Prospect Info: Prospect Rankings #3

[Ridley Simon]

1) So. Who are the seven Canadian 1999 D who are better than Alexeyev?
2) I have nothing personal with Johansen. Hershey is much better w/o him.
3) Alexeyev > whole Canadian D roster >>>>> Johansen.
4) Are the Hershey fans stat watching as well ? I try to find some logic.

Alexeyev can be better than LuJo....without LuJo sucking balls. Right? It acutally benefits the team if BOTH are good.

Akin to back when Carlson, Alzner, and Orlov were all young and coming thru the ranks. Carlson was arguably the best...but Alzner and Orlov were good too.

I see Alexeyev, Johnasen, and Siegenthaler as the new big 3. Djoos' development (as a late round pick) has been a surprise and a bonus. But the new big 3 are still all good...just on differing developmental curves.

Johansen will need to step it up....but he's only 21. Siegs will be 22 in May. Lucas wont be until Nov. So about half a year apart. Both are just kids. Alexeyev is only 19....so he's got a lot of time to mature.

 

[Silky mitts]

I thought Lujo was less impressive than Alexeyev (by a lot) or Hobbs (by a little) in the preseason, then the people that watch Hershey a lot both had Hobbs ahead of Lujo so I feel good about putting him behind AA, MF (who looked as good as AA in the World Juniors), and Hobbs.

 

[hb12xchamps]

I thought Lujo was less impressive than Alexeyev (by a lot) or Hobbs (by a little) in the preseason, then the people that watch Hershey a lot both had Hobbs ahead of Lujo so I feel good about putting him behind AA, MF (who looked as good as AA in the World Juniors), and Hobbs.

That was more so because that list was based on performances during the current season. Hobbs was playing well while LuJo was out injured so I had Hobbs ahead of both him and Samsonov (who was struggling at the time). If it was just a general list, I'd put LuJo ahead of Hobbs

 

[Holtbyisms]

LuJo is near the worst D in Hershey and all AHL. Alexeyev is near the best D in WHL and WJC20. LuJo never played international hockey and right now is much closer to the ECHL than NHL. Alexeyev will be in NHL next season with Siege who has the same age as LuJo. I am brutal with him, but Pokulok and Finley 1st round draft picks where brutal as well.

I seriously just lol'ed in the middle of a meeting. This is the most false statement in this thread.

 

[maacoshark]

I thought Lujo was less impressive than Alexeyev (by a lot) or Hobbs (by a little) in the preseason, then the people that watch Hershey a lot both had Hobbs ahead of Lujo so I feel good about putting him behind AA, MF (who looked as good as AA in the World Juniors), and Hobbs.

Hobbs might have more potential than Johansen. Hobbs is more physical and is tougher and gas a big shot. Both need to work on their defensive game.

 

[Silky mitts]

That was more so because that list was based on performances during the current season. Hobbs was playing well while LuJo was out injured so I had Hobbs ahead of both him and Samsonov (who was struggling at the time). If it was just a general list, I'd put LuJo ahead of Hobbs

I’d buy him ahead of Hobbs/Clark then but LuJo hasn’t ever shown what AA, Samsonov, Sieg, and MF have the last 3-6 weeks.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Trying to compare LuJo's junior numbers to Alexeyev's is apples and oranges. LuJo played on a stacked team with another really high end 1st round defender who will likely become a more impact NHL star one day(Cal Foote) as his partner along with other 1st round picks on the front end. Alexeyev is one of the primary offensive players on his team and without question the most talented player on his team. Both are tremendous prospects but LuJo is getting the short end of the stick around here. I watch all of Hershey's games and he's easily more NHL style than Siegenthaler by a long shot. They play a different game without question but Siegenthaler was likely one of Hershey's worst players for a long stretch to open the season. Not sure if his demotion after almost making it out of camp messed with his confidence or what but you could count on him for one goal costing turnover per game before his call up. Both will become solid Capitals one day(unless they're traded) but LuJo has top pairing potential while Sieg has 3rd pairing steady written all over him.

Hershey has been bad for two straight years and LuJo managed to throw up 27 points as a rookie in the AHL on an awful team. This year he has 9 in 17 games and has had injury issues. If you try to compare him to Carlson or Alzners path it just doesn't work. Those guys played on Calder Cup caliber/winning teams. They both amassed tons of points because their offense was so high powered. Even if you look at Bowey's first year where he put up 29 points as a rookie...Hershey went to the Calder Cup finals and finished first in the Atlantic so he's not a good comparison either.

tl:dr: LuJo's point totals are irrelevant and he's doing just fine. I'd be shocked if he doesn't push for a spot next year. He's the closet thing we have in this organization that could be a long term steady solution to be a #2 one day paired with Carlson. He will push Kempny to waivers/trade eventually. He plays a pro style game already and did in Kelowna as well and isn't far off from the NHL.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Trying to compare LuJo's junior numbers to Alexeyev's is apples and oranges. LuJo played on a stacked team with another really high end 1st round defender who will likely become a more impact NHL star one day(Cal Foote) as his partner along with other 1st round picks on the front end. Alexeyev is one of the primary offensive players on his team and without question the most talented player on his team. Both are tremendous prospects but LuJo is getting the short end of the stick around here. I watch all of Hershey's games and he's easily more NHL style than Siegenthaler by a long shot. They play a different game without question but Siegenthaler was likely one of Hershey's worst players for a long stretch to open the season. Not sure if his demotion after almost making it out of camp messed with his confidence or what but you could count on him for one goal costing turnover per game before his call up. Both will become solid Capitals one day(unless they're traded) but LuJo has top pairing potential while Sieg has 3rd pairing steady written all over him.

Hershey has been bad for two straight years and LuJo managed to throw up 27 points as a rookie in the AHL on an awful team. This year he has 9 in 17 games and has had injury issues. If you try to compare him to Carlson or Alzners path it just doesn't work. Those guys played on Calder Cup caliber/winning teams. They both amassed tons of points because their offense was so high powered. Even if you look at Bowey's first year where he put up 29 points as a rookie...Hershey went to the Calder Cup finals and finished first in the Atlantic so he's not a good comparison either.

tl:dr: LuJo's point totals are irrelevant and he's doing just fine. I'd be shocked if he doesn't push for a spot next year. He's the closet thing we have in this organization that could be a long term steady solution to be a #2 one day paired with Carlson. He will push Kempny to waivers/trade eventually. He plays a pro style game already and did in Kelowna as well and isn't far off from the NHL.

Good stuff. Really appreciate hearing from the peeps that actually watch these guys on regular basis.

I continue to believe he's got he tools to be an NHL defender someday. Only the injury has him down in my rankings right now.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I seriously just lol'ed in the middle of a meeting. This is the most false statement in this thread.

In another tread I tried to calculate 'Corsi' stats for Hershey players three weeks ago (as of 6 Jan):

Player	POS	GP	5v5 GF%	Grade
Shumakov	F	10	71	A+
Ness	D	31	54	B
Hobbs	D	27	47	C
Gersich	F	25	46	C
Gustafsson	C	20	42	D
Geisser	D	18	42	D
Sgarbossa	C	35	42	D
Megna	C	31	41	D
Siegenthaler	D	14	41	D
Pinho	C	32	40	D
Whitney	F	25	40	D
Mitchell	F	11	40	D
Barber	F	29	40	D
Lewington	D	27	40	D
Kammerer	F	19	38	F
Ikonen	F	24	38	F
Malenstyn	F	33	37	F
Pilon	C	35	36	F
Walker	F	20	36	F
Williams	D	25	35	F
Jonsson-Fjallby	F	16	35	F
O'Brien	F	35	34	F
Sproul	D	24	21	F
Johansen	D	17	20	F
Pyett	D	10	14	F

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Johansen is objectively The worst player in Hershey from this point of view. 20% GF stat is disqualifying for me. No one do as bad, so bad offence/pairing partner etc. can't 'excuse' it.

I like every Cap player. I am sorry if what I say sounds aggressive toward LuJo, it is not my goal.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Again bud you can’t compare Alexeyev to LuJo on the international stage. It just does not work. Different birth years, different countries, and completely different scenarios.

Hershey is much better without him? I guess Hershey should continue to ice ECHL level players like Joey Leach, Cliff Watson and Steve Johnson instead of a former first rounder in his second professional season. Makes absolutely no sense and you have zero data to back it up. You’ve done nothing but avoid my question on if you are stat watching or actually watching the games so I’m going to assume you’re stat watching.

When I speak of Hershey fans not liking Siegenthaler I’m speaking of actual fans at the arena who watched him regularly like I did the past few seasons. So no they were not stat watching they were actually watching the games. He was not playing at the level he is currently playing for Washington. Good for him that he has had success during his call up and I hope he continues to, but you can’t convince me that during his time in Hershey he played well enough to leap frog other D for a call up

I respect your opinion. I have my point of view, it is different. I do not see Johansen in NHL. I will be the first happy if I am wrong.

 

[Ajax1995]

I respect your opinion. I have my point of view, it is different. I do not see Johansen in NHL. I will be the first happy if I am wrong.

But just to confirm you are basing this 100% on stats and stats only correct?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

But just to confirm you are basing this 100% on stats and stats only correct?

Yes. Mostly. I saw some short video of him. That is all.

I watch a lot of hockey games very attentively. It surprise me often how accurate stats are compared to what I saw on the ice and how much more information I can get from stats vs real time ice watching.

 

[Calicaps]

Yes. Mostly. I saw some short video of him. That is all.

I watch a lot of hockey games very attentively. It surprise me often how accurate stats are compared to what I saw on the ice and how much more information I can get from stats vs ice watching.

so I take it you are an Orpik hater then?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

so I take it you are an Orpik hater then?

No. I love 1M$ Orpik 2.0

 

[Calicaps]

No. I love 1M$ Orpik 2.0

stats are only part of what matters. the eye test is real. I love $1M Orpik too and understand why they cut him loose over the summer, but $5M Orpik was critical to the Cup win.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

stats are only part of what matters. the eye test is real. I love $1M Orpik too and understand why they cut him loose over the summer, but $5M Orpik was critical to the Cup win.

Sure, Orpik was fantastic in playoffs. Not many NHL D with 5+M$ could do better. But it is not like he never played at this level.

 

[Calicaps]

Sure, Orpik was fantastic in playoffs. Not many NHL D with 5+M$ could do better. But it is not like he never played at this level.

But lots of folks insisted he was a waste of money and space based solely on stats. Because yeah, his numbers are shit. But there's more to hockey. LuJo might be an Orpik.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

But lots of folks insisted he was a waste of money and space based solely on stats. Because yeah, his numbers are ****. But there's more to hockey. LuJo might be an Orpik.

If LuJo is strong like a rock, unmatched leader and will give 200% he have on the ice. I'am ok. We are not here yet.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

In another tread I tried to calculate 'Corsi' stats for Hershey players three weeks ago (as of 6 Jan) ... .

That's not Corsi. Corsi is shot attempts for and against. The stats in your table are another way of expressing the +/- stat. So your issue with Johansen is that his +/- was bad on a bad team?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

That's not Corsi. Corsi is shot attempts for and against. The stats in your table are another way of expressing the +/- stat. So your issue with Johansen is that his +/- was bad on a bad team?

I wrote 'Corsi' and not Corsi. GF% is NOT the +/- stat. Let me explain. Player A has 2 GF and 8 GA, Player B has 94 GF and 100 GA. Player A and Player B will have the same -6 +/- stat while Player A will end up with 20% GF% and Player B with 48% GF%. Player A will have 19% Corsi and Player B will have 50% Corsi. %GF is in correlation with Corsi (shots -> goals) and not with +/-.

I would like to calculate the true Corsi for Hershey players but I don't have the 5v5 shots for and shots against stats in my possession.

My 'problem' with Johansen is that his %GF, that is very close to his Corsi, is 20% while Everyone is at ~40% or more. It is like everyone in your class need 15 seconds to run 100 meters and you can only do it in 40 seconds. Everyone is 'bad' but you... you are more than simply 'bad' or 'bad in a bad class'.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Chalk me up as being highly skeptical of using 'advanced' stats to indict a player over a 17 game sample size, a stretch where the player's entire team played like trash, using a specific stat that is skewed against players who have played fewer games, with virtually no eye test corroboration.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

I wrote 'Corsi' and not Corsi. GF% is NOT the +/- stat. Let me explain. Player A has 2 GF and 8 GA, Player B has 94 GF and 100 GA. Player A and Player B will have the same -6 +/- stat while Player A will end up with 20% GF% and Player B with 48% GF%.

Yes, but the principle behind the two is still the same. You're holding one particular player responsible for a very small number of events that happened with four other skaters and a goalie on the ice for his team. If his numbers were significantly lower than his teammates' over a much bigger sample, it would suggest a problem. In this case, we're talking about 17 games, and a very small sample of goals for and against -- Johansen essentially is the -6 player with 2GF and 8GA in this example, rather than the 94/100 one.

Why calculate it for this year's tiny sample, rather than last year's full season?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Chalk me up as being highly skeptical of using 'advanced' stats to indict a player over a 17 game sample size, a stretch where the player's entire team played like trash, using a specific stat that is skewed against players who have played fewer games, with virtually no eye test corroboration.

Let's be objective. Being skeptical is not. Give me one example of a non rookie AHL player with 17 games 20% GF% season start into 60% GF% season end, and let us see if I can give you in exchange 10+ examples of the opposite.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Yes, but the principle behind the two is still the same. You're holding one particular player responsible for a very small number of events that happened with four other skaters and a goalie on the ice for his team. If his numbers were significantly lower than his teammates' over a much bigger sample, it would suggest a problem. In this case, we're talking about 17 games, and a very small sample of goals for and against -- Johansen essentially is the -6 player with 2GF and 8GA in this example, rather than the 94/100 one.

Why calculate it for this year's tiny sample, rather than last year's full season?

No it is not.

 

[hb12xchamps]