Confirmed with Link: PLD, 3rd to Winnipeg; Laine, Roslovic here

[BB88]

It depends on the standard you're holding him to.

It was encouraging to see Laine not be a disaster defensively, I'll give you that, but he still wasn't making the Jets top six lines better. Chevy brought it up in the post-trade presser. Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler was much better than Connor-Scheifele-Laine, whether you go by the goals or the expected goals. He wasn't better than an aged Blake Wheeler. That's a high bar to clear because Wheeler is still good, but in my book you're not a $9m type of guy if you can't make each line on your team better with your presence. We've already seen all the excuses here from Laine fans, several pages of them. At some point the guy just has to carry if he is actually going to be a superstar. We haven't seen that yet.

If you meant it was a good season for a $6m winger, then sure I'll go along with that.

Are you a straight up stat watcher or have you actually followed Laines game closely?

& Laine has been one of the best goal scorers in the entire league since entering it and was getting close to ppg last year.
I love how that’s only worth what garbage like Lucic and the guys are making

 

[Scheifele55]

Patrik Laine is going to get north of $9M+ maybe even demand $10M

 

[JacketsDavid]

Laine is an elite scorer, the issue the last 2 years was his shooting % fell from 18% (which is really elite) down to 12.2-12.4%.
If he gets back to 15%+ he would be worth every penny.

 

[Scheifele55]

I am not trolling by saying this... I think Columbus is going to find Laine as not being the same PP scorer that they had envisioned. In Winnipeg he had the luxury of having Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor with him as threats. Who does Columbus have that is elite? Texier and Bjorgstrand play on the PP1? Teams seem to combat Laine by having a defender near him to make sure he doesn't have an opportunity to get off his booming shot. I am sure that playing with Texier or whoever your #1 centre is will help that player's career substantially. I am sad to see him gone from Winnipeg, but glad that we were able to find a partner in Columbus that had a star player on the block.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

I am not trolling by saying this... I think Columbus is going to find Laine as not being the same PP scorer that they had envisioned. In Winnipeg he had the luxury of having Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor with him as threats. Who does Columbus have that is elite? Texier and Bjorgstrand play on the PP1? Teams seem to combat Laine by having a defender near him to make sure he doesn't have an opportunity to get off his booming shot. I am sure that playing with Texier or whoever your #1 centre is will help that player's career substantially. I am sad to see him gone from Winnipeg, but glad that we were able to find a partner in Columbus that had a star player on the block.

In Winnipeg Blake Wheeler and his shot were absolutely 0% threat on PP. This season they finally moved him away from right wall and gave that spot to Connor where he looks really good. Also part of the reason Scheifele had room to shoot from the slot was because Laine existed on that PP.

It's very easy to cheat on Laine when the right side has no real shooting threat.

 

[CBJ goalie]

Patrik Laine is going to get north of $9M+ maybe even demand $10M

Not in this climate....Alex Pieterangelo signed for $8.8M and he's considered near the top of his class, as an UFA.

Not saying Laine won't get paid....I trust Jarmo to get something done if Laine works out with CBJ.

 

[BB88]

Not in this climate....Alex Pieterangelo signed for $8.8M and he's considered near the top of his class, as an UFA.

Not saying Laine won't get paid....I trust Jarmo to get something done if Laine works out with CBJ.

Alex signed with Vegas though(taxes?) and he’s 31y. With Laine you are trying to buy his prime years.

Covid will give you bit of a help but top players will get paid.

 

[majormajor]

Are you a straight up stat watcher or have you actually followed Laines game closely?

& Laine has been one of the best goal scorers in the entire league since entering it and was getting close to ppg last year.
I love how that’s only worth what garbage like Lucic and the guys are making

I watch the Jets a lot. They were my main late night team up until last year, and I still watch them once or twice a week.

It's really hilarious when someone accuses you of being a "stat watcher" and then only mentions more basic stats. You're doing the same thing I'm doing just a cruder more inaccurate version of it. If I was just a stat watcher, then you'd think I would know his goal scoring stats? People who know the fancy stats know the boxcars too, but you're like "listen nerd, this guy had this stat last year" as if you're going to tell me something new.

I could tell you I've watched the team and thought the top line looked awkward with Laine on it and that he is really best when Ehlers is skating the puck for him, but people tend to find statistical arguments more credible so they tend to be the main body of evidence around here.

Laine has scored 58 goals in the last two seasons, that is not actually one of the best in the league. If he can shoot at 18% like he did in his first two seasons and play the acceptable two-way game he had last year, then that's a $9m player. You're cherrypicking his best attributes from different seasons and trying to make it seem like he has already put it all together. That just hasn't happened yet.

 

[majormajor]

Inside that disastrous, injury ridden season...did you happen to find any positive signs that may have better indicated his level when not injured? Any months come to mind?

Or is yiur theory that a mediocre player can have a hot enough month to put NHL records on notice?

That particular discussion was about his contract relative to his performance in that disastrous season. He obviously has superstar potential, the real broader debate is about whether he's already been a superstar in terms of his contribution to his team. And the answer to that should be a resounding "no". You don't have to make all these excuses for superstars.

In Winnipeg Blake Wheeler and his shot were absolutely 0% threat on PP. This season they finally moved him away from right wall and gave that spot to Connor where he looks really good. Also part of the reason Scheifele had room to shoot from the slot was because Laine existed on that PP.

It's very easy to cheat on Laine when the right side has no real shooting threat.

It's not easy to cheat on Laine at all when you've got a fantastic goal scorer in the bumper spot (Scheifele), a fantastic goal scorer in the slot (Connor), and a fantastic scorer at the point (Buff). Wheeler is just the playmaker there, and nobody in the league had more PP assists than him from 2017-19. All of those guys benefited from each other, Laine too. You can complain about the setup all you want but it was the top PP in the league with Wheeler setting up the plays on the halfwall, they obviously did some things right.

Not in this climate....Alex Pieterangelo signed for $8.8M and he's considered near the top of his class, as an UFA.

Not saying Laine won't get paid....I trust Jarmo to get something done if Laine works out with CBJ.

Right, perhaps no one will pay Laine $10m x 8 right now, but he'll look for it and he'll keep taking short term deals until he can get it.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Laine has scored 58 goals in the last two seasons, that is not actually one of the best in the league. If he can shoot at 18% like he did in his first two seasons and play the acceptable two-way game he had last year, then that's a $9m player. You're cherrypicking his best attributes from different seasons and trying to make it seem like he has already put it all together. That just hasn't happened yet.

Improving his game in other facets that help him get more scoring chances would mean that he does indeed not need to shoot at 18%.

I'm honestly not sure what your angle here is. You're claiming that Laine didn't make the Jets top 6 better. Really? So basically Columbus traded a 1C for a lucky scrub who shouldn't even play in the NHL?

It's not easy to cheat on Laine at all when you've got a fantastic goal scorer in the bumper spot (Scheifele), a fantastic goal scorer in the slot (Connor), and a fantastic scorer at the point (Buff). Wheeler is just the playmaker there, and nobody in the league had more PP assists than him from 2017-19. All of those guys benefited from each other, Laine too. You can complain about the setup all you want but it was the top PP in the league with Wheeler setting up the plays on the halfwall, they obviously did some things right.

Yeah, that setup worked fine for a while, but it became predictable because whenever Wheeler had the puck, it was almost certain he'd try to return it to point of get it to Laine. With Buff playing PP QB there was a legitimate shooting threat on the blueline which helped. What I'm saying is that the first PP unit hasn't really worked its magic for a while. For multiple reasons.

Having a goal scoring threat on the right side also gives Laine a passing option that can result into more than a muffin at the goalie (See Kyle Connor's first goal of the season)


I kinda see what you're trying to do but you just come off as an overly negative buzzkill. Yeah, Laine's not Ovechkin, but he's a good goal scorer & playmaker that's on a good path to become a more complete player.

 

[majormajor]

Improving his game in other facets that help him get more scoring chances would mean that he does indeed not need to shoot at 18%.

I'm honestly not sure what your angle here is. You're claiming that Laine didn't make the Jets top 6 better. Really? So basically Columbus traded a 1C for a lucky scrub who shouldn't even play in the NHL?

More precisely, he didn't make either unit better relative to when the other Jets top six F's were there. That's not an easy thing to do because it is perhaps the best set of top six wings in the league. At 5v5 Laine has been the 4th best winger on the Jets, that isn't to say he is a scrub but there are people here saying he is already a superstar in terms of performance or that he should be paid $9m per, and that is a pretty high bar. If he was that good he'd have been better than Connor, Ehlers, and Wheeler at 5v5.

Yeah, that setup worked fine for a while, but it became predictable because whenever Wheeler had the puck, it was almost certain he'd try to return it to point of get it to Laine. With Buff playing PP QB there was a legitimate shooting threat on the blueline which helped. What I'm saying is that the first PP unit hasn't really worked its magic for a while. For multiple reasons.

Having a goal scoring threat on the right side also gives Laine a passing option that can result into more than a muffin at the goalie (See Kyle Connor's first goal of the season)

The Jackets have shot options from the right side, but we don't have anyone who can thread a seam pass like Wheeler, Laine might be having dreams of Papa Wheeler after a few months in Columbus. And if you want to see "predictable" that is the Jackets PP to a tee. Seth Jones has about zero deception from the point, if he plans on passing it to Laine then all the PKers will know it.

I kinda see what you're trying to do but you just come off as an overly negative buzzkill.

I'm super excited to see what Laine can do. He came into camp in his best shape yet, had a great first game, and for all we know could be a huge boon to the Jackets' franchise. I'm not responding to posts saying those things with anything but affirmation. What I'm disagreeing with ought to be clear by now.

 

[JetsFan815]

I am not trolling by saying this... I think Columbus is going to find Laine as not being the same PP scorer that they had envisioned.

Nah regardless of doubts around his 5v5 impact the PP is one situation where Laine's impact is unambiguously great. I think with Laine the CBJ PP easily shoots up to above 20% and in the top-10, maybe in the top-5 in the league. It is not hard to have a good PP with him, a right shot in the slot (Bjorkstrand is a great fit), a right shot on point (Jones), Domi on the right halfwall and Atkinson in front of the net with Laine in his office at the left circle is a recipe for a top-5 PP in the league.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

The Jackets have shot options from the right side, but we don't have anyone who can thread a seam pass like Wheeler, Laine might be having dreams of Papa Wheeler after a few months in Columbus. And if you want to see "predictable" that is the Jackets PP to a tee. Seth Jones has about zero deception from the point, if he plans on passing it to Laine then all the PKers will know it.
.

To be fair, that Papa Wheeler's seam pass has been a thing of the past for past 2 seasons.

We'll see. Could be that Laine isn't a fit at all, could be that he thrives in Columbus.

 

[Monk]

Panarin was 24 in his rookie nhl season. Laine is 22.

 

[majormajor]

Nah regardless of doubts around his 5v5 impact the PP is one situation where Laine's impact is unambiguously great. I think with Laine the CBJ PP easily shoots up to above 20% and in the top-10, maybe in the top-5 in the league. It is not hard to have a good PP with him, a right shot in the slot (Bjorkstrand is a great fit), a right shot on point (Jones), Domi on the right halfwall and Atkinson in front of the net with Laine in his office at the left circle is a recipe for a top-5 PP in the league.

He'll make it better no doubt about it. They still won't get back to the middle of the league performance though unless they get better at entries and get set up. Right now they're not even at the stage where they can get the puck to him reliably.

---------- Atkinson
Laine - Bjorkstrand - Domi
--------- Jones

I can see you're trying to recapture the classic Jets PP. We might as well try it. Domi loves to be super deceptive, he'd be good passing to four RHS here. Bjorkstrand doesn't need a lot of space, that's good. Atkinson is a great finisher in close. Jones is really our only RHS option at the point, otherwise I'd love to have someone with more deception back there. Jones is Mr. Predictable with the puck. Werenski can fake out the whole defense but you need a right shot feeding Laine from the forehand.

 

[ViD]

Patrik Laine is going to get north of $9M+ maybe even demand $10M

He would have to score at a PPG rate which is a very hard task in Columbus

 

[ViD]

---------- Atkinson
Laine - Bjorkstrand - Domi
--------- Jones

Wait, you want Atkinson to park in front of the goal ? That’s a terrible idea in my opinion, should be Jenner to Stenlund

 

[majormajor]

Wait, you want Atkinson to park in front of the goal ? That’s a terrible idea in my opinion, should be Jenner to Stenlund

Stenlund could do it for all we know. Good hands. I think a PP is best if all five guys can make plays, that forces the defenders to cover the net front more and opens up lanes for others. Putting a big man in front and just blasting it from the umbrella is not good enough because it is the same pass and shot lanes over an over again and the PKers have a predictable job.

 

[NotCommitted]

If he was that good he'd have been better than Connor, Ehlers, and Wheeler at 5v5.

Ehlers is a beast 5v5 currently, there's not that many guys leaguewide where you can say "hey, that guy is better than Ehlers 5v5!". But you are cherry picking stats if you say Connor or Wheeler have been better than him 5v5. You can make a case either way, depending what stat column you prioritize. 3 out of 4 season Laine has been among the very best (top-2 / top-3) Jets forwards at scoring more than getting scored on 5v5. If you want extended zone time and nice xG or CF% then Laine is probably not your guy, though neither is Connor. If this was a videogame, Laine's powermove would be a crazy shot that's a 50-50 goal from anywhere inside a blueline when you use it, also his normal shot would also be really really good He has regularly outperformed his xG and CF in terms of actual goals, at some point it might not be a statistical anomaly but a very good shooter scoring goals which a statistical model doesn't predict.

I think you are right in that he hasn't put it all together yet and that's fair - the player you would get if you combined the best qualities of his seasons (EV scoring from his rookie season, PP scoring from his 2nd season and passing/two-way game from his last season) would be a 50g+50a = 100p guy with pretty decent D-game for a high offence guy who would have 60+ %GF. Now that dude would be one of the best players in the game, so that's the upside in the perfect world where he had a "perfect" season - of course that's not realistic and many other players would look awesome as well if you cherry picked like that to create the beastmode season. On the other hand the guy is still only 22 so it's likely he's still taking some steps.

Bottom line, if he had put it all together, there's no way you'd have got him for PLD. The upside for CBJ in this trade is Laine has already shown all the right pieces and has had 3 seasons ranging from good to awesome and looks on the verge of breaking through, so IF he can put all that together, thing could turn out really good for Columbus indeed. Laine also has that 1 real stinker of a season thrown in just to make forums more interesting, gotta like how that guy rolls

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[MissADD]

I mean, its not like there are any PP goals to take away

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Glass completely empty. I love his optimism

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

That is the answer. Now we just have to substantiate it. This is a no brainer. I have watched a lot of Jets games.. Buff fan for sure. Laine has more to offer, its time for him to become elite.

 

[WpgSteve]

Patrik Laine is going to get north of $9M+ maybe even demand $10M

He can ask for whatever he wants. Unfortunately he wasn't drafted by Toronto.

I don't see CBJ offering more than $8M right now on a max term deal. If I were them, I'd wait and see how he performs. Better to pay $10M for a sure thing if he kills it than risk a $8M albatross contract if he disappoints IMHO.

 

[Halberdier]

Laine was signed after that disastrous 2018-19 season, where he really was an absolute disaster. 9 goals from December 1st onward, -24 on the year (the nearest teammate was -12), that's more than just a bad half season, that's a bad season. Laine's torrid scoring in November actually obscures how much he looked like a zombie for the first two months of the season. No that's not better than Connor, who signed at the same time after a strong year.

Yeah, as said, the latter half of 18-19 was bad. Even horrible for Laine's high standards.

But even with his bad season 18-19, Laine was just 3rd on 5-on-5 goal differential 16-20 after Ehlers and Scheifele (and better than Wheeler). And if you omit that season away as an anomaly, Laine did lead the entire Jets team on 5-on-5 goal differential (a.k.a. winning) for 16-18 + 19-20. He definitely leaves Wheeler and Connor biting the dust on that comparison.

Laine defends by playing solid, quiet positional play with his high IQ. He often takes away some high quality chances by backchecking. Nothing fancy, nothing to show in highlights and nothing to notice if you only follow the puck. But Laine's defensive play is not actually bad. It's just not excellent either. He is better defensively than Connor and more responsible defensively than Wheeler & Scheifele who way too often to over-commit themselves to offensive zone. However, I expect Laine to be one of the worst forwards defensively for CBJ as that's like the thing with Blue Jackets.

PS raw +/- is hardly usable stat as it includes only minuses from PP and only plus points from PK. Also empty netters count as full plus and minuses screwing those stats even further. Therefore I suggest using just 5-on-5 goal differential or "5-on-5 +/-".

PPS As you did bring up Laine was worse than aging Wheeler last season playing 1st line, that's not exactly true. When Laine played with Scheifele w/o Wheeler, they were doing more than fine: +38, -33 on 5-on-5 game. When Wheeler played with Scheifele w/o Laine, they had +18, -16 which is basically the same, only slightly worse.

Last season Laine got 0.51 5-on-5 PPG, Wheeler 0.44. Not a huge difference, but anyway you can hardly say he was worse than aging Wheeler. He was not. Wheeler just started his 8.25M AAV, 5 year deal which I expect to be horrible value towards the end of the 5 year period but anyway.

All in all, 8M would be somewhat lowballing with Laine (unless it's short term), but let's see how the season is going on. Also covid & low CAP has already made things worse so it might be that 8M eventually is what they settle on with. Without covid, I think something in line of 9-10M would be the actual AAV.