Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

[dredeye]

Nevermind

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Cloned]

The only silver lining here is that it'll likely force management to look for another impact infielder this offseason, whereas before they might have settled on starting Biggio again.

 

[zeke]

2yr Stats

CF Springer 152wrc+
1B Guerrero 150
DH Teoscar 137
C Kirk 126
2B Semien 118
SS Bichette 116
LF Gurriel 111
3B Biggio 102
RF Grichuk 100

IF Espinal 99
DH Dickerson 97
C Jansen 74
OF Palacios 57

C McGuire 65
UT Valera 42



Will I ever get over pinch hitting for Kirk with Valera with the winning run on 2nd in the late innings of a playoffs race game?

Nope.

 

[Woodman19]

2yr Stats

CF Springer 152wrc+
1B Guerrero 150
DH Teoscar 137
C Kirk 126
2B Semien 118
SS Bichette 116
LF Gurriel 111
3B Biggio 102
RF Grichuk 100

IF Espinal 99
DH Dickerson 97
C Jansen 74
OF Palacios 57

C McGuire 65
UT Valera 42



Will I ever get over pinch hitting for Kirk with Valera with the winning run on 2nd in the late innings of a playoffs race game?

Nope.

Pinch hitting to bunt*

 

[Discoverer]

Pinch hitting to bunt*

Yeah, this part both makes it better and so, so much worse.

 

[phillipmike]

Here's where all 30 farm systems rank

14. Toronto Blue Jays
2021 preseason rank: 7
2020 midseason rank: 7
2020 preseason rank: 16

Top 100 prospects: Gabriel Moreno (No. 34), Nate Pearson (No. 44), Orelvis Martinez (No. 48), Jordan Groshans (No. 61)

The Blue Jays dipped into their prospect talent pool when they moved Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Twins for José Berríos at the Trade Deadline, thus hurting their ranking but improving their Major League club. Among the Top 100 prospects that remain, impressive bounces by Gabriel Moreno and Orelvis Martinez have been counterbalanced by another injury-riddled season for Nate Pearson.

Pitching remains the biggest sore spot in the system, but the arrival of Gunnar Hoglund (a legit top-10 talent if not for Tommy John surgery) provides some hope there.

Surprised that the O’s are 1 and the Pirates are 4. I have the Pirates 1, similar star value and better depth imo.

 

[FreeBird]

Here's where all 30 farm systems rank


Surprised that the O’s are 1 and the Pirates are 4. I have the Pirates 1, similar star value and better depth imo.

WTF has Walker done to Barrios inept pitching is hallmark to the the whole JAYS organization remember money ball Beane always called Shapiro when he wanted to dump a player disgrace when teams like TB and OAKLAND SUCEED YEAR AFTER YEAR and we continue to flounder with much more payroll five years of there inept management

 

[phillipmike]

WTF has Walker done to Barrios inept pitching is hallmark to the the whole JAYS organization remember money ball Beane always called Shapiro when he wanted to dump a player disgrace when teams like TB and OAKLAND SUCEED YEAR AFTER YEAR and we continue to flounder with much more payroll five years of there inept management

Robbie Ray:

2020:
Robbie Ray with Arizona: -0.5 fWAR or -0.4 bWAR
Robbie Ray with Toronto: 0.0 fWAR or 0.2 bWAR in 5 starts

2021:
Robbie Ray with Toronto: 2.8 fWAR (27th in the league) or 5.1 bWAR (4th in the league). Also a Cy Young candidate.

Jose Berrios:

2020:
Jose Berrios with Minnesota: 2.1 fWAR or 1.7 bWAR
Jose Berrios with Toronto: 0.3 fWAR or 0.1 bWAR in 5 starts

Robbie Ray needed work and Walker didnt have much impact on him in 5 starts in 2020. It is where Ray got a full offseason and season with Walker where he is one of the best pitchers in the league. Berrios came to Toronto as a finished product, it is very likely Walker did absolutely nothing to or with him because he didnt need work. Berrios is adjusting to the team.

Berrios' K%, BB%, hard contact, spray charts, EV and velo are identical to his time with Minnesota this year. His barrel is better with the Jays. He is getting BABIP to death; .261 to .392. Im not a fan of Berrios but there isnt a cause for concern for me, this will all even out. He is probably adjusting to his defense and catchers. I expect these numbers to get much better when Jansen is catching him.

Pete Walker isnt the problem. Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Matz all turned their careers around because of Walker. Stripling is having his 2nd best season of his career thanks to an adjustment Walker made.

 

[Puckstuff]

2yr Stats

CF Springer 152wrc+
1B Guerrero 150
DH Teoscar 137
C Kirk 126
2B Semien 118
SS Bichette 116
LF Gurriel 111
3B Biggio 102
RF Grichuk 100

IF Espinal 99
DH Dickerson 97
C Jansen 74
OF Palacios 57

C McGuire 65
UT Valera 42



Will I ever get over pinch hitting for Kirk with Valera with the winning run on 2nd in the late innings of a playoffs race game?

Nope.

This also magnifies the obvious upgrades that should be 3B and RF. (Grich in rf not Teo) Both 3B for offence and defence and RF because I can't watch another year of Grichcuk hit. Ramirez - 144 for 3B and Marte 129 for RF/CF would be nice additions at 3B and OF. Then I'd put the cheaper option of Biggio at 2B and hope he rebounds to 114 and 124 wrc+ he was at in 2019-2020. Still interested to bring back Semien though if the money makes sense but 3B and Grichcuk replacement is what this team needs to focus in terms of improving the lineup imo.


1. Springer
2. Marte
3. Gurrerro
4. Hernandez
5. Ramirez
6. Bichette
7. Kirk
8. Gurriel
9. Biggio

 

[Discoverer]

Not that I would be against adding a plus defender to the OF or anything, but Teoscar isn't the defensive disaster he used to be. He's good enough out there now that I think you leave him there going forward rather than making him primarily a DH.

Also, I would love love love to see them sign Teoscar to an extension.

 

[TGB]

The only explanation I can think of for why so many pitchers fall apart when they first join the Jays is because their defense is that bad. This wouldn't really surprise me. Maybe the only reason the bullpen was fine at the beginning of the season is because the sun blinding the outfielders at Dunedin was a much bigger deal than we realized.

The only silver lining here is that it'll likely force management to look for another impact infielder this offseason, whereas before they might have settled on starting Biggio again.

Signing one of the big SS's and/or moving one to 3rd and starting Espinal at SS (you can't have expensive all-stars at every position, and Espinal would be a starting SS for many teams), Bichette to 2nd and using Biggio like a utility fielder/plug in left bat would probably be the most ideal way to use him. Power and on base ability are nice traits to have for a backup, and we don't really have any high level infield prospects for depth anymore except for maybe Smith, but Smith needs to adjust and is the kind of player you have around when you're rebuilding.

You could make Espinal the backup fielder and just sign another big time infielder, but I'd rather put more money into pitching.

 

[Kurtz]

Signing one of the big SS's and/or moving one to 3rd and starting Espinal at SS (you can't have expensive all-stars at every position, and Espinal would be a starting SS for many teams), Bichette to 2nd and using Biggio like a utility fielder/plug in left bat would probably be the most ideal way to use him. Power and on base ability are nice traits to have for a backup, and we don't really have any infield prospects for depth anymore except for maybe Smith, but Smith needs to adjust and is the kind of player you have around when you're rebuilding.

You could make Espinal the backup fielder and just sign another big time infielder, but I'd rather put more money into pitching.



Kind of looks like the reason so many pitchers eventually fall apart when they join the Jays is because their defense is bad which would mean defense was making many of those relievers look good. It's also possible there was something about Dunedin, despite all the grumbling you hear about it, that was actually elevating the relievers early on. There was that whole thing about the sun peeking over the roof at sunset and blinding the outfielders.

Yea, we might be sleeping on Espinal a bit.

 

[TGB]

Yea, we might be sleeping on Espinal a bit.

Well, I don't think the Jays are sleeping on him. I think above average contact hitter and defense is pretty much all he'll ever be, if he can add maybe 15 home runs or so that would be nice, and that's fine especially in a backup role. I'd just rather give a late 20 something playing SS/3B a 5+ year contract than a 30+ player on turf, and if that means you have to play Espinal every day...I don't see the problem. You can't have superstars at every position anyway.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Kurtz]

Pretty good interview with Atkins and Bobcat:

Some highlights:

- Thinks payroll can go to 200 mil, but may be a gradual process.
- Will focus more on the bullpen in the offseason
- All in-game decisions are made from the bench...said they'd be breaking the rules otherwise
- Thinks Biggio struggled offensively because of his troubles at third. Sounds like that experiment is over.
- Thinks Espinal and Smith are a great complement to eachother at 3rd. While they hit from the same side, they each excel against different types of pitchers. Sounds like this may be our solution at 3rd next year. Said Valera is not as good of a complement to Espinal.
- Feels Trent Thorton is atm their best long relief candidate (for those who were wondering why he replaced Berrios the other night)

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Pretty good interview with Atkins and Bobcat:

Some highlights:

- Thinks payroll can go to 200 mil, but may be a gradual process.
- Will focus more on the bullpen in the offseason
- All in-game decisions are made from the bench...said they'd be breaking the rules otherwise
- Thinks Biggio struggled offensively because of his troubles at third. Sounds like that experiment is over.
- Thinks Espinal and Smith are a great complement to eachother at 3rd. While they hit from the same side, they each excel against different types of pitchers. Sounds like this may be our solution at 3rd next year. Said Valera is not as good of a complement to Espinal.
- Feels Trent Thorton is atm their best long relief candidate (for those who were wondering why he replaced Berrios the other night)

So everybody thinks Valera sucks except for the manager... cool.

Also Thornton over Hatch in that role is still baffling.

 

[The Nemesis]

Pretty good interview with Atkins and Bobcat:

Some highlights:

- Thinks payroll can go to 200 mil, but may be a gradual process.
- Will focus more on the bullpen in the offseason
- All in-game decisions are made from the bench...said they'd be breaking the rules otherwise
- Thinks Biggio struggled offensively because of his troubles at third. Sounds like that experiment is over.
- Thinks Espinal and Smith are a great complement to eachother at 3rd. While they hit from the same side, they each excel against different types of pitchers. Sounds like this may be our solution at 3rd next year. Said Valera is not as good of a complement to Espinal.
- Feels Trent Thorton is atm their best long relief candidate (for those who were wondering why he replaced Berrios the other night)

Stealthy way to chuck Montoyo under the bus in terms of saying dumb game decisions are all on him and that Valera isn't that good.

 

[Kurtz]

Just to clarify, he said Valera wasn't a good complement to Espinal not because he sucks but rather because his strengths and weaknesses against certain pitcher types are similar to Espinal, whereas Smith does well against pitcher types that Espinal struggles against and vice versa.

 

[trellaine201]

Robbie Ray has huge $$$ in his eyes. He is “imagining the freedom” next contract.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Obviously the in game decisions are coming from the bench. Nobody seriously believes that Montoyo is phoning a friend in real time in Atkins or an analytics department head to make decisions for him do they? The analytics department making decisions theory was always under the thought that they've got a pre-game strategy of what they might do in particular situations based on some unknown analytics. The final call obviously would fall to whether Montoyo actually follows through or not.

Maybe Montoyo just is that dumb though, who knows

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't mind Thornton in a long relief role. Come in a game where 1 team already has a 95% chance of winning, eat some low leverage innings, whatever. If he's taking up a pen spot from a potential good reliever then no thanks, but if he's there that's the right spot to use him in. Hatch they still think is starting depth so that's not really the choice they're making. Using him(Thornton) in the 8th inning of a 1 run game like they have is moronic and almost everyone on the planet would agree.

 

[Discoverer]

Obviously the in game decisions are coming from the bench. Nobody seriously believes that Montoyo is phoning a friend in real time in Atkins or an analytics department head to make decisions for him do they? The analytics department making decisions theory was always under the thought that they've got a pre-game strategy of what they might do in particular situations based on some unknown analytics. The final call obviously would fall to whether Montoyo actually follows through or not.

Maybe Montoyo just is that dumb though, who knows

I agree that all that stuff is obvious, but I disagree that no on actually believes the front office makes the calls.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Orelvis hit another HR today. He's doing absolutely nothing on balls in play though it's weird