Sportsnet: Playing hardball with Franson will cost Leafs

[SkateSave]

There are three ways for us to get burned with Franson, and two ways for us to get good value.

Burned:
1) He walks for nothing
2) We trade him because we don't think his recent play is sustainable, and then he sustains it
3) We sign him because we think his recent play is sustainable, and then he falls back down to being a bottom-pairing PP specialist

Good Value:
1) We trade him because we don't think his recent play is sustainable, and then falls back down to former value
2) We sign him because we think his recent play is sustainable, and he actually sustains it

Whether or not you're a supporter or against the guy, there's evidence on both sides of the equation. This year he really is playing head and shoulders above previous years defensively, but it's hard to ignore previous years of larger sample sizes too.

I think management has a big decision to make between keeping him vs Gardiner. I can't really see us keeping both in a cap world.

Trading Franson and having him succeed after the fact does not mean the leafs get 'burned'. What matters is what the return of Franson is. Trading isn't necessarily a zero sum game where your trading partner has to get screwed in order for you to succeed. Hopefully, a team who takes Franson will believe his play to be sustainable, and thus will trade value accordingly.

Trading for fair value might be necessary to obviate the risk of losing Franson for nothing or paying him more than he's worth.

So, the leafs get burned if they trade Franson and don't get a valuable return on him relative to his future success.

 

[KPower]

Leafs will regret signing him to a $5 million/year long term contract.

He was horrible last season.

He's been real good this year but it's a small sample size.

Let somebody else make that mistake(like the caps did).

 

[StringsAttached]

I'm nervous about the whole Franson situation. He's miles better defensively than he was at the start of the season (where he wasn't that bad tbh) and he's still putting up the points. Who will start producing if we decide to trade/let him go? We don't even have a decent point shot if Franson goes.

People keep saying he'll regress to his original form but i'm feeling something different. Perhaps playing alongside Phaneuf against the toughest competition has allowed Franson to take the next step in refining his game? I haven't seen him make many small, stupid moves this season. He looks much more confident.

Gardiner's contract was a bad move, Franson's thinking if Gardiner is making 4mil I should be making more no question.

 

[-DeMo-]

I'm nervous about the whole Franson situation. He's miles better defensively than he was at the start of the season (where he wasn't that bad tbh) and he's still putting up the points. Who will start producing if we decide to trade/let him go? We don't even have a decent point shot if Franson goes.

People keep saying he'll regress to his original form but i'm feeling something different. Perhaps playing alongside Phaneuf against the toughest competition has allowed Franson to take the next step in refining his game? I haven't seen him make many small, stupid moves this season. He looks much more confident.

Gardiner's contract was a bad move, Franson's thinking if Gardiner is making 4mil I should be making more no question.

people need to quit worrying about our offense, we have plenty even without cody's we'd still be a top 10 team in offense(were #2 right now), what we need to do is drastically get better defensively and bring down our GAA Franson wont help in that regard.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

I'm nervous about the whole Franson situation. He's miles better defensively than he was at the start of the season (where he wasn't that bad tbh) and he's still putting up the points. Who will start producing if we decide to trade/let him go? We don't even have a decent point shot if Franson goes.

People keep saying he'll regress to his original form but i'm feeling something different. Perhaps playing alongside Phaneuf against the toughest competition has allowed Franson to take the next step in refining his game? I haven't seen him make many small, stupid moves this season. He looks much more confident.

Gardiner's contract was a bad move, Franson's thinking if Gardiner is making 4mil I should be making more no question.

Personally I think we solve this by trading away Lups at the deadline or before the draft. We have Leivo and Kozun we can give a shot to and see where they lead.

I am a bit wary to give up on Gards quite yet as everyone has some down periods of play. We should hold onto him so that we can make an informed decision. Lupal we can move for a Low 2nd + something else we can put in the minors and not be gaining cap hit on. That clears up 5.25 mill right there and more wiggle room when it comes to Kadri, Bernier, Winnik and Santo.

But then again there is no way in hell I give Cody a long term deal worth north of 6 mill. 5.5 would be my top dollar and thats even stretching it more then a bit.
I would be more comfortable with a 4.75 mill per hit. Still keeps him tradable and doesn't break the bank and leave the rest of the team no room to be signed.

At some point players will have to start taking a smaller raise if they want to stay in one place and actually be able to afford other players to win with.

 

[rdawg1234]

Would really prefer to just trade him to the west and get top value while he's playing so well.

He's been in the league for YEARS now guys, he's not an all-star D, he's playing well this year but was horrendous last year and average the year before.

can we sell high for once!?

 

[Magic Man]

Would really prefer to just trade him to the west and get top value while he's playing so well.

He's been in the league for YEARS now guys, he's not an all-star D, he's playing well this year but was horrendous last year and average the year before.

can we sell high for once!?

I would agree here.

During the summer just about everyone was on board with trading Franson anywhere for anything. 25 games in and the majority want to sign him at 5-6M for 5 years.

The Leafs have 7 players that have some sort of NTC. Franson is not one of those, but he likely will be if resigned. He is on a 1 year deal, where they could retain 50% and not hurt themselves in future years. He is a big, physical RHD with a good point shot, which are always in demand. He is also playing at a higher level than he ever has.

The return for Franson could be enormous and his contract demands definately will be. Sell high instead of becoming stuck with another big, unmovable deal.

 

[Ash35]

Last year everyone was complaining about how much of a liability he is. Now he's a 5.5 defenseman. I find funny that i keep hearing the leafs aren't good enough. Yet anytime one of our not good enough players are up for new contact they all of a sudden should get an all star worthy contact.

 

[Hotel Mario]

A good GM will not make a long term mistake based on one good year out of a player, remember that David Clarkson scored 30 goals at one time and now is deadweight. Even with more proven players such as Kessel and Phaneuf there has been much argument over whether their fat anchor contracts are acceptable.

A fat anchor contract deal is only acceptable for a core player in the c(r)ap world. Franson is not a core player with the exception of 1/4 of a season.

 

[Quares27]

I'd still trade him. He's playing the best he ever has but I can't see him sustaining those minutes considering he couldnt even handle 2nd pairing duty last season.

 

[Rielly4]

Guys... 5 mil isnt an all star contract anymore...7 mil is. 4 mil is the going rate for average middle of the lineup d men who dont put up great numbers... Franson puts up points and hes a big dude who has pretty good possession numbers and this year has a positive plus minus, we'd be lucky to get him for 5 million dollars.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Would really prefer to just trade him to the west and get top value while he's playing so well.

He's been in the league for YEARS now guys, he's not an all-star D, he's playing well this year but was horrendous last year and average the year before.

can we sell high for once!?

put me in the sell high camp.

it's the smart move.

 

[HellasLEAF]

Guys... 5 mil isnt an all star contract anymore...7 mil is. 4 mil is the going rate for average middle of the lineup d men who dont put up great numbers... Franson puts up points and hes a big dude who has pretty good possession numbers and this year has a positive plus minus, we'd be lucky to get him for 5 million dollars.

throw in that he is a right shot.

many teams covet this on their top pairing and pp.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

throw in that he is a right shot.

many teams covet this on their top pairing and pp.

Yes they do. If he keeps this up, we could land a decent package back. We've been complaining about him for years. 20 games in he's suddenly a $5m player? And we've had a **** time negotiating with him prior. Can't imagine negotiating after the TD when he has all the leverage. Should be dealt.

 

[SkateSave]

I agree that it basically never happens that the leafs sell high. We're too enamoured with the fact that we have something decent.

Franson reminds of the year the leafs re-signed McCabe for top dollar cause he was killing it on an amazing leafs powerplay and had a ton of points. They could have cashed in massively if they traded him that year.

Thing is, if the leafs are in playoff position, I simply don't see Nonis having the stones to trade Franson (which is what always happens). Leafs are a bubble team and decide to stick it out with the guys they have instead of increasing team value long term.

 

[HellasLEAF]

I agree that it basically never happens that the leafs sell high. We're too enamoured with the fact that we have something decent.

Franson reminds of the year the leafs re-signed McCabe for top dollar cause he was killing it on an amazing leafs powerplay and had a ton of points. They could have cashed in massively if they traded him that year.

Thing is, if the leafs are in playoff position, I simply don't see Nonis having the stones to trade Franson (which is what always happens). Leafs are a bubble team and decide to stick it out with the guys they have instead of increasing team value long term.

That's the problem isn't it? How does Nonis move a player that his having his kind of impact if we are fighting for a playoff spot.

It would take big balls to make that move at or before the deadline.

My prediction is we do nothing, balk at his contract demands and lose him in free agency.

 

[TheCLAM]

That's the problem isn't it? How does Nonis move a player that his having his kind of impact if we are fighting for a playoff spot.

It would take big balls to make that move at or before the deadline.

My prediction is we do nothing, balk at his contract demands and lose him in free agency.

We aren't winning the cup.

Teams trade assets all the time and still make the playoffs. We are talking about moving Franson not Kessel

 

[rdawg1234]

That's the problem isn't it? How does Nonis move a player that his having his kind of impact if we are fighting for a playoff spot.

It would take big balls to make that move at or before the deadline.

My prediction is we do nothing, balk at his contract demands and lose him in free agency.

Yup, this is matt niskanen of last year guys, gonna play really well, put up big points and then go back to being average after getting a big contract.

but of course Nonis won't care, he'll give the usual we're fighting for a playoff spot, we may make it this year and get a first or second round exit and then bam he's gone.

 

[happyaccident]

That's the problem isn't it? How does Nonis move a player that his having his kind of impact if we are fighting for a playoff spot.

It would take big balls to make that move at or before the deadline.

My prediction is we do nothing, balk at his contract demands and lose him in free agency.

It's true, how do you even sell high on Franson anyway?
He'd be a partial-season rental for somebody to "push them over the top". Which rarely works and GMs are smartening up on that front, especially in a deep draft year. Even if you make him available at the trade deadline to the highest bidder, I don't see any huge return.

 

[Kessely Snipes]

Franson is getting 5.5+ from someone, still a lot of the season to be played though.

 

[Damisoph]

Would really prefer to just trade him to the west and get top value while he's playing so well.

He's been in the league for YEARS now guys, he's not an all-star D, he's playing well this year but was horrendous last year and average the year before.

can we sell high for once!?

I tend to agree...at least depending on the return. Low 1st rounder and a decent prospect? Is that unreasonable?

 

[Pholus]

I tend to agree...at least depending on the return. Low 1st rounder and a decent prospect? Is that unreasonable?

I'd say the return (if he's traded) depends on what the other GM views him as and if they are confident they'll be able to resign him. For a top pairing dman (also a right shot who can run your top pp), a 1st (that you hope is in the 25-30 range) and a decent prospect (top6/9 fwd or potential top4 dman) probably is worth it if you think you can sign him after your deep playoff run.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

There are three ways for us to get burned with Franson, and two ways for us to get good value.

Burned:
1) He walks for nothing
2) We trade him because we don't think his recent play is sustainable, and then he sustains it
3) We sign him because we think his recent play is sustainable, and then he falls back down to being a bottom-pairing PP specialist

Good Value:
1) We trade him because we don't think his recent play is sustainable, and then falls back down to former value
2) We sign him because we think his recent play is sustainable, and he actually sustains it

Whether or not you're a supporter or against the guy, there's evidence on both sides of the equation. This year he really is playing head and shoulders above previous years defensively, but it's hard to ignore previous years of larger sample sizes too.

I think management has a big decision to make between keeping him vs Gardiner. I can't really see us keeping both in a cap world.

Seems like the Leafs are going to have to make a move at some point. With just $16.3 m to work with to sign 8 - 10 players (10 if we want the current 23 player roster), then that could mean a couple of players will get moved.

I'd guess it would be one of Gardiner/Franson and a forward that has a contract that extends into next year (or beyond).

Whether we make the move(s) by the trade deadline, who knows? Maybe we do something different this year.