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OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Congrats to the Houston Cheaters on their win

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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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Dansby Swanson would be another example. He had a career minor league OPS of .799, but he also didn't really do that well in AA or AAA (.745 OPS in AA, .698 OPS in AAA). Up through his age 25 season in the majors, he had an OPS of .703 and was primarily known as a defensive SS. In the last 3 years, he has an OPS of .784. His slugging% went from a .385 from 2016-2019 to a .455 from 2020-2022.

I don't think it is that rare for players to develop more power in their late 20s in the majors after they've settled into regulars.

MrBrightside said:
Ok. Now do the 47848 guys who didn’t completely change their approach and results 8 years into their professional career.

Peguero starting at SS. So much for the narrative he was recalled yesterday because he was physically closer to Pittsburgh than Cruz was.
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You said you would bet there aren't 5 examples in the history of the majors who did that. I've provided 2 players who had the same caliber of jump in their mid to late 20s that you're saying is impossible for Hayes to have, and that's just from looking quickly from stats this year.
 
Empoleon8771

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Oh, here's a fantastic example of a guy developing some power later in the majors: Jose Ramirez. In his first 3 years in the majors, he had a .346 slugging% and a .644 OPS from 2013-2016. In the minors, he had a .411 slugging% and a .766 OPS. Since 2016, Ramirez has a slugging% of .539 and has an OPS of .905.
 
MrBrightside

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You do realize that citing to Swanson and Escobar doesn't refute the point, don't you? Neither of those guys are really impact players, which was the original point all along. As I've said repeatedly, Hayes has value. He's a good player. He's just insanely overrated by some fans because of what he did for 24 games in 2020.

Empoleon8771 said:
Dansby Swanson would be another example. He had a career minor league OPS of .799, but he also didn't really do that well in AA or AAA (.745 OPS in AA, .698 OPS in AAA). Up through his age 25 season in the majors, he had an OPS of .703 and was primarily known as a defensive SS. In the last 3 years, he has an OPS of .784. His slugging% went from a .385 from 2016-2019 to a .455 from 2020-2022.

I don't think it is that rare for players to develop more power in their late 20s in the majors after they've settled into regulars.



You said you would bet there aren't 5 examples in the history of the majors who did that. I've provided 2 players who had the same caliber of jump in their mid to late 20s that you're saying is impossible for Hayes to have, and that's just from looking quickly from stats this year.
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Please show me where I said it is "impossible." Go ahead. I'll wait.

What I said was that massive jumps like what you're essentially assuming will occur with Hayes are very much the exception and not the rule. Citing to 2 or 3 guys who made them while ignoring the fact that the majors and minors are filled with hundreds of guys who didn't doesn't change that fact at all...in fact, it reinforces it.
 
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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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MrBrightside said:
You do realize that citing to Swanson and Escobar doesn't refute the point, don't you? Neither of those guys are really impact players, which was the original point all along. As I've said repeatedly, Hayes has value. He's a good player. He's just insanely overrated by some fans because of what he did for 24 games in 2020.
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You said there wasn't 5 players in the history of baseball who have had that kind of jump. I've already provided 3.

Swanson and Ramirez are absolutely impact players. Swanson got MVP votes in 2020 and has the same WAR as Hayes this year.

MrBrightside said:
Please show me where I said it is "impossible." Go ahead. I'll wait.

What I said was that massive jumps like what you're essentially assuming will occur with Hayes are very much the exception and not the rule. Citing to 2 or 3 guys who made them while ignoring the fact that the majors and minors are filled with hundreds of guys who didn't doesn't change that fact at all...in fact, it reinforces it.
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Okay, so you saying "there aren't 5 players in the history of baseball who have done that" doesn't mean "it's impossible" then.
 
MrBrightside

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Empoleon8771 said:
Oh, here's a fantastic example of a guy developing some power later in the majors: Jose Ramirez. In his first 3 years in the majors, he had a .346 slugging% and a .644 OPS from 2013-2016. In the minors, he had a .411 slugging% and a .766 OPS. Since 2016, Ramirez has a slugging% of .539 and has an OPS of .905.
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Ha what? Jose Ramirez had 91 extra-base hits and slugged .583 at age 24.
 
ChaosAgent

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It is possible Hayes becomes a great hitter, but it isn't likely. There is just something missing there. The inability to pull a ball in the air basically prohibits Hayes from having the kind of team-carrying runs that Reynolds is on, that Cutch went on, etc.

I'm not some hitting mechanics expert but I see a natural head dip and lunge at the ball that basically directs Hayes' energy to RF. It isn't natural for him to pull the ball.
 
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Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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DocEmrickSkitters said:
It is possible Hayes becomes a great hitter, but it isn't likely. There is just something missing there. The inability to pull a ball in the air basically prohibits Hayes from having the kind of team-carrying runs that Reynolds is on, that Cutch went on, etc.

I'm not some hitting mechanics expert but I see a natural head dip and lunge at the ball that basically directs Hayes' energy to RF. It isn't natural for him to pull the ball.
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I don't even think that what I'm throwing out is even Hayes being a "great" hitter.

No one in here is saying Hayes is going to become this elite hitter, I just expect him to be around a .800 OPS hitter. Which isn't really that big of a jump from where he's at now and is the kind of jump that a bunch of MLB players have done. This isn't "I want Hayes to become a power hitting 3rd baseman", it's "I want Hayes to convert the raw power he's hitting balls with into actual results".
 
ChaosAgent

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Empoleon8771 said:
I don't even think that what I'm throwing out is even Hayes being a "great" hitter.

No one in here is saying Hayes is going to become this elite hitter, I just expect him to be around a .800 OPS hitter. Which isn't really that big of a jump from where he's at now and is the kind of jump that a bunch of MLB players have done. This isn't "I want Hayes to become a power hitting 3rd baseman", it's "I want Hayes to convert the raw power he's hitting balls with into actual results".
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Isn't an .800 OPS hitter a great hitter these days?

But regardless.
I want him to get better. It's possible he does. It's also possible that he doesn't. And in the worst case, if he has any lower-body injuries (knock wood) his defense and baserunning value could be diminished and we're left with a 1-2 WAR guy. The danger of paying big money to anyone who derives their value from the defensive side of things.

I think he's a 3-4 WAR position player which is good enough for me. The question is what our path is to having our position players/DH contribute about 20-25 WAR total which is what we need for a championship team. If all these interesting-ish guys we've seen year-to-date become 1WAR MLB players it doesn't actually help us. And I'm not seeing the helium from the likes of Mitchell, CSN, Suwinski, Castillo and Swaggerty.
 
MrBrightside

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DocEmrickSkitters said:
Isn't an .800 OPS hitter a great hitter these days?

But regardless.
I want him to get better. It's possible he does. It's also possible that he doesn't. And in the worst case, if he has any lower-body injuries (knock wood) his defense and baserunning value could be diminished and we're left with a 1-2 WAR guy. The danger of paying big money to anyone who derives their value from the defensive side of things.

I think he's a 3-4 WAR position player which is good enough for me. The question is what our path is to having our position players/DH contribute about 20-25 WAR total which is what we need for a championship team. If all these interesting-ish guys we've seen year-to-date become 1WAR MLB players it doesn't actually help us. And I'm not seeing the helium from the likes of Mitchell, CSN, Suwinski, Castillo and Swaggerty.
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Agree with this. Disappointing to see Gonzales with an OPS of .743 at age 23 in AA also. NO I'M NOT SAYING TO CUT HIM, before anyone suggests that. Guys who are going to be impact major leaguers are generally already cracking into the majors by age 23, not scuffling at AA. The guys who are really stepping forward this year aren't the more highly regarded prospects in the system, which I guess is both good and bad.
 
Empoleon8771

Empoleon8771

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DocEmrickSkitters said:
Isn't an .800 OPS hitter a great hitter these days?
Click to expand...

This year yes, other years not as much. An .800 OPS this year would rank 45th in the MLB, while it would have ranked 60th last year and 63rd the year before.

I think an OPS of .800 should be a guy who's the 3rd best hitter on the best team in baseball, if everything was distributed equally. That's definitely good but I don't know that I'd call it great.

DocEmrickSkitters said:
But regardless.
I want him to get better. It's possible he does. It's also possible that he doesn't. And in the worst case, if he has any lower-body injuries (knock wood) his defense and baserunning value could be diminished and we're left with a 1-2 WAR guy. The danger of paying big money to anyone who derives their value from the defensive side of things.

I think he's a 3-4 WAR position player which is good enough for me. The question is what our path is to having our position players/DH contribute about 20-25 WAR total which is what we need for a championship team. If all these interesting-ish guys we've seen year-to-date become 1WAR MLB players it doesn't actually help us. And I'm not seeing the helium from the likes of Mitchell, CSN, Suwinski, Castillo and Swaggerty.
Click to expand...

He's at 2.7 WAR in 58 games this year, he's on track to get well above 3-4 WAR.

Even last year, Hayes only OPS'ed .689 but was on pace for 4.05 WAR over 162 games.
 
ChaosAgent

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Empoleon8771 said:
He's at 2.7 WAR in 58 games this year, he's on track to get well above 3-4 WAR.

Even last year, Hayes only OPS'ed .689 but was on pace for 4.05 WAR over 162 games.
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This is one where I think WAR is overrating defense.

And/or the other adage that on-base is more important than slugging and so OPS underweights Hayes' on-base abilities.

Maybe if Davis and Cruz both pop with power and we keep Reynolds, we say Hayes is our long-term leadoff guy.
 
MrBrightside

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Pretty striking difference in WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for Hayes. BRef has him at 2.7 and Fangraphs at 1.8. Such variance reinforces the subjectivity that goes into the stat, but I'd be curious as to why such a difference.
 
ChaosAgent

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MrBrightside said:
Agree with this. Disappointing to see Gonzales with an OPS of .743 at age 23 in AA also. NO I'M NOT SAYING TO CUT HIM, before anyone suggests that. Guys who are going to be impact major leaguers are generally already cracking into the majors by age 23, not scuffling at AA. The guys who are really stepping forward this year aren't the more highly regarded prospects in the system, which I guess is both good and bad.
Click to expand...

I don't think the Cherington slurpers, including our announcers, have wrapped their heads around how disappointing the minors have been this year.

Cruz was terrible, then better. But if he can't hit in April that is bad for us going forward. God forbid October gets cold too.
Gonzales not good.
The guys who have cracked the majors are playing replacement-level baseball. No one has broken out past that - Marcano has the best chance.
Who has stepped up pitching-wise? Burrows and....?
Look at Bradenton and Greensboro. Pretty barren. There isn't a multi-year influx of talent. 80% of the system is in Pittsburgh, Altoona or Indy.
 
Josey Wales

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DocEmrickSkitters said:
I don't think the Cherington slurpers, including our announcers, have wrapped their heads around how disappointing the minors have been this year.

Cruz was terrible, then better. But if he can't hit in April that is bad for us going forward. God forbid October gets cold too.
Gonzales not good.
The guys who have cracked the majors are playing replacement-level baseball. No one has broken out past that - Marcano has the best chance.
Who has stepped up pitching-wise? Burrows and....?
Look at Bradenton and Greensboro. Pretty barren. There isn't a multi-year influx of talent. 80% of the system is in Pittsburgh, Altoona or Indy.
Click to expand...
how about apply for GM
 
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NewAgeOutlaw

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Guys, literally all of baseball hits worse in cold weather, it is a major trend, not an individual thing.

Heck, Cutch in his prime was almost uniformly terrible until the weather started to heat up.

Baseballs go farther in hot weather.
 
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