Potential markets for potential NHL expansion beyond 32

[gstommylee]

Everyone still making fun of Saskatoon I see...

You will see a downsized NHL (all pro sports) anyway.... so why not!

- Has 10 years of desired ownership with On Ice/John Graham and the other minority owners who are continually in the NHL's ear, and in good standing. Let's remember back in 2011-2013 On Ice Management had a very firm and serious offer in with the league/team.(Last time phoenix was in trouble)

- City Is currently purchasing downtown land for new arena with a budget of 375-425M, Arena similar to Videotron in QC. I would also suspect this project is bumped up faster, it was about scheduled for 7-8 years from now, but with the world the way it is, it's a good project for 4-5 years from now.

- Sasktel center (15,200) is suitable for temporary 3-6 years of play. Same size/bigger then Winnipeg and has hosted multiple NHL exhibition games regularly. Lease to another hockey team is allowed as long as it's the NHL, otherwise the Blades(WHL) hold the rights, so no AHL is possible. Rush (NLL) have pretty much soldout +/- 500 seats, for 12-16 games a year for the last 5 years. The rush also outsell the entire league in jersey/merchandise. (yes that's the entire NLL)

NHL isn't going to put a team there.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

so who's moving? Arizona isn't flordia has 8 years left on lease.

Ottawa is frequently talked about as a relocation candidate but the NHL has implied they would be opposed to Ottawa relocating. There really is no logical relocation candidate.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Ottawa is frequently talked about as a relocation candidate but the NHL has implied they would be opposed to Ottawa relocating. There really is no logical relocation candidate.

I know new ownership has committed to Phoenix, but I don’t see how Coyotes still aren’t a relocation candidate.

 

[StreetHawk]

I know new ownership has committed to Phoenix, but I don’t see how Coyotes still aren’t a relocation candidate.

Give the new owner time to see if he can actually get a new arena built. It will have to be done with all private funds as the Suns got the local government to pay $160 mill to renovate the TSRA.

and I doubt another city wants to spend $250 mill plus to build a 3rd 18k arena to compete with TSRA and GLendale arena.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

I know new ownership has committed to Phoenix, but I don’t see how Coyotes still aren’t a relocation candidate.

....because they have new ownership committed to Phoenix. That by itself is enough...

... but if that isn't enough for you, it is because the NHL and BOG is dedicated to the market. It is one where, if operated correctly, the franchise will be extremely successful. Look at the improvement in under 2 years when they weren't out of the playoff race by Christmas. The NHL and BOG have shown they are dedicated to markets they put a lot of time into and ones where they can be successful. Look up Nashville and Balsillie. Heck, look up Arizona and Balsillie. They're on the right track now, finally, after far too long.

What the heck makes you think they are a relocation candidate? They've invested so much time and energy into the market, the franchise has finally turned the corner, finally has the person in charge it should have had in 1996, and they have an extensive history of not doubling and tripling down on markets they believe they have future in.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

....because they have new ownership committed to Phoenix. That by itself is enough...
.

I disagree. Words are cheap.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

I disagree. Words are cheap.

Arizona is that committed, BK WHY would they spend money on buying their top affiliate to move it instate.... if they are relocated again, so no hockey in Arizona, is the end result

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

I disagree. Words are cheap.

Words are cheap. Actions aren't. Meruelo has done everything he has set out to do so far. He has done everything he has said he wanted to do at this point in time. And then read the rest of what I said which shows how they're not a relocation candidate due to the actions of the NHL and BOG.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Arizona is that committed, BK WHY would they spend money on buying their top affiliate to move it instate.... if they are relocated again, so no hockey in Arizona, is the end result

Disclaimer: I am agree with you, but not for this reason. Meruelo did not own the team when the Tucson Roadrunners were relocated. So that shows absolutely zero commitment on Meruelo's part... you know, because he didn't do that action. I thought with your knowledge of franchise histories you would know that. Especially since the Springfield replaced their lost team with your beloved Portland Pirates.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Disclaimer: I am agree with you, but not for this reason. Meruelo did not own the team when the Tucson Roadrunners were relocated. So that shows absolutely zero commitment on Meruelo's part... you know, because he didn't do that action. I thought with your knowledge of franchise histories you would know that. Especially since the Springfield replaced their lost team with your beloved Portland Pirates.

the premise is the same though, BD....

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

the premise is the same though, BD....

Not when the entire premise is about the dedication and wealth of the new owner... It's like bringing up the Mariners and comparing them to the Pirates. It's two completely different beasts. You wouldn't use one to justify anything about the other.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

Not when the entire premise is about the dedication and wealth of the new owner... It's like bringing up the Mariners and comparing them to the Pirates. It's two completely different beasts. You wouldn't use one to justify anything about the other.

not exactly:

Spectra has been involved in every aspect of Portland's hockey history, whether they were actively involved in owning the current team, building the arena and etc... where the disconnect lies is how each franchise was treated publically as to why those franchises aren't there, whether it was legal, financial, or the trustees butting in where they probably shouldn't have is the primary reasoning and why you don't see the issues between Spectra and the current tenant because they own and/or operate as one single entity......

it's also why, if not the primary reason as has been pointed out when the current franchise was announced in 2018.... that Philadelphia really has no interest in affiliating here, just as an ownership interest, and why the Rangers through Spectra's connections running Hartford's business ops for MSG, that's why the Rangers are here.

that model, BD, Changed in the summer of 1997-98, almost 5 years after Thomas and Joyce Ebright elected to relocate the Baltimore Skipjacks from there to Portland. also, the decision made in May of 1991, that Maine Hockey Partners, LLC accepted the proposal to relocate what Spectra has started in 1977, and why the Flyers left and sold the franchise to the Devils in 1982. When New Jersey left to take the original franchise to Utica, by 1987-88, a second franchise had to be awarded with Boston's affiliation in tow(details are still indeterminate as to whether Boston had a dormant AHL Franchise) to begin in 1988-89, until the relocation announcement in 1991, to this day the Providence Bruins. the same thing repeated again in 2015/2016, only that time even the affiliate was caught unawares, nevermind the fans or anyone else in this state as @wildcat48 knows all too well....

the only difference was Arizona had the option to buy the Springfield Falcons if it ever came to that.... the current Thunderbirds ownership is not the same ownership group involved in either the Indians (now Utica Comets) or the Falcons (now Tucson) as I'm sure the Worcester fanbase can expound on that if they so choose to.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

not exactly:

Spectra has been involved in every aspect of Portland's hockey history, whether they were actively involved in owning the current team, building the arena and etc... where the disconnect lies is how each franchise was treated publically as to why those franchises aren't there, whether it was legal, financial, or the trustees butting in where they probably shouldn't have is the primary reasoning and why you don't see the issues between Spectra and the current tenant because they own and/or operate as one single entity......

it's also why, if not the primary reason as has been pointed out when the current franchise was announced in 2018.... that Philadelphia really has no interest in affiliating here, just as an ownership interest, and why the Rangers through Spectra's connections running Hartford's business ops for MSG, that's why the Rangers are here.

that model, BD, Changed in the summer of 1997-98, almost 5 years after Thomas and Joyce Ebright elected to relocate the Baltimore Skipjacks from there to Portland. also, the decision made in May of 1991, that Maine Hockey Partners, LLC accepted the proposal to relocate what Spectra has started in 1977, and why the Flyers left and sold the franchise to the Devils in 1982. When New Jersey left to take the original franchise to Utica, by 1987-88, a second franchise had to be awarded with Boston's affiliation in tow(details are still indeterminate as to whether Boston had a dormant AHL Franchise) to begin in 1988-89, until the relocation announcement in 1991, to this day the Providence Bruins. the same thing repeated again in 2015/2016, only that time even the affiliate was caught unawares, nevermind the fans or anyone else in this state as @wildcat48 knows all too well....

the only difference was Arizona had the option to buy the Springfield Falcons if it ever came to that.... the current Thunderbirds ownership is not the same ownership group involved in either the Indians (now Utica Comets) or the Falcons (now Tucson) as I'm sure the Worcester fanbase can expound on that if they so choose to.

You wrote a lot of that for nothing since you entirely missed my point. You're comparing the value of something, in this case Meruelo's actions, with something he didn't do and was not responsible for, in this case the relocation of Springfield to Tucson.

....lot's of nice writing tho....

 

[MNNumbers]

Tuscon doesn't have one bit of influence on whether the Yotes are a relocation candidate or not. The amount of money it takes to relocate an AHL affiliate is small enough to disappear when compared to half a year's worth of NHL losses. So, there is really nothing to see there.

As far as the Coyotes...
Let's say it this way. By some accounting (and it's a private company, so all we have to go on is a few small pieces of information), there could be about 350M worth of debt and/or losses resting on the franchise. What I mean by that is the accumulated losses since BK add up to about that, by some reckonings. One must always consider the idea that, if losses continue to accumulate at that rate, within a few years there will be more losses than any other prospective owner will want to take on, in exchange for owning the team. In other words, did Meruelo actually PAY anything? Or, did he just cover the losses of the past years, and take on the debt? At some point, there won't be anyone willing to do that any more. If there are options in other markets which are better, Mereulo and NHL are going to want to sell and relocate before that point is reached. That's simply a numbers analysis.

What we don't know is the actual numbers of how the beginning of 19-20 looked in comparison to other years. There are reasons to think that things were ramping up. Would that simply mean 'smaller yearly losses?' If so, I would venture a guess that there is no market left to move to which is going to make a yearly profit, so small losses are no reason to relocate. There is no place better to move to.

As far as the arena situation, I remain very confident that the team doesn't actually need a new arena, and that no new arena by itself would increase revenues for the team very much. The real desire with the arena is the management rights. The Yotes are the only NHL team with no arena management rights presently. What they want is a cut of arena management. It's a 2nd income for the organization. Location becomes very important in that case. If a new arena were near to downtown, or to the more monied suburbs, then the new arena will compete very well with TSRA for music and other events. And, that's where the money is that the team wants. That's the reason they keep talking about an arena.

Sum all of that together and you get something like this:
The team is not a relocation candidate right now. Five years from now, it MIGHT be. But, the fact that there seems to be a slight uptick in local revenues, coupled with the diminishing number of markets to which to move, means that it's as likely they stay as it is they leave.
Also, one should take into consideration that, for teams with smaller local revenues, the more games are cancelled the better. The problem for markets like AZ and FL is that the local revenue per game is so much more for the Toronto and Montreal and NYRangers markets, that the little guys can't keep up. If no one is making money, no one has to pay players, and the bottom line looks much nicer for the little guys. This also sets 'relocation alert' to be further into the future.

 

[TheLegend]

Tuscon doesn't have one bit of influence on whether the Yotes are a relocation candidate or not. The amount of money it takes to relocate an AHL affiliate is small enough to disappear when compared to half a year's worth of NHL losses. So, there is really nothing to see there.

As far as the Coyotes...
Let's say it this way. By some accounting (and it's a private company, so all we have to go on is a few small pieces of information), there could be about 350M worth of debt and/or losses resting on the franchise. What I mean by that is the accumulated losses since BK add up to about that, by some reckonings. One must always consider the idea that, if losses continue to accumulate at that rate, within a few years there will be more losses than any other prospective owner will want to take on, in exchange for owning the team. In other words, did Meruelo actually PAY anything? Or, did he just cover the losses of the past years, and take on the debt? At some point, there won't be anyone willing to do that any more. If there are options in other markets which are better, Mereulo and NHL are going to want to sell and relocate before that point is reached. That's simply a numbers analysis.

What we don't know is the actual numbers of how the beginning of 19-20 looked in comparison to other years. There are reasons to think that things were ramping up. Would that simply mean 'smaller yearly losses?' If so, I would venture a guess that there is no market left to move to which is going to make a yearly profit, so small losses are no reason to relocate. There is no place better to move to.

As far as the arena situation, I remain very confident that the team doesn't actually need a new arena, and that no new arena by itself would increase revenues for the team very much. The real desire with the arena is the management rights. The Yotes are the only NHL team with no arena management rights presently. What they want is a cut of arena management. It's a 2nd income for the organization. Location becomes very important in that case. If a new arena were near to downtown, or to the more monied suburbs, then the new arena will compete very well with TSRA for music and other events. And, that's where the money is that the team wants. That's the reason they keep talking about an arena.

Sum all of that together and you get something like this:
The team is not a relocation candidate right now. Five years from now, it MIGHT be. But, the fact that there seems to be a slight uptick in local revenues, coupled with the diminishing number of markets to which to move, means that it's as likely they stay as it is they leave.
Also, one should take into consideration that, for teams with smaller local revenues, the more games are cancelled the better. The problem for markets like AZ and FL is that the local revenue per game is so much more for the Toronto and Montreal and NYRangers markets, that the little guys can't keep up. If no one is making money, no one has to pay players, and the bottom line looks much nicer for the little guys. This also sets 'relocation alert' to be further into the future.

Agree with the principal of everything posted above.

AHL teams can be moved around like cars. The fact that so many western NHL teams were able to purchase and/or move their AHL teams at the same time is evidence of that.

There’s no real evidence in how Meruelo acquired the Coyotes. Even Forbes doesn’t know and yet people will freely accept Mike Ozanian’s cocktail napkin estimates as gospel.

Also with arena management situation. It’s all about the revenue streams these days. When Ellman bought the Coyotes they were never looked at as a revenue generator directly. It was all about Westgate (and it would have remained the same had they been able to get rooted in Scottsdale).

We’ll simply have to wait it out a little longer. The five year estimate is a good one.

 

[gstommylee]

As far as the arena situation, I remain very confident that the team doesn't actually need a new arena, and that no new arena by itself would increase revenues for the team very much. The real desire with the arena is the management rights. The Yotes are the only NHL team with no arena management rights presently. What they want is a cut of arena management. It's a 2nd income for the organization. Location becomes very important in that case. If a new arena were near to downtown, or to the more monied suburbs, then the new arena will compete very well with TSRA for music and other events. And, that's where the money is that the team wants. That's the reason they keep talking about an arena.

Things aren't going to get better if they remain where they are at in glendale. Coyotes aren't getting any non NHL revenue which is the bigger problem then getting butts into seats. Having a new arena in which they control the non arena revenue is a big deal and have it be in an location where the fan base can get there quicker especially after work.

 

[StreetHawk]

Things aren't going to get better if they remain where they are at in glendale. Coyotes aren't getting any non NHL revenue which is the bigger problem then getting butts into seats. Having a new arena in which they control the non arena revenue is a big deal and have it be in an location where the fan base can get there quicker especially after work.

Any new arena in that region will need to be built using private funds. Phoenix is putting in $160 million to renovate the TSRA. Does the area really need another 18k arena for non sporting events?

 

[gstommylee]

Any new arena in that region will need to be built using private funds. Phoenix is putting in $160 million to renovate the TSRA. Does the area really need another 18k arena for non sporting events?

There was a couple eastside offers that mentioned by the coyotes but the virus ordeal delayed that conversation and that would be more towards Scottsdale side of phoenix I believe. I doubt the arena will be Phoenix proper anyways.

 

[StreetHawk]

There was a couple eastside offers that mentioned by the coyotes but the virus ordeal delayed that conversation and that would be more towards Scottsdale side of phoenix I believe. I doubt the arena will be Phoenix proper anyways.

But it’s still another 18k arena that will be what like 30 minutes from the TSRA? How many concerts, speaking events, and other events will there be to go around In that area?

 

[gstommylee]

But it’s still another 18k arena that will be what like 30 minutes from the TSRA? How many concerts, speaking events, and other events will there be to go around In that area?

Also a whole lot closer to the coyotes fan base and Coyotes would actually be making money from non sporting events. Remember the main reason why NBA Sonics left to OKC cause Key arena was too small for the team to actually make money long term.

 

[StreetHawk]

Also a whole lot closer to the coyotes fan base and Coyotes would actually be making money from non sporting events. Remember the main reason why NBA Sonics left to OKC cause Key arena was too small for the team to actually make money long term.

How many Non Sporting Events will they get with the TSRA nearby? You get the 41 home games for the Coyotes, plus another 3/4 pre-season games. that's what you are guaranteed, plus however many playoff games.

What other cities/counties in the USA have a pair of 18K stadiums that are of equal quality to one another that compete for non sporting events? Would the numbers really make sense for either a city to help fund it or for private investors to put their money into building the arena?

 

[MNNumbers]

How many Non Sporting Events will they get with the TSRA nearby? You get the 41 home games for the Coyotes, plus another 3/4 pre-season games. that's what you are guaranteed, plus however many playoff games.

What other cities/counties in the USA have a pair of 18K stadiums that are of equal quality to one another that compete for non sporting events? Would the numbers really make sense for either a city to help fund it or for private investors to put their money into building the arena?

Interesting question....if there is a new arena, then GRA basically dies. Other places with 2 arenas...
Mpls/St Paul
Miami (although they are further apart)
LA/Anaheim
Detroit had 2 arenas, but I think the Pistons are moving in with the Wings
NY of course...

Not very many.

 

[TheLegend]

Any new arena in that region will need to be built using private funds. Phoenix is putting in $160 million to renovate the TSRA. Does the area really need another 18k arena for non ckeyesporting events?

Phoenix Metro is composed of (2020 population estimates)......

• Phoenix (1,703,078)
• Mesa (527,666)
• Chandler (268,675)
• Scottsdale (262,222)
• Gilbert (258,935)
• Glendale (254,500)
• Tempe (194,218)
• Peoria (180,219)
• Surprise (142,049)

That's 9 of the top 10 cities in the state (Tucson sits at #2 with 553,871). Then there's Avondale, Goodyear, Buckeye, Tolleson,...... and so on.

Then add the Salt River and Gila River communities.

There's more to Phoenix...... than just Phoenix. If Glendale was able to get GRA and State Farm Stadium built, the four cities above them are all eastern cities, and more than capable of taking an arena project on if the numbers are right. And they won't care one bit about what happens to Glendale..... or even Phoenix for that matter.