Salary Cap: Pulp Philction Edition

[Fordy]

And the Kings missed playoffs last season.

you know originally you were asked to list what your worries about the system were, not to point out that the pens lost one game in november

 

[Ugene Magic]

And the Kings missed playoffs last season.

Well they beat Montreal 4-0 a few games later.

 

[billybudd]

And the Kings missed playoffs last season.

And beat the Rangers in a 7 game series the previous.

What kind of point do you think you're making that the Penguins lost a single game to the Rangers in November? That didn't or doesn't mean anything.

You seem focused on the low collapse. You realize the Pens continued to play a modified low collapse until March, right? And that the replacement looked ten times worse and directly was the cause of goals against?

I think that talent overcame the flaws in the system in a similar way that talent could over come the flaws in Bylsma's systems.

By February, the Penguins were playing a pretty textbook half ice overload. I'd start pulling screenshots and videos, but I'm about done here for the day. Suffice it to say, you could take our coverage, overlay it with the half-ice overload diagram in a coaching book and it would match 1-1. It did directly lead to goals against (often because Perron, Bennett, Scuderi and, to a much lesser extent, Downie were incapable of playing it), but not in appreciably high numbers. We did not give up a lot of goals late in the season, just scored less with no transition and 1.5 wings playing passable hockey.

In the second half of the season, the Penguins did not have the talent to overcome anything, nor did they overcome anything. That the Rangers series was close instead of a blowout is a feather in Johnston's cap. I'd link Ranger threads from around that time where posters were angry with AV for not being able to get the puck through Johnston's neutral zone (which is the one thing he did that was not conventional), but I'm out of time.

Idea that there's some rabbit Johnston could have (let alone should have) pulled out of his hat that simultaneously nullifies his roster's disadvantages in size and skating on the wing and in every way on defense is not realistic. You already admitted as much--there's nothing Johnston could have done that would have worked with what he had available.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I think the difference/problem is we have the worst coach of the five teams, IMO.

Capuono is a pretty bad coach

 

[Riptide]

I think that's wishful/hopeful thinking, sadly. If JR wanted to move Sutter, I'm sure he'd be gone. Like I said, 20 goals or not, he was awful last season and the season before. He'll command ~$5M or more on his next deal, and I have a feeling we'll give it to him.

Fortunately our roster likely prevents that from happening. We have 12 players currently signed going into the 16/17 season, that accounts for ~57m. That's 6 forwards and 5D. We would also need to sign Perron and Maatta. Say 9m for both of them, and that puts us at ~66m for 15 players signed. And that's not accounting for any bonuses that carry into next season. So with Kunitz being one year older, I do not see a situation where Rutherford can afford to give Sutter 4.5m+ without getting Kunitz or Scuderi off the roster (I expect Dupuis to be someone who will finish out his contract with Pittsburgh). Perhaps if he doesn't sign Perron... but I can't see even him (JR) being that stupid.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Not that having around 4.0/5.0 of cap space is bad, but the overreaction to one season out of a decade of spending to the cap that had major influences to cause such a bad situation is just that.

The issue was having catastrophic injuries after the TDL (no LTIR) after replacing assets lost during the season.

Once in a decade.

I don't expect those scenarios to repeat. That's more then just a bit of wiggle room.

And yet here we find ourselves again, with a similar cap situation and no wiggle room. One would think they'd learn from the experience, instead of say, "It's only happened once, it won't happen again".

Furthermore, it's cap space that's just being wasted. Take Scuderi. If the club is serious about contending, he won't be anything more than a 7th defenseman. If he's more than that, then their strategy of going young and playing guys like Pouliot and Dumoulin won't happen. If he's the 7th guy, then the Pens are wasting almost $4 million in cap space on a guy who will be in the press box all the time.

Not exactly learning from their mistakes, regardless of whether or not what happened last year was a "one time thing".

It's one thing if they've got cap space tied up in players who actually are going to be positives for this club. But when you've got all this cap space tied up in players who will actually make your team worse, I'd say it's a pretty dire situation to be in.

 

[drpepper]

And beat the Rangers in a 7 game series the previous.

What kind of point do you think you're making that the Penguins lost a single game to the Rangers in November? That didn't or doesn't mean anything.




By February, the Penguins were playing a pretty textbook half ice overload. I'd start pulling screenshots and videos, but I'm about done here for the day. Suffice it to say, you could take our coverage, overlay it with the half-ice overload diagram in a coaching book and it would match 1-1. It did directly lead to goals against (often because Perron, Bennett, Scuderi and, to a much lesser extent, Downie were incapable of playing it), but not in appreciably high numbers. We did not give up a lot of goals late in the season, just scored less with no transition and 1.5 wings playing passable hockey.

In the second half of the season, the Penguins did not have the talent to overcome anything, nor did they overcome anything. That the Rangers series was close instead of a blowout is a feather in Johnston's cap. I'd link Ranger threads from around that time where posters were angry with AV for not being able to get the puck through Johnston's neutral zone (which is the one thing he did that was not conventional), but I'm out of time.

Idea that there's some rabbit Johnston could have (let alone should have) pulled out of his hat that simultaneously nullifies his roster's disadvantages in size and skating on the wing and in every way on defense is not realistic. You already admitted as much--there's nothing Johnston could have done that would have worked with what he had available.

Pens were still playing a modified low collapse until the California trip which was in the very beginning of March. I did not claim that goals against were higher; I claimed that there were more goals directly due to system failures.

So far, you've addressed the defensive zone system and transition to defense in the neutral zone. However, the initial criticism was of the breakout and transition to offense which either you don't seem to think was an issue or seem to think was an issue caused by injuries or you don't want to address.

Johnston implemented a breakout and offensive transition system that was ill-fitting and easily scouted and prepared for. In the months of October and Novement, that system was ineffective and looked terrible. Talent on defense and offense was able to compensate for the flaws in those specific systems to a certain point. Johnston was unable to adapt the breakout and offensive transition to the NHL before injuries became prohibitive and talent couldn't overcome the flaws.

 

[steveg]

If advanced stats are good for anything, it's driving the point home that players who are good at ES are also going to be at least decent on the PK. These PK specialists almost always bring little at ES.

Agreed. I think PK can be coached; not that higher-IQ players who are well coached on the PK won't PK better than lower-IQ players who are similarly coached, but I do see it as something that can largely be "taught" (unlike other parts of the game, which can't be taught to any great degree due to a level of natural talent being a prerequisite).

 

[mpp9]

Agreed. I think PK can be coached; not that higher-IQ players who are well coached on the PK won't PK better than lower-IQ players who are similarly coached, but I do see it as something that can largely be "taught" (unlike other parts of the game, which can't be taught to any great degree due to a level of natural talent being a prerequisite).

Yeah, hockey IQ definitely has to do with it. Sutter always has his stick in the right position. There's a reason why he's constantly getting shorthanded chances aside from his speed.

But as long as you can skate and are coachable, you can eat up some shifts on the PK. I'm fine if they want to keep Sutter around to have a guy they can lean on in that situation, but there's no need to bring guys in just for that role in addition.

 

[Riptide]

I don't think it's a given that we make the playoffs. We're in a murderer's row division. Points will come easier to the #4 team in the Atlantic than they will to the #5 team in the Patrick division.

But if we miss, it won't be due to Johnston. Frankly, if we have a poor October, I have a strong belief that Jacques Martin will be the coach in November. Johnston's a lame duck. He's in the second year of a two year deal with a team option for a third and he wasn't the guy we wanted in the first place. To say he's on a short leash would be an understatement (even though I don't think any negative outcomes last season had anything at all to do with him).

I honestly do not think we'll have an issue making the playoffs. Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang, MAF, etc is enough skill to hide our deficiencies to make the playoffs. We won't coast our way in, but neither do I expect to see us battling it out until the final game of the season to secure a spot.

Honestly... I don't think Martin would do a bad job here. I mean I would have loved Babcock, but could easily handle Martin.