Proposal: Predatory RFA offer sheets from the Canucks on July 1st 2018

[Horse McHindu]

With so much cap space, posters on here have talked about the idea of making huge short terms offers to UFA’s such as Tavares, Carlson, Kane, Green, etc.

However - I was wondering if it would be worth our time to make huge short term RFA offer sheets to some RFA’s on July 1st. Jacob Trouba is a name that comes to mind. If Pettersson is destined to be a winger, then guys like William Nylander and William Karlson might also be nice.

Normally - an RFA offer sheet is almost always matched by the other team (which is why we don’t see it very often), but the Canucks have huge cap space this year, and it looks like there will be a few teams that will be uptight against the cap.

Given Toronto’s upcoming cap crunch, would they be able to match an insane RFA offer for William Nylander? What about Winnipeg for Jacob Trouba?

Yes, the Canucks would have to surrender picks for those guys, but would it be worth it for what would be a key core player?

Click to read more...

 

[Cancuks]

Won't happen. Canucks can't afford to be giving up a potential #1 overall next season, especially with the draft in Vancouver. With our luck it would be the year they win the lottery.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

Old school boys don't like when others don't play nicely in the sandbox.

How does the compensation boil down again?

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Having proven himself to be a vicious shark of a trader in deals with other gms, Benning now boldly moves into the tumultuous waters of offer sheets! What could possibly go wrong?

*narrator voice* As it turns out, a lot could go wrong, and it did.

 

[clunk]

You're asking the definition of a 'prey general manager' to turn into a 'predatory general manager'. Sorry, our GM would lay on his back and let his throat get ripped out if any predatory GM, such as Steve Yzerman, told him to.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Won't happen. Canucks can't afford to be giving up a potential #1 overall next season, especially with the draft in Vancouver. With our luck it would be the year they win the lottery.

True, but how likely is it that we’d get number one overall?

If we don’t get #1 overall, then how likely is it that our #1 pick will be better than guys like William Nylander, William Karlson, or Jacob Trouba in the long run?

I cant help but think that a guy like Nylander or Karlson would fit like a glove with Pettersson. I also can’t help but wonder as to how much Trouba would address that giant hole on our right side D.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Old school boys don't like when others don't play nicely in the sandbox.

How does the compensation boil down again?

Good point, but wouldn’t the anti-Benning crowd on here actually like that? Think about it. If the anti-Benning crowd on here dislikes Benning because they think he makes bad trades, but the “old school GM’s” decide to shun Benning and not trade with him for making RFA offers, wouldn’t that be a benefit to us? (No more trades for Benning since he’d be shunned).

 

[Horse McHindu]

Having proven himself to be a vicious shark of a trader in deals with other gms, Benning now boldly moves into the tumultuous waters of offer sheets! What could possibly go wrong?

*narrator voice* As it turns out, a lot could go wrong, and it did.

Benning offers a predatory offer to an RFA. The opposing team either matches (which puts them in cap hell), or we get a young proven core player. If said opposing team matches and then offers a trade proposal, Benning can either accept or deny (which I’m guessing is the part that you fear.....Benning accepting a bad offer).

 

[Horse McHindu]

You're asking the definition of a 'prey general manager' to turn into a 'predatory general manager'. Sorry, our GM would lay on his back and let his throat get ripped out if any predatory GM, such as Steve Yzerman, told him to.

Hopefully, Benning would say ‘no’ to GM’s that matched his RFA offers and then offered him a bad deal. I think Benning would, but the anti-Benning crowd on here obviously feel otherwise.

 

[Cancuks]

Any of those guys would likely require compensation of 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd. I'll take my chances with the draft any day. Not to mention you'd be severely overpaying those players as well. $7.8 to $9.8 million/year. I'm not against offer sheets, but I'd be targeting lesser players that require no compensation or up to a 2nd round pick and a $3.9 salary level.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Benning offers a predatory offer to an RFA. The opposing team either matches (which puts them in cap hell), or we get a young proven core player. If said opposing team matches and then offers a trade proposal, Benning can either accept or deny (which I’m guessing is the part that you fear.....Benning accepting a bad offer).

Hey...remember a guy called Steve Bernier?

 

[Horse McHindu]

Hey...remember a guy called Steve Bernier?

Yes. We made a predatory offer to the Blues for Backes. Blues matched. Blues made a predatory offer in retaliation towards Steve Bernier. Canucks matched. Canucks were able to easily move on from Steve Bernier at a later time. No harm no foul.

On the flip side of being the victim of predatory RFA offer sheets, we get compensated in the form of what most people at HF/Canucks love.....picks!

 

[Horse McHindu]

Any of those guys would likely require compensation of 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd. I'll take my chances with the draft any day. Not to mention you'd be severely overpaying those players as well. $7.8 to $9.8 million/year. I'm not against offer sheets, but I'd be targeting lesser players that require no compensation or up to a 2nd round pick and a $3.9 salary level.

I see where you’re coming from, but I just think of it in terms of probability (I.e. the “probability” that we’d draft a guy that’s better than someone like William Karlson). Two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd sounds like a lot, but take a look at the Canucks’ history.

How many of our own 1st round picks over the past 25+ years have been better than Nylander/Karlsson/Trouba?

The twins, Kesler, Boeser, and perhaps Pettersson. That’s it. Especially in the case of William Karlsson, how many Canucks’ draft picks or even players have netted 43 goals? Not a whole lot.

What if Pettersson prefers wing over Center? The Canucks would then be back to Square one in terms of needing a center.

Dahlen-Karlsson-Pettersson......could be a hell of a line.....especially if you have a Horvat/Boeser line complementing that.

 

[Cancuks]

I believe Karlsson had a career season and will regress next year. I don't think he's worth that kind of salary or compensation. Might as well keep the picks and offer Tavares a max contract. At least you know what kind of player he'll continue to be.

 

[Horse McHindu]

I believe Karlsson had a career season and will regress next year. I don't think he's worth that kind of salary or compensation. Might as well keep the picks and offer Tavares a max contract. At least you know what kind of player he'll continue to be.

That could very well be true. However - Karlson is 25 years old. Players at 25 are far more likely to trend upwards or stay the course rather than regress (think - Sedins’ and Näslund). Karlson + Boeser would likely be a dangerous first line, while a Horvat lead second line would likely be formidable as well.

Plenty of options however. If the Canucks want more of a sure thing, then they can opt for Trouba.

A large part of me just feels that it might be in the best interests of the Canucks to get another “guaranteed” young core player for the here and now, rather than praying and waiting for a pick to pan out.

As far as defense goes, an addition of Trouba would allow for someone like Demko to have an easier time adjusting to the NHL. If other young defensemen develop, you can then finally explore the idea of moving Tanev without risking serious depth damage to the D.

RFA’ing someone like Trouba, along with drafting someone like Boqvist/Bouchard/Dobson, would give us a solid young core back there (One of Boqvist/Bouchard/Dobson could replace Gudbranson when the time is right).

 

[Horse McHindu]

As far as Tavares goes, I’d love to have him (I’d do 14 million * 4 years for him, and 6 million * 2 years for Mike Green), but I suspect that Tavares’ #1 priority is going to a current playoff contender. I think this guy craves playoff hockey. On the flip side, 56 million in 4 years is nothing to queef at.

 

[Charles Bushman]

Stay the course and keep the picks.

If there is a guy you like that might only cost a 2nd rounder and the team he plays for is up against the cap maybe have a look at it. I’m not not sure what guys are out there like that, haven’t done any research.

I think the threshold is 3.9 million. Either way hang onto the first especially with the draft here in 2019. Benning doesn’t strike me as a shark, more of a big guppy with a lot of bryll cream in his hair.

 

[Peter10]

No team that is as bad as the Canucks should ever consider to make an offersheet for a high end guy. As stated above, to even give it the slightest chance of not being matched you will have to give up a compensation of at least the 2019 1st, 2020 1st, along with a 2nd and a 3rd rounder. For some of the top RFAs you may even have to go to 4 first round pick territory but even with "just" the 2 firsts its insane. You could end up giving away Hughes + Lafreniere/Byfield/Holtz for Trouba or Karlsson.

Did you even see how Ottawa ended up with the Duchesne trade? That would be not even half as bad as a successfull offersheet from the Canucks

 

[Charles Bushman]

Guys I might look at to offer 3.925 million and only get dinged for a 2nd rounder.

Brandon Montour
Josh Morrissey
Robby Fabbri

I think all of these teams match though. Ducks are pretty tight to the cap though. Blues may go hard on Tavares so they could have issues as well. Cant see the Jets let Morrissey go after developing him for five years.

 

[Peter10]

I think all of these teams match though.

That is pretty much the problem and also a reason why you dont really see offer sheets anymore. Its not necessarly collusion between the teams, it just doesnt make a whole lof sense in most cases. Most offers would get matched anyway as the draft pick compensation is not good enough to offset losing the player and in the other cases the salary you would have to offer for it not being matched just isnt worth the player you would be getting - in terms of cap hit and draft picks to give up.

 

[Hit the post]

One of the few things this management crew does right is drafting. One of the NUMEROUS things this management crew does wrong is pro scouting.

I'd be against ANYTHING this management crew does that relies on that pro scouting (picking which player to give an offer sheet to) and removes tools to use for the amateur scouting (eg., picks).

Why 'go all in' on things the stooges do wrong while 'folding' on things they do right?

 

[justafan22]

Guys I might look at to offer 3.925 million and only get dinged for a 2nd rounder.

Brandon Montour
Josh Morrissey
Robby Fabbri

I think all of these teams match though. Ducks are pretty tight to the cap though. Blues may go hard on Tavares so they could have issues as well. Cant see the Jets let Morrissey go after developing him for five years.

I think the blues might let fabbri walk if you do that TBH

 

[krutovsdonut]

the only way a team will let a player walk from an rfa offer is if the compensation looks better. otherwise, the downside of encouraging future rfa offers is far worse than the cap space pain of matching.

 

[MS]

You make this thread every year and every year the answer is the same : it isn't going to happen because offer sheets are a terrible idea and they don't work.

Any sort of reasonable offer will be instantly matched.

Any offer that won't be matched will be a brutal overpayment relative to the ability of the player, both in terms of salary and assets.

No rebuilding team should ever be trading multiple #1 picks.

Pissing off rival teams for no reason is poisoning the well you drink from.

 

[Charles Bushman]

the only way a team will let a player walk from an rfa offer is if the compensation looks better. otherwise, the downside of encouraging future rfa offers is far worse than the cap space pain of matching.

I would never go after a big dog. These guys never move anyways. I proposed three mid range guys who you could make the 3.9 million offer to. I think the teams would match but at least this way you are only out a second round pick. Better use of a second round pick than including them in trades (Sutter, Gudbranson) or pissing them away for junk like Linden Vey.

Morrissey I like in particular.