Prospect Info: Quinton Byfield (2nd Overall 2020 Draft) Discussion part II

[Raccoon Jesus]

Vilardi’s injury history was MORE evidence in favor of him busting, not the other way around. Do you know how many prospects fail precisely because of significant back injuries?

I’m not trying to lecture you or condescend. But you’re continuing to mistake the exception for the rule, and that’s what I have an issue with.

Okay, but you're continuing to apply 'the rule' as absolute and beyond argument and hold it against people's opinions and apparently judge them for it.

Anyway, to trace this back to where it started--despite some historical statistics, there was plenty of evidence for Vilardi being around the corner of a breakout, just as there is plenty of evidence Byfield could be on the same. Someone said anyone that believed that about Vilardi is lying--which is why I said hey wait a minute.

But the snarky condescending comments about patting ourselves on the back for being right is poor form, it's not about that, it's that we saw something in the guy when the 'historical trends' didn't, AKA a difference in evidence-based opinion, not some bullshit blind 'oh yeah you believed in Tukonen too' hope like you were suggesting, that's insulting and you can stop there if you don't want it to be 'personal.'

 

[King'sPawn]

Vilardi’s injury history was MORE evidence in favor of him busting, not the other way around. Do you know how many prospects fail precisely because of significant back injuries?

I’m not trying to lecture you or condescend. But you’re continuing to mistake the exception for the rule, and that’s what I have an issue with.

His talent was apparent. His health was not. Nobody can say that they KNEW he would pan out, because nobody knew his health status. But people did say IF he can recover, then he still had plenty of potential.

Applying conventional analysis for a player going through extremely unusual circumstances that 99% of other players in your dataset haven't gone through is faulty. You can have issue with that, but plenty of people have just said he needs more time, because he missed years of playing. And you're right, he could very well have not panned out. It was certainly a possibility. But not for the same reasons others failed to make it. Whether or not Vilardi panned out, you have a very small dataset of prospects in remotely similar situations that I think precludes you from making a "rule."

With Byfield, I don't think the Kings have handled him well. At least not until late this season. So, applying statistical probabilities to a player whose circumstances differ from other players in his dataset (i.e. other top-five picks) may not be an accurate form of projecting or predicting.

But ultimately my initial post was just trying to be funny about how similar arguments are being thrown between the two parties. One side says at this point, he's roving between bust and disappointment. The other side is calling for more patience. Talk about a misfire with my humor.

 

[Maynard]

Byfield is gonna surprise a lot of you guys next year. That’s all I’m going to say.

Thanks!

 

[FeartheFur]

You guys kill me.

 

[tny760]

Byfield is gonna surprise a lot of you guys next year. That’s all I’m going to say.

you got the lotto numbers too? hook it up

 

[Statto]

Statistical averages are useful when applied to large batches, but less useful when applied to singular cases.

An individual evaluation likely carries more predicative weight, but can't be fully quantified because it involves qualitative analysis.

I feel pretty confident Byfield will be fine. Perhaps not the elite player you hoped you were getting at 2OA (although that upside is still there), but I think a very good player.

That said, I can't completely disregard the possibility that he busts, but I think the chances are relatively low based on what I've seen of him.

I agree.

If you want to use statistical comparisons you need to use a cohort of 20 year olds with approximately 99 NHL (126 pro) games that have missed significant (69 games) time to injury and illness. Otherwise you are comparing apples to oranges. I’d say that within a group of similar players the odds of breaking out increase than when comparing to all players at D + 3. There’s probably not that many players that meet that criteria but comparing against D + 3 players with no significant injury time is completely invalid. To do so assumes age is the most important factor which for someone aged 20 it absolutely is not.

 

[kingskring]

 

[johnjm22]

Byfield's 5v5 P60 this year was 1.73, while having a shooting percentage of 1.7%.

That P60 usually puts you in the 45ish point range.

Players with similar P60 who played a full season:

Player	GP	TOI/GP	G	A	P	P/60	S% 5v5	OZ%
Jordan Staal	81​	12:53​	17​	17​	34​	1.78​	14​	52.6​
Conor Garland	81​	12:53​	17​	29​	46​	1.78​	8.6​	47.6​
Evgeny Kuznetsov	81​	12:54​	12​	43​	55​	1.78​	5.9​	62.1​
Rickard Rakell	82​	14:37​	28​	32​	60​	1.75​	9.4​	61.2​
Blake Coleman	82​	13:27​	18​	20​	38​	1.74​	7.3​	55.2​
Kaapo Kakko	82​	13:32​	18​	22​	40​	1.73​	13.8​	53.5​
Quinton Byfield	53​	12:26​	3​	19​	22​	1.73​	1.7​	45.8​
Jordan Martinook	82​	13:13​	13​	21​	34​	1.72​	7.3​	52.9​
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	82​	12:27​	18​	25​	43​	1.7​	12.2​	61.5​
Brandon Tanev	82​	11:12​	16​	19​	35​	1.7​	9.8​	51.3​
Barclay Goodrow	82​	11:39​	11​	20​	31​	1.7​	12.5​	43.4​
Kevin Hayes	81​	13:58​	18​	36​	54​	1.7​	6​	53.7​
Ryan Strome	82​	13:48​	15​	26​	41​	1.7​	10.2​	53.2​
Anders Lee	82​	13:25​	28​	22​	50​	1.69​	11.9​	58.4​
Chris Kreider	79​	12:37​	36​	18​	54​	1.69​	13.8​	48​
Tomas Hertl	79​	14:52​	22​	41​	63​	1.69​	10.9​	56.6​
J.T. Miller	81​	13:41​	32​	50​	82​	1.68​	9.4​	50.2​
Michael McLeod	80​	10:45​	4​	22​	26​	1.68​	3.6​	35.6​
Max Domi	80​	14:03​	20​	36​	56​	1.65​	6.6​	53.2​

The reason for the wide variation in point totals is because of the PowerPlay obviously.

If he's healthy this year, he should be a 40+ point player.

 

[Bandit]

you got the lotto numbers too? hook it up

8 9 11 19 24 and… 55

You’re welcome.

 

[King'sPawn]

8 9 11 19 24 and… 55

You’re welcome.

2 17 26 28 40 50 are the numbers that come to mind when I think of lottery potential.

 

[Bandit]

2 17 26 28 40 50 are the numbers that come to mind when I think of lottery potential.

what the hell did JAD ever do to you????

 

[King'sPawn]

what the hell did JAD ever do to you????

It was an homage Stoll for the party favors he'd bring when the lottery is won

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

No.

I want a full healthy season with a Fiala - Byfield - Vilardi line.

This line is gonna ****

And playing in a situation like this, on a line like this, should be massively beneficial for QB.

Hopefully we get that this year.

But if Byfield is still averaging a blistering 5-20-25 in 60gp after next year, we should absolutely look into a trade like this.

Also, I don't necessarily disagree with this - And I'm a massive Byfield believer. Next year will be crucial and if he still looks underwhelming, especially when playing with top talent like Fiala and Gabe, then yeah... Maybe we do cut our losses.

 

[Lt Dan]

This line is gonna ****

Is that word
****
or
****
or
**** ??

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

Is that word
****
or
****
or
**** ??

**** lol

No one ever swears on these boards so idk what's kosher here but it starts with an F and ends with a K (oh god plzz don't get me in trouble lol)

 

[Lt Dan]

**** lol

No one ever swears on these boards so idk what's kosher here but it starts with an F and ends with a K (oh god plzz don't get me in trouble lol)

OK so fork (please no infractions mods) [we are having a forking productive discussion]

 

[KopitarGOAT420]

New Byfield highlight vid for anyone interested.. The video just highlights his AHL goals from last season.

Obviously he struggled to find the back of the net at the NHL level, but you can see some pretty elite offensive skill showcased in these clips. He also did show flashes at the NHL level this past year despite being a little underwhelming for a 2nd OA pick.

He has a good/great shot. He has great hands. He has high end or potentially even elite offensive skills.

Should be a fun year for him next year. GKG

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Only scores on rushes though

Even though 90% of those goals were not rushes

 

[Schrute farms]

Well, 100% of those 10% rushes are solely rush scores. Obviously that translates to Bustfield

 

[jgs]

The way I see it. The Kings are real slow at developing players into NHL ready. Look at Turcott, kids' been with the Kings what 4 years and still not NHL ready, Villardi has taken quite a bit of time, but looks like he is getting where he needs to be. Spence is an up and down sending machine, Clark who knows if he will be with the Kings this coming season and Byfield this will be his third season, little improvement but not much, I don't think he pans out to be what the Kings need him to be. He doesn't have that presence on the ice that he is an elite player in the making. Now I'm not saying it is all the players fault because TMac is on record as stating is the coaching staff's job at getting the prospect ready and I don't think he has done a good job at that.

 

[Esteban Tornado]

The way I see it. The Kings are real slow at developing players into NHL ready. Look at Turcott, kids' been with the Kings what 4 years and still not NHL ready, Villardi has taken quite a bit of time, but looks like he is getting where he needs to be. Spence is an up and down sending machine, Clark who knows if he will be with the Kings this coming season and Byfield this will be his third season, little improvement but not much, I don't think he pans out to be what the Kings need him to be. He doesn't have that presence on the ice that he is an elite player in the making. Now I'm not saying it is all the players fault because TMac is on record as stating is the coaching staff's job at getting the prospect ready and I don't think he has done a good job at that.

So do injuries count at all in your assessments?

 

[Andreas Ferrari]

you got the lotto numbers too? hook it up

Since I'm Canadian...6 12 18 24 26 40.

While I'm here how aboot a trade?

PLD for Byfield straight up?

 

[Sol]

Since I'm Canadian...6 12 18 24 26 40.

While I'm here how aboot a trade?

PLD for Byfield straight up?

DONE

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Since I'm Canadian...6 12 18 24 26 40.

While I'm here how aboot a trade?

PLD for Byfield straight up?

No.

 

[Schrute farms]

Since I'm Canadian...6 12 18 24 26 40.

While I'm here how aboot a trade?

PLD for Byfield straight up?

I seriously LOL at that bolded. Not sure if you did that on purpose to be funny or not. Either way, well done.

Asset wise, it would make sense for the Kings and enable the foolish go-for-it formula with DD/Kopi a better shot. The problem is the contract and need for an extension next year or he's gone in FA. I'm not sure what would be worse -- losing him after one year for nothing or giving him a big $$ long extension.