Proposal: Predatory RFA offer sheets from the Canucks on July 1st 2018

R0bert0 Lu0ng0

Registered User
Nov 19, 2007
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You make this thread every year and every year the answer is the same : it isn't going to happen because offer sheets are a terrible idea and they don't work.

Any sort of reasonable offer will be instantly matched.

Any offer that won't be matched will be a brutal overpayment relative to the ability of the player, both in terms of salary and assets.

No rebuilding team should ever be trading multiple #1 picks.

Pissing off rival teams for no reason is poisoning the well you drink from.

Hey, wait, this might be the year that a team has a literal future HOFer entering restricted free agency, that is worth paying high end UFA money to and losing a lot of picks, and will singlehandedly be good enough to make up for losing those picks (playing with ELC cap hits) nevermind just justifying that salary, so good in fact that we'll end up picking late in the first round anyway, and also their current team doesn't have enough room to sign them and can't trade away other players to make room. Seems plausible...........
 

Fire Benning

diaper filled piss baby
Oct 2, 2016
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Offer sheets are super rare and I don’t they’re worth it anyway, even if they work you have to give up a ton of draft picks and more cap space than the player question is probably worth, and regardless of if they work or not you’re likely going to piss off a future trading partner or have one of your guys (maybe Boeser in our case) offer sheeted back.

I think it was Burke who said a few years ago something along the lines of if soemone offer sheets one of our guys we’ll offerr sheet one of theirs for 10 years.
 

CanaFan

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Feb 19, 2010
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We also need to “reward” the team for playing hard for the last 7 games of the season too. I mean, forget the first 75 games of tepid play, we need to show Sutter that not only will we overpay an 11 goal scorer but we think he deserves an RFA as a reward for showing up for a half dozen games.

That’s just how you build a contender boys.
 

VanJack

Registered User
Jul 11, 2014
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Wow!...I knew if I was on these boards long enough, I'd actually hear the words "Benning" and "predatory' used in the same sentence. With the Canucks when it comes to trades and signings, I'm always more concerned about being the "prey" rather than the "predator".
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
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You make this thread every year and every year the answer is the same : it isn't going to happen because offer sheets are a terrible idea and they don't work.

Any sort of reasonable offer will be instantly matched.

Any offer that won't be matched will be a brutal overpayment relative to the ability of the player, both in terms of salary and assets.

No rebuilding team should ever be trading multiple #1 picks.

Pissing off rival teams for no reason is poisoning the well you drink from.

Don’t get me wrong - I definitely understand where you’re coming from, but man is this Karlsson kid exploding right now. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I think we’re literally seeing a franchise player develop right before our very eyes.

Can you imagine this guy playing alongside Pettersson or Boeser?

I don’t really care if we create bad relations with Vegas by a predatory offer sheet. They had no problem taking Sbisa from us so f*** them.

Offer Karlsson 8.5 million for 7 years and see if Vegas offers that. Vegas probably would match that offer, but if they don’t, I think Karlsson is worth it. 25 years old, 43 goals, and is looking like a clutch player if these playoffs are of any indication.
 

coolboarder

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Mar 4, 2010
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I just think that the compensation rate is just too high for any team to attempt any RFA signing unless his name is McDavid. That has long passed but you get the idea which player is worth the risk. Any UFA signing is overrated nowadays because most young players is signed for a long term until he is 30 and any signing over 30 tend to be on a downside of his career than upswing. John Tavares is not even 30 and he is worth the UFA signing as he is still young and entering the prime of his career. So this example of UFA pool is very rare in calibre of this player which is reason why the Canucks should go after him than players like Doughty or Karlsson as they will be entering 30 and is on downswing of his career. It is very rare for players in early 30's or mid-30's to be every effective in all situations.
 

Cancuks

Former Exalted Ruler
Jan 13, 2014
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Vegas would match and Karlsson wouldn't sign it anyway. If you want to sign an RFA wait till next season and make an offer to Brayden Point. TB will be hardpressed to match anything over 8, given Kucherov's upcoming payday and their other big tickets. Point is a guy who could score a 100 points someday.
 

Nick1219

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Mar 15, 2012
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Don’t get me wrong - I definitely understand where you’re coming from, but man is this Karlsson kid exploding right now. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I think we’re literally seeing a franchise player develop right before our very eyes.

Can you imagine this guy playing alongside Pettersson or Boeser?

I don’t really care if we create bad relations with Vegas by a predatory offer sheet. They had no problem taking Sbisa from us so **** them.

Offer Karlsson 8.5 million for 7 years and see if Vegas offers that. Vegas probably would match that offer, but if they don’t, I think Karlsson is worth it. 25 years old, 43 goals, and is looking like a clutch player if these playoffs are of any indication.
Cam Atkinson scored 35 goals last year as a 27 year old. What would you have paid him if he was available last year?

Columbus just re-signed him mid season and it costed 5.8x7 so the Canucks would’ve theoretically had to offer quite a bit more so let’s say 7x7 to pry him away.

That would require a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

Would you still do that today?

There’s just so much potential for it blowing up in your face between the draft picks becoming elite talents especially with the lottery system as it is today. Not to mentioning putting crosshairs on your back throughout the league. All of that while counting on that player to actually keep progressing and being worth the insane premium you just paid for.

Long story... no. Just no. Not high end talent.
 
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coolboarder

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Vegas would match and Karlsson wouldn't sign it anyway. If you want to sign an RFA wait till next season and make an offer to Brayden Point. TB will be hardpressed to match anything over 8, given Kucherov's upcoming payday and their other big tickets. Point is a guy who could score a 100 points someday.
I wouldn't go for Karlsson.
 

me2

Go ahead foot
Jun 28, 2002
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That could very well be true. However - Karlson is 25 years old. Players at 25 are far more likely to trend upwards or stay the course rather than regress (think - Sedins’ and Näslund). Karlson + Boeser would likely be a dangerous first line, while a Horvat lead second line would likely be formidable as well.


You really think he's going to shoot 23-24% every year?
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
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Cam Atkinson scored 35 goals last year as a 27 year old. What would you have paid him if he was available last year?

Columbus just re-signed him mid season and it costed 5.8x7 so the Canucks would’ve theoretically had to offer quite a bit more so let’s say 7x7 to pry him away.

That would require a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

Would you still do that today?

There’s just so much potential for it blowing up in your face between the draft picks becoming elite talents especially with the lottery system as it is today. Not to mentioning putting crosshairs on your back throughout the league. All of that while counting on that player to actually keep progressing and being worth the insane premium you just paid for.

Long story... no. Just no. Not high end talent.

Great post.

Thank you for the feedback.
 

LickTheEnvelope

Time to Retool... again...
Dec 16, 2008
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I believe Karlsson had a career season and will regress next year. I don't think he's worth that kind of salary or compensation. Might as well keep the picks and offer Tavares a max contract. At least you know what kind of player he'll continue to be.

This all day long. Tavares will get max offers from a bunch of teams and we'll see what he does.

The Canucks make basically no sense what so ever for him but you never know.
 

elitepete

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Jan 30, 2017
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Jim f***ing Benning does not have the nuts nor the brain to snatch away a player at a good price using an offersheet.
 

Charles Bushman

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Apr 22, 2018
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Vegas would match and Karlsson wouldn't sign it anyway. If you want to sign an RFA wait till next season and make an offer to Brayden Point. TB will be hardpressed to match anything over 8, given Kucherov's upcoming payday and their other big tickets. Point is a guy who could score a 100 points someday.
Why do you think he wouldn’t sign it?

Im not sure I’d make the offer but I’m pretty sure he would sign it.
 

Zippgunn

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May 15, 2011
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I believe Karlsson had a career season and will regress next year. I don't think he's worth that kind of salary or compensation. Might as well keep the picks and offer Tavares a max contract. At least you know what kind of player he'll continue to be.

Yeah because that worked with Messier...
 

Horse McHindu

They call me Horse.....
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Giving away high draft picks definitely sounds like a great strategy for a team in dire need of a rebuild.

I see your side of the coin, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not sure if you’ve fully considered the other side of the coin (and for the record, I myself likely wouldn’t do an RFA offer sheet to Karlsson since I’m a bit leery about his abnormally high shooting percentage, along with the fact that acquiring Karlsson without a match would cost us an arm and a leg).

Here’s the part where I disagree with you however.......and it has nothing to do with RFA offer sheets.

The part that I disagree with you and many others on here, is this idea or notion that a rebuilding team trading picks for a young proven core player is somehow sacrilegious.

If Karlsson could be had *without* an RFA offer sheet, I would absolutely be willing to trade first rounders for him. Take a look at the Canucks’ history of 1st round picks.....even during the times we struggled. How many first round picks, or any of our picks scored 43 goals and were absolute clutch when it mattered most? Not very many right? On top of that, Karlsson is 25! It’s not like he’s a veteran that wouldn’t be around for when the Canucks got good again.

While people on here equate trading two 1st round picks to trading Henrik Sedin and Brock Boeser, the more likely scenario is that trading two first round picks would be the equivalent of trading Cody Hodgson and Jake Virtanen.........for a 25 year old dude that can score 43 goals and plays awesome in the clutch.

The “fear of loss” mindset on here never ceases to amaze me at times.
 
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PuckMunchkin

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I see your side of the coin, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not sure if you’ve fully considered the other side of the coin (and for the record, I myself likely wouldn’t do an RFA offer sheet to Karlsson since I’m a bit leery about his abnormally high shooting percentage, along with the fact that acquiring Karlsson without match would cost us an arm and a leg).

Here’s the part where I disagree with you however.......and it has nothing to do RFA offer sheets.

The part that I disagree with you and many others on here, is this idea of notion that trading picks for a young proven core player is somehow sacrilegious.

If Karlsson could be had *without* an RFA offer sheet, I would absolutely be willing to trade first rounders for him. Take a look at the Canucks’ history of 1st round picks.....even during the times we struggled. How many first round picks, or any of our picks scored 43 goals and were absolute clutch when it mattered most? Not very many right?

While people on here equate trading two 1st round picks to trading Henrik Sedin and Brock Boeser, the more likely scenario is that trading two first round picks would be the equivalent of trading Cody Hodgson and Jake Virtanen.........for a 25 year old dude that can score 43 goals and plays awesome in the clutch.

There are other things to consider. If you make an offer sheet to Karlsson that Vegas can't match you are paying 40 goal scorer money for a 40 goal scorer (one who I fully expect wont be a 40 goal scorer next year, but that is besides the point).

Impact ETC players are crucial on a playoff team. If you look at the teams still in the cup hunt, they either have impact ETC players: Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Guentzel etc. OR they have contracts that are just amazing for the team like Forsberg at 6mil / year, Roman Josi at 4mil / year (yes, he is signed for 2 more years at the same caphit we just signed Gudbranson to, try not to think about that for too long.)

TLDR;
With the current compensation rules in place you really need to have an actual team that you can enhance with the poached RFA, and arguably even then you will be paying a kings ransom, instead of it being a valid way to build.
 

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