Preferred Outcome for the Pens Pick

[Gecklund]

How would anyone possibly know that? Nobody can even agree who should be 2-10. Nobody can figure out whether Yakemchuk is 3 or 23. Jiricek 12 or 29. Eiserman 5 or 15. Iginla 5 or 15. And that's just at the draft, let alone in 5 years. I can't tell if this is satire, so sorry if I'm misinterpreting.

This site is built with tooth paste and prayers. It refreshed and deleted my post so trying to sum it up quickly before it happens again.

Most of the actual experts have the same 13 guys up top. After them there’s a clear drop in potential. Could they out play their potential? Yep. Could there be a Tyler Boucher pick? Yep. But I think expecting either of those things is a weird way to let ourselves down. A guy like Jiricek, Greentree, Sennecke just isn’t the same level as a guy like Yakemchuk, Eiserman, Iginla. That’s my top of the next tier, bottom of the first tier.

Obviously a lot of this is based on personal expectations and opinions but that’s all any of us including NHL teams have.

 

[coooldude]

This site is built with tooth paste and prayers. It refreshed and deleted my post so trying to sum it up quickly before it happens again.

Most of the actual experts have the same 13 guys up top. After them there’s a clear drop in potential.

I get it, but also, it's not 100% universally true that every expert has the exact same top 13 to this point. We still have 2 months. Sennecke is a riser, Iginla may not be as high, Eiserman may keep falling below 13. Even in the Jan-Apr rankings it's not true that everyone is agreed on the top 13 of Mack, Lev/Dickinson/Silayev/Buium/Parekh/Yak, Demidov/Catton/Iggy/Lindstrom, Eiserman/Helenius.

McKenzie at midseason (known to be in with scouts): Connelly is at 11, Iginla 16. Will they equalize so that the "top 13" above is accurate? we'll see.

Pronman this week (also known to be in with scouts): 12-16 goes Sennecke, Jiricek, Eiserman, Iginla.

Who knows if Ferrari is full of shit or what, but he has MBN at 7, Greentree at 9, Freij at 8. Probably full of shit.

Not a huge difference, but not 100% cut and dry. And there's still time for more movement.

 

[coooldude]

Just to add to my last point, NHL Central Scouting has Connelly above Dickinson and Catton, Hage above Yakemchuk and Eiserman.

 

[Barrie22]

This site is built with tooth paste and prayers. It refreshed and deleted my post so trying to sum it up quickly before it happens again.

Most of the actual experts have the same 13 guys up top. After them there’s a clear drop in potential. Could they out play their potential? Yep. Could there be a Tyler Boucher pick? Yep. But I think expecting either of those things is a weird way to let ourselves down. A guy like Jiricek, Greentree, Sennecke just isn’t the same level as a guy like Yakemchuk, Eiserman, Iginla. That’s my top of the next tier, bottom of the first tier.

Obviously a lot of this is based on personal expectations and opinions but that’s all any of us including NHL teams have.

Just checked 3 different rankings and the top 13 changes in each of them. Some lists have Iginla going top 10 and others have him going after 15. Some have jiricek going top 10 others have him outside of the top 15.

There is zero consenses after the top pick. When the people that are paid to make these lists can't decide on who should be going where, then nobody here can say without a doubt that picking 14th instead of 13th is a major drastic loss of talent.

 

[Gecklund]

get it, but also, it's not 100% universally true that every expert has the exact same top 13 to this point. We still have 2 months. Sennecke is a riser, Iginla may not be as high, Eiserman may keep falling below 13. Even in the Jan-Apr rankings it's not true that everyone is agreed on the top 13 of Mack, Lev/Dickinson/Silayev/Buium/Parekh/Yak, Demidov/Catton/Iggy/Lindstrom, Eiserman/Helenius.

McKenzie at midseason (known to be in with scouts): Connelly is at 11, Iginla 16. Will they equalize so that the "top 13" above is accurate? we'll see.

Pronman this week (also known to be in with scouts): 12-16 goes Sennecke, Jiricek, Eiserman, Iginla.

Who knows if Ferrari is full of shit or what, but he has MBN at 7, Greentree at 9, Freij at 8. Probably full of shit.

Not a huge difference, but not 100% cut and dry. And there's still time for more movement.

Ferrari is full of shit. Love Freij but no way he’s top 10.

You’re right. Lack of coffee and such but it’s hard to get over character concerns with Connelly, ceiling of Hage, Sennecke is fine but again would be very unhappy leaving pick 14 with one of those.

Just to add to my last point, NHL Central Scouting has Connelly above Dickinson and Catton, Hage above Yakemchuk and Eiserman.

Again character concerns on Connelly. Yakemchuk and Eiserman are definitely the two lowest on my list in that tier.

Just checked 3 different rankings and the top 13 changes in each of them. Some lists have Iginla going top 10 and others have him going after 15. Some have jiricek going top 10 others have him outside of the top 15.

There is zero consenses after the top pick. When the people that are paid to make these lists can't decide on who should be going where, then nobody here can say without a doubt that picking 14th instead of 13th is a major drastic loss of talent.

Oh I can absolutely say without a doubt that it’s a major loss of talent. It’s my opinion. You can choose to believe it or not.

 

[Barrie22]

Ferrari is full of shit. Love Freij but no way he’s top 10.

You’re right. Lack of coffee and such but it’s hard to get over character concerns with Connelly, ceiling of Hage, Sennecke is fine but again would be very unhappy leaving pick 14 with one of those.

Again character concerns on Connelly. Yakemchuk and Eiserman are definitely the two lowest on my list in that tier.

Oh I can absolutely say without a doubt that it’s a major loss of talent. It’s my opinion. You can choose to believe it or not.

So you like to have opinions based on zero evidence. That makes it easier to know to ignore your opinions on anything then.

 

[coooldude]

Ferrari is full of shit. Love Freij but no way he’s top 10.

You’re right. Lack of coffee and such but it’s hard to get over character concerns with Connelly, ceiling of Hage, Sennecke is fine but again would be very unhappy leaving pick 14 with one of those.

Again character concerns on Connelly. Yakemchuk and Eiserman are definitely the two lowest on my list in that tier.

Oh I can absolutely say without a doubt that it’s a major loss of talent. It’s my opinion. You can choose to believe it or not.

Yep, everyone is entitled to their opinion, I just challenge opinions like "without a doubt" in areas where there is a lot of doubt, even doubt that you yourself pointed out about drafts and future outcomes and current evaluations. My belief is that there is not a definite and verifiable and universally agreed dropoff from 13 to 14. You said "experts have the same top 13" and I think that's pretty clearly not true. You seem to have a clear top 13, that's fine.

I don't have a personal ranking of 13 or even #2 because what the hell do I know? What the hell do any of us know, therefore, I am always surprised at strong opinions.

 

[Gecklund]

So you like to have opinions based on zero evidence. That makes it easier to know to ignore your opinions on anything then.

I mean you’ve been doing that years so are you saying people should ignore your opinions?

Yep, everyone is entitled to their opinion, I just challenge opinions like "without a doubt" in areas where there is a lot of doubt, even doubt that you yourself pointed out about drafts and future outcomes and current evaluations. My belief is that there is not a definite and verifiable and universally agreed dropoff from 13 to 14. You said "experts have the same top 13" and I think that's pretty clearly not true. You seem to have a clear top 13, that's fine.

I don't have a personal ranking of 13 or even #2 because what the hell do I know? What the hell do any of us know, therefore, I am always surprised at strong opinions.

reason I have strong opinions is because I’ve been watching these guys (except Jiricek and Lindstrom cause they don’t play ). I have had a pretty good track record when it comes to prospects that turn into NHLers. My top guys where sharks first pick was in previous drafts were Mateychuk, Peterka, Barzal, Pasta, Mantha granted couple misses (Veleno (over Merkley so not really a miss) and Teravainen (over Hertl))

Obviously you don’t know these personalities as well as teams and you don’t know their situations as well as teams but you can know a whole damn lot by just paying attention to them.

Like basically all this to say I watch these guys and to imply that having strong opinions is wrong is just a weird stance.

 

[Hodge]

If you seriously believe the actual draft board will fall identically to some imagined consensus based on what a bunch of internet scouts think, I have no choice but to conclude you bash your head in with a hammer after the first round every year and suffer total memory loss of what actually went down vs. pre-draft rankings.

 

[coooldude]

Like basically all this to say I watch these guys and to imply that having strong opinions is wrong is just a weird stance.

I'm saying your opinions are fine. I don't think it's necessary to say that I'm weird for thinking your strong opinions aren't as important to me as the factually differing, on-the-record opinions of professionals, and I'm still surprised that hobbyists think they could possibly have better opinions than the market but be my guest.

And lastly, I don't think it's weird to balk when you responded to my first post by saying "the drop off is clear at 13" and nothing more. I think we've proven that's not true even if you have a strong opinion that it is.

Otherwise, opinion on.

 

[Lebanezer]

This site is built with tooth paste and prayers. It refreshed and deleted my post so trying to sum it up quickly before it happens again.

Most of the actual experts have the same 13 guys up top. After them there’s a clear drop in potential. Could they out play their potential? Yep. Could there be a Tyler Boucher pick? Yep. But I think expecting either of those things is a weird way to let ourselves down. A guy like Jiricek, Greentree, Sennecke just isn’t the same level as a guy like Yakemchuk, Eiserman, Iginla. That’s my top of the next tier, bottom of the first tier.

Obviously a lot of this is based on personal expectations and opinions but that’s all any of us including NHL teams have.

Can’t afford toothpaste.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Someone from the top-13 will be there at 14. There isn’t such a clear cut tier as there was in 2021, where there was a gigantic tier drop after 9 that resulted in the Sens taking Tyler Boucher 10th.

 

[landshark]

Can’t afford toothpaste.

Baking soda?

 

[Le Rosbeef]

14 is an excellent pick. People need to relax - we were told we couldn't GIVE Karlsson away.

I'd have taken 14 oa every day of the week...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Even if there is a drop after 13, it doesn't mean anything really. There's no guarantee everyone picks from that top 13 pool and one is there at 14. Reaching happens in the draft because lots of people are convinced of their scouting. The pick will be valuable to the Sharks which is all that really matters. Pick the best prospect available and move forward. If they entertain the possibility of trading back, that's fine by me too. This pick won't make or break the rebuild but could prove very useful. If Grier leverages it appropriately, that's all that matters and we'll see.

Considering it was for Karlsson, 14th overall is playing with house money.

 

[pappaf2]

Exactly, extremely high likely hood some team in the top 13 pick position goes “off the board” to pick someone that wasn’t projected in the top 13.

 

[Selachimorpha]

Based on current odds, there's about a 3.2% chance that the pick is deferred (Pens win lotto), a 94.7% chance that the pick is 14th, and a 2.1% chance that it is 15th.

 

[Lebanezer]

Baking soda?

Yeah, it’s expired though.

 

[coooldude]

Based on current odds, there's about a 3.2% chance that the pick is deferred (Pens win lotto), a 94.7% chance that the pick is 14th, and a 2.1% chance that it is 15th.

Deferred is great so long as they won the 1st overall, obvs.

Is the 2.1% chance option one where either DET or STL win either lottery?

 

[anthonyyy]

Deferred is great so long as they won the 1st overall, obvs.

Is the 2.1% chance option one where either DET or STL win either lottery?

I assume it's that DET or STL jump up 10 spots and push PIT down. They both have ~ 1.1% chance of moving up.

 

[coooldude]

I assume it's that DET or STL jump up 10 spots and push PIT down, although with a quick glance on Tankathon it looks like that's 1%.

Yeah, I think it's maybe 1% chance that happens in EITHER lottery, which is 2%, plus the 0.1% chance that they both win one of the lotteries, but then I'm not sure why that wouldn't be PIT at 16OA. Some probability tree to draw here. Anyway... I'd take the scenario where PIT is 15 because we are more likely to get Macklin.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Exactly, extremely high likely hood some team in the top 13 pick position goes “off the board” to pick someone that wasn’t projected in the top 13.

Plus, it’s not even very likely that the Sharks have the same top-13 as I do. It’s totally possible that if we picked 11-13, we’d take someone outside my “top-13” anyway.

The 2023 draft was super crazy in the 5-13 range. If you told me Danil But was gonna go before Zach Benson, I would have laughed myself to death. I had a personal “top-9” tier and two of those guys dropped out of the top-9 (Benson and Dvorsky).

Silayev, Yakemchuk, Connolly, Eiserman, Sennecke, and Jiricek are huge wildcards. The Iginla hype train seems to have calmed down a bit. Lindstrom and Catton have worrying injuries and won’t be playing in the U18. Someone could easily fall in love with one of the USHL guys like Hage or Boisvert. One of the European D like LSW, Freij, or even Kiviharju could dominate the U18 and rise like Willander.

Bottom line is that while I wanted 13, it’s probably not going to matter.

 

[themelkman]

Let’s not forget a public top “13” probably won’t even be close to each teams list. The sharks have guys they won’t draft and stuff they look for and those players will be higher or lower to the team

 

[mogambomoroo]

I think this could be the draft to use that 14th pick to trade up to a higher pick. As high as they can get, the better. Just to get their scoutings best defencemen available.

 

[Red Light Lover]

Someone from the top-13 will be there at 14. There isn’t such a clear cut tier as there was in 2021, where there was a gigantic tier drop after 9 that resulted in the Sens taking Tyler Boucher 10th.

There's always a Teemu Riihijärvi.