Speculation: Predict the upcoming contracts for Zegras/Terry/Drysdale

[Reveille1984]

Betting on himself in that scenario would be him leaving about $30M on the table, which isn't going to happen.

If he wants to do that he'll just sign a bridge.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Betting on himself in that scenario would be him leaving about $30M on the table, which isn't going to happen.

If he wants to do that he'll just sign a bridge.

The numbers would be different but it would be a lot like Matthews (5 years) or Marner (6 years).

 

[Reveille1984]

Marner already had a 94 point season under his belt at that point, and Matthews had a 40G rookie campaign. They also both have around an $11M cap hit as well, there's no way Zegras is getting into that stratosphere.

It could happen I guess, I just don't see it.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Marner already had a 94 point season under his belt at that point, and Matthews had a 40G rookie campaign. They also both have around an $11M cap hit as well, there's no way Zegras is getting into that stratosphere.

It could happen I guess, I just don't see it.

I did say the numbers would be different. But the concept would be the same. Just that your 8 year deal will be down the road at a much fatter rate than what it would be now. And your 5 year deal will still be quite sweet. No need to get a second job in the off season.

Personally, I'd take the money now. And it's likely Z will too. But if there's anybody on the team who would bet on himself in that manner it would be him, IMO. I guess we'll see shortly.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Z 8- 6.9
Terry- 8 6.5
Drysdale - 3- 3.8

 

[mighty Stanley Duck]

Why would Zegras go shorter term?

I think it could make sense for him (not us)...i doubt he can get Hughes money, even though Hughes got it year before breakout season...
He is currently closer to Cozens money, and i think PV will offer him that, but i dont think Z looks at himself like that.
Maybe he wants Hughes money, maybe even Larkins, and he can get it faster if he takes shorter contract.
I wouldn't be surprised if he negotiates 5 yrs x 7.5.

 

[mighty Stanley Duck]

Z 8- 6.9
Terry- 8 6.5
Drysdale - 3- 3.8

I doubt he will get less than Boldy.
8 x 7-7.25 is my take.

 

[cheesymc]

I see Z and Terry getting around 7.25-8.25 five to seven years, and Drysdale about 3.75-4.5 shorter prove it contract.

 

[Hey234]

My gut tells me tells me Terry and Zegras will get the same contact at 8 years x 7.5-8. Bridge contract makes sense for Drysdale so 2 years x 3

 

[duckpuck]

I could be wrong, but I think Z gets a contract with around $8M AAV and Terry gets less than people here are predicting (both in AAV and term). Or maybe gets a lot of term with a lower AAV.

Recognizing that Terry has been more consistent and arguably more productive, the NHL trend is to give young star players big second contracts where the AAV is based more on projection than past performance. I think Z is that type of player - not sure Terry really is in terms of his skill set and older age.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

I could be wrong, but I think Z gets a contract with around $8M AAV and Terry gets less than people here are predicting (both in AAV and term). Or maybe gets a lot of term with a lower AAV.

Recognizing that Terry has been more consistent and arguably more productive, the NHL trend is to give young star players big second contracts where the AAV is based more on projection than past performance. I think Z is that type of player - not sure Terry really is in terms of his skill set and older age.

I definitely expected the most variance when it came to predictions for Terry. There's more common precedence for where Z and JD are at, and therefore it's easier to come up with comparables. Terry is a more unique situation.

What factored into my prediction for Terry was the fact that he's in his final year of RFA control and has the option to elect arbitration before being UFA eligible next season. This will be a big leverage point for Terry's agent because they'll know that a bridge or shorter term deal really is not in the team's best interests. They know the Ducks will want to get him locked up, and there's no reason to accept too much less than you think he can get on the open market a year later.

I believe we'll have to pay him an AAV that would reflect firm status as a top line forward. I'll be pleasantly a bit surprised if we get him on a long term deal for a number that starts with less than 7.

 

[Gliff]

Bet on himself. The guy is not short on confidence.

Good to remember signing an 8 year deal now gets him to UFA at age 30 instead of 32/33 like if he got a bridge deal. Way more likely to get that 7 year overpayment UFA deal at 30 then 32/33.

 

[70sSanO]

Monday will have an impact on what we do going forward.

If we get Bedard, what does that do to Z and Terry contracts. Do the Ducks want to go 8 years for them?

If Mac and Bedard really click and are 100 point players, do we become another Edmonton or Toronto that struggles with the D because of our offensive cap hit?

This may not be as straight forward as it looks.

John

 

[Quack Shot]

Drysdale 2 x $3mil
Zegras 8x$7mill
Terry 8x$7.25

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Funny how no one is saying how terrible of a decision it was to wait until after the season to sign these guys. That vocal minority sure has piped down recently.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Funny how no one is saying how terrible of a decision it was to wait until after the season to sign these guys. That vocal minority sure has piped down recently.

There was still no benefit to waiting. Z would have gotten 8x8 last summer and he's going to get that now if he's willing to sign it. Terry will get something similar. The numbers could have been worse by waiting had either one exploded production wise.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

There was still no benefit to waiting. Z would have gotten 8x8 last summer and he's going to get that now if he's willing to sign it. Terry will get something similar. The numbers could have been worse by waiting had either one exploded production wise.

Sure there was, especially in hindsight. Both Terry and Zegras now have 2 solid seasons under their belt, not just one. That's a huge difference in the outlook and projection over the course of their next contracts.

Also, Drysdale practically missed the entire season. Having him locked into an extension prior to this season with as uncertain as his future currently projects is far from ideal. The general consensus is that he's likely to get a bridge deal, which might work out pretty great for us if he exceeds expectations with a lower cap hit.

The vocal minority I was referring to constantly brought up how Terry and Zegras are going to "get paid." The inference being their production was about to explode and Verbeek would regret his decision to wait. It was a stupid thing to say at the time and it turns out Verbeek made the right call.

To be clear, it's one thing to voice a legitimate concern and another to make baseless predictions while prematurely casting judgment. The latter is what I'm commenting on.

 

[lwvs84]

Monday will have an impact on what we do going forward.

If we get Bedard, what does that do to Z and Terry contracts. Do the Ducks want to go 8 years for them?

If Mac and Bedard really click and are 100 point players, do we become another Edmonton or Toronto that struggles with the D because of our offensive cap hit?

This may not be as straight forward as it looks.

John

I'd sign both to 8 years, especially if you can get them under $8 mil each. Then sign McTavish to an 8 year contract as soon as possible, the cap will eventually go up, by the time Bedard is in line for his second contract, if Z/Terry/McTavish/Drysdale are all signed to reasonable/bargain contracts, we should be able to absorb that raise and still keep our d-men. Hopefully a few of the defensive D will pan out, they tend to be hard to find but cheaper to keep. I'm prepared to drop in the draft, so Fantilli/Carlsson should make less than Bedard, which will help us keep the depth.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Good to remember signing an 8 year deal now gets him to UFA at age 30 instead of 32/33 like if he got a bridge deal. Way more likely to get that 7 year overpayment UFA deal at 30 then 32/33.

I think we are somewhat on the same page. I'm speculating he might go for a 5 or 6 year deal now (around $7m), taking him to 27 or 28 at which point he then gets 8 years from somebody for a really big AAV.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Funny how no one is saying how terrible of a decision it was to wait until after the season to sign these guys. That vocal minority sure has piped down recently.

The loudest of the group seems to have disappeared.

 

[Gliff]

Funny how no one is saying how terrible of a decision it was to wait until after the season to sign these guys. That vocal minority sure has piped down recently.

Or the ones who thought that are not dying on the hill.

I thought they should have sign them also and I'm happy to be wrong.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Or the ones who thought that are not dying on the hill.

I thought they should have sign them also and I'm happy to be wrong.

Or some of the ones who thought that did die on the hill.

There's a distinction between being wary that it could be a mistake and outright saying it was a terrible decision before the season even started. The difference is the former perspective is reasonable and the latter is just foolish.

 

[Duck Off]

Funny how no one is saying how terrible of a decision it was to wait until after the season to sign these guys. That vocal minority sure has piped down recently.

The only player I remember many talking about was Zegras, and it was predominantly one specific poster who always went out of his or her way to mention it.

We'll know a lot more after Z signs, but it wouldn't shock me that if he does sign an 8 year deal, that it's a little higher than it would been had we signed him last offseason.

Edit: I could be wrong as I didn't visit this board nearly as often last year as I normally do so apologies if I missed a wave of multiple people bitching about it.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

The only player I remember many talking about was Zegras, and it was predominantly one specific poster who always went out of his or her way to mention it.

Hence the term "vocal minority."

We'll know a lot more after Z signs, but it wouldn't shock me that if he does sign an 8 year deal, that it's a little higher than it would been had we signed him last offseason.

How would that be possible for anyone other than his agent or Verbeek to know? If we're going based solely on production as a general barometer of a player's worth, if anything we saved money. Zegras' PPG had a minor dip this year compared to his rookie season.

 

[Static]

There was still no benefit to waiting. Z would have gotten 8x8 last summer and he's going to get that now if he's willing to sign it. Terry will get something similar. The numbers could have been worse by waiting had either one exploded production wise.

What do you mean? There was a ton of benefit in waiting. The risk was signing both to a long term deal after one good year. Good thing we didn't do that with comtois.