Speculation: Power Play Discussion

[surixon]

One way for the coaches to help solve it would be to tell Laine to move around more.

Its hard for him to mive around much when the puck is coming to him from one location. In our set up all he can do is move in a 10 to 15 foot radius depending on where Wheeler is on the opposite side of the ice. He moves to far and there is no passing lane for Wheeler to use. He essentially has to mive with Wheeler to keep cross seam lane open. It's the same reason why Scheifele barely moves as well in the slot, he needs to move with Wheeler to keep that lane open.

Our PP would likely see much more movement and switches if there was more then one qb using multiple points of attack.

Laine moves as much as he needs to keep the seam pass open. Blaming him for not moving enough is quite comical based on the PP design.

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[Krauser]

He shot nearly 30% on the PP in 17-18.. His other 3 years he's been in the 14-15% range. I don't have the PP shot stats handy (on mobile atm) but IIRC he shooting volume and shot quality hasn't changed much. Buff being gone does hurt, but to the tune of cutting your sh% in half basically?

Has anyone ever shot anywhere close to 30% on the PP for a career? Especially with most shots coming from distance, that kind of success seems impossible to sustain.

Ovechkin's HREF advanced stats page says he's shooting 15% on the PP over his career (225 PP goals on 1501 PP shots). No one can reasonably be expected to double that.

 

[DRW204]

Well, yeah, Laine's shot being less good makes the powerplay less effective. But do you feel like the powerplay was working well except our shots weren't going in? Our powerplay has been awful; more than half the time it seems like we're unable to even get set up, and Wheeler is getting caught a lot on the wall and giving up possession. These are much bigger problems than Laine's shot not being 100% dialed in.

As for him "standing and waiting" yeah, the staticness of the power play is also a problem. It's a problem for coaches to solve.

this past year our PP def took a step back as it was 15th in the NHL. I think alot of this had to do with the drastic downgrade of nearly every facet of hockey from Buff to Pionk. Buff had a bigger threat of a shot, was better at zone entries, was a better passer, and was better at holding the zone. Id like to see ehlers on the PP instead of KC. I think Ehlers can do everything KC can do on the PP, and additionally be the primary puck carrier into the zone. A skill where he is basically in the same tier with McDavid in, that's how good he is.

but in 18-19 our PP was ranked 4th, and that was with Laine shooting 15% on the PP, along with Buff being gone and a combo of Morrissey and Trouba playing his spot. Laine's shooting % was 12% lower comparing 17-18 and 18-19 but our PP was a tad better.

Our PP could still hum at a high % with Laine's shot not being at 27% like it was in 17-18.

 

[tbcwpg]

Well, I certainly agree that it doesn't seem like Laine has been getting very good coaching, but I don't think that was your intended point?

My intended point is that Laine moved before, has stopped, and is scoring less as a result. Unless you think a potential superstar player needs to be told he shouldn't stand around?

 

[tbcwpg]

Its hard for him to mive around much when the puck is coming to him from one location. In our set up all he can do is move in a 10 to 15 foot radius depending on where Wheeler is on the opposite side of the ice. He moves to far and there is no passing lane for Wheeler to use. He essentially has to mive with Wheeler to keep cross seam lane open. It's the same reason why Scheifele barely moves as well in the slot, he needs to move with Wheeler to keep that lane open.

Our PP would likely see much more movement and switches if there was more then one qb using multiple points of attack.

Laine moves as much as he needs to keep the seam pass open. Blaming him for not moving enough is quite comical based on the PP design.

Part of the issue is Wheeler has only one place to go with his pass.

I'm not arguing that the PP isn't pretty bad and that coaching is a part of it, but it's a little tiresome of this attitude that Laine is doing absolutely nothing wrong and it's only the incompetence of the coaching staff that he hasn't hit 50 goals yet. He has some things in his game that he needs to improve upon himself to do that, and part of that is not standing still on the power play.

 

[DRW204]

Has anyone ever shot anywhere close to 30% on the PP for a career? Especially with most shots coming from distance, that kind of success seems impossible to sustain.

Ovechkin's HREF advanced stats page says he's shooting 15% on the PP over his career (225 PP goals on 1501 PP shots). No one can reasonably be expected to double that.

I don't think so. that's why i think something's gotta give in terms of him getting back to that range of PP goals. 1 year at 27%, and 3 years in 14-15% range. so what's a reasonable expectation for him going forward?

just did a quick check:

Pasta has been at 22-25% the past two seasons
Draisaitl has been at 23-25% the past two seasons
Point was at 39% in 18-19! and 21% this past year

but i am unsure if their shots are coming at a similar distance as laine's. so hard to make an adept comparison. i think Pasta's might be but unsure of the other two.

but i am not too worried tbh. Laine's prowess on the PP has helped open things up for Scheifele and is one of the reasons the PP was top 5 from 2017 - 2019. It took a step back this year like i mentioned in the post above, but it wasn't as bad as it used to be pre-Laine

 

[Jack722]

My intended point is that Laine moved before, has stopped, and is scoring less as a result. Unless you think a potential superstar player needs to be told he shouldn't stand around?

I don't really understand your point. Are you implying that "a potential superstar" has decided that he should stand around? Is that supposed to be less ridiculous than the idea that it's part of some predecided scheme or intended way the powerplay is supposed to function?

From my viewings it looks as if Laine has like.... five meters or so of ice to work with, and it does seem to me that he's probably "supposed" to stay in that spot to score from there. I really doubt it's his idea, but hey.

 

[tbcwpg]

I don't really understand your point. Are you implying that "a potential superstar" has decided that he should stand around? Is that supposed to be less ridiculous than the idea that it's part of some predecided scheme?

I'm saying that, in the speed of the game, he may be focusing on getting the great shot and less on putting himself in that position to score. The scheme is obviously not working - but part of the reason it's not working is Laine, just as it's Pionk, or Wheeler, or Scheifele, or Connor. I get it - you think everyone is holding Laine back but himself.

It's more ridiculous that he'd really like to move around more but he's been told he can't move and that he's decided to follow that to the T and not put some own agency in his own game, than it is that he's having some mental lapses and not reading the game as well as he could be.

 

[JetsUK]

PP would be better with Ehlers in Wheelers spot. Zone entry would improve significantly and there would actually be a threat of a shot opposite Laine. Teams can cheat on Laine and Scheifele now because Wheeler isn't a threat to score, so everyone stands around while Wheeler tried to force a pass.. Need a lefty on that side and I'd love to see Ehlers in there as a threat to shoot, while also solving zone entry problems. Our PP is far too dump and chase heavy

Hard yes. Been saying this for ages, and a while posted some vids of Ehlers scoring from that spot. He's got a better release and hands in tight than Wheeler, enters the zone with possession more reliably than anyone not named McDavid, and is enough off a scoring threat off the rush that he can draw the D and pass off or take the shot on or offwing.

I do seem to recall that PM had offered him a place on PP1 last year and he refused, but not sure if it was the Wheeler or the KC spot. He'd be an improvement in either spot, I think. As would more movement from the D. Or Wheeler, or Laine, although he's connected by invisible string to Wheeler on the PP. Or anybody. It's the hockey equivalent of the Statue Game, without the prize at the end.

Basically, PP1 is a mess, and the fanbase breathes a gigantic collective sigh of relief when PP2 come on for their customary 15-2os, and instantly gain the zone and start zinging the puck around. They don't score a lot, without a designated finisher and a patchwork point, but at least they look like they're on a PP and not like they're in a deep hypnotic state relieved only by the end of the man "advantage."

 

[DRW204]

I do seem to recall that PM had offered him a place on PP1 last year and he refused, but not sure if it was the Wheeler or the KC spot. He'd be an improvement in either spot, I think. As would more movement from the D. Or Wheeler, or Laine, although he's connected by invisible string to Wheeler on the PP. Or anybody. It's the hockey equivalent of the Statue Game, without the prize at the end.

completely forgot about this. i think it was Wheeler spots, and Ehlers said he did not want to be on his off-wing. does that ring a bell?

 

[gojetsgo]

My intended point is that Laine moved before, has stopped, and is scoring less as a result. Unless you think a potential superstar player needs to be told he shouldn't stand around?

you think laine is just randomly going to stop doing what he's had success doing in the past. you don't think this has to do with the huge shot from the point we just lost, teams use to have to try to take away buff's shot from the point as well as scheifs in the slot and laine from the dot and it opened up so much ice for us, now teams will just give up pionks shot especially since we don't have any net front presence and focus on taking away scheifs and laines shot

 

[surixon]

Part of the issue is Wheeler has only one place to go with his pass.

I'm not arguing that the PP isn't pretty bad and that coaching is a part of it, but it's a little tiresome of this attitude that Laine is doing absolutely nothing wrong and it's only the incompetence of the coaching staff that he hasn't hit 50 goals yet. He has some things in his game that he needs to improve upon himself to do that, and part of that is not standing still on the power play.

He absolutely needs to improve on things but he is doing what he's asked to do on the PP imo. I think the whole setup needs to be scrapped and redrawn.

Where Wheeler has to go with the puck is based on where he is and where his stick is. Given he is going cross ice through 5 or 6 players he has probably a 2 foot window to move the puck. Its essentially Laine's job to find that window. It's an incredibly specialized set up that requires specialized movement by Laine. Him moving around aimlessly doesn't help Wheeler make that pass.

I think Laine has done a very good job of mirroring Wheeler on the PP which is why our PP has had a good amount of success since 2017.

Now what I would like to see is more down low play incorporating Stastney/Conner making cross crease passes and walking it to the front of the net with Laine coming in hard from the his spot to get that pass or Barry the rebound.

 

[DRW204]

My intended point is that Laine moved before, has stopped, and is scoring less as a result. Unless you think a potential superstar player needs to be told he shouldn't stand around?

i just find a bit hard to believe and wrap my head around that a coaching staff really needs to be constantly telling a 4 year NHL vet and supposed super-star to move his feet. there's video and audios of maurice and teammates yelling at him to move his feet over the years so i don't think it is something that is completely going uncalled.

 

[Jack722]

Hard yes. Been saying this for ages, and a while posted some vids of Ehlers scoring from that spot. He's got a better release and hands in tight than Wheeler, enters the zone with possession more reliably than anyone not named McDavid, and is enough off a scoring threat off the rush that he can draw the D and pass off or take the shot on or offwing.

I do seem to recall that PM had offered him a place on PP1 last year and he refused, but not sure if it was the Wheeler or the KC spot. He'd be an improvement in either spot, I think. As would more movement from the D. Or Wheeler, or Laine, although he's connected by invisible string to Wheeler on the PP. Or anybody. It's the hockey equivalent of the Statue Game, without the prize at the end.

Basically, PP1 is a mess, and the fanbase breathes a gigantic collective sigh of relief when PP2 come on for their customary 15-2os, and instantly gain the zone and start zinging the puck around. They don't score a lot, without a designated finisher and a patchwork point, but at least they look like they're on a PP and not like they're in a deep hypnotic state relieved only by the end of the man "advantage."

We played for uhh... two games? With Ehlers in Wheels' spot and our powerplay looked great and dynamic, so I really do agree that this is the best singular 'fix' we could make.

 

[Ducky10]

Some non-rhetorical questions for you: Do you really think that was a pointful question in the context of this discussion? Do you agree with LowLefty's implication that a big reason our powerplay has struggled is that Laine has forgotten how to score?

Yes I do think it was a valid point
@LowLefty made in the question.

Yes I do think part of the reason our PP struggled was Laine having difficulty adjusting to having to change his positioning.

There are a myriad of reasons the PP struggled. It’s more than fair to say that was one of those reasons.

 

[surixon]

I'm not suggesting aimless movement, I'm suggesting Laine fails to recognize sometimes that he's not in a great spot to receive a pass from Wheeler and he needs to get in a spot where the pass is a higher percentage pass to make. It's not all the time, but he does it more than he did in 17-18.



I don't assume Laine fans are all Finnish. Your username has far too few of the letter A in it to be Finnish. It's also not a "gotcha", it's that, when it's suggested that Laine has some holes in his game, that it's Maurice's fault, or Wheeler's fault, or Scheifele's fault, or Little's fault.

I think there are some things that Laine can do outside of coaching to improve, and reading the game on the PP is one of those things. I think it's a lot more complex than "Maurice just has to tell him and he'll do it and that's holding him back". As noted above, it's not about just moving around with no purpose, it's about making a read on the play as it happens in real time. You can coach that after the fact but that's something on the player to recognize as it happens.

Well you are seeing things that I haven't seen then. I think he moved more when there was more of an option of a down low play or when we had Buff likely due to the other teams playing Buff harder thus creating more lanes.

I think a lack of movement is also due to how other teams are now defending our Pp.

Anyhow hopefully he gets his shot dialed back in next year. I would also like to see more of him get the puck on the half boards and walk it in and wrist it at the net with traffic like Mackinnon does a lot in Colorado.

 

[cbcwpg]

Has anyone ever shot anywhere close to 30% on the PP for a career? Especially with most shots coming from distance, that kind of success seems impossible to sustain.

Ovechkin's HREF advanced stats page says he's shooting 15% on the PP over his career (225 PP goals on 1501 PP shots). No one can reasonably be expected to double that.

It's a tricky stat, because the better you are the more you will play on the PP, the more shots you will take, the lower your PP SH% will be.

Example: There are 3 players with career PP shooting % over 30%. You may not have even heard of these guys...

Bryan Rust ( 308GP - 10 PPG on 32 shots - 31.2%)
Matt Pettinger ( 422GP - 13 PPG on 42 shots - 30.9%)
Yanni Gourde ( 254GP - 13 PPG on 42 shots - 30.9%)

Filtering it by players that have taken at least 100 shots on the PP you get:

Patrick Eaves ( 633GP - 38 PPG on 129 shots - 29.4%)
Andrei Kostitsyn ( 398GP - 34 PPG on 133 shots - 25.5%)
Joel Ward ( 726GP - 30 PPG on 119 shots - 25.2%)

Hell, Matthew Perreault ( 36 PPG on 186 shots ) has a better shooting % on the PP than Steven Stamkos ( 155 PPG on 821 shots ).

I would say your best PP guys end up around 15% - 22% in their careers.

 

[Ducky10]

Its hard for him to mive around much when the puck is coming to him from one location. In our set up all he can do is move in a 10 to 15 foot radius depending on where Wheeler is on the opposite side of the ice. He moves to far and there is no passing lane for Wheeler to use. He essentially has to mive with Wheeler to keep cross seam lane open. It's the same reason why Scheifele barely moves as well in the slot, he needs to move with Wheeler to keep that lane open.

Our PP would likely see much more movement and switches if there was more then one qb using multiple points of attack.

Laine moves as much as he needs to keep the seam pass open. Blaming him for not moving enough is quite comical based on the PP design.

One of the main issues is the lack of movement across the blue line from the point. Something we had much more of from Buff. Washington does this much more, which allows Ovie to shift up and down more and makes it harder for the PK to keep track of him as closely.
That said, Laine’s movement could be better regardless, that includes when he has the puck on his stick as well.

The PP struggleS in a number of ways, it needs new life. Laine doesn’t get a pass in my book though.

 

[surixon]

One of the main issues is the lack of movement across the blue line from the point. Something we had much more of from Buff. Washington does this much more, which allows Ovie to shift up and down more and makes it harder for the PK to keep track of him as closely.
That said, Laine’s movement could be better regardless, that includes when he has the puck on his stick as well.

The PP struggleS in a number of ways, it needs new life. Laine doesn’t get a pass in my book though.

Well nobody gets a pass but I put more blame on the coaches for the set up then the individual players. There was no coaching adjustments at last year and quite frankly Moe's dismal record with regards to his special teams performances over the years points to it being much more of a coaching issue.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Laine is absolutely the least of the issue on the PP. I say that while agreeing he hasn't been capitalizing on his chances as well the last couple seasons.

The issue on the PP is that there is one play. Get it to Wheeler and he can try to go across ice or to the middle. That's it. That is literally our entire PP. It's pathetic.

 

[DRW204]

It's a tricky stat, because the better you are the more you will play on the PP, the more shots you will take, the lower your PP SH% will be.

Example: There are 3 players with career PP shooting % over 30%. You may not have even heard of these guys...

Bryan Rust ( 308GP - 10 PPG on 32 shots - 31.2%)
Matt Pettinger ( 422GP - 13 PPG on 42 shots - 30.9%)
Yanni Gourde ( 254GP - 13 PPG on 42 shots - 30.9%)

Filtering it by players that have taken at least 100 shots on the PP you get:

Patrick Eaves ( 633GP - 38 PPG on 129 shots - 29.4%)
Andrei Kostitsyn ( 398GP - 34 PPG on 133 shots - 25.5%)
Joel Ward ( 726GP - 30 PPG on 119 shots - 25.2%)

Hell, Matthew Perreault ( 36 PPG on 186 shots ) has a better shooting % on the PP than Steven Stamkos ( 155 PPG on 821 shots ).

I would say your best PP guys end up around 15% - 22% in their careers.

but those are miniscule shot totals comparatively to Laine. a 1 goal swing in rust's case has roughly 3% change in his sh%. Laine for instance a +/-1 goal difference to his career totals has not even a 0.5% change in sh%. I think 17-18 might be the outllier in terms of pp sh% for Laine

 

[Psych0dad]

Has anyone ever shot anywhere close to 30% on the PP for a career? Especially with most shots coming from distance, that kind of success seems impossible to sustain.

Ovechkin's HREF advanced stats page says he's shooting 15% on the PP over his career (225 PP goals on 1501 PP shots). No one can reasonably be expected to double that.

There's always a first for everything.

Other teams realized if you allow him to take shots from distance, that it's just as dangerous as any other player shooting from the slot, when he takes a point shot. Now the opponents know he's the main threat to score even when others are closer to the net. They focus on blocking the lane to Laine and let Wheeler take shots from the slot because it's much less of a risk. Now if the right side half boards guy was a better shot, then they could actually use that extra space they allow by using 2 guys to block the cross ice. Scheifele could work better in that spot.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Our PP struggled or was pathetic to the tune of 15th in the league last year. The previous 3 years we were 18th in 2016,5th in 2017 and 4th in 2018.

Some of that is to Laine's struggle to score last season but a lot of that is due to Buff being gone too.

People make it out to be a train wreck but it isn't far from it

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Our PP struggled or was pathetic to the tune of 15th in the league last year. The previous 3 years we were 18th in 2016,5th in 2017 and 4th in 2018.

Some of that is to Laine's struggle to score last season but a lot of that is due to Buff being gone too.

People make it out to be a train wreck but it isn't far from it

Are you okay with our team having a middle of the road power play when our supposed 'strength' is our offense?

It's pathetic because we fail to adapt. Wheeler isn't a threat off the side wall, Pionk isn't a threat up top, Connor is a good player but behind the goal line he's not a threat either. It's become so easy to defend.

Now combine it with our PK and we can call our special teams as a whole pathetic lol.

 

[JetsUK]

completely forgot about this. i think it was Wheeler spots, and Ehlers said he did not want to be on his off-wing. does that ring a bell?

It does, and that might be it -- I'll try to find it.

Ehlers has played off-wing plenty but he may well prefer not to play it on the PP.

EDIT: Here it is -- from a game against SJ, from noted Jets and PoMo fan Paul Friesen. Article also contains a moan from Roslo:

Roslovic wants respect of a veteran ... Ehlers declines job on first power-play unit ... Lowry says he won't change | Winnipeg Sun

THANKS, BUT NO THANKS
Another interesting note coming out of the San Jose post-game yak sessions was the revelation from Maurice that Ehlers turned down a spot on the No. 1 power-play unit.
“Nikolaj didn’t want to be there,” Maurice said. “That’s not a negative thing. He would prefer to run downhill on his natural side on the other unit.”
A day earlier, Maurice had said Ehlers would take a front-line spot on the No. 1 unit as a reward. He’s the team’s leading scorer, after all.
“And then the power-play guys talked and Nikky came back and said, ‘I prefer to be on the other unit on my natural side.’ It happens,” Maurice said. “Everybody by the time they get to the NHL is usually fairly specific about what they’re good at on the power play.
“Not a lot of guys want to work the slot, anyway. That’s the dark hole there.”
The Jets, ranked in the bottom third in the NHL, went 0-for-2 with the extra man against the Sharks.

Unclear to me why Ehlers would have been placed in the slot, and not surprised he turned it down, and sounds like PoMo wasn't either. Sorta like my youngest offering me a bite of the Twizzler he's been using as a milkstraw during Sweetie Saturday lunch.