Speculation: Predict our Scoring Totals for Next Season

[Tables of Stats]

Like the thread says take a whack at where our players will finish in terms of goal scoring and points. Bonus points if you do the whole roster and a line by line breakdown.

Here's mine as posted in a few other threads:

Here's what it seems like we have as our starting lineup baring more signings and camp standouts. I've added a few goal projections to show that we're not as bad offensively as people might think.

Sedin - Sedin - Kassian
(25-45-70 / 15-55-70 / 15-20-35) [55 goals]
Booth - Kesler - Burrows
(20-20-40 / 25-30-55 / 20-25-45) [65 goals]
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(15-15-30 / 15-20-35 / 20-20-40) [50 goals]
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(7-8-15 / 3-7-10 / 5-5-10) [15 goals]

Hamhuis - Beiksa
(8-25-33 / 10-25-35) [18 goals]
Edler - Garrison
(10-30-40 / 15-15-30) [25 goals]
Tanev - Weber
(5-10-15 / 3-17-20) [8 goals]

Luongo
Lack

236 goals with fairly conservative estimates for most players that should be good for top ten in scoring. If the PP gets going you could possibly add a few more goals there and put us top 5.

Feel free to comment on it and say why you agree or disagree with what I have, and of course post your own lineups and point totals.

EDIT: Changed Hamhuis' point total after it was pointed out as being overly high, goals unchanged.

EDIT 2: Feel free to change your prediction as the roster is finalized, but try to avoid editing after puck drop opening night so people don't think you changed things to look good.

EDIT 3: Went through the thread and looked at predicted goal totals and made this list. Sorry to the guys that just did points, I appreciate your input too but it's less useful for this purpose.

Raw List:

In Fanbase:
236 - Norade
249 - Edler Von Gud
221 - ihaveyuidonttouchme
225 - Shareefruck
269 - Vankiller Whale
215 - y2canucks
257 - canuck4life16
252 - CM-
228 - myrocketsgotcracked
225 - Reverend Mayhem
275 - Braeden
254 - Love
232 - Nuckles
244- live playoff hockey
236 - Nicolas Cage
243 - shottasasa
208 - ginner classic
235 - topheavyhookjaw
250 - kack zassian

Total Predicted: 4551
Total Posters: 19

Out of Fanbase:
227 - eklunds source

Total Predicted: 227
Total Posters: 1

Total Predicted: 4778
Total Posters: 20

Fanbase:
High: 275 - Braeden
Low: 208 - ginner classic
Average: 239.5
Poster(s) Closest to Average: 236 - Norade/Nicolas Cage

Out of Fanbase:
High: 227 - eklunds source
Low: 227 - eklunds source
Average: 227
Poster(s) Closest to Average: 227 - eklunds source

Total:
High: 275 - Braeden
Low: 208 - ginner classic
Average: 238.9
Poster(s) Closest to Average: 236 - Norade/Nicolas Cage

It's been shown that large enough crowds are really good at predicting things accurately so I'll be adding this to the OP and looking for more data points.

Click to read more...

 

[huntison]

Looks good.

 

[Qubax]

I find it odd that your totals are almost low in general, but then you have Hamhuis getting 48 points, when his career high is 38. Just seems strange.

 

[nameless1]

Sedins seems a bit low...
But within range...
While Schroeder seems to be a bit high.
I am ok with the rest of the 3rd line prediction...
Although I do see Higgins score a bit more...
While Hansen score a little bit less.

The total seems to be about right...
Even though I think it is on the low side.
I may be too optimistic though...
Now that I have looked it over carefully.

Edit:
As Qubax said...
Hamhuis' point total is too high.
40 might be the maximum.

I will be a little higher on Edler.
I think he is around 50 points.

I am also not sure Tanev can get 15 points...
But I may just be a downer.

Overall...
I think this is pretty accurate.
Good job.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I should also invite the guys who've been critical to come in here and throw down some solid numbers and stake a claim. I'll take you a lot more seriously if instead of nebulous claims and vague predictions you throw down exactly how you expect this team to fail.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I find it odd that your totals are almost low in general, but then you have Hamhuis getting 48 points, when his career high is 38. Just seems strange.

It is odd but I tried to base it on trends taken from this season and backed up trends from other seasons to support them. That number stands out as being high due to inflated averages over the shortened season, but that could be made up for if guys I have lower than they ought to be step up even a little. It doesn't change too much if we set him to like 25-30 assists.

EDIT: Changed his assist total to 25 and his points to 33 to fit more with what he's done to this point over a full season.

Sedins seems a bit low...
While the 3rd line seem a bit high.

The total seem to be about right.

Yeah, but the third line should trend upwards IMO and the Sedins with extra PK time might not score as much over all.

 

[nameless1]

It is odd but I tried to base it on trends taken from this season and backed up trends from other seasons to support them. That number stands out as being high due to inflated averages over the shortened season, but that could be made up for if guys I have lower than they ought to be step up even a little. It doesn't change too much if we set him to like 25-30 assists.

EDIT: Changed his assist total to 25 and his points to 33 to fit more with what he's done to this point over a full season.

33 is more realistic.
Now we just have to keep this...
And see how you did next year.

I am very impressed though...
And I think you are pretty accurate.

 

[Tables of Stats]

33 is more realistic.
Now we just have to keep this...
And see how you did next year.

I am very impressed though...
And I think you are pretty accurate.

I've messaged a few of the more outspokenly negative posters so I hope that we get some more predictions to look at. I'd also like to see the other balanced and even super homer fans post just to get a better spread. It would be cool if this, like our draft predictions, could be a thing that we do year to year and look back on.

 

[Bad News Benning]

H.Sedin 18g, 66a, 84p
D.Sedin 32g, 48a, 80p
Kesler 26g, 30a, 56p
Burrows 24g, 22a, 46p
Hansen 16g, 20a, 36p
Higgins 15g, 19a, 34p
Booth 17g, 15a, 32p
Kassian 15g, 13a, 28p
Schroeder 7g, 15a, 22p
Horvat 1g, 2a, 3p (9 gp)
Richardson 8g, 8a, 16 p
Weise 5g, 5a, 10p
Italia mafia members 13 w

Edler 14g, 30a, 44p
Hamhuis 5g, 29a, 34p
Bieksa 8g, 22a, 30p
Garrison 14g, 15a, 29p
Tanev 4g, 10a, 14p
Corrado 3g, 11a, 14p (half year)
Weber 4g, 8a, 12 p.

 

[ihaveyuidonttouchme]

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
(29-48-77/12-70-80/26-25-51) 67 Goals
Booth - Kesler - Kassian
(20-30-50/22-36-58/13-20-33) 55 Goals
Higgins - Schroeder - Hansen
(15-27-42/10-29-39/17-20-37) 42 Goals
Richardson - Santorelli - Weise
(3-8-11/2-8-10/5-3-8) 10 Goals
174 Goals total
Hamhuis - Beiksa
(5-28-32/10-35-45) 15
Edler - Garrison
(12-37-47/15-25-40) 27 - feels quite unrealistic but doable
Tanev - Weber
(2-18-20/3-8-11) 5
47
221 Goals total
Luongo
Lack

 

[Tables of Stats]

Hard to argue with either of those totals, especially as mine seems to be nearly dead in the middle between them.

 

[Dado]

236 goals with fairly conservative estimates for most players that should be good for top ten in scoring.

I think your projections are about as good as any others I've seen. I would only add that I don't think they're conservative, I see them as shading towards optimistic.

 

[StringerBell]

I think your projections are about as good as any others I've seen. I would only add that I don't think they're conservative, I see them as shading towards optimistic.

I would agree with this, however I think the only reasons they're optimistic are because you have the defense scoring 50 goals and it assumes everyone plays a full 82. I think the forwards are more or less spot on, but they won't reach those numbers due to injuries. I'd probably give Daniel another 5 goals or so too.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I didn't do points for every injury call up that might happen so you could certainly shave points off of some guys and add a lesser total in as scored by the call ups. This is what I'd predict if everybody stayed healthy and we had reasonable chemistry. It also fits roughly with the totals we've had the past few full seasons, so take that for what you think it's worth.

 

[Vancouver_2010]

you guys dont think horvat will make the team?

 

[Dado]

you guys dont think horvat will make the team?

I don't, no. Maybe the obligatory 9 games to give him a taste, but that's it.

 

[Shareefruck]

I'm going to dream and be completely optimistic about who makes the team and ignore all the trends that Torterella is leaning towards.

Not factoring injuries:

D. Sedin - H. Sedin - Kassian
[30g, 70p] [15g, 75p] [15g, 40p]
Booth - Horvat - Kesler
[20g, 40p] [15g, 40p] [25g, 60p]
Burrows - Gaunce - Hansen
[20g, 45p] [5g 20p] [20g, 45p]
Higgins - Richardson - Weise
[10g, 25p] [5g 20p] [5g 15p]

Edler - Corrado
[10g, 40p] [5g, 25p]
Hamhuis - Bieksa
[10g, 35p] [5g, 25p]
Garrison - Tanev
[20g, 30p] [0g, 15p]

Luongo
[.915]
Lack
[.895]

The amount of goals ACTUALLY scored will be much lower, as these are assuming everyone is 100% healthy, which won't happen.

* Horvat does better than anyone expects giving everyone flashes of Backes-Kesler
* Booth is serviceable as the third wheel
* Gaunce plays the Pahlsson role and is surprisingly solid in his own end (while lacking offense)
* Schroeder gets traded as a result
* Burrows and Hansen become inseperable and provide excellent offense from the 3rd line..
* Bieksa/Edler revert back to snarling, defensively sound Bieksa/Edler due to Tortorella, but loses some offense in the process.
* Corrado is awesome.
* Lack is disappointing. Everyone panics
* Hamhuis has a great year
* Weber and Santorelli are terrible
* Higgins forms chemistry with Richardson, Weise makes another stride and our 4th line becomes awesome.
* Schneider wins a Vezina and Luongo is just okay
* Tortorella is fantastic.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I've messaged a few of the more outspokenly negative posters so I hope that we get some more predictions to look at. I'd also like to see the other balanced and even super homer fans post just to get a better spread. It would be cool if this, like our draft predictions, could be a thing that we do year to year and look back on.

Hey I'm one of those lucky guys and like i replied I'm not really a numbers prediction guy but will post closer to the start of the season.

I'm pretty sure that I have the Sedins down for around 140 or slightly less in another thread though to start.

 

[arttk]

Sedin (85) - Sedin (85) - Kassian (40)
Booth (45) - Kesler (60) - Burrows (50)
Jensen/Higgins (30) - Schroder (35) - Hansen (35)
Higgins/Jensen (30) - Santorelli (10) - Richardson (10)

Edler (40) - Tanev (whatever)
Hamhuis (35) - Bieska (35)
Garrison (30) - Corrado (whatever)

Luongo (50)

I am a tad optimistic, but whatever, live life happy.

 

[rypper]

I'm going to dream and be completely optimistic about who makes the team and ignore all the trends that Torterella is leaning towards.

Not factoring injuries:

D. Sedin - H. Sedin - Kassian
[30g, 70p] [15g, 75p] [15g, 40p]
Booth - Horvat - Kesler
[20g, 40p] [15g, 40p] [25g, 60p]
Burrows - Gaunce - Hansen
[20g, 45p] [5g 20p] [20g, 45p]
Higgins - Richardson - Weise
[10g, 25p] [5g 20p] [5g 15p]

Edler - Corrado
[10g, 40p] [5g, 25p]
Hamhuis - Bieksa
[10g, 35p] [5g, 25p]
Garrison - Tanev
[20g, 30p] [0g, 15p]

Luongo
[.915]
Lack
[.895]

The amount of goals ACTUALLY scored will be much lower, as these are assuming everyone is 100% healthy, which won't happen.

* Horvat does better than anyone expects giving everyone flashes of Backes-Kesler
* Booth is serviceable as the third wheel
* Gaunce plays the Pahlsson role and is surprisingly solid in his own end (while lacking offense)
* Schroeder gets traded as a result
* Burrows and Hansen become inseperable and provide excellent offense from the 3rd line..
* Bieksa/Edler revert back to snarling, defensively sound Bieksa/Edler due to Tortorella, but loses some offense in the process.
* Corrado is awesome.
* Lack is disappointing. Everyone panics
* Hamhuis has a great year
* Weber and Santorelli are terrible
* Higgins forms chemistry with Richardson, Weise makes another stride and our 4th line becomes awesome.
* Schneider wins a Vezina and Luongo is just okay
* Tortorella is fantastic.

I want to live in this world.

 

[Vankiller Whale]

D. Sedin(34/47/81)-H. Sedins(22/63/85)-Kassian(25/25/50)
Booth(20/15/35)-Kesler(25/41/66) -Burrows(24/31/55)
Higgins(17/21/38)-Schroeder(14/23/37)-Hansen(20/22/42)
Richardson(7/10/17)-Santorelli(3/8/11)-Weise(6/5/11)

Edler(16/39/55)-Garrison(14/20/34)
Hamhuis(7/28/35)-Bieksa(12/23/35)
Corrado(1/5/6)-Tanev(2/9/11)

Luongo(.921)
Lack(.907)

 

[Tables of Stats]

Hey I'm one of those lucky guys and like i replied I'm not really a numbers prediction guy but will post closer to the start of the season.

I'm pretty sure that I have the Sedins down for around 140 or slightly less in another thread though to start.

No worries, I just figured we should hear from all sides and I figured the optimists would post anyway.

 

[fancouver]

TOP 9 HIGH:
H. Sedin - 95
D. Sedin - 95
Kesler - 70
Burrows - 60
Booth - 60
Kassian - 40
Higgins - 40
Hansen - 40
Schroeder - 30
if Horvat makes it - 40

TOP 9 LOW (team won't make playoffs):
H. Sedin - 60
D. Sedin - 60
Kesler - 50
Burrows - 35
Booth - 30
Kassian - 10
Higgins - 15
Hansen - 20
Schroeder - 10
Horvat does not make team

TOP 6 HIGH:
Edler - 60
Hamhuis - 45
Bieksa - 45
Garrison - 40
Tanev - 15
Weber - 15
if Corrado makes it - 15

TOP 6 LOW (team won't make playoffs):
Edler - 30
Hamhuis - 20
Bieksa - 20
Garrison - 20
Tanev - 0
Weber - 0
Corrado does not make it

I suspect Luongo should get at least 1 assist next season in a blowout.

 

[Dural]

It's really difficult to know how players will perform under the new coach, and what type of system he employs.

I'm expecting Hansen/Kesler to step up offensively, and Garrison/Corrado defensively.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a decline in the Sedins offensively, and Edler defensively.

 

[LiquidSnake]

Sedins will get around 150-160 between them.

Kass will get 40.

Kes (if he plays 82) will be around 65-70pts.

Burr will score 25.

Hansen will get 10 goals.

Higgins will get 15 goal.s

Garrison hits 20.

Gaunce makes the team and gets 20 points.