Speculation: Predict our Scoring Totals for Next Season

[Tables of Stats]

When we signed him we all agreed, "okay, what we've got here is a defensively reliable blue liner with good skating and positioning, and a big shot. Now, that 16 goal performance was an aberration, but if he replaces Salo's power play role and production (i.e. 8-12), we'll be quite happy."

Now everyone's decided he's going to be in the Weber / Karlsson / Subban conversation year in and year out? Don't get your hopes too high. Like I say, somewhere in the 10-15 range is optimistic but fair. Under 8 would be pessimistic. Pushing 20, you're out on a limb.

Pointless debate I guess, I just thought it was funny, someone up there had him at 23 goals.

20 would be the high end of what I expect, but I personally put down 15 as I could see him in the 10-20 range if he gets time on a PP that actually works. He was on a great pace on the back half of the season and our PP was abysmal.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Looks like our predicted low end is about 215 goals, mid range is roughly 240, and high end is 275. The more different predictions we get the better our chances of finding the correct result gets so if you're just browsing through lay your prediction on me.

EDIT: Went through the thread and looked at predicted goal totals and made this list. Sorry to the guys that just did points, I appreciate your input too but it's less useful for this purpose.

Raw List:

236 - Norade
249 - Edler Von Gud
221 - ihaveyuidonttouchme
225 - Shareefruck
269 - Vankiller Whale
215 - y2canucks
257 - canuck4life16
252 - CM-
228 - myrocketsgotcracked
225 - Reverend Mayhem
275 - Braeden

High: 275 - Braeden
Low: 215 - y2canucks
Average: 241
Poster Closest to Average: 236 - Norade

It's been shown that large enough crowds are really good at predicting things accurately so I'll be adding this to the OP and looking for more data points.

Judging by these results a lot of people are going to be surprised/disappointed this year when they see the team on the ice struggling to score goals.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Judging by these results a lot of people are going to be surprised/disappointed this year when they see the team on the ice struggling to score goals.

We might, or we might not, our pace last year was a fairly atrocious 207 goals for an 82 game season, but our center depth was also terrible and we never seemed to click at all with all the players coming back from injuries, and of course the putrid PP didn't help any.

I think we do better than a 207 goal pace for sure, but do we do that by 8 goals, 29 goals, 68 goals, more? I'm not 100% sure. I'm hoping that our PP is better and that the Sedins manage a 70 point pace, that Kesler can stay healthy, and that Booth plays as he should play when not injured. If none of those things happen we could be in for a rough season.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

I'm going to say 23 less goals than we scored last year... whatever that number is.

 

[canuck4life16]

we will score lot of goal again the doubters are always wrong

 

[Tables of Stats]

I'm going to say 23 less goals than we scored last year... whatever that number is.

Is that 23 less pro-rated or do you think we'll score under 100 goals?

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

Is that 23 less pro-rated or do you think we'll score under 100 goals?

Forgot about that.

Pro-rated it is.

It probably wont be that bad - I'm just trying to temper my expectations for next season.

 

[Karl Hungus]

I don't see where all the goals are going to come from. The Sedins and Kesler are going to help but our depth has withered a bit and our D will probably play more a bit more conservatively under Torts. The only way I see us being an offensive team is if our youth steps up big time.

 

[y2kcanucks]

we will score lot of goal again the doubters are always wrong

I doubted that this team could make it past round 1 this year and I was right.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Forgot about that.

Pro-rated it is.

It probably wont be that bad - I'm just trying to temper my expectations for next season.

That would be 184 goals, good for the worst goal scoring in the league based on last season's pro rated numbers. That would make us the second lowest scoring team in the last 5 years 'bested' only by New jersey in the 2010-11 season. I seriously doubt that happens.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

I said 225, but I think my expectations of the Sedins are a bit high, perhaps my expectations of the defense might be a bit low, however.

 

[PG Canuck]

we will score lot of goal again the doubters are always wrong

I doubt they score a lot in the playoffs, where it matters the most.

 

[Nuckles]

D. Sedin - H. Sedin - Kassian
(30-45-75 / 16-59-75 / 23-22-45) [68 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(18-20-38 / 25-35-60 / 20-30-50) [63 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(17-20-37 / 10-22-32 / 15-21-36) [42 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(6-11-17 / 2-6-8 / 6-6-12) [14 goals]
Sestito
(1-2-3) [1 goal]

Hamhuis - Bieksa
(6-29-35 / 9-23-32) [15 goals]
Edler - Tanev
(11-35-46 / 2-18-20) [13 goals]
Garrison - Corrado
(12-17-29 / 2-13-15) [14 goals]
Weber
(2-8-10) [2 goals]

Luongo
Lack

232 goals total.

 

[Lindt]

The Sedins are not the type of players that get hampered by their linemate. They are the type of players that make their linemate perform way above his regular output. Anyone remember 33 goal Anson Carter? Trent Klatt?! Or Kassian before he got moved off the line?

Sedins should be around the 80 point mark and Kassian should get around 20 goals. For sure he is a downgrade (for now) over Burrows, but I feel that difference will be made up on the powerplay, where the Sedins and the entire team were poor last year. Projecting the same poor PP performance along with a significant decline in 5 on 5 output is possible but unlikely, though it fits well with y2k's hatred of the Sedins.

 

[Pip]

D Sedin - H Sedin - Kassian
(32-48-80/18-65-83/23-17-40) [73 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(20-18-38/29-20-49/18-24-42) [67 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(13-15-28/8-24-32/22-17-39) [43 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(4-9-13/1-6-7/7-5-12) [12 goals]
Sestito
(0-2-2) [0 goals]

Hamhuis - Bieksa
(8-31-39/9-23-32) [17 goals]
Edler - Tanev
(13-35-48/1-14-15) [14 goals]
Garrison - Weber
(14-17-32/4-14-18) [18 goals]

244 total goals

 

[Nicolas Cage]

Forwards: 185 goals

D. Sedin | H. Sedin | Z. Kassian = 65 goals
(25g-50a-75p | 10g-65a-75p | 30g-20a-50p)

D. Booth | R. Kesler | A. Burrows = 75 goals
(20g-30a-50p | 30g-40a-70p | 25g-20a-45p)

C. Higgins | J. Schroeder | J. Hansen = 35 goals
(10g-30a-40p | 10g-25a-35p | 15g-20a-35p)

B. Richardson | M. Santorelli | D. Weise = 10 goals
(5g-15a-20p | 3g-8a-11p | 2g-6a-8p)

Defensemen = 51 goals

D. Hamhuis | K. Bieksa = 15 goals
(8g-35a-43p | 7g-32a-39p)

A. Edler | C. Tanev = 15 goals
(12g-45a-57p | 3g-15a-18p)

J. Garrison | F. Corrado / Y. Weber = 21 goals
(15g-35a-50p | 2g-8a-10p / 4g-8a-12p)

Team: 185 + 51 = 236 goals

 

[shottasasa]

Forwards: 196 goals

D. Sedin | H. Sedin | Z. Kassian = 74 goals
(34g-47a-81p | 16g-66a-82p | 24g-22a-46p)

D. Booth | R. Kesler | A. Burrows = 66 goals
(21g-25a-46p | 26g-31a-62p | 19g-25a-44p)

C. Higgins | J. Schroeder | J. Hansen = 40 goals
(15g-25a-40p | 10g-31a-41p | 15g-21a-36p)

B. Richardson | M. Santorelli | D. Weise = 16 goals
(5g-15a-20p | 4g-8a-12p | 7g-6a-13p)

Defensemen = 47 goals

D. Hamhuis | K. Bieksa = 13 goals
(6g-33a-39p | 7g-30a-37p)

A. Edler | C. Tanev = 15 goals
(12g-40a-52p | 3g-15a-18p)

J. Garrison | F. Corrado / Y. Weber = 19 goals
(13g-31a-44p | 1g-8a-10p / 5g-8a-12p)

Team: 196 + 47 = 243 goals

for a scoring rate of 2.96 per game.

 

[ginner classic]

I'll say 208

 

[Spectrefire]

Why does everyone keep projecting Hamhuis for 8ish goals? The man has never topped 7 goals in his career and has consistently posted 4-5 the rest of the way.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Why does everyone keep projecting Hamhuis for 8ish goals? The man has never topped 7 goals in his career and has consistently posted 4-5 the rest of the way.

He was on pace for 7 last season and if he gets some PP time with a working unit I could see 8. I could also see 4-5, but that's not going to make or break a prediction.

---

Also posted the newest predictions and the average dropped to 239 goals, for a total of 2.91 goals per game.

 

[shottasasa]

I think Tortz will view Hamius as his best all-round defenseman and play him top minutes. A year or two ago I would have said Edler would be the guy but Hamius has added an extra offinsive dimension recently and has hit his prime.

 

[TLinden]

I think Tortz will view Hamius as his best all-round defenseman and play him top minutes. A year or two ago I would have said Edler would be the guy but Hamius has added an extra offinsive dimension recently and has hit his prime.

Yup, Hammer is going to be on the PP more this season. Torts played Girardi quite a bit on the powerplay with Del Zotto or a forward at the point. Makes more sense then having Edler+forward, what with Edler's inability to hold the blueline. Hammer will put up 8-10 goals.

I have tempered expectations for the team's goal scoring. Now IF (and a big if) Kassian can settle in on the Sedin line, I can see the team getting by just fine until the deadline.. middle of the pack in scoring. Deadline (or earlier) is where I hope to god Gillis adds a legitimate scoring option to play with Kesler and Burrows/Higgins/Hansen/Booth/anyone

 

[topheavyhookjaw]

Sedin - Sedin - Kassian
(32-44-76 / 13-67-80 / 23-16-39) [68 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(24-17-41 / 27-33-60 / 16-27-43) [67 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(17-18-35 / 9-21-30 / 14-28-42) [40 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(9-7-16 / 5-7-12 / 4-7-11) [18 goals]

Hamhuis - Beiksa
(5-25-30 / 11-25-36) [16 goals]
Edler - Garrison
(9-34-43 / 12-15-27) [21 goals]
Tanev - Weber
(2-10-12 / 3-14-17) [5 goals]


Total: 235

 

[Hardyvan123]

We might, or we might not, our pace last year was a fairly atrocious 207 goals for an 82 game season, but our center depth was also terrible and we never seemed to click at all with all the players coming back from injuries, and of course the putrid PP didn't help any.

I think we do better than a 207 goal pace for sure, but do we do that by 8 goals, 29 goals, 68 goals, more? I'm not 100% sure. I'm hoping that our PP is better and that the Sedins manage a 70 point pace, that Kesler can stay healthy, and that Booth plays as he should play when not injured. If none of those things happen we could be in for a rough season.

Like I said, I'm going to wait until we know the opening day roster but the Sedins might play at a 70 point pace (their recent trends have them going there), Kesler and Booth who knows but even if 2 of those things happen we might be in trouble.

I will say one thing for sure IMO we won't go from 207 to more than 240ish tops with the current roster.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Like I said, I'm going to wait until we know the opening day roster but the Sedins might play at a 70 point pace (their recent trends have them going there), Kesler and Booth who knows but even if 2 of those things happen we might be in trouble.

I will say one thing for sure IMO we won't go from 207 to more than 240ish tops with the current roster.

I suppose that depends on why you think our offence was bad. I'm looking mainly at injuries in this first part of my post.

Kesler, if not injured is usually good for about 20 goals in a full season. That's roughly 12 over a 48 game season. In the games he did play he scored 4 and Schroeder scored 3, but that still leaves us missing 5 goals.

Booth should be good for 15 if healthy. That's about 9 over 48 games, he potted 1 last season and likely had another 4 replaced by other players getting his ice time. So that's another 4 goals.

So we can get 9 goals in a shortened season by having our two most noted injuries playing. Kesler, as much as people like to moan, has played 90% of his games over the past 5 years with most of the games missed coming this season. Booth has had a rash of bad luck and none predictable injuries.

Add in the difference between Garrison's first and last half of the season and that's an extra 2 goals. Fixing the PP gould be a few extra goals, as could having lines that manage to gel due to a few less key injuries. You can easily see how with better circumstances we could have had an extra 15 goals in the shortened season.

That makes the difference between 207 prorated and 234 prorated (122 and 137 base). So I'd say us returning to top 10 in scoring is possible with a little luck and some proper coaching.