Projects prevalent in New York Rangers Top 20 prospects

[Hunter Gathers]

McIlrath below Stromwall is just bewildering. It's insane. It makes no sense. Indefensible.

And below Morrison, Tambo, and Kovacs is incredibly silly as well.

 

[eco's bones]

FWIW I think the writer of the article actually is the writer here for another team at HF and may have got this writing job somewhat on consignment. The consensus on McIlrath by a lot of non-Rangers fans is he's a failed picked and Farkas seems to be following that line. The consensus by most Rangers fans is that McIlrath when he got the chance did very well last year---he just didn't play enough. It's not that he doesn't have issues--he's not top 4 material at least yet--it's that the way to ameliorate some of those issues is for him to play more. So........the #10 ranking is a big miss IMO. He should at the least be #5.

The Dylan McIlrath pick by the Rangers in retrospect was not the best one they could have made. Having said that I don't think it's nearly as awful as some people who don't follow the team all that well make it out to be. And it should be kept in mind that the kneecap displacement injury set Dylan's development back for a good year and a half anyway. About halfway through 2014-15 his game up ticked quite a bit--it's still getting better and he's not a finished product. He had a good year last year when he got a chance to play. I'll say it again--most Rangers fans were very happy with how he played.

 

[Bluenote13]

Mcilrath is a good player, but it's taken 6 years to get here. 6 years of Lundqvist's prime. And the 2010 draft was our best draft positions in round 1 and 2 since forever.

 

[Thirty One]

Mcilrath is a good player, but it's taken 6 years to get here. 6 years of Lundqvist's prime. And the 2010 draft was our best draft positions in round 1 and 2 since forever.

The fact that the Rangers ****ed up the 2010 draft shouldn't have any impact on McIlrath's ranking.

 

[eco's bones]

Mcilrath is a good player, but it's taken 6 years to get here. 6 years of Lundqvist's prime. And the 2010 draft was our best draft positions in round 1 and 2 since forever.

He was a project to begin with and a pretty nasty knee injury set him back another couple yeas and those years are usually pretty key to any prospect's development. Without that injury it's a pretty good chance he would have made it sooner.

 

[Bluenote13]

The fact that the Rangers ****ed up the 2010 draft shouldn't have any impact on McIlrath's ranking.

I understand that, but reality is other factors play a roll in these rankings. I'm not a big fan of rankings anyway, you have to take them with a grain of salt. I was commenting more on the pick than the player, same issue I've always had with #10 overall in 2010.

 

[Bluenote13]

He was a project to begin with and a pretty nasty knee injury set him back another couple yeas and those years are usually pretty key to any prospect's development. Without that injury it's a pretty good chance he would have made it sooner.

He was a project to begin with !

Who the **** were we to take on a defensive project when we had just as many or more unknowns upfront with our first top ten selection in half a decade ?? And with an all world goalie in net......

As far as the injury goes, who would have thought this big huge wrecking ball of a player, throwing wreckless hits and getting into nasty brawls would get himself hurt between the draft and when it was time to play at the top level ??

And let's make like the injury never happended, that would have had him one year ahead of his current schedule, maybe.

 

[FLYLine27*]

He was a project to begin with !

Who the **** were we to take on a defensive project when we had just as many or more unknowns upfront with our first top ten selection in half a decade ?? And with an all world goalie in net......

As far as the injury goes, who would have thought this big huge wrecking ball of a player, throwing wreckless hits and getting into nasty brawls would get himself hurt between the draft and when it was time to play at the top level ??

And let's make like the injury never happended, that would have had him one year ahead of his current schedule, maybe.

Is what it is, whether or not we should have taken another player is a moot point at this stage of the game, but we knew once we drafted him he would be a project but if he panned out, then we would have a very good bruising defenseman that we have missed since the days of Jeffrey B.

Unfortunately, the bruising defenseman usually only stay in their prime for about 5 years before they sharply decline do to injuries(of course there are exceptions, usually star players). Hopefully we will be a contender while he is still in those prime years (when he gets there).

 

[Bluenote13]

Is what it is, whether or not we should have taken another player is a moot point at this stage of the game, but we knew once we drafted him he would be a project but if he panned out, then we would have a very good bruising defenseman that we have missed since the days of Jeffrey B.

Unfortunately, the bruising defenseman usually only stay in their prime for about 5 years before they sharply decline do to injuries(of course there are exceptions, usually star players). Hopefully we will be a contender while he is still in those prime years (when he gets there).

yeah I agree it's absolutely a moot point to discuss taking him at number 10. Being a moot point we should be able to discuss the pick not as only a draft pick, but also as a reference point regarding the decisions that are to be made in the future by the guys who made that pick in the first place.

It's still no coincidence Gorton helped draft then trade for Mcquaid, then do the same in 2010 and see DM progress into a similar player and at almost the same rate of progression.

 

[darko]

Mcilrath is a good player, but it's taken 6 years to get here. 6 years of Lundqvist's prime. And the 2010 draft was our best draft positions in round 1 and 2 since forever.

So the fact that he took 6 years to develop during Hank's prime years is why he should be ranked so low? He's a better player than majority on that list.

 

[Irishguy42]

Mcilrath is a good player, but it's taken 6 years to get here. 6 years of Lundqvist's prime. And the 2010 draft was our best draft positions in round 1 and 2 since forever.

It took 6 years due to injuries

 

[darko]

It took 6 years due to injuries

I don't think it matters how long it took.

We are not ranking prospects on how long it took them to develop.

 

[Irishguy42]

I don't think it matters how long it took.

We are not ranking prospects on how long it took them to develop.

I know. I'm just saying that if you bring up the develop time, it's right to bring up his injuries.

 

[Ghost of jas]

There are players on that list that might never play in the NHL ranked ahead of McIlrath, a player who could be on the Rangers' 2nd defensive pairing this year. It's a bad ranking. Skjei and Buch are both ahead of him, and I understand ranking Shesty that high. But, until Graves actually shows he can play on the NHL, McIlrath is #4 at worst.

 

[darko]

I know. I'm just saying that if you bring up the develop time, it's right to bring up his injuries.

I was agreeing with you but after re-reading my reply I realize it didn't sound like it.

 

[darko]

There are players on that list that might never play in the NHL ranked ahead of McIlrath, a player who could be on the Rangers' 2nd defensive pairing this year. It's a bad ranking. Skjei and Buch are both ahead of him, and I understand ranking Shesty that high. But, until Graves actually shows he can play on the NHL, McIlrath is #4 at worst.

I'd have McIlrath above Skjei but that may change very soon. I get Shesty hype.

Like you said Buch/Shesty/Skjei are the only ones who could/should be ranked above him. Stromwall? I don't even know what to say.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'd have McIlrath above Skjei but that may change very soon. I get Shesty hype.

Like you said Buch/Shesty/Skjei are the only ones who could/should be ranked above him. Stromwall? I don't even know what to say.

How do you have McIlrath above Skjei? I think you'd agree that Skjei has a higher ceiling, so the argument for McIlrath would have to be that he's much farther ahead of Skjei, and I don't think you can say that. Skjei deserved a place over McIlrath in the lineup during the playoffs because he was playing better hockey. Skjei's also two years younger.

 

[darko]

How do you have McIlrath above Skjei? I think you'd agree that Skjei has a higher ceiling, so the argument for McIlrath would have to be that he's much farther ahead of Skjei, and I don't think you can say that. Skjei deserved a place over McIlrath in the lineup during the playoffs because he was playing better hockey. Skjei's also two years younger.

McIlrath is more established in NHL. Skjei does have higher upside and is younger.

I'm not fussed which way they are ranked.

 

[Hi ImHFNYR]

McIlrath below Stromwall is just bewildering. It's insane. It makes no sense. Indefensible.

And below Morrison, Tambo, and Kovacs is incredibly silly as well.

Jesus whoa...I don't see it as a big deal at all considering these rankings are super arbitrary and based partly on untapped potential which often gives a nod to younger guys

 

[NickyFotiu]

The irony to me about Dylan being ranked so low is that I believe some Ranger fans actually underrate his offense. I was happily surprised to see Dylan show some real offensive skills. I liked when he pinched in. I wanted him to shoot that big slap shot more and more. He did show some good vision on some long passes. If Dylan is ever given legit playing time I would not be shocked if he scores 8-10 goals in a season at some point.

 

[kovazub94]

Besides McIlrath this writer must know something about this new Swede that is unknown to the most of us here to rank him so high ahead of more known quantities. Also how Bernhardt made it ahead of Fogarty is also puzzling.

 

[NickyFotiu]

It took 6 years due to injuries

There are guys that never make it. 23 is not so old for a D man to make it.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Hey guys,

Let me at least show myself here, as I'll be the new New York (not a Futurama reference) writer here until I'm ousted by you guys by popular vote . Obviously, I have some big shoes to fill with Leslie moving on and I hope I can bring just some of the insight that she brought all this time. I had been covering the Dallas Stars here for the last eight or so years and when I saw the Rangers become available I jumped at the opportunity.

I already see lots of great feedback here which I'm happy to see.

Let me just take you through the process briefly (maybe not so briefly) for me...

First, I put eyes on everyone. If for some reason I can't because they play in Kazakhstan Jrs U18 league or something, I find people that have seen them and I pick their brain or ask for their video on him. So, that created the delay between me taking the beat and getting this top 20 posted. I watched film on everyone, hours on some. I needed to get familiar with them and I needed to lay the foundation in the flagship article going forward. Pretty much every second paragraph on these guys is a brief description of where their game is right now, so that there's no misinterpretation that I "stat grabbed" and moved guys accordingly.

My inexact science on this: I rank on the premise of, what I refer to as, "likely potential" - I rarely will go by "highest ceiling", which does happen on this site. Meaning, that, in theory, Player X could be more than just top six forward in the AHL, but I just don't see it happening in a likely course of events. I factor proximity to some degree, but really "likely potential" on a list of prospects makes the most sense to me. Some may disagree, and that's well within the realm of reality as well...

So the biggest indictment here is Dylan McIlrath. Candidly, I struggle with these guys that should have been NHL regulars already. I press internally to have guys graduated before they even hit the prescribed graduation hurdles that HF puts out. I did it in Dallas and I hope to make the same pushes here when I can. McIlrath is an NHLer, he is not a prospect. You guys all know what he brings because you watch the Rangers play. Players that play for the Rangers aren't prospects for me. Obviously, Alain Vigneault disagrees and therefore, I have to put him on the list.

Because of how I graded him, I think he's only going to be a third pairing talent in this league. That is how I think it shakes out. I just don't know about the puck skills and the lateral mobility to be a regular, true, second pairing guy in this league. And it's not because I think he's a bust, I even mentioned in the article (unless it was edited out) that let's ignore the hoopla and the controversy and stop comparing him to Cam Fowler and all that...and let's look at the season he had. I think he was just fine. But I also think he is just...fine. He doesn't strike me as exemplary. So, mathematically, I'm kind of stuck because I graded other players to have better "likely potential" than McIlrath. But the problem I run into is, if I'm required to put "sure things" first and everything else second...McIlrath becomes #1 or so. He's the only sure-fire NHLer really on the list. And even if I soften that logic leap a little, then he's not really a top 5 prospect for me. I do think Graves has higher upside and it's a list of prospects ranked on upside. Whether he makes the NHL or not is a matter for the courts, but my first order of sorting is "likely potential" and then I mess around a little bit from there...

So, that's my best explanation of why an NHL regular is below an undrafted free agent signing in Malte Stromwall. It would have been easier to go in there and slaughter McIlrath for having two points or whatever...but I think I gave him a pretty fair shake (maybe not?)...could he have gone higher? Definitely. Could he be top-5? Definitely. It just didn't fit in my personal metric for ranking. You're not wrong for sliding McIlrath to 8, or 6, or 3 or whatever. I can't place regular NHLers, I don't know how to do it. Nine years here and I can't figure it out still. So, for that I apologize.

For those that are into this kind of thing...#21 was Ryan Mantha. But honestly, this list trails off considerably towards the end. A lot of guys at the bottom are close. Nanne gets a nod for having the most skill out of anyone below Jensen I guess. Maybe exception to Bernhardt who can really shoot...

I'll be around, I'm happy to chat. Happy to vaguely justify my decisions. And just in general, happy to talk about hockey in general. I am an ice hockey coach at the collegiate level which sometimes leaks into my evaluations of players, hopefully not for the worst. Really looking forward to covering one of the league's premier teams and to interacting with a great community of fans here.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Hey guys,

Let me at least show myself here, as I'll be the new New York (not a Futurama reference) writer here until I'm ousted by you guys by popular vote . Obviously, I have some big shoes to fill with Leslie moving on and I hope I can bring just some of the insight that she brought all this time. I had been covering the Dallas Stars here for the last eight or so years and when I saw the Rangers become available I jumped at the opportunity.

I already see lots of great feedback here which I'm happy to see.

Let me just take you through the process briefly (maybe not so briefly) for me...

First, I put eyes on everyone. If for some reason I can't because they play in Kazakhstan Jrs U18 league or something, I find people that have seen them and I pick their brain or ask for their video on him. So, that created the delay between me taking the beat and getting this top 20 posted. I watched film on everyone, hours on some. I needed to get familiar with them and I needed to lay the foundation in the flagship article going forward. Pretty much every second paragraph on these guys is a brief description of where their game is right now, so that there's no misinterpretation that I "stat grabbed" and moved guys accordingly.

My inexact science on this: I rank on the premise of, what I refer to as, "likely potential" - I rarely will go by "highest ceiling", which does happen on this site. Meaning, that, in theory, Player X could be more than just top six forward in the AHL, but I just don't see it happening in a likely course of events. I factor proximity to some degree, but really "likely potential" on a list of prospects makes the most sense to me. Some may disagree, and that's well within the realm of reality as well...

So the biggest indictment here is Dylan McIlrath. Candidly, I struggle with these guys that should have been NHL regulars already. I press internally to have guys graduated before they even hit the prescribed graduation hurdles that HF puts out. I did it in Dallas and I hope to make the same pushes here when I can. McIlrath is an NHLer, he is not a prospect. You guys all know what he brings because you watch the Rangers play. Players that play for the Rangers aren't prospects for me. Obviously, Alain Vigneault disagrees and therefore, I have to put him on the list.

Because of how I graded him, I think he's only going to be a third pairing talent in this league. That is how I think it shakes out. I just don't know about the puck skills and the lateral mobility to be a regular, true, second pairing guy in this league. And it's not because I think he's a bust, I even mentioned in the article (unless it was edited out) that let's ignore the hoopla and the controversy and stop comparing him to Cam Fowler and all that...and let's look at the season he had. I think he was just fine. But I also think he is just...fine. He doesn't strike me as exemplary. So, mathematically, I'm kind of stuck because I graded other players to have better "likely potential" than McIlrath. But the problem I run into is, if I'm required to put "sure things" first and everything else second...McIlrath becomes #1 or so. He's the only sure-fire NHLer really on the list. And even if I soften that logic leap a little, then he's not really a top 5 prospect for me. I do think Graves has higher upside and it's a list of prospects ranked on upside. Whether he makes the NHL or not is a matter for the courts, but my first order of sorting is "likely potential" and then I mess around a little bit from there...

So, that's my best explanation of why an NHL regular is below an undrafted free agent signing in Malte Stromwall. It would have been easier to go in there and slaughter McIlrath for having two points or whatever...but I think I gave him a pretty fair shake (maybe not?)...could he have gone higher? Definitely. Could he be top-5? Definitely. It just didn't fit in my personal metric for ranking. You're not wrong for sliding McIlrath to 8, or 6, or 3 or whatever. I can't place regular NHLers, I don't know how to do it. Nine years here and I can't figure it out still. So, for that I apologize.

For those that are into this kind of thing...#21 was Ryan Mantha. But honestly, this list trails off considerably towards the end. A lot of guys at the bottom are close. Nanne gets a nod for having the most skill out of anyone below Jensen I guess. Maybe exception to Bernhardt who can really shoot...

I'll be around, I'm happy to chat. Happy to vaguely justify my decisions. And just in general, happy to talk about hockey in general. I am an ice hockey coach at the collegiate level which sometimes leaks into my evaluations of players, hopefully not for the worst. Really looking forward to covering one of the league's premier teams and to interacting with a great community of fans here.

I appreciate your explanation. I think people that did not see Dylan play regularly and know about the AV context probably have a different mindset than the Rangers fans that watched Dylan play. When we had 2 defensemen injured Dylan stepped in and played very well in 15 of 17 games. There were games he was one of our best defensemen but then would be inexplicably benched by AV to get Boyle/Girardi in the lineup. What might surprise some non Rangers fans is that Dylan actually showed some glimpses of good offensive ability as well. Next season will be a major turning point for Dylan. During that 17 game stint Dylan showed that if put in the right situation he can play in the top 4. Most Ranger fans were disappointed in how Dylan was handled last season.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Yeah, I can't explain how or why AV did what he did with Dylan. I will say that you guys aren't alone in that...Dan Bylsma with Simon Despres is another recent example that came to mind. Coaches go with veteran players because sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't...that's old school thinking maybe, but that's still the deal almost across the board.

Here's the only silver lining I can offer...McIlrath is going to graduate on merit next season...