Speculation: Potential Waiver Claims: Right Defense

[henchman21]

If Makar and Manson are injured, how is that one guy moving over? That would be 3 D every night playing their off side unless Malinski and Nate Clurman (our only RD in the minors) are the call-ups.

I know you know a lot about hockey and watch it a lot more than I do, but I seriously doubt you know that much about all 19 players on the list. I wonder if we have different definitions of "can skate" and "can move the puck". I'm talking about 7th D levels of both of those things. Somewhere between JMFJ and Kurtis MacDermid. With the rest of our D core, all we need is someone who is not a liability out there, then pair them with Byram or G or even Hunt depending on how deep we're going with injuries.

As for team not letting those guys waste away, I think you are heavily overrating how smart NHL teams are. Also, some teams simply don't have the spots available because they already have established NHL players taking those spots. Let's imagine, say, Brady Keeper (I pretty much chose someone at random) fits my description. He doesn't produce any real offense but (let's imagine), he kills penalties, plays tough, can skate reasonably well, and makes a good first pass. Who is he beating in Montreal for a roster spot given that description? Or how about a guy like Alex Petrovic? He just put up a season with 27 points, so presumably he can move the puck a bit. If he kills penalties and can skate, he ticks all the boxes, but I can understand why he'd still be in the AHL if teams see him as an AHL veteran at age 31, given he hasn't even been called up for a game since 2019. To be clear, I've never seen these particular players in action, but replace those names with others on the list and we can probably come up with scenarios where they'd fit what I'd be looking for.

Lastly, yes the Avs move those picks all the time, and I'm sure most of them will be gone eventually, but why waste these picks when there are a selection of potentially useful players on very reasonable contracts available for free?

You're just jumping to worst case with the injuries. It could happen and guys would be playing their off sides, but teams don't plan on the worst case like that. If Makar is out for the season, the Avs are likely screwed anyway. 5-10 games of that in the regular season, doesn't really matter all that much. If that is the difference in the season, then the Avs simply aren't good enough.

This is being made out like a huge deal, but Vegas right now has 1 RD in their top 4 and only 2 in their top 6. Florida is starting the season without a single RD and only has 2 in their top 4. Dallas has 2 and they'll be middle and bottom pairing (if Lundqvist even makes the top 6). This is a pretty common thing around the league to only have 2 regulars.

You can doubt my knowledge all you want, I'm wrong a lot. I feel I have a good grasp on who these players are. Petrovic is a bad hockey player. He's a middle pairing AHL guy where his NHL skill is completely gone (and there wasn't much there to begin with). If he plays more than 5 games for you, you're in bad shape. Keeper? That guy is barely an AHL player today. Partially not his fault, but he's not a good skater upon his return from a broken tibia and fibia. It was a particularly bad spiral fracture. He didn't look like an AHL guy last year. IMO Montreal is taking a chance that it took a while for him to recover and he can be an every night sort of guy in Laval.

Waivers is not free... this is a misconception. There is a cost of transfer, there are salary implications, there are roster implications, and with the Avs' situation there are some significant cap complexities. If they want one of these guys, they'd actually be better off trading for them AFTER they clear waivers.

 

[MarkT]

You're just jumping to worst case with the injuries. It could happen and guys would be playing their off sides, but teams don't plan on the worst case like that. If Makar is out for the season, the Avs are likely screwed anyway. 5-10 games of that in the regular season, doesn't really matter all that much. If that is the difference in the season, then the Avs simply aren't good enough.

This is being made out like a huge deal, but Vegas right now has 1 RD in their top 4 and only 2 in their top 6. Florida is starting the season without a single RD and only has 2 in their top 4. Dallas has 2 and they'll be middle and bottom pairing (if Lundqvist even makes the top 6). This is a pretty common thing around the league to only have 2 regulars.

You can doubt my knowledge all you want, I'm wrong a lot. I feel I have a good grasp on who these players are. Petrovic is a bad hockey player. He's a middle pairing AHL guy where his NHL skill is completely gone (and there wasn't much there to begin with). If he plays more than 5 games for you, you're in bad shape. Keeper? That guy is barely an AHL player today. Partially not his fault, but he's not a good skater upon his return from a broken tibia and fibia. It was a particularly bad spiral fracture. He didn't look like an AHL guy last year. IMO Montreal is taking a chance that it took a while for him to recover and he can be an every night sort of guy in Laval.

Waivers is not free... this is a misconception. There is a cost of transfer, there are salary implications, there are roster implications, and with the Avs' situation there are some significant cap complexities. If they want one of these guys, they'd actually be better off trading for them AFTER they clear waivers.

I'm not jumping to worst case. I'm literally assuming the Avs get two injuries to their defense (which is likely) and the two guys who get hurt are the ones entering the season with lingering injuries (Makar and Manson). How is that worst case?

I'm not trying to make right vs left a huge deal. We're talking about a 7th/8th D here, so it's not a huge deal. I simply want to take our depth from almost non-existent in terms of the type of player I think we need to decent. I remember two seasons ago when EJ was injured, all season long I felt strongly the team really needed a big tough bottom pair right D. With EJ gone I think we're going to miss what he brought. I'm simply hoping one of these guys can be a poor man's EJ.

I wasn't trying to suggest that Keeper or Petrovic were the guys I want. I picked them nearly at random. If you have this level of knowledge about all 19 guys, then I apologize. When I made this thread, I was particularly hoping for insight like that paragraph. I can now take Keeper and Petrovic off the list. Anyone else you think I should remove?

Trading after waivers is certainly a possibility, but all the costs you're talking about are shared with costs associated with a trade, no?

 

[McMetal]

The unfortunate truth is that the D we're all looking for is going to be Kurtis MacDermid. Nobody here likes that, but that was the Avs plan last year and it's almost certainly going to be their plan this year, too. They got him to play that 7/8 D role, and that's how they're going to use him. There's no real reason to believe the Avs have another plan in motion.

 

[MarkT]

The unfortunate truth is that the D we're all looking for is going to be Kurtis MacDermid. Nobody here likes that, but that was the Avs plan last year and it's almost certainly going to be their plan this year, too. They got him to play that 7/8 D role, and that's how they're going to use him. There's no real reason to believe the Avs have another plan in motion.

Bednar has said that they now see MacDermid as a forward.

 

[henchman21]

I'm not jumping to worst case. I'm literally assuming the Avs get two injuries to their defense (which is likely) and the two guys who get hurt are the ones entering the season with lingering injuries (Makar and Manson). How is that worst case?

I'm not trying to make right vs left a huge deal. We're talking about a 7th/8th D here, so it's not a huge deal. I simply want to take our depth from almost non-existent in terms of the type of player I think we need to decent. I remember two seasons ago when EJ was injured, all season long I felt strongly the team really needed a big tough bottom pair right D. With EJ gone I think we're going to miss what he brought. I'm simply hoping one of these guys can be a poor man's EJ.

I wasn't trying to suggest that Keeper or Petrovic were the guys I want. I picked them nearly at random. If you have this level of knowledge about all 19 guys, then I apologize. When I made this thread, I was particularly hoping for insight like that paragraph. I can now take Keeper and Petrovic off the list. Anyone else you think I should remove?

Trading after waivers is certainly a possibility, but all the costs you're talking about are shared with costs associated with a trade, no?

I'm saying losing all the right shots and everyone having to play on their offside is as bad as it can get for the Avs there. There are worse cases overall for the team. On the right side of the D, it can't though.

I'm not saying remove people off the list. It is good for people to have something to guide them. I'm of the opinion that outside of Kovacevic, Miromanov, and Lindstrom none of them are worth a claim. I doubt Kovacevic gets waived and I doubt it with Lindstrom too. For that physical, penalty killer type... really only Kovacevic fits. Miromanov is a converted forward who has all the warts that entail (I do think you can get a NHL player out of him though). Lindstrom isn't really physical and he's not a guy I'd want killing penalties. He's best as an extra D that you hope to get 12 minutes out of and not hurt you. If you extend him beyond that or put him in key roles he starts to hurt.

Taking the role out of the equation, Gawanke is the most interesting to me. He's a wild man and makes MacDonald look like a sound, forward thinking decision maker. But I love his game and what he brings. He'd fail miserably here though.

Trading after waivers can have less of a salary impact, but depends on the contract. The real key is the gained waivers exemption where a player can be stuffed in the minors and off NHL payroll and cap until needed. Then there is the 10 game/30 day rule that can be utilized to keep a player around for depth instead of having to waive them as soon as the team can't keep under the cap.

 

[Richard88]

I'm saying losing all the right shots and everyone having to play on their offside is as bad as it can get for the Avs there. There are worse cases overall for the team. On the right side of the D, it can't though.

I'm not saying remove people off the list. It is good for people to have something to guide them. I'm of the opinion that outside of Kovacevic, Miromanov, and Lindstrom none of them are worth a claim. I doubt Kovacevic gets waived and I doubt it with Lindstrom too. For that physical, penalty killer type... really only Kovacevic fits. Miromanov is a converted forward who has all the warts that entail (I do think you can get a NHL player out of him though). Lindstrom isn't really physical and he's not a guy I'd want killing penalties. He's best as an extra D that you hope to get 12 minutes out of and not hurt you. If you extend him beyond that or put him in key roles he starts to hurt.

Taking the role out of the equation, Gawanke is the most interesting to me. He's a wild man and makes MacDonald look like a sound, forward thinking decision maker. But I love his game and what he brings. He'd fail miserably here though.

Trading after waivers can have less of a salary impact, but depends on the contract. The real key is the gained waivers exemption where a player can be stuffed in the minors and off NHL payroll and cap until needed. Then there is the 10 game/30 day rule that can be utilized to keep a player around for depth instead of having to waive them as soon as the team can't keep under the cap.

Thanks for the points you're making, interesting reading. Though I still think a waiver pickup would be nice it does make a lot of logical sense to trade for someone after waivers for the reasons you mentioned.

There's also something to be said for not wasting cap space and/or tradeable assets (which are very limited) on half-measures. Perhaps the Avs would be best off keeping their powder dry until Jan/Feb instead of throwing away a pick on someone who would only play a small role until then anyways and then have to spend additional assets on a proper solution.

 

[henchman21]

Thanks for the points you're making, interesting reading. Though I still think a waiver pickup would be nice it does make a lot of logical sense to trade for someone after waivers for the reasons you mentioned.

There's also something to be said for not wasting cap space and/or tradeable assets (which are very limited) on half-measures. Perhaps the Avs would be best off keeping their powder dry until Jan/Feb instead of throwing away a pick on someone who would only play a small role until then anyways and then have to spend additional assets on a proper solution.

There are a ton of ways to split it. All are probably elements of correct. Personally I’d wait.

 

[MarkT]

Ty Emberson was claimed by San Jose, so that's one promising one off the list.

 

[Richard88]

If the Avs wanted a RHD off waivers they'd probably be more likely to trade for them with a late pick after they clear so they can maintain cap flexibility given that they're already at only $525k in capspace with a 22 man roster.

That said, if they expect Francouz to be out gor a long time then placing him on LTIR would create enough space to add a replacement goalie along with a RHD off waivers if both are around $1m aav. They may however still want to keep some capspace unused to cover possible overages or keep some open for the TDL so that may be an unlikely route still, but Francouz on LTIR would at least give them the option of doing that should there be a waiver Dman who is too appealing to pass up.

 

[Bone Breaker]

not a RHD but Geertsen is on waivers... just saying...

 

[Jayevs]

Phil Myers?

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Regula and Kovacevic seem to have the best advanced stats (height and weight). Let's go get them both.

 

[Cypher]

They'll probably just make due with what they have and sign Ethan Bear when he's healthy around December.

 

[MarkT]

If the Avs wanted a RHD off waivers they'd probably be more likely to trade for them with a late pick after they clear so they can maintain cap flexibility given that they're already at only $525k in capspace with a 22 man roster.

That said, if they expect Francouz to be out gor a long time then placing him on LTIR would create enough space to add a replacement goalie along with a RHD off waivers if both are around $1m aav. They may however still want to keep some capspace unused to cover possible overages or keep some open for the TDL so that may be an unlikely route still, but Francouz on LTIR would at least give them the option of doing that should there be a waiver Dman who is too appealing to pass up.

I think you need to rethink your calculation, since the waiver claimed defenseman would be that 22nd man. I ran a quick Armchair GM and I have a league min contract at 4C and MacDermid as the extra forward, with 6 D and Frankie still on the team. That leaves 1.3m to add a RD, and if you want to add a goalie on top of that, you would need to put Frankie on LTIR. This would give you plenty to work with, since any replacement goalie would never be on the roster at the same time as Frankie. Once Frankie is on IR, that would actually leave us enough space to go up to 23 players if we want, including anyone we claim on waivers.

Spoiler: Armchair GM

 

[BobRossColton]

Any defensemen we're still watching out for?

 

[MarkT]

Any defensemen we're still watching out for?

I've updated the first post. The remaining names from the list who have not gone through waivers yet are:
- Dylan Coghlan (CAR)
- Gustav Lindström (MTL)
- Johnathan Kovacevic (MTL)
- Brayden Pachal (VGK)
- Daniil Miromanov (VGK)

Also, Philip Kemp (EDM) and Cale Fleury (SEA) are currently on waivers.

 

[Richard88]

I've updated the first post. The remaining names from the list who have not gone through waivers yet are:
- Dylan Coghlan (CAR)
- Gustav Lindström (MTL)
- Johnathan Kovacevic (MTL)
- Brayden Pachal (VGK)
- Daniil Miromanov (VGK)

Also, Philip Kemp (EDM) and Cale Fleury (SEA) are currently on waivers.

Kovacevic isn't going to get waived

 

[MarkT]

Kovacevic isn't going to get waived

I don't think so either. I only included him on the original list because so many people he were talking about him as a potential waiver claim.

 

[Richard88]

Avs should claim Lindström

 

[MarkT]

Avs should claim Lindström

I'd probably go with Coghlan, but I haven't watched any of the available players much.

 

[Richard88]

I'd probably go with Coghlan, but I haven't watched any of the available players much.

Could just put in a claim for both, and if they're both successful you just waive one the next day again.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Could just put in a claim for both, and if they're both successful you just waive one the next day again.

Or you waive McDermy that day while you're on the phone with the league, keep whoever is better, and waive the other in a week.

Are these guys both stay at home heavy pk types?

 

[Richard88]

Or you waive McDermy that day while you're on the phone with the league, keep whoever is better, and waive the other in a week.

Are these guys both stay at home heavy pk types?

Neither are heavy PK types but are solid all-round depth Dmen. Not great at anything but not terrible at anything either, just very vanilla especially Lindström. Coghlan has decent puck-moving skill but that's the only thing that stands out. With the way the Avs are set up in their top 5D though that would be fine for a 6/7 D.

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

Three Defensemen On Waivers That Could Fit On The Avalanche

On Sunday afternoon, the Colorado Avalanche demoted Sam Malinski, leaving them with just six defensemen on the roster. After practice, Jared Bednar said that the team will take just six defensemen to Los Angeles. Moments later, when asked if the team would carry just 21 players for the road...

coloradohockeynow.com

 

[CobraAcesS]

Neither are heavy PK types but are solid all-round depth Dmen. Not great at anything but not terrible at anything either, just very vanilla especially Lindström. Coghlan has decent puck-moving skill but that's the only thing that stands out. With the way the Avs are set up in their top 5D though that would be fine for a 6/7 D.

Thanks, I say let Girard pick then.