Blue Jays Discussion: Post Non-Waiver Trade Deadline Edition

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MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Unless the deal is an overpayment I would keep Pillar. As it stands now the Jays likely need to fill two outfielder spots. Trading Pillar would make it three.

Agreed. You can't get rid of everyone and there are only so many young players coming up. Pillar is the least of this team's problems right now, as frustrating as his hitting with men on base might be.

Meh, these guys could've got us to the playoffs with bad contracts & trading away top-prospects. Instead they decided to build for the next 10 years, and have an impressive young core to work with:

Stro, Sanchez, Osuna, Travis, VGJ, Bo.

Also, if JD/Dirty/Russ/Devo were healthy all year together, this is a playoff team.

All of those guys save Bichette are AA acquisitions.

I wasn't a massive AA fan and some of his major acquisitions (Tulo, Reyes, Dickey) were awful moves at a massive future price, although he did make up for it with other hits (Donaldson, great drafting of young pitchers). But Shapiro/Atkins right now ... it's hard not to be underwhelmed. They've basically sat on their hands and brought in a bunch of old, crappy replacement-level players to fill out the roster while doing little else. JA Happ is really the only significant good move on the MLB squad.

That they haven't traded away quality prospects is a good thing ... but it's not really much of an accomplishment either.

__________

On another topic, the absurd statlines for Ramirez and Jansen at AAA are a terrific sign, as both of these players have come from absolutely nowhere in the 2nd half of the season to be likely September callups and possible young roster players for next season. Neither would have been top-30 prospects in the organization in April and now both are probably top-5 or very close.

Jansen's transformation from a guy who hit .218 in A ball in 2016 to a guy slashing .500/.591/.917 in AAA with 1 K in 44 plate appearances in 2017 is frankly astonishing.
 

canucksfan

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All of those guys save Bichette are AA acquisitions.

I wasn't a massive AA fan and some of his major acquisitions (Tulo, Reyes, Dickey) were awful moves at a massive future price, although he did make up for it with other hits (Donaldson, great drafting of young pitchers). But Shapiro/Atkins right now ... it's hard not to be underwhelmed. They've basically sat on their hands and brought in a bunch of old, crappy replacement-level players to fill out the roster while doing little else. JA Happ is really the only significant good move on the MLB squad.

That they haven't traded away quality prospects is a good thing ... but it's not really much of an accomplishment either.

The only way for the current management to have improved the team was to trade prospects and or sign big free agents. Jays already have a big salary. They already have aging pieces. Trading prospects now for players can be very risky. You could easily end up with a Tulo or Dickey scenario. Also, if the team does and it doesn't work, the team will likely be where the Phillies are and what the White Sox are doing.

I haven't liked all the moves the management group has done. And some haven't worked out. However, they have been very low risk. They have been getting prospects and are working on a quick retool.


On another topic, the absurd statlines for Ramirez and Jansen at AAA are a terrific sign, as both of these players have come from absolutely nowhere in the 2nd half of the season to be likely September callups and possible young roster players for next season. Neither would have been top-30 prospects in the organization in April and now both are probably top-5 or very close.

Jansen's transformation from a guy who hit .218 in A ball in 2016 to a guy slashing .500/.591/.917 in AAA with 1 K in 44 plate appearances in 2017 is frankly astonishing.


Jansen yes, but Ramirez wouldn't be a top 5 pitching prospect IMO let alone top 5 prospect.
 

Discoverer

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and Longenhagen finally actually goes on record on Danny's defense: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-822/

"Jansen is a solid defensive catcher, an average receiver with an average arm and a good ground game."


Which of course agrees with everything I;ve ever read about him.

I was just about to post that. Like I said earlier, the only argument I've heard against his defense was a couple other Jays fans telling me that Longenhagen said it was bad, with no further evidence provided. It's great to hear that even the one guy who was apparently down on him actually isn't.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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The only way for the current management to have improved the team was to trade prospects and or sign big free agents. Jays already have a big salary. They already have aging pieces. Trading prospects now for players can be very risky. You could easily end up with a Tulo or Dickey scenario. Also, if the team does and it doesn't work, the team will likely be where the Phillies are and what the White Sox are doing.

I haven't liked all the moves the management group has done. And some haven't worked out. However, they have been very low risk. They have been getting prospects and are working on a quick retool.

This team is supposed to be competing so they have a mandate to a) find good players and b) build quality depth.

They've done neither. Their main acquisitions (save Happ) have been mainly junk - with the Morales deal in particular looking completely brutal - and the team's depth at starting pitching, catcher, and middle infield being absolutely atrocious. And when the team has had injuries this year, the complete vacuum behind those starters has cost the team a pile of games. And this isn't something that needs 'big money signings' or 'trading top prospects' to fix. A completely washed-up Mat Latos and Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn't good enough.

So far they've made mostly bad patchwork fixes and allowed a system built mainly by the previous administration grow into a top-10 prospect pool in MLB ... while the team has fallen off the top rung of competing teams in the here and now. This is not a great feat or great management.

They may yet prove to be a good management team, but so far the early results aren't great and I don't see how anyone could take a great deal of confidence from them.

Jansen yes, but Ramirez wouldn't be a top 5 pitching prospect IMO let alone top 5 prospect.

Top-5 might be a stretch on Ramirez but he has to be a top-10 prospect at this point. He's been completely unhittable and if his arm holds up he'll be on the MLB squad next year almost certainly. Allowing 13 hits and 0 runs in 30 innings is just total domination. He looks like he'll be a high-end bullpen arm for this team very soon.

I know the standard opinion will be that guys like Greene and Maese are superior prospects because they're starters ... but I can't rate a starter struggling in A or AA over a relief pitcher destroying AAA. Greene looks like he'll be a reliever anyway and you could only dream that he'd be this dominant in 2 years if they converted him.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
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And I see Hoffman was demoted to AAA.

Maybe he'll be that rare "elite" 25yr old prospect next eyar.

Which makes little sense considering he's 3rd/4th among their starters in FIP-, and is essentially an average started based off DIPS. His batted ball data on the road also tells me he's arguably their best option in away games.

On the other hand, we can conservatively estimate that Troy Tulowitzki has provided ~34m in value for the 50m spent on him thus far.
 

metafour

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I was just about to post that. Like I said earlier, the only argument I've heard against his defense was a couple other Jays fans telling me that Longenhagen said it was bad, with no further evidence provided. It's great to hear that even the one guy who was apparently down on him actually isn't.

He's back peddling some. I saw the reports with my own eyes, he was much harsher on him in the past. Sorry, I don't have every single one of his weekly chats cataloged and mapped out for your leisure. I also know for fact that Keith Law wrote that he looked terrible in the AFL last year.

Jansen seems to be outplaying industry consensus, but that consensus was pretty consistent. It even extends to BA where they failed to rank him within their midseason Top 10 just a month ago (while they had Pentecost 5th, mind you).
 

stickty111

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Jan 23, 2017
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Tulo has been basically a disaster. Maybe that 0-21 he had before being traded told us something but reputation guy AA was too busy looking for ways to look good in front of the media.
Shapiro is doing a solid job and needs to clean up the mess left by AA.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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2013? 2014?

2014 Bottom Lineup

CF Rasmus 104wrc+, 0.9war
3B Lawrie 103wrc+, 1.8war
C Navarro 99wrc+, 2.1war
2B Kawasaki 79wrc+, 0.5war

Bench

UT Francisco 108wrc+, 0.8war
OF Pillar 92wrc+, 0.7war
IF Tolleson 91wrc+, 0.2war
C Thole 73wrc+, 0.0war

Extra Bench

UT Valencia 75wrc+, 0.5war
OF Gose 73wrc+, 1.3war
IF Goins 28wrc+, -0.6war
C Kratz 56wrc+, 0.2war


#5+ SP

Stroman 20gs, 2.8awar
Morrow 6gs, 0.0awar
McGowan 8gs, 0.0awar
Norris 1gs, 0.0awar
Hendriks 3gs, -0.2awar
 

zeke

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Which makes little sense considering he's 3rd/4th among their starters in FIP-, and is essentially an average started based off DIPS. His batted ball data on the road also tells me he's arguably their best option in away games.

On the other hand, we can conservatively estimate that Troy Tulowitzki has provided ~34m in value for the 50m spent on him thus far.

eh, he had that magical 5gm start where his K rates went through the roof higher than they've ever been anywhere, and he's been pretty much useless since.

as for Tulo's salary - he's cost less so far than Reyes would have. So we've saved money.
 

Discoverer

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He's back peddling some. I saw the reports with my own eyes, he was much harsher on him in the past. Sorry, I don't have every single one of his weekly chats cataloged and mapped out for your leisure. I also know for fact that Keith Law wrote that he looked terrible in the AFL last year.

Jansen seems to be outplaying industry consensus, but that consensus was pretty consistent. It even extends to BA where they failed to rank him within their midseason Top 10 just a month ago (while they had Pentecost 5th, mind you).

I don't know if you're thinking I was referring to you, but I definitely wasn't. I don't think I've made a single comment about Jansen's defense here before the last couple of days, and I'm confident I've never discussed it with you. I'm talking about discussions I've had elsewhere.

Regardless... I'm not disputing the existence of those reports, I'm just saying no one has ever been able to point me in their direction, and I've been curious to know the specifics and how they differ from everyone else.
 

metafour

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as for Tulo's salary - he's cost less so far than Reyes would have. So we've saved money.

You haven't "saved money". You picked up three extra years for the tradeoff of a meaningless couple mill saved per year over these past 2 seasons (its literally $2 million per year). Reyes has actually been worth more than Tulo this year.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
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This team is supposed to be competing so they have a mandate to a) find good players and b) build quality depth.

They've done neither. Their main acquisitions (save Happ) have been mainly junk - with the Morales deal in particular looking completely brutal - and the team's depth at starting pitching, catcher, and middle infield being absolutely atrocious. And when the team has had injuries this year, the complete vacuum behind those starters has cost the team a pile of games. And this isn't something that needs 'big money signings' or 'trading top prospects' to fix. A completely washed-up Mat Latos and Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn't good enough.

Is this not the same criticism AA shared prior to the team actually making the playoffs? For years people were wondering why the rotation, bullpen, and infield had little to no depth. When you are top 3-5 in man games lost there is usually a good chance your team isn't making the playoffs (unless you operate like the Dodgers).

So far they've made mostly bad patchwork fixes and allowed a system built mainly by the previous administration grow into a top-10 prospect pool in MLB ... while the team has fallen off the top rung of competing teams in the here and now. This is not a great feat or great management.

They may yet prove to be a good management team, but so far the early results aren't great and I don't see how anyone could take a great deal of confidence from them.

Would it have been better to move those prospects for help now? I don't really get the argument against patience when the previous regime also started off doing everything in their power to stock up on potential.

Also just for reference, 13 of the top 30 prospects (according to mlb pipeline) have been acquired within the past two seasons. That includes 6 of the top 10 listed and a couple of guys we can dream on in Bichette and Pearson.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
2013? 2014?

2013 Bottom Lineup

3B Lawrie 95wrc+, 1.4war
LF Cabrera 87wrc+, -0.8war
2B Izturis 64wrc+, -2.2war
C Arencibia 57wrc+, -0.4war

Bench

UT DeRosa 101wrc+, 0.0war
OF Davis 88wrc+, 1.1war
IF Kawasaki 79wrc+, 0.8war
C Thole 38wrc+, -0.4war

Extra Bench

UT Bonifacio 55wrc+, 0.4war
OF Gose 85wrc+, -0.4war / Sierra 126wrc+ 0.5war / Pillar 57wrc+ 0.0war
IF Goins 63wrc+, 0.4war
C Blanco 45wrc+, -0.2war


#5+ SP

Redmond 14gs, 0.7awar
Rogers 20gs, 0.4awar
Jenkins 3gs, 0.2awar
Laffey 1gs, -0.1awar
Ortiz 4gs, -0.2awar
Romero 2gs, -0.3awar
Nolin 1gs, -0.3awar
Morrow 10gs, -0.4awar
Wang 6gs, -0.4awar
 

zeke

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You haven't "saved money". You picked up three extra years for the tradeoff of a meaningless couple mill saved per year over these past 2 seasons (its literally $2 million per year). Reyes has actually been worth more than Tulo this year.

yes that's what 'saved money' means - paying less money.
 

canucksfan

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This team is supposed to be competing so they have a mandate to a) find good players and b) build quality depth.

They've done neither. Their main acquisitions (save Happ) have been mainly junk - with the Morales deal in particular looking completely brutal - and the team's depth at starting pitching, catcher, and middle infield being absolutely atrocious. And when the team has had injuries this year, the complete vacuum behind those starters has cost the team a pile of games. And this isn't something that needs 'big money signings' or 'trading top prospects' to fix. A completely washed-up Mat Latos and Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn't good enough.

So far they've made mostly bad patchwork fixes and allowed a system built mainly by the previous administration grow into a top-10 prospect pool in MLB ... while the team has fallen off the top rung of competing teams in the here and now. This is not a great feat or great management.

They may yet prove to be a good management team, but so far the early results aren't great and I don't see how anyone could take a great deal of confidence from them.

The holes going into the season were in the outfield and DH/1B. Pearce has done well offensively and in the field he hasn't been good. Jose was a logical fit. He hasn't turned out. Morales has been a dud. Starting pitching hasn't been good mainly due to injuries and inconsistency (Lirano and Estrada). Smoak has done very well so Pearce wasn't needed at 1b which is a good thing but that has left him in LF. Additionally, the production from SS and 2B have been brutal mainly due to injuries. I don't see how they logically improve SS and 2b without trading prospects.

The depth of this team has been a concern. However, when you don't have very many prospects in AAA it makes it harder on the depth.

Going by MLB top 10 prospects 6 of them have been brought in by the current regime. When AA left the team ranked 25th in the league I believe in terms of prospects. Now they are ranked 12th. AA deserves some credit but we shouldn't dismiss what the current regime has done in terms of building up the farm system.



Top-5 might be a stretch on Ramirez but he has to be a top-10 prospect at this point. He's been completely unhittable and if his arm holds up he'll be on the MLB squad next year almost certainly. Allowing 13 hits and 0 runs in 30 innings is just total domination. He looks like he'll be a high-end bullpen arm for this team very soon.

I know the standard opinion will be that guys like Greene and Maese are superior prospects because they're starters ... but I can't rate a starter struggling in A or AA over a relief pitcher destroying AAA. Greene looks like he'll be a reliever anyway and you could only dream that he'd be this dominant in 2 years if they converted him.

Where would Ramirez fit in with the following, Vlad, Bo, Alford, Jansen, Pearson, Warmoth, Borucki, Zeuch, SRF, Hernandez and I am probably forgetting a few.

I like from what I have seen from Ramirez. He has got better the more he has pitched. He is going to be 27 next year but he is new to pitching. His ceiling is a top bullpen arm. His run he has had has been great but IMO it is a small sample. Those are reasons why I wouldn't rank him in the top 10.
 

zeke

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Stole this summary about Jansen's defense takes from another board:

Sickels: https://www.minorleagueball.com/201...w-toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2017

"I’m impressed with what Jansen has done this year. Glove has always been strong, bat looks improved and he’s young enough for that to be real especially since he controls the strike zone well. I’d give him a B-/C+ right now (up from C) pending more detailed reports"

baseballprospectus: (cited on twitter)

"His defensive acumen gets good grades, and he makes enough contact and power to profile on the lighter end as a regular"

Farnsworth (previous fangraphs guy): http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/

He has improved his catching enough to project as a potential average defender,

Law: http://meadowparty.com/blog/2017/08/16/klawchat-81617/

Offense-first catcher, adequate behind the plate, enough to stay there.

and these are just blogs but they do their homework:

bluebirdbanter: https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/5/14/15267932/2017-draft-preview-organizational-catcher-depth

"A year ago, Danny Jansen was well regarded for his work behind the plate, shown solid plate discipline and signs of raw power, and had been moved aggressively. But he hadn't actually hit much at all."

clutchlings: https://clutchlings.blogspot.ca/2017/05/danny-jansen-blue-jays-catcher-of-future.html

"And lest you think Jansen is a bat-first player, it's his skills behind the plate that have won him accolades at every stop in his career. "
 

Discoverer

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And a quick search through a year of Longenhagen chats comes up with just these two comments from this year:

May 23
Jack 12:41 Does Danny Jansen have a shot to be an everyday catcher?
Eric A Longenhagen 12:41 In my opinion, he does not.

May 9
Rick: What do you know about Dan Jansen in the Blue Jays System? He didn’t make your list this year but is a prospect to note according to Mark Shapiro.
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely playing well and if it continues it’s worth re-evaluating but scouts here were not on him during the AFL.
 

metafour

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yes that's what 'saved money' means - paying less money.

You saved a paltry $4 million over two seasons at the expense of $54 million over the next three seasons. Wow, talk about financial wizardry.
 

zeke

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You saved a paltry $4 million over two seasons at the expense of $54 million over the next three seasons. Wow, talk about financial wizardry.

Yeah, you left a couple of small parts out of your wizardly calculations there:

Tulo: 4.2fwar, 4.9bwar = 4.5awar
Reyes: 1.1fwar, -1.2bwar = -0.1awar

1. So an extra 4.5 wins.

2. oh yeah - Plus two ALCS.
 

Discoverer

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Yeah, you left a couple of small parts out of your wizardly calculations there:

Tulo: 4.2fwar, 4.9bwar = 4.5awar
Reyes: 1.1fwar, -1.2bwar = -0.1awar

1. So an extra 4.5 wins.

2. oh yeah - Plus two ALCS.

Yeah, Anthopoulos was in a tough spot having to deal with the terrible Reyes contract.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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And a quick search through a year of Longenhagen chats comes up with just these two comments from this year:

May 23
Jack 12:41 Does Danny Jansen have a shot to be an everyday catcher?
Eric A Longenhagen 12:41 In my opinion, he does not.

May 9
Rick: What do you know about Dan Jansen in the Blue Jays System? He didn’t make your list this year but is a prospect to note according to Mark Shapiro.
Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely playing well and if it continues it’s worth re-evaluating but scouts here were not on him during the AFL.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-99/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=103405
 
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