Just an update here.
The Pens expected record this year is 26W-13L and their actual record is 19W-19L.
They have lost 12 times when they "deserved" to win, and won only 5 times when they "deserved" to lose.
Here's a snapshot of our last 9 games for reference.
Opponent | Date | Expected Win % | Outcome |
Minnesota | 12/18/2023 | 80% | W |
Carolina | 12/21/2023 | 65% | W |
Ottawa | 12/23/2023 | 67% | L |
NYI | 12/27/2023 | 86% | W |
St Louis | 12/30/2023 | 60% | W |
NYI | 12/31/2023 | 58% | W |
Washington | 1/2/2024 | 87% | L |
Boston | 1/4/2024 | 73% | W |
Buffalo | 1/6/2024 | 79% | L |
Even though I'm sour on the trajectory of the team, I think there's unarguably merit to the point that they're playing well enough, just not getting results.
Yes, too often they look flat for a period or two, but that's not uncommon, especially for teams this long in the tooth.
Do I still think they lack preparedness and that overhauling coaching staff could be the solution? Yes. But I still think the data are useful.