Projected stats for all forwards with "normal" first line usage over 82 games.

[LaP]

There's been a lot of talk lately about the lack of goals scored by Montréal. Some people say it's a 3rd line problem. Others say it's DD. People are pointing fingers left and right. So for fun i decided using Excel to calculate how much points every forwards would have if they would play 17 minutes at ES every games at 3 minutes on the PP every games. With such ice time a legit first line player should have over 60 points (ideally close to 70). So here's the result :


Max Pacioretty 75
Alex Galchenyuk 64
Tomas Plekanec 64
David Desharnais 57
Brendan Gallagher 55
Jiri Sekac 52
Dale Weise 50
Lars Eller 49
Sven Andrighetto 44
PA Parenteau 42
Michael Bournival 30
Brandon Prust 27
Jacob De La Rose 13
Christian Thomas 10
Manny Malhotra 3


So discuss

Click to read more...

 

[ClasslessGuy]

You'll have to explain the calculation on this one because I fail to see how you calculated the 3 min PP / pts probability + the impact of the players on the same line on the point total.

PS. not being negative I really want to know how you calculated

 

[LaP]

Well i calculated how many points the guys are doing for every 3 minutes played on the PP.

Then i calculated how many points the guys are doing for every 17 minutes played at ES.

Added both numbers which gives how many points the guys are doing for every 17 minutes played at ES + every 3 minutes played on the PP (one game of normal first line usage).

Multiplied that by 82.

My calculation might be a fail in which case feel free to delete.

 

[Lebowski]

There's been a lot of talk lately about the lack of goals scored by Montréal. Some people say it's a 3rd line problem. Others say it's DD. People are pointing fingers left and right. So for fun i decided using Excel to calculate how much points every forwards would have if they would play 17 minutes at ES every games at 3 minutes on the PP every games. With such ice time a legit first line player should have over 60 points (ideally close to 70). So here's the result :


Max Pacioretty 75
Alex Galchenyuk 64
Tomas Plekanec 64
David Desharnais 57
Brendan Gallagher 55
Jiri Sekac 52
Dale Weise 50
Lars Eller 49
Sven Andrighetto 44
PA Parenteau 42
Michael Bournival 30
Brandon Prust 27
Jacob De La Rose 13
Christian Thomas 10
Manny Malhotra 3


So discuss

Unless you took into account the fact linemates have an effect over the production of a 1st liner, namely playing with Pacioretty, this doesn't tell us much other than pro rated numbers of their production in their current position to produce, or position that makes it hard to produce due to linemates, quality of competition, zone starts and whatnot.

 

[Canadienna]

Doesn't take into account who they are playing with but still interesting regardless. Nice job

 

[ClasslessGuy]

Well i calculated how many points the guys are doing for every 3 minutes played on the PP.

Then i calculated how many points the guys are doing for every 17 minutes played at ES.

Added both numbers which gives how many points the guys are doing for every 17 minutes played at ES + every 3 minutes played on the PP (one game of normal first line usage).

Multiplied that by 82.

My calculation might be a fail in which case feel free to delete.

Well it's not a fail but it's is a point average with their normal linemates in a 21 min average

 

[LaP]

Unless you took into account the fact linemates have an effect over the production of a 1st liner, n

I can't take that into account

I did it just for fun.

 

[Belial]

This shows us really good how Lars and Jiri even though playing tough minutes every night are still managing to produce at a respectable pace for the TOI they get.

 

[macavoy]

Great job LaP. I've thought about doing something similar but I don't have a computer.

 

[DAChampion]

Damn, Weise !

 

[Miller Time]

There's been a lot of talk lately about the lack of goals scored by Montréal. Some people say it's a 3rd line problem. Others say it's DD. People are pointing fingers left and right. So for fun i decided using Excel to calculate how much points every forwards would have if they would play 17 minutes at ES every games at 3 minutes on the PP every games. With such ice time a legit first line player should have over 60 points (ideally close to 70). So here's the result :


Max Pacioretty 75
Alex Galchenyuk 64
Tomas Plekanec 64
David Desharnais 57
Brendan Gallagher 55
Jiri Sekac 52
Dale Weise 50
Lars Eller 49
Sven Andrighetto 44
PA Parenteau 42
Michael Bournival 30
Brandon Prust 27
Jacob De La Rose 13
Christian Thomas 10
Manny Malhotra 3


So discuss

as others pointed out, all this does is show the pro-rated production of each player... doesn't provide any real narrative about the effectiveness of the players, since linemates, ice time, quality of competition and zone starts aren't factored in (among other relevant indicators).

it is interesting to note how productive Sekac is, despite the regular benchings and commentary from the HC that reveals his lack of confidence in the player.

 

[smirob]

Very interesting....

Given the amount of line-mixing MT has done, can we figure out the average point totals based on their on-ice time with Max?? I'm not sure where to find these stats, however if Plekanec for example got more points when paired with Max we should use his Points/60 for those games exclusively?

Obviously not everyone has played on Max's line.

We all agree playing with Max inflates everyone's stats, so taking this as the basepoint might be the true test of '1st line production'?

Well done nonetheless.

 

[LaP]

it is interesting to note how productive Sekac is, despite the regular benchings and commentary from the HC that reveals his lack of confidence in the player.

Yup with the same ice time (ES+PP) over 82 games Sekac would have 2 points more than Weise despite playing mostly with 3rd line players (not with Patch ).

Also interesting to see that Weise would have only 7 points less than DD while playing with the same players as him for the most part. We can all agree that Weise doesn't have the skills of a real top 6 so surprising to see him so close to DD. Maybe it shows how much Patch has an influence over other players stats. Dunno ...

 

[macavoy]

LaP,

Can you do us a favor. Since you already have the spreadsheet with the formulas set up. Can you plug in last years stats to see what the production of our players over a whole season would look like.

I'm interested because its a bigger sample size.

 

[Michelangelo]

This is so flawed, logically and statistically speaking.

Leveling the field in terms of ice time seen is clearly a start, but quality of competition, quality of linemates, o-zone starts are certainly not being analyzed at the same level for every player.

Playing 20 mins with Pacioretty while starting in the offensive zone 65% of the time =/= playing 20 minutes with Prust starting in o-zone 30% of the time.

It's a good start though.

Michelangelo

 

[smirob]

This is so flawed, logically and statistically speaking.

Leveling the field in terms of ice time seen is clearly a start, but quality of competition, quality of linemates, o-zone starts are certainly not being analyzed at the same level for every player.

Playing 20 mins with Pacioretty while starting in the offensive zone 65% of the time =/= playing 20 minutes with Prust starting in o-zone 30% of the time.

It's a good start though.

Michelangelo

That's why factoring in points while paired with Max (who is probably our only true lock on 1st line) might be interesting to see.

 

[LaP]

LaP,

Can you do us a favor. Since you already have the spreadsheet with the formulas set up. Can you plug in last years stats to see what the production of our players over a whole season would look like.

I'm interested because its a bigger sample size.

Well sadly i'm at home now (i did that in my break) so don't have the spreadsheet anymore and not feeling like re-doing all that lol

 

[macavoy]

This is so flawed, logically and statistically speaking.

Leveling the field in terms of ice time seen is clearly a start, but quality of competition, quality of linemates, o-zone starts are certainly not being analyzed at the same level for every player.

Playing 20 mins with Pacioretty while starting in the offensive zone 65% of the time =/= playing 20 minutes with Prust starting in o-zone 30% of the time.

It's a good start though.

Michelangelo

It's not flawed. Its exactly what it is. No need to bash someone's solid work because its not what YOU want. It is precisely what he says it is.

 

[habsterr]

So Galchenyuk and Plekanec should be our #1/2 at center and Desharnais as 3rd line center?

 

[Winter Eclipse]

It's not flawed. Its exactly what it is. No need to bash someone's solid work because its not what YOU want. It is precisely what he says it is.

It doesn't factor in the effect of linemates.

It treats the guy that plays 1:30 on the PP and the guy that gets the last :20 seconds as equal.

It doesn't account for zone starts.


It's an interesting discussion piece, but to argue it's a statistically rigorous study would be laughable, if not for your blatantly transparent bias.

 

[Habsrule]

I will give you a solid A for your effort.

Obviously your formula has some flaws but I think just about all advanced stats have flaws.

I for one am not much of an advanced stats guy but I appreciate your hard work in creating a formula that the results look half decent. And to those of you who are mocking this I challenge you to create a formula and are willing to post them.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

This is so flawed, logically and statistically speaking.

Leveling the field in terms of ice time seen is clearly a start, but quality of competition, quality of linemates, o-zone starts are certainly not being analyzed at the same level for every player.

Playing 20 mins with Pacioretty while starting in the offensive zone 65% of the time =/= playing 20 minutes with Prust starting in o-zone 30% of the time.

It's a good start though.

Michelangelo

There's too many variables to consider to do this accurately. OP was just having fun, not much else to it.

 

[lou4gehrig]

Or I can think like normal human being and sit back and make the following analysis:

First question. Who is my best forward? Okay that's MaxPac.
Next question. Which player has the skills to match his qualities such as his speed and scoring ability? Okay that's Galchenyuk so he can play with him.
Next question. Who is my next best forward? Okay that's Plek a good all-around player. He can be the second line center.
Next question. WHo is the next best forward? How about Gallagher? He's a RW so he can play on the first open RW spot.
Next question. Who is the next best forward? How about Eller / Sekac or DD? Okay. Well Sekac can go on the second line RW and Eller to the second line wing or third line center. And DD can go to one of the wings.

So just doing that simply analysis by a complete layman with no hockey coaching ability like myself I'd arrive at the following:
MaxPac-Galchenyuk-Gallagher
Eller/DD-Plek-Sekac
DD/Eller-DLR-xxx

Now that may or may not be perfect, but I bet the majority of fans in this forum would chose those lines over MT's lines all day and night.

 

[Devourers]

This basically shows how every player would produce when they and their current linemates would be given 1st line minutes roughly. Of course it isn't a perfect science but it is a fun idea.

 

[Prendan Brust]

Great job LaP. I've thought about doing something similar but I don't have a computer.

Off topic but this hit me when I read this post :

Ten years ago, this post wouldn't have made any sense.