GDT: Preds @ Canes (Game 1) 3/17

[Soundgarden]

A team that fights its way into the playoffs, loses game 1 on the road to the #1 seed on the division, and the fire/trade/cut everyone crowd returns to their ranting. The conundrum of beating Carolina in their barn continues ... we haven't done it yet this season. Time to see what adjustments in lineup and tactics each team makes and go at it again Wednesday night.

Right. We have to remember that Carolina's the best team in the division and third best in the league. They have the better team. I'm glad we held our own with them in the first +, but I'm not expecting to win many games.

Let's hope Tolvanen and Fabbro are in next game.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

I agree, it's not ideal having both Harpur and Gudbranson out there on the same pair. But I also say, on the third goal, Joey got caught puck-watching and missed his guy on the slot. That's not solely on Gudbranson.

Harpur is literally standing in the blue paint next to Saros. His guy (Trocheck) is the one that went below the goal line to retrieve the puck and make the pass. If Harpur follows him down there he at least doesn't give Trocheck the time and space to make that pass. Since he didn't do that his next best option is to take up space in the slot so if the Canes do win the puck (and why wouldn't they? it was 2 on 1 with Arvidsson coming in when Trocheck got the puck.) He did neither instead choosing to stand like a big oaf next to Saros.

 

[Kat Predator]

I agree, it's not ideal having both Harpur and Gudbranson out there on the same pair. But I also say, on the third goal, Joey got caught puck-watching and missed his guy on the slot. That's not solely on Gudbranson.

It was a great play by Trocheck that was the difference. The puck ended up nearest Gudbranson, who looked like he had position to retrieve it, but Trocheck tied up his stick and allowed Necas to come in, get the puck, take his time, and Nino to get open in the slot. Our other 4 skaters all were puck watching, out of position, or thought Gudbranson had the puck. Carolina is just too skilled a team to get caught guessing (which is what happened to Saros on that bad angle Staal goal as well).

Forsberg and Harpur were both on the other side of the net, guarding no one, and presumably thinking about a breakout? Arvidsson was marking no one on the same side as Gudbransson. Trocheck screening him from seeing the puck. And Johansen was marking Nino but lost him, had the pass get by him, and it was in the back of the net, bang-bang.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

It was a great play by Trocheck that was the difference. The puck ended up nearest Gudbranson, who looked like he had position to retrieve it, but Trocheck tied up his stick and allowed Necas to come in, get the puck, take his time, and Nino to get open in the slot. Our other 4 skaters all were puck watching, out of position, or thought Gudbranson had the puck. Carolina is just too skilled a team to get caught guessing (which is what happened to Saros on that bad angle Staal goal as well).

Forsberg and Harpur were both on the other side of the net, guarding no one, and presumably thinking about a breakout? Arvidsson was marking no one on the same side as Gudbransson. Trocheck screening him from seeing the puck. And Johansen was marking Nino but lost him, had the pass get by him, and it was in the back of the net, bang-bang.

This is an exact description of so many goals against in the Lavi system. Everyone expects the lone player near the puck to do some magic against two opponents and come up with the puck so they get to the boards or neutral zone so they can get a nifty breakaway. Instead, it's a minus on their stats.

 

[101st_fan]

Right. We have to remember that Carolina's the best team in the division and third best in the league. They have the better team. I'm glad we held our own with them in the first +, but I'm not expecting to win many games.

Let's hope Tolvanen and Fabbro are in next game.

Assuming the Olivier experiment ends and Jeannot moves back to that slot it becomes an interesting choice. The vet Richardson who hasn't played much (5 games since returning, 1 a), Tolvanen with is great 5 weeks statistically (14 of 18 games with a point, 11 of 12 PP points) but not much since April 3 (1g, 2a in 9 games), or Cousins with 5 points (1g, 4a) since April 23rd which are his last 5 regular season games. The go with the bulkiest in the name of physicality didn't work out so what is the next tactical gameplan and who best fits?

 

[bdub24]

I didn't say he wasn't good player. I pointed out the flaws with citing nothing but PP performance that was in MARCH for justifying playing him over players like Jeannot, Haula, Cousins, Kunin in the top 9 when all of them are outperforming Tolvanen over the past month. Objective data and logic over your reductio ad absurdum. Feel free to try again.

Now now no need to get all latin about it

 

[Kat Predator]

This is an exact description of so many goals against in the Lavi system. Everyone expects the lone player near the puck to do some magic against two opponents and come up with the puck so they get to the boards or neutral zone so they can get a nifty breakaway. Instead, it's a minus on their stats.

Laviolette has been gone for a year and a half now, so with all due respect, I can't really blame him for that breakdown.

For what it's worth, there were distinct differences on that play to the Laviolette system. They were not playing man on man. No one was prematurely flying the zone. Harpur was playing the backside tied to the goal post. Finally, Niederreiter actually used Hynes' close support system against Johansen. He circled out of the slot, out towards the circle, and back high in the slot. Johansen didn't want to give up his territory by the other goal post, left Nino to maintain his lower close support position, and even though he was the one still playing defense, got victimized by a fantastic tape to tape pass by Necas.

Towards the end in the Laviolette system, the breakdowns were often in sorting and stacking, as well as a ridiculous amount of puck watching. Nobody was on the same page, it seemed. Time and again, two Preds would take the same guy, leaving a shooter wide open, and it was Rinne's fault for not making a superman save. Despite emphasis on being a speed team, the Preds often found themselves in terrible matchups as well, leaving, for instance, Ryan Ellis one on one with the other team's fastest or strongest player. Sorry, Jamie Benn is just going to ragdoll an undersized Ellis over and over. The offensive emphasis of flying the zone didn't help anything either. No question about that.

 

[101st_fan]

Now now no need to get all latin about it

So en vino veritas would be wasted on you?

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Laviolette has been gone for a year and a half now, so with all due respect, I can't really blame him for that breakdown.

For what it's worth, there were distinct differences on that play to the Laviolette system. They were not playing man on man. No one was prematurely flying the zone. Harpur was playing the backside tied to the goal post. Finally, Niederreiter actually used Hynes' close support system against Johansen. He circled out of the slot, out towards the circle, and back high in the slot. Johansen didn't want to give up his territory by the other goal post, left Nino to maintain his lower close support position, and even though he was the one still playing defense, got victimized by a fantastic tape to tape pass by Necas.

Towards the end in the Laviolette system, the breakdowns were often in sorting and stacking, as well as a ridiculous amount of puck watching. Nobody was on the same page, it seemed. Time and again, two Preds would take the same guy, leaving a shooter wide open, and it was Rinne's fault for not making a superman save. Despite emphasis on being a speed team, the Preds often found themselves in terrible matchups as well, leaving, for instance, Ryan Ellis one on one with the other team's fastest or strongest player. Sorry, Jamie Benn is just going to ragdoll an undersized Ellis over and over. The offensive emphasis of flying the zone didn't help anything either. No question about that.

I'd have to rewatch it, I didn't see the goal live so I was just going off your description. That and the fact I feel like JoFA reverts to that style of play when together. Especially the sorting out who goes where and when on the back check.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I hope you guys realize now why trading for Gudbrandson was bad. Yes he only cost a 7th but he gave our umm, not ideal coach an opportunity to take out someone like Fabbro under the guise of size and toughness and our size and toughness pairing was a f***ing disaster.

Gudbransson has played with a lot of poise and composure in his games against the Canes, I think him and Harpur (who looked really lost at times) were just a bad match this game and Carolina was able to exploit a lot of our weaknesses last night.

Fabbro though, he honestly hasn't been that great this season, to the point I might lean protecting Carrier if having to choose between the 2 (but both over Ellis). He's also been battling injuries. I don't have much issue leaving him out in game 1.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Gudbransson has played with a lot of poise and composure in his games against the Canes, I think him and Harpur (who looked really lost at times) were just a bad match this game and Carolina was able to exploit a lot of our weaknesses last night.

Fabbro though, he honestly hasn't been that great this season, to the point I might lean protecting Carrier if having to choose between the 2 (but both over Ellis). He's also been battling injuries. I don't have much issue leaving him out in game 1.

I think there was a point in the game where I was actually thinking, hey, Gudbranson and Harpur are doing alright. They were hanging in there. That was probably in the 2nd period. And then they got beat on that goal to start the 3rd, and later I think there was one sequence where Aho absolutely blew past Harpur with speed too, and I thought, welp, good thing I didn't post THAT thought in the GDT.

But actually they weren't soooo bad even still. Aho WILL blow past some defensemen with speed, it's not going to just be Harpur. It's Aho. He does that. Harpur and Gudbranson were our... 2nd best? 2nd worst?... defense pairing last night. That's still 1 slot better than they should be expected to be.

I think one thing we really didn't do well compared to the previous couple of games was win battles and gain possession in the neutral zone. We lost those battles badly. What that meant is that we didn't have much opportunity to control our line changes. So Carolina was able to control the matchups almost uncontested, which also put extra pressure on those D.

I still like Harpur and Gudbranson a lot better than Borowiecki and Benning. Now as for Fabbro... that's a different story. I know it feels like forever ago, but in the first couple of weeks of the season I can remember the narrative being how Fabbro was playing great and maybe was our best D for a couple weeks there. It didn't last, but he's also 22 and I think we're better off investing the icetime in him, whether he is better or whether he isn't.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I think there was a point in the game where I was actually thinking, hey, Gudbranson and Harpur are doing alright. They were hanging in there. That was probably in the 2nd period. And then they got beat on that goal to start the 3rd, and later I think there was one sequence where Aho absolutely blew past Harpur with speed too, and I thought, welp, good thing I didn't post THAT thought in the GDT.

But actually they weren't soooo bad even still. Aho WILL blow past some defensemen with speed, it's not going to just be Harpur. It's Aho. He does that. Harpur and Gudbranson were our... 2nd best? 2nd worst?... defense pairing last night. That's still 1 slot better than they should be expected to be.

I think one thing we really didn't do well compared to the previous couple of games was win battles and gain possession in the neutral zone. We lost those battles badly. What that meant is that we didn't have much opportunity to control our line changes. So Carolina was able to control the matchups almost uncontested, which also put extra pressure on those D.

I still like Harpur and Gudbranson a lot better than Borowiecki and Benning. Now as for Fabbro... that's a different story. I know it feels like forever ago, but in the first couple of weeks of the season I can remember the narrative being how Fabbro was playing great and maybe was our best D for a couple weeks there. It didn't last, but he's also 22 and I think we're better off investing the icetime in him, whether he is better or whether he isn't.

Good post

 

[predhead1]

I think there was a point in the game where I was actually thinking, hey, Gudbranson and Harpur are doing alright. They were hanging in there. That was probably in the 2nd period. And then they got beat on that goal to start the 3rd, and later I think there was one sequence where Aho absolutely blew past Harpur with speed too, and I thought, welp, good thing I didn't post THAT thought in the GDT.

But actually they weren't soooo bad even still. Aho WILL blow past some defensemen with speed, it's not going to just be Harpur. It's Aho. He does that. Harpur and Gudbranson were our... 2nd best? 2nd worst?... defense pairing last night. That's still 1 slot better than they should be expected to be.

I think one thing we really didn't do well compared to the previous couple of games was win battles and gain possession in the neutral zone. We lost those battles badly. What that meant is that we didn't have much opportunity to control our line changes. So Carolina was able to control the matchups almost uncontested, which also put extra pressure on those D.

I still like Harpur and Gudbranson a lot better than Borowiecki and Benning. Now as for Fabbro... that's a different story. I know it feels like forever ago, but in the first couple of weeks of the season I can remember the narrative being how Fabbro was playing great and maybe was our best D for a couple weeks there. It didn't last, but he's also 22 and I think we're better off investing the icetime in him, whether he is better or whether he isn't.

In the same vein, if Poile is truly committed to starting a youth movement, now is the time. Fabbro deserves a chance to show what he can do, and the same is true for Tolvanen and arguably Tomasino. Trotting any of Cousins/Richardson/Olivier out for these games doesn't measurably improve our chances of victory, but maybe Tolvanen can make a difference given a chance. Same is true on the backend - Gudbranson gives us size, but he's not a long term investment for the team, while Fabbro was arguably a #1 pairing D-man this year and we'll need him to be so in the near future. We'll know what we're saddled with once the expansion draft is over, but we know now that there are several young, talented players in the organization and we should see what they can do (or not) now that the games truly matter.