Salary Cap: Pulp Philction Edition

[Shady Machine]

Mike Johnston's system worries me the most.Even more than the defense.

Please explain what worries you about his system.

 

[mpp9]

I didn't see anything of the sort so we must have been watching different games or different teams.

Then there's no point in continuing. If you didnt' see Sid and Geno cheating quite a bit (not blaming them, alot of that is second nature after years of being told to stretch the ice out), our wingers incapable of maintaining possession and 2 of our top 4 D basically out for the season with Ehrhoff really only having a month of two of solid play, then there's no point in continuing.

The team was running on adrenaline at the beginning. Then came time to actually deal with the issues. The forward group wasn't good enough and our defense couldnt' stay healthy enough.

 

[Shady Machine]

The guy had a chance with a healthy team in the beginning of the season. The breakout, neutral zone transition, and offensive zone entry were quickly scouted and defended against. Johnston was never adequately able to adjust.

Johnston's systems were not effective at the NHL level for more than a month, and Johnston could not adapt them to be more effective.

With Martin, Ehrhoff, Maatta, Letang, and Despres, it wasn't a roster issue. You're delusional if you think this year's roster has as much puck moving capability as last. Adding Pouliot helps but it doesn't cover subtracting Martin, Ehrhoff and Despres

It was a coaching issue.

It was one season with a new coach and 40% roster turnover. The Pens came out gangbusters. They started to struggle once teams figured out the system and the team hit injury trouble. I don't think MJ had the proper roster or time to make the adjustments. Once the playoffs rolled around, he totally altered their style of play to suit the roster he had at his disposal. I think he did a decent job under the circumstances. Let's give him another season before we fully judge.

That said, I agree this defense will be worse at moving the puck, especially early on.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Oh really? We have a General Manager who has done nothing but add, never SUBTRACT from the roster. Hell, Shero was like that as well.

If we don't start dumping some bodies for future assets, we'll have another season in which we're in a cap crunch. It's not once in a decade at all, it's 1-for-1 under Jim Rutherford.

The minute we see him sell ANYBODY, then your statement will ring truer.

The GM's and Coaches have changed, but ownership and the guy who does the cap crunching hasn't.

Subtracting doesn't equal to just trading guys away.

Gone in his two seasons. This amounts to over an entire team by numbers.
17 - forwards
9 - D-men
2 - goalies


Neal
Orpik
Niskanen
Jokinen
Martin
Ehrhoff
Vitale
Glass
Engelland
Bortuzzo
Adams
Stempniak
Connor
Despres
Jeffery
Pyatt
Sill
Goc
Samuelsson
Comeau
Greiss
Downie
Spaling
Klinkhammer
Arcobello
Lapierre
Harrington
Kapanen
Vokoun

 

[pistolpete11]

The guy had a chance with a healthy team in the beginning of the season. The breakout, neutral zone transition, and offensive zone entry were quickly scouted and defended against. Johnston was never adequately able to adjust.

Johnston's systems were not effective at the NHL level for more than a month, and Johnston could not adapt them to be more effective.

With Martin, Ehrhoff, Maatta, Letang, and Despres, it wasn't a roster issue. You're delusional if you think this year's roster has as much puck moving capability as last. Adding Pouliot helps but it doesn't cover subtracting Martin, Ehrhoff and Despres

It was a coaching issue.

If you're saying it's a coaching issue, then I think you're confusing things by arguing about the personnel.

Personnel-wise, I think it's at least a wash. They lost Martin, Ehrhoff, and Despres but they added Pouliot (who has more skill than any of them), Cole (who I thought showed he could move the puck), and potentially Dumoulin. Plus the obvious addition of Kessel who can carry the puck and more time with Perron and a healthy defense.

System-wise, we'll see. I agree it wasn't very good last year, but he was a rookie head coach. What worked in juniors is not necessarily going to work in the NHL. If his hockey IQ is as high as some people say it is, then he will have had an entire offseason to figure it out.

 

[billybudd]

The guy had a chance with a healthy team in the beginning of the season. The breakout, neutral zone transition, and offensive zone entry were quickly scouted and defended against. Johnston was never adequately able to adjust.

Johnston's systems were not effective at the NHL level for more than a month, and Johnston could not adapt them to be more effective.

With Martin, Ehrhoff, Maatta, Letang, and Despres, it wasn't a roster issue. You're delusional if you think this year's roster has as much puck moving capability as last. Adding Pouliot helps but it doesn't cover subtracting Martin, Ehrhoff and Despres

It was a coaching issue.

It was absolutely a roster issue, specifically due to lack of speed and size at wing.

We began the year playing a low collapse. Thoroughly orthodox strategy that was abandoned right around the time everyone got the mumps. If I had to guess why, my guess would be because the low collapse requires wings to either be quick enough to pressure the points or big enough to dissuade the D from pinching by hammering them. Outside of Dupuis (who was out for the year after 15 games or w/e) and, to a lesser extent, Comeau, ours were neither.

From then on, everybody was hurt. First it was every wing that was worth a damn (Dupuis, Hornqvist and Comeau were all out simultaneously). When they came back, the entire D was quickly decimated and Malkin's own health issues made him a dead man skating.

Nothing above is a coaching issue. There's no system I know of that can compensate for wings that are simultaneously slower and smaller than everyone they play against when the D are also somewhat weak. Everything has major tradeoffs.

I don't think it's a given that we make the playoffs. We're in a murderer's row division. Points will come easier to the #4 team in the Atlantic than they will to the #5 team in the Patrick division.

The wing issue is much improved (Kessel>Comeau, Duper>Winnik...I don't know if Plotnikov will score more than Downie, but he has the look of someone that will help you more in an X and O sense), but Derek Pouliot + Lovejoy/Cole on a second pair and Kessel/Perron presumably getting big minutes strikes me as a recipe for blown/ignored assignments and pucks in the net. We might outscore this problem, but I'm not about to throw money down either way.

But if we miss, it won't be due to Johnston. Frankly, if we have a poor October, I have a strong belief that Jacques Martin will be the coach in November. Johnston's a lame duck. He's in the second year of a two year deal with a team option for a third and he wasn't the guy we wanted in the first place. To say he's on a short leash would be an understatement (even though I don't think any negative outcomes last season had anything at all to do with him).

 

[AjaxTelamon]

I didn't see anything of the sort so we must have been watching different games or different teams.

I saw a left wing outlet that was consistently covered resulting in a stalling of the break out as the defenders spent too long trying to figure out plan B and the forwards had to come back from their planned release routes and didn't have a plan B.

The few successes were planned Crosby releases for a stretch pass up the middle, and Malkin carrying the puck out.

After the system struggled, Johnston had the center almost below the goal line for the breakout which completely destroyed the neutral zone play and any opportunity for offensive zone time. The offense stalled because Johnston's breakout was deeply flawed.

I saw a lot of puck support at the beginning of the year, and increased cheating up ice as guys fell into familiar patterns. And this was compounded greatly by the D health problems, and losses to the forward group. A thin forward group lost Dupuis, BB faded fast from his pre-season form, PH was lost for a couple long stretches, and Kunitz went off a cliff after the first month.

Not sure how you expect a coach to adjust to not having a single legit top 6 winger for long stretches of the season, and losing his best puck moving D men for which his system is expressly designed for long stretches to boot.

 

[drpepper]

It was absolutely a roster issue, specifically due to lack of speed and size at wing.

We began the year playing a low collapse. Thoroughly orthodox strategy that was abandoned right around the time everyone got the mumps. If I had to guess why, my guess would be because the low collapse requires wings to either be quick enough to pressure the points or big enough to dissuade the D from pinching by hammering them. Outside of Dupuis (who was out for the year after 15 games or w/e) and, to a lesser extent, Comeau, ours were neither.

From then on, everybody was hurt. First it was every wing that was worth a damn (Dupuis, Hornqvist and Comeau were all out simultaneously). When they came back, the entire D was quickly decimated and Malkin's own health issues made him a dead man skating.

Nothing above is a coaching issue. There's no system I know of that can compensate for wings that are simultaneously slower and smaller than everyone they play against when the D are also somewhat weak.

I don't think it's a given that we make the playoffs. We're in a murderer's row division. Points will come easier to the #4 team in the Atlantic than they will to the #5 team in the Patrick division.

The wing issue is much improved (Kessel>Comeau, Duper>Winnik...I don't know if Plotnikov will score more than Downie, but he has the look of someone that will help you more in an X and O sense), but Derek Pouliot + Lovejoy/Cole on a second pair and Kessel/Perron presumably getting big minutes strikes me as a recipe for blown/ignored assignments and pucks in the net. We might outscore this problem, but I'm not about to throw money down either way.

But if we miss, it won't be due to Johnston. Frankly, if we have a poor October, I have a strong belief that Jacques Martin will be the coach in November. Johnston's a lame duck. He's in the second year of a two year deal with a team option for a third and he wasn't the guy we wanted in the first place. To say he's on a short leash would be an understatement (even though I don't think any negative outcomes last season had anything at all to do with him).

The low collapse continued to be the defensive strategy until the trip to California. It was switched for an overload which was a complete failure because it requires the wings to cover even more territory.

I understand that the roster on the wings (lack of speed) and defense (slow decision making and injury) wasn't ideal. But Johnston initially chose an ill-fitting system and continued to make adjustments that didn't fit the personnel and in fact exacerbated the roster weaknesses.

The breakout issue wasn't personnel; it was choosing a single strategy that was not well suited for either the wings or the defense and then being unable to change it. The problem was the initial plan being a LW outlet which was easily scouted, predictable, and defended against. Johnston then tried to adjust with bringing the center down lower although the wings still released too high and didn't have a plan B (reload options). This completely neutered offensive production (which was partially strategy and partially personnel). It was also equally ineffective unless Malkin was single handedly carrying the puck out. Johnston then tried coming through the center ice with a cross ice pass to the RW or up the middle pass to the C or RW. Johnston then resorted to stretch passes as all else had failed, and he didn't have the personnel to do anything else.

Also I was not impressed with Cole's puck moving capabilities. He's average. I like Dumoulin's abilities with the puck and to make a pass at the AHL level, but I think he might have some issues adjusting to NHL speed.

 

[billybudd]

The low collapse continued to be the defensive strategy until the trip to California. It was switched for an overload which was a complete failure because it requires the wings to cover even more territory.

I understand that the roster on the wings (lack of speed) and defense (slow decision making and injury) wasn't ideal. But Johnston initially chose an ill-fitting system and continued to make adjustments that didn't fit the personnel and in fact exacerbated the roster weaknesses.

The breakout issue wasn't personnel; it was choosing a single strategy that was not well suited for either the wings or the defense and then being unable to change it. The problem was the initial plan being a LW outlet which was easily scouted, predictable, and defended against. Johnston then tried to adjust with bringing the center down lower although the wings still released to high and didn't have a plan B (reload options). This completely neutered offensive production (which was partially strategy and partially personnel). It was also equally ineffective unless Malkin was single handedly carrying the puck out. Johnston then tried coming through the center ice with a cross ice pass to the RW or up the middle pass to the C or RW. Johnston then resorted to stretch passes as all else had failed, and he didn't have the personnel to do anything else.

I mean, this is my entire point. Johnston didn't have the personnel to execute any system properly and transitioning from defense to attack was completely out of the question with what he had available to him by season's end. Chorney and Dumoulin were the only D even trying to skate the puck out of danger or make a pass to anyone but the glass, and they were minor leaguers with no playoff experience.

 

[drpepper]

I mean, this is my entire point. Johnston didn't have the personnel to execute any system properly and transitioning from defense to attack was completely out of the question with what he had available to him by season's end. Chorney and Dumoulin were the only D even trying to skate the puck out of danger or make a pass to anyone but the glass, and they were minor leaguers with no playoff experience.

By the end of the season, I agree that injuries played a huge role.

But in October and November, Johnston had the personnel and chose an easily exploited, ill-suited breakout system. He then was unable to change it as teams scouted it and exploited it. In October and Novemeber, it wasn't a personnel issue. It was a systems and coaching issue.

You seem to be ignoring the huge issues the Pens had early in the season at 5v5 in favor of focusing on injuries and strategy changes that didn't happen until the second half of the season.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I'm with, Aiastelmon.

How you can be set up and expect anything working properly with constant moving parts in and out of the lineup is questionable to start with. They almost didn't make the playoffs when they were a sure bet to be in them at the midway point.

**** happens, and it kept happening.

It's basically a season to throw away other then getting parts to move forward with.

This season comes with a new clean slate. Stay healthy and they should do well enough to get them where they can make adjustments instead of replacements.

 

[billybudd]

By the end of the season, I agree that injuries played a huge role.

But in October and November, Johnston had the personnel and chose an easily exploited, ill-suited breakout system. He then was unable to change it as teams scouted it and exploited it. In October and Novemeber, it wasn't a personnel issue. It was a systems and coaching issue.

You seem to be ignoring the huge issues the Pens had early in the season at 5v5 in favor of focusing on injuries and strategy changes that didn't happen until the second half of the season.

We weren't losing in October and November and our even strength goal differential was positive. I think we were first, actually.

 

[drpepper]

We weren't losing in October and November and our even strength goal differential was positive. I think we were first, actually.

So because the Pens weren't losing, it means that the breakout and transition was effective? That is a terrible argument.

The Pens success early in the season was bolstered by the PP which was converting at an unsustainably high shooting percentage. PP success covered a lot of issues in 5v5 play that became obvious when the PP cooled. The issues at 5v5 were present the whole time; people were just focused on other things.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Aside from the Rangers, what other defense in our division is considerably better? The Isles have Boychuk and Leddy as their best D-men. The Caps have no #1D and Orpik in their top 4. Columbus has JJ as their #1 and an oft-injured Murray.

With all the forward talent brought in this offseason, this division will be all about last goal wins. We're built to win those types of games as currently constructed.

John Carlson is a legit No. 1 defenseman in my book. Otherwise, I do agree with this.

We could finish anywhere between 1st and 5th in our division without any real surprise. None of us, Rangers, Caps, Isles or BJs are enough better than the rest to really set themselves above the pack. What will be surprising is if those aren't the top 5 in the division. What sucks is its very possible for one of those 5 to miss the playoffs.

I think the rags regress this year.

I think the difference/problem is we have the worst coach of the five teams, IMO.

Johnston's system is fine.... if he can friggin put the players in the right spots.

Yeah, well what good is a coach's system if even HE doesn't know what to do with it? I remain skeptical on Johnston, top to bottom.

I mean, this is my entire point. Johnston didn't have the personnel to execute any system properly and transitioning from defense to attack was completely out of the question with what he had available to him by season's end. Chorney and Dumoulin were the only D even trying to skate the puck out of danger or make a pass to anyone but the glass, and they were minor leaguers with no playoff experience.

Yeah but there's no way we should have finished middle of the pack offensively during the regular season. Our superstars were mostly healthy last season. Johnston's system turned Crosby into a guy who loses the scoring title to Jamie Benn.

I remain unconvinced that Johnston will know what to do/how to use Phil Kessel. But at least we have Phil the Thrill and Rutherford CLEARLY wants to improve the offense, run the team through Sid and Geno and wants four lines of offense.

SO, if we're not looking any better in those areas 20 games into '15-16, Johnston will be gone for sure.

 

[Ugene Magic]

So because the Pens weren't losing, it means that the breakout and transition was effective? That is a terrible argument.

The Pens success early in the season was bolstered by the PP which was converting at an unsustainably high shooting percentage. PP success covered a lot of issues in 5v5 play that became obvious when the PP cooled. The issues at 5v5 were present the whole time; people were just focused on other things.

PP's are a result of 5 on 5 play. It's not the first time a team relied on their PP. It cooled after guys started getting hurt and were missing, including their best player with the mumps in early Dec.

They were a team with a new coach and system, there is bound to be hiccups.

 

[drpepper]

PP's are a result of 5 on 5 play. It's not the first time a team relied on their PP. It cooled after guys started getting hurt and were missing, including their best player with the mumps in early Dec.

They were a team with a new coach and system, there is bound to be hiccups.

Unsustainable shooting percentage on the PP has nothing to do with 5v5 play. It cooled before people began to get hurt.

The breakout was a problem from the beginning of the season that Johnston was unable to solve. Maybe he solves it this year. However, I see no reason to blindly believe that he can solve it until he actually does it.

 

[billybudd]

So because the Pens weren't losing, it means that the breakout and transition was effective? That is a terrible argument.

The Pens success early in the season was bolstered by the PP which was converting at an unsustainably high shooting percentage. PP success covered a lot of issues in 5v5 play that became obvious when the PP cooled. The issues at 5v5 were present the whole time; people were just focused on other things.

The breakout was very effective in those two months. What was not effective, especially against large teams, was the low collapse. Not because it was getting us scored on (it wasn't), but because there was a perpetual cycle against any time Comeau or Duper wasn't on the ice (or Malkin wasn't playing wing) and the other team got set up. It only worked for 2 of 4 forward groups. The two it did not work for were composed almost entirely of wings that can't skate, with the sole exception of Sill, who can skate a little, but can't play at all.

But yes. When you're outscoring other teams at even strength by a large margin, it can't be argued that you're suffering from overall systemic failure unless your roster is substantially better than everyone else's. This sets the bar for success so high that no club would ever meet it.

 

[steveg]

I just cant see JR bringing back a guy (or bringing in a guy) with little to no offense to his game. After talking about wanting balance and 4 legit lines.

Lappiere and Winnik were moves to combat Washington and NYI's "grit" advantage. It sounds like JR is commiting to a skilled lineup that suits this team better. Speed needs to be a priority as well.

Makes sense -- and that (plus his salary demands, assuming he wants something similar to what he made last year) probably explains why he's not been re-signed by the Pens. I'd really, really love to see Sundqvist pencilled in as the 4C this year (assuming he looks as good in this camp as he did last year), so in my mind bringing in another center isn't that important -- aside from the potential faceoff issues being discussed...

 

[The Greatest 101]

The breakout was very effective in those two months. What was not effective, especially against large teams, was the low collapse. Not because it was getting us scored on (it wasn't), but because there was a perpetual cycle against any time Comeau or Duper wasn't on the ice (or Malkin wasn't playing wing) and the other team got set up. It only worked for 2 of 4 forward groups. The two it did not work for were composed almost entirely of wings that can't skate, with the sole exception of Sill, who can skate a little, but can't play at all.

But yes. When you're outscoring other teams at even strength by a large margin, it can't be argued that you're suffering from overall systemic failure unless your roster is substantially better than everyone else's. This sets the bar for success so high that no club would ever meet it.

And they lost 5-0 to the rangers in November.

 

[Riptide]

Kunitz is probably more tradeable, but he is coming off a bad second half and there still are guys out there in UFA that are of equivalent or greater value . There are a few former top 6 guys in their mid 30's who are falling down to 3rd line status and are cheaper than Kunitz. They are in the same age range as he is and their careers aren't as tied to a superstar as Kunitz is. For less than the price you are paying for him, you probably get a high risk high reward guy like semin, or maybe Jokienen and Morrow.

Till the options die down, both of these guys aren't going anywhere

Not sure those are comparable players though. Semin sure. There you're taking a chance on a short contract for a potential 60 point offensive winger. But Morrow and Jokinen have not been top 6 players for several years now. Kunitz in a dismal season was still a 40 point player. Of those 4, I would bet on Semin and Kunitz as being the only two that could possibly be top 6 players in the right circumstance.

I know we all want CK gone... but I really don't think that JR is trying all that hard to move him. Sure he apparently offered him up in the Kessel deal, but that doesn't mean all that much. I really think that JR and co think that Kunitz can really have a bounce back season, and that his poor season last year wasn't tied to his age, but his foot injury and his iron issue. And honestly... that's probably a safe bet. If he can get back to where he was 16 months ago, then him at 3.85m while expensive can still be an asset to this team. Probably an expensive one and one that we likely cannot afford past next season, but still an asset.

 

[mpp9]

Makes sense -- and that (plus his salary demands, assuming he wants something similar to what he made last year) probably explains why he's not been re-signed by the Pens. I'd really, really love to see Sundqvist pencilled in as the 4C this year (assuming he looks as good in this camp as he did last year), so in my mind bringing in another center isn't that important -- aside from the potential faceoff issues being discussed...

They're more likely to dump a player and overpay for a guy like Santorelli than bring back Lappiere, IMO. Not saying it's the move to make b/c I'm not real high on that player, but that seems to be the type of player they're going to target.

If Stephen Weiss can play 8-10 minutes/night and stay relatively healthy, I'd go after him on a cheap 1 year deal rather than pander to a fan base wanting PK skillz, a sexy faceoff stat line and "grit".

If advanced stats are good for anything, it's driving the point home that players who are good at ES are also going to be at least decent on the PK. These PK specialists almost always bring little at ES. It's almost like they're "good" on the PK b/c they're used to not having the puck, which is pretty obvious with Craig Adams.

 

[billybudd]

And they lost 5-0 to the rangers in November.

And shut out the Kings a mere week earlier.

 

[The Greatest 101]

And shut out the Kings a mere week earlier.

And the Kings missed playoffs last season.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

And the Kings missed playoffs last season.

Yeah how can the team ever lose 1 game? My goodness.

 

[drpepper]

The breakout was very effective in those two months. What was not effective, especially against large teams, was the low collapse. Not because it was getting us scored on (it wasn't), but because there was a perpetual cycle against any time Comeau or Duper wasn't on the ice (or Malkin wasn't playing wing) and the other team got set up. It only worked for 2 of 4 forward groups. The two it did not work for were composed almost entirely of wings that can't skate, with the sole exception of Sill, who can skate a little, but can't play at all.

But yes. When you're outscoring other teams at even strength by a large margin, it can't be argued that you're suffering from overall systemic failure unless your roster is substantially better than everyone else's. This sets the bar for success so high that no club would ever meet it.

You seem focused on the low collapse. You realize the Pens continued to play a modified low collapse until March, right? And that the replacement looked ten times worse and directly was the cause of goals against?

I don't think the problem lies with what defensive system they are using but how Johnston (or Agnew) has the team playing especially 1v1, against the boards, and when an opposing player is switching zones. The Pens seem coached to back off. It is especially evident on the downlow cycle and behind the net.

I think that talent overcame the flaws in the system in a similar way that talent could over come the flaws in Bylsma's systems.

If Johnston doesn't change anything with the breakout, I don't think the new roster additions will be any more suitable for it this year than last year's roster. That is the coach's responsibility.