 OPS), and if you take out his 2018 season in Altoona, his career minor league OPS was .732. In 216 at-bats in 2021, he is at .254/.322/.394 (.716 OPS), which is pretty consistent with what his minor league numbers would project. The entire argument for him being an elite player rather than being Joe Randa is locked up in the 85 at-bats he posted in 2020 where he hit like an absolute star.

Just an observation...but maybe people should turn their attention to Reynolds as the future centerpiece to try to lock up longterm instead of Hayes.

No question this season has been a disappointment at the major league level. Even beyond

Hayes' offensive regression has been the #1 issue
The confirmation that Keller is a bust
The fact that Brubaker keeps taking steps forward but can't avoid the gopherball/big inning
That virtually none of the "change of scenery" vets has worked out really, aside from Difo and Alford showing late signs of life.

I agree that Hayes' stock has fallen significantly and we have been discussing that.
At this point if I'm extending Hayes I'm doing it on the cheap; with something like the extension that we handed to Marte in 2014.

I have no issue offering Reynolds something like 6/$90M with a team option for $25M in year 7 and a player option for $25M in year 8.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The Hayes hand wringing is nonsensical in my eyes. Even if Hayes ends up a .750 OPS guy going forward, that's still like a 5.0 WAR player per full season. He'll consistently be putting up between 2 and 3 WAR based on his defense alone. At worst, he'll be giving comparable results to what Marte was for the Pirates. I'm not worried about a ~100 OPS+ guy with gold glove caliber defense that gives between 4 and 5 WAR per 162 games, I'm just not.

It's all relative to expectations.

If you believe that's Marte 2.0 from an effectiveness standpoint...I'd sign up for that right now. But the right-tail outcome where he's in the stratosphere of Acuna, Young Cutch, Tatis, Trea Turner, etc. is looking pretty dim right now.

If Marte is your franchise guy you don't have a franchise guy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's all relative to expectations.

If you believe that's Marte 2.0 from an effectiveness standpoint...I'd sign up for that right now. But the right-tail outcome where he's in the stratosphere of Acuna, Young Cutch, Tatis, Trea Turner, etc. is looking pretty dim right now.

If Marte is your franchise guy you don't have a franchise guy.

I never had the expectation that Hayes would reach Tatis, Acuna or McCutchen upside

Even with his hot start in the MLB last year, his minor league numbers just didn't suggest he would be as good as those guys. He was rated at highest of 60 FV as a prospect, and that was after his super hot MLB showing last year. Tatis was 70 FV right before turning pro I believe.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

It's all relative to expectations.

If you believe that's Marte 2.0 from an effectiveness standpoint...I'd sign up for that right now. But the right-tail outcome where he's in the stratosphere of Acuna, Young Cutch, Tatis, Trea Turner, etc. is looking pretty dim right now.

If Marte is your franchise guy you don't have a franchise guy.

The problem is that anyone expected Hayes to be a franchise guy.

Hes a good player. And thats good enough.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Reynolds is a stud. That much we can be sure of now that he's had his 2nd big year (after the rookie campaign in 2019) while playing legit gold glove defense himself in CF. Despite our team blowing ass he's consistently played AS caliber baseball all year.

He's the guy I'd be offering an extension to this off season. I can't imagine Nutting opening up for TWO players long term but locking up Reynolds seems more pertinent given his age and output.

I'm not overly worried on Hayes as he had a pretty significant wrist injury. That is not something to gloss over when looking at negatively impacting the ability to hit a baseball. For all we know, he's still not 100%/never was

I don't think a guy who has shown what he did last year and early on this season is suddenly a .650 OPS player. He's not 1.000 guy certainly, but as Empo said above, even a modest 750-800 player is worth 4-5 wins over the course of a year. That's not a franchise level player but still very valuable for a contender.

Let's give him the next 7 weeks (and then a healthy offseason/next spring) and see what he does. No need to rush to judgement on a guy who probably hasn't been healthy all year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I never had the expectation that Hayes would reach Tatis, Acuna or McCutchen upside

Even with his hot start in the MLB last year, his minor league numbers just didn't suggest he would be as good as those guys. He was rated at highest of 60 FV as a prospect, and that was after his super hot MLB showing last year. Tatis was 70 FV right before turning pro I believe.

The problem is that anyone expected Hayes to be a franchise guy.

Hes a good player. And thats good enough.

This is a fair take.

From a position player standpoint I think we'll have a great lineup-by-committee by '23. No show-stoppers but:
Hayes
Reynolds
Castro who I'm very bullish on
Cruz or one of the other guys at Altoona (Bae, Martin or Matty Frazier particularly) becomes a star
Davis and/or Nick Gonzales emerges

Constitutes a deep lineup of quality position players.

Hayes wouldn't be the star, but he'd be one of the main cogs - like Marte was.

 

[Empoleon8771]

My general stance on the state of this team is that they don't have a single guy with the upside of Tatis, Acuna or anyone like that, but they are also have a ton of guys with good potential upside that can end up Marte caliber players. Sure, you may not be the LA Dodgers with that, but your team is still going to be a damn good team if you have 5-6 guys on par with Marte on it. I think the Pirates can get that between Reynolds, Hayes and their prospect pool.

Look at what the Rays have been able to do despite not having a guy truly on par with Tatis or Acuna. They're sure as hell about to get one of those guys with Franco, but they've had a ton of success in the last few years by building a complete team with a bunch of Marte caliber players.

 

[ChaosAgent]

My general stance on the state of this team is that they don't have a single guy with the upside of Tatis, Acuna or anyone like that, but they are also have a ton of guys with good potential upside that can end up Marte caliber players. Sure, you may not be the LA Dodgers with that, but your team is still going to be a damn good team if you have 5-6 guys on par with Marte on it. I think the Pirates can get that between Reynolds, Hayes and their prospect pool.

Look at what the Rays have been able to do despite not having a guy truly on par with Tatis or Acuna. They're sure as hell about to get one of those guys with Franco, but they've had a ton of success in the last few years by building a complete team with a bunch of Marte caliber players.

But the pitching needs to catch up.

I'm a broken record here but I see a pretty likely pathway to getting to where we need to get to on the hitting side. On the pitching side, it's going to take eons if we do it internally. Especially with the results in Greensboro - Mlod and Burrows hurt, Priester looking like not-a-fast-riser.

 

[Gallatin]

Reynolds is a stud. That much we can be sure of now that he's had his 2nd big year (after the rookie campaign in 2019) while playing legit gold glove defense himself in CF. Despite our team blowing ass he's consistently played AS caliber baseball all year.

He's the guy I'd be offering an extension to this off season. I can't imagine Nutting opening up for TWO players long term but locking up Reynolds seems more pertinent given his age and output.

I'm not overly worried on Hayes as he had a pretty significant wrist injury. That is not something to gloss over when looking at negatively impacting the ability to hit a baseball. For all we know, he's still not 100%/never was

I don't think a guy who has shown what he did last year and early on this season is suddenly a .650 OPS player. He's not 1.000 guy certainly, but as Empo said above, even a modest 750-800 player is worth 4-5 wins over the course of a year. That's not a franchise level player but still very valuable for a contender.

Let's give him the next 7 weeks (and then a healthy offseason/next spring) and see what he does. No need to rush to judgement on a guy who probably hasn't been healthy all year.

Personally - I'm not setting expectations for Hays until early next summer. Then we should know how much the wrist affected him this summer.

 

[MrBrightside]

The Hayes hand wringing is nonsensical in my eyes. Even if Hayes ends up a .750 OPS guy going forward, that's still like a 5.0 WAR player per full season. He'll consistently be putting up between 2 and 3 WAR based on his defense alone. At worst, he'll be giving comparable results to what Marte was for the Pirates. I'm not worried about a ~100 OPS+ guy with gold glove caliber defense that gives between 4 and 5 WAR per 162 games, I'm just not.

First of all, stating that Reynolds should be the centerpiece of efforts to sign someone long terms instead of Hayes isn't "hand wringing" and your propensity for hyperbole remains bizarre. One can discuss a player without being a fanboy on one side or a hater on the other.

He'd have to be Brooks Robinson to post a 5.0 WAR with his current level of offense. Here's a complete list of all ML 3B who are on pace for a 5.0 WAR in 2021:

Rafael Devers




That's it. Machado or Ramirez could get there if they close well, but the idea that a guy with a .750 OPS playing a position with so few chances is going to post a 5.0 WAR is pretty optimistic.

Again, NOT HAND WRINGING. Not saying they should cut him. Just saying that the expectations for him appear to have been a good bit overblown.

 

[ChaosAgent]

First of all, stating that Reynolds should be the centerpiece of efforts to sign someone long terms instead of Hayes isn't "hand wringing" and your propensity for hyperbole remains bizarre. One can discuss a player without being a fanboy on one side or a hater on the other.

He'd have to be Brooks Robinson to post a 5.0 WAR with his current level of offense. Here's a complete list of all ML 3B who are on pace for a 5.0 WAR in 2021:

Rafael Devers




That's it. Machado or Ramirez could get there if they close well, but the idea that a guy with a .750 OPS playing a position with so few chances is going to post a 5.0 WAR is pretty optimistic.

Again, NOT HAND WRINGING. Not saying they should cut him. Just saying that the expectations for him appear to have been a good bit overblown.

If Hayes is a .750 OPS guy at 3b with his defense that is closer to 3-3.5 WAR. He'd have to be at about .800 (Marte range) for 4.5 WAR