Potential markets for potential NHL expansion beyond 32

[Big Z Man 1990]

Alright, I am aware that expansion to more than 32 would not happen in the 2020s. But I feel it will happen eventually.

My top candidates for Eastern expansion are Quebec City in the Atlantic Division and Indianapolis in the Metro. Indianapolis just broke into the top 25 media markets in the US this year. But they would likely need a new arena, one that could host both the NHL team and the Pacers. Quebec City already has an arena ready.

The Western expansion has two options.

1. If the West is divided into three divisions based on time zone restrictions, possible expansion would be to Portland and another city in BC, both would join Seattle and the existing Western Canada teams (except Winnipeg) in the Northwest Division, sending Colorado to the Pacific with the California and desert teams.

2. If the West keeps its 2-division alignment, the next two expansion teams in the conference should be in the Central Time Zone, to allow Arizona to move back into the Pacific. Houston would be on board if the Rockets and Toyota Center were sold to a much wealthier owner, and who could have the resources to apply for an NHL franchise. The other team could go to either Kansas City or Milwaukee.

Click to read more...

 

[TheNeutralPresident]

Likeliness
1. Houston
2. Quebec City
3. Kansas City
4. Portland
5. Milwaukee

Cleveland and Indy are intriguing but down the list imo.

But in all seriousness I can't see the league having more than 32 anytime soon.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

But in all seriousness I can't see the league having more than 32 anytime soon.

As I said, it would not happen in the 2020s.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

For the ones suggested so far.

Indianapolis is not getting a team unless they build an arena capable of hosting hockey and have a massive population increase. Right now, they are behind other metro areas like Cleveland, Baltimore, Austin, Charlotte, and Orlando. It's a smaller major market where a NHL would have to share the market with the very popular Pacers and Colts. The NHL would much rather expand in bigger markets where they are the major player and get more visibility. Safe to say Indianapolis is never going to get a team.

Québec City is realistic because it would be the chance for the NHL and Bettman to make things right. He made a big show when he spoke of righting a wrong when True North acquired the unwanted Thrashers from the Atlanta Hawks new ownership group. It's common knowledge, even from probably owners Québecor, that the team wouldn't make money even with a long playoff run. But it would be hockey returning to where it's popular. Bettman would do it if there were no other options and still needed to expand. Which is a situation that won't happen.

Kansas City is mentioned for absolutely no good reason. Sprint Center was used by Lemieux and Bettman to force Pittsburgh to build the Penguins a publicly-funded arena. Kansas City is already a small market by the standards of the Kansas City Royals and Chiefs (source: Kansas City Royals: How John Sherman can change small market narrative, https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article57527133.html). The high price of NHL expansion teams caused Lamar Hunt Jr, the only person in Kansas City capable of buying a team, to never bid for one. The NHL purposely priced out those who can't truly afford a team, and that price is never going to go down. Kansas City is not happening.

Houston isn't happening. Fertitta is the only one in Houston who could own a team and he still couldn't afford it. Bettman and Daly had a meeting with him and told him to get lost. Count Houston out.

Portland is realistic now that Allen died, the only problem is getting someone able to afford the high cost of running the team and they would likely do well.

Milwaukee nearly got a team until the potential ownership realized the team wouldn't make money and it well-publicized that a NHL team there wouldn't make money. No money to be made, and no uber rich people willing to run it at a loss like in Winnipeg. Count Milwaukee out.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

Well I mentioned Indianapolis because they were the only market large enough to be added to the Metro without infringing on another team's territory. Columbus would block Cleveland. Washington would block Baltimore. The Hurricanes would block Charlotte. And no other market in the Eastern time zone that isn't covered by the Atlantic Division footprint is in, because they are all in the Southern US, which isn't as big on hockey.

 

[MNNumbers]

I'm not sure how anyone can really even guess at anything at the present time. How much is the public at large going to want to sit in an arena 18,000 other people? Big question.....Then, then next question is: How much money is going to be available in the way of media contracts? There are good arguments for "much more because people won't attend in person" and "less because people won't be interested in the traditional sports anymore." Who knows???

As to all the cities being named here....
Good guesses. The big question is: What's the fee going to be? If it remains near 650M, no one will buy another team. There isn't another market in North America worth that much money, including QC, especially when the Canadian dollar is as low as it is right now. Money talks. The league doesn't really need any more teams for the sake of national TV contracts. So, no reason to sell an expansion team at a discount.

It will be very interesting to see how everything falls out in a year or so....

 

[Jumptheshark]

oh look

this thread again

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Alright, I am aware that expansion to more than 32 would not happen in the 2020s. But I feel it will happen eventually.

You should probably start worrying first about how the 32 franchises that currently exist are all still solvent and in existence after this pandemic subsides before you move on to worrying about expansion - because expansion is A LONG TIME away at this point.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Well I mentioned Indianapolis because they were the only market large enough to be added to the Metro without infringing on another team's territory. Columbus would block Cleveland. Washington would block Baltimore. The Hurricanes would block Charlotte. And no other market in the Eastern time zone that isn't covered by the Atlantic Division footprint is in, because they are all in the Southern US, which isn't as big on hockey.

The NHL doesn't expand to fill the needs of specific divisions. The NHL expands to fill the needs of the league. The league doesn't work like that and has never worked like that. When they expanded to Vegas, they weren't already deciding that far ahead of time where teams like Arizona and Colorado might go to fill divisional gaps. The league expanded because it was an excellent market that they would have to themselves with a brand new arena, immensely wealthy and capable owner, the NHL would greatly benefit from the legalized betting, and it expanded the viability of the sport in another non-traditional hockey market. They weren't doing it because it would fit the Pacific division. The scheduling that keeps Arizona in the Pacific until Seattle arrives is evidence of that.

Considering we've had dozens of these types of expansion threads before, the general consensus is that considering the league has said they don't want to expand, that it is so expensive to buy a team that it requires multiple uber rich people to afford one, and that most markets are counted out by the lack of an arena, highly interested customer base, and population just to begin with, that it is not a topic worth discussing because it is not capable of being discussed.

 

[crobro]

San Diego

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Milwaukee nearly got a team until the potential ownership realized the team wouldn't make money and it well-publicized that a NHL team there wouldn't make money. No money to be made, and no uber rich people willing to run it at a loss like in Winnipeg. Count Milwaukee out.

Ehh, ownership was under the impression that the expansion fee was going to be $30 million. The NHL jacked it up to $50 million and expansion draft rules basically only allowed bottom 6 forwards and bottom pair defensemen to be taken so you’re paying $50 million for a team that’s going to be bad for several years.

It’s different now but Fiserv Forum has a really odd set up for their college tournament. I don’t know if it can be improved (I think it could be which is why it’s really weird they set it up the way they did) but I don’t know for sure. If it can, it would be a good building. If it can’t, there’s not a chance.

 

[PurpleMouse]

Realistically, any major market that is on the other big 4 league that doesn't have an NHL team could give this a go, but outside of Houston & Quebec I don't remember reading any speculation about places that have anyone interested in trying to get a team.

Non "big 4" markets- the obvious would be Quebec & Houston, Toronto area in the sense that they only have one team in other sports but could have two in the NHL, and then... maybe a city that's on a cusp of being considered a major market ala Columbus when they came into the league- Austin, Texas comes to mind. Maybe Des Moines or Omaha?

 

[alko]

Oh, a yearly thread.

This was so many times here. From every angle, even with Mexico, Europe and Bermudas.

Unfortunately, search function doest work properly now on Hfboards. So, here some topics to read, or to continue:

Source 1

Source 2

Source 3

Europe

 

[Mike in MN]

*sigh*.

On the positive side, a lot can change in the next 10 years (OP's timeline). Buildings, owners, previous teams, etc

That being said, there are some facts and factors that most likely won't change. First, rule out any metro area smaller than Denver that already has an NBA team (so, a bit over 3 million). Next, rule out any American metro smaller than Las Vegas / Nashville / Columbus (about 2 million) and any Canadian metro smaller than Winnipeg (800K- 1M-ish). What's left? That's your starter list

 

[dkitson16]

Oh, a yearly thread.

This was so many times here. From every angle, even with Mexico, Europe and Bermudas.

Unfortunately, search function doest work properly now on Hfboards. So, here some topics to read, or to continue:

Source 1

Source 2

Source 3

Europe

Yes but some people like to discuss this constantly and don't want to read through pages of material.

 

[dkitson16]

*sigh*.

On the positive side, a lot can change in the next 10 years (OP's timeline). Buildings, owners, previous teams, etc

That being said, there are some facts and factors that most likely won't change. First, rule out any metro area smaller than Denver that already has an NBA team (so, a bit over 3 million). Next, rule out any American metro smaller than Las Vegas / Nashville / Columbus (about 2 million) and any Canadian metro smaller than Winnipeg (800K- 1M-ish). What's left? That's your starter list

I like the Denver / Minneapolis rule. If your Metro is smaller and you already have NBA you probably can't support both. Sorry Milwaukee and Indy.

I'd go a bit lower with Metro US. Without any other team I think you can get by at 1 million. Buffalo and New Orleans are under that and have two teams. Raleigh-Durham was under 1 million when the Hurricanes came, though they were growing fast and have money.

In Canada your only options are Quebec and Toronto 2 or southern Ontario, though there are reasons those won't happen.

 

[dkitson16]

Well I mentioned Indianapolis because they were the only market large enough to be added to the Metro without infringing on another team's territory. Columbus would block Cleveland. Washington would block Baltimore. The Hurricanes would block Charlotte. And no other market in the Eastern time zone that isn't covered by the Atlantic Division footprint is in, because they are all in the Southern US, which isn't as big on hockey.

Baltimore is within Washington's territorial rights. Cleveland and Charlotte are within the broadcast areas, but not territorial areas (which only extend 50 miles from the city limits). NHL does like to cover regions BUT not duplicate, so that also makes them less likely. The scale of financial payoff between territorial rights and broadcast rights would also be different. But Cleveland and Charlotte already have NBA and I don't think either is large enough to support NHL.

In the Eastern Time zone I only see Quebec City, Toronto 2 / Southern Ontario and Atlanta as possible. But they all have issues to overcome. Maybe Hartford and Norfolk, but again you need arenas and owners. Indy and Cleveland are too small to compete with NBA. Cincinnati needs an arena and the NHL has no strong desire to be there with Ohio already covered.

In the Central Houston is the most likely spot, but you need an owner and an arena deal with Fertitta that works. Kansas CIty has no NBa to compete with. Austin if they get an arena and Houston is out. Maybe them? Milwaukee, is too small to compete with NBA. Long shots like Louisville? Omaha and Tulsa? Both have strong hockey history but were under 1 million in the 2010 census. Maybe now they're at 1 million?

Mountain time zone? Really only Salt Lake and their not big enough to support NHL and NBA.

Pacific? Portland is again: the NBA / too small issue. Sand Diego would work with an arena, but you're probably paying LA and Anaheim for broadcast infringement (not territorial).

If you go by TV market and not Metro area the largest markets without NHL are Houston (8), Atlanta (10), Orlando (18), Cleveland (19), Sacramento (20), Charlotte (21), Portland (22), Indy (25), Baltimore (26), San Diego (29), Salt Lake (30). So the NHL is only in 19 of the top 30.

Current NHL metros outside the top 30:
Columbus (34)
Vegas (39)
Buffalo (52)

Those are my thoughts anyway.

 

[KevFu]

Prior to the pandemic, I would have said it happens before 2030. Now, I think the pause button will be hit (although, the longer it takes for Sports not to figure out that the "only way to play is Quarantine Style," the bigger it's going to be when they DO comeback).


It's "find a western site that is not Houston" (Portland, San Antonio, other) to come with Quebec.
Then when they solve the Bell/Rogers/MLSE hurdle, Houston and GTA2 join for 36.

 

[alko]

Here some good articles.

Not surprisingly, first came from Wikipedia. There is a lot to read and think about.

And here some nice summary.

 

[HisIceness]

If we're talking about the states.

Houston. This one is pretty obvious, it's the largest metro/city/TV market w/o a franchise. I think if you ask the owners, they would say they want Houston in the league.

Atlanta. Yeah yeah failed twice, it's still a large-growing market that the league simply can't ignore forever.

Austin. I've advocated for them before. It's similar in size to Columbus and Nashville and has similar sporting dollar entertainment choices (minus NFL/NHL but NCAA Football and MLS)

San Diego?

Kansas City?

Milwaukee?

 

[gstommylee]

So where's the 650m+ $$$ for fees for each coming from if its such a great idea to expand again.

 

[HugoSimon]

Prior to the pandemic, I would have said it happens before 2030. Now, I think the pause button will be hit (although, the longer it takes for Sports not to figure out that the "only way to play is Quarantine Style," the bigger it's going to be when they DO comeback).


It's "find a western site that is not Houston" (Portland, San Antonio, other) to come with Quebec.
Then when they solve the Bell/Rogers/MLSE hurdle, Houston and GTA2 join for 36.

I disagree this league is in a reboot stage.

Everything that has come before is no longer relevant.

If someone offered up 300 mill for a team I'm sure the league would bite.

Anything to get a touch of money.

Granted a wave of relocations and contractions is more likely.

But again the league will not be turning down money this is just an absurd premise.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

I disagree this league is in a reboot stage.

Everything that has come before is no longer relevant.

If someone offered up 300 mill for a team I'm sure the league would bite.

Anything to get a touch of money.

Granted a wave of relocations and contractions is more likely.

But again the league will not be turning down money this is just an absurd premise.

There isn't going to be a wave of contractions and relocations in the NHL. The NHL isn't going to let someone like Jim Balsillie hijack a franchise and move it to someplace they don't want to be. Also the league will own a franchise if necessary to prevent contraction.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

I disagree this league is in a reboot stage.

Everything that has come before is no longer relevant.

If someone offered up 300 mill for a team I'm sure the league would bite.

Anything to get a touch of money.

Granted a wave of relocations and contractions is more likely.

But again the league will not be turning down money this is just an absurd premise.

Neither the league or a single owner is anywhere near needing to sell their franchise. Especially for a hugely discounted $300 million. Not a single market is anywhere near needing to relocate. Literally every single franchise in the entire league is on the most stable footing in history.

 

[JMCx4]

... Literally every single franchise in the entire league is on the most stable footing in history.

At least until the owners receive their next business & personal financial accounting statements.