Marlies vs. Devils Preview
http://www.marlies.ca/news/News.asp?story_id=3856
Adam Proteau
May 4, 2016
The Marlies followed up a hugely successful 2015-16 regular season that saw them finish as the American Hockey League’s best team with a first-round, three-game sweep of the Bridgeport Sound Tigers. However, Toronto’s second-round opponents – the Albany Devils – are likely to give them a much tougher battle.
As Marlies head coach Sheldon Keefe noted following his team’s first-round-series-clinching win last Thursday, the Devils are closer in composition to Toronto’s squad than the Tigers ever were: Albany finished the regular season second only to the Marlies in standings points – Toronto had 114, while Albany had 102 – and, like the Marlies, the Devils have received a late-season boost with the addition of a slew of talent who’d played in the NHL at some point in the year.
Albany eliminated the Utica Comets in four games in the first round, and they’ll start the series on the road, as the Marlies host the first two games of the best-of-seven showdown at Ricoh Coliseum (Game 1 takes place Wednesday, and Game 2 Friday). But both teams understand their task is significantly more difficult in this round.
Here’s a closer look at how Toronto and Albany match up:
FORWARDS: The Marlies have an astonishing amount of depth and balance at forward, and given that the playoffs at any professional hockey level are a war of attrition, Keefe will need to rely on that as circumstances change and injuries pile up. Two of Toronto’s key forwards – centre William Nylander and winger Nikita Soshnikov – were questionable to play Game 1 against Albany, and although their talents would be missed if they were sidelined, replacements for them exist in the form of veteran Colin Smith (who played just once against Bridgeport) and Tobias Lindberg and Kasperi Kapanen (both of whom were healthy scratches once in the first round).
Otherwise, Toronto will have the same embarrassment of riches up front. Winger Connor Brown finished the first round tied with blueliner Connor Carrick for the lead in Marlies scoring with three goals in as many games, while winger Josh Leivo led Toronto’s forwards with three assists. The Marlies also got goals from winger Zach Hyman, Soshnikov, Nylander, and veteran Ben Smith against Bridgeport, and received stellar performances from winger Brendan Leipsic, Mark Arcobello, Frederik Gauthier and Sam Carrick. Keefe can roll four lines, and each of them can be a difference-maker.
The Devils were led in first-round scoring by winger Reid Boucher (three goals), but seven of their other forwards – including centres Joseph Blandisi and Jim O’Brien and wingers Blake Pietila and Mike Sislo – combined to score Albany’s other 12 goals against Utica. But this is not a team that primarily depends on offence to win games. Albany scored 82 fewer regular-season goals than did the Marlies, and they rely on a stingier defence to give them the edge. So in this area, the edge goes to Toronto.
DEFENSEMEN: Toronto got six goals in their Game 3 win over Bridgeport, and five of them came from Marlies blueliners – including Connor Carrick, who had a hat trick, and T.J. Brennan who finished the first round with two goals. By contrast, the Devils didn’t receive a single goal from any blueliner, but as noted above, Albany employs a different approach: they allowed 24 fewer regular-season goals than the Marlies and play a lower-risk game. Considering they limited Utica to eight goals in the first round and have an organizational tradition of playing tight defence, you can make the case Albany has a slight edge here.
GOALTENDING: Antoine Bibeau and Garret Sparks alternated starts (and wins) in Toronto’s first two first-round games, but Bibeau had an off-night in Game 3 and was replaced by Sparks approximately halfway through the tilt. Keefe used the platoon system in part because of the number of back-to-back games in the series, but given that Sparks didn’t allow a single goal to the Tigers on any of the 44 total shots he saw against Bridgeport, Bibeau may start Round 2 on the bench.
Toronto-area native Scott Wedgewood started all four of Albany’s first round games and posted a sterling 1.93 goals-against average and .922 save percentage against Utica. The 23-year-old made his NHL debut in the regular season and has the ability to steal games. That said, he isn’t clearly better than Sparks or Bibeau, making this category a wash.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Devils finished with better power play and penalty kill units than Toronto – their PP was eighth-best (the Marlies had the 10th-best) in the AHL, and their PK was third-best (to Toronto’s ninth-best) – but the playoffs were a different story. Toronto scored three times on 11 man advantages for the AHL’s second-best PP unit (Albany was tied for third), and Albany didn’t allow a single goal while on the PK, killing off all 14 penalties they were assessed. All in all, this is an area in which there is no definitive advantage.
OVERALL: The Marlies won the regular-season series with Albany 4-2 and will have a raucous crowd at Ricoh Centre behind them when they take the ice Wednesday. In addition, they’ve got the benefit of home ice advantage – and when you take into account the Devils didn’t have the same degree of success on the road both in the regular season and post-season, you’d have to say Toronto has every chance to win this series and move on to the conference final. But it will take a consistent, full-team effort to do so, and Albany won’t do them any favours.