Friedman: Players teams are watching to see if they get qualified: Kase, Bear, Gurianov, Kapanen, Strome, Wood, Zacha

[Smitty426]

Zacha is a product of not living up to his potential. I'm assuming his QO is around $3M. There is no reason not too. Does he struggle a little. Yes.
Lets not forget he led the team in Goals, GPG Points and PPG last year and was on pace for 60 points.

Bye PZ

 

[PostBradMalone]

If the Oilers can't fit Kane in, I imagine they'll call on at least a couple of these guys. Strome in particular would be interesting given his previous time and chemistry with McDavid. If he were willing to sign a short-term prove it deal and Ryan McLeod shows out as a 25-30 point 3C, we could potentially run with this next year:

Strome-McDavid-Draisaitl
Hyman-RNH-Yamamoto/Puljujarvi
Holloway-McLeod-Yamamoto/Puljujarvi
Foegele*-Ryan-Kassian*

Nurse-?
Keith-Ceci
Broberg-Barrie*

?
Skinner

*- Possible cap causality

Hopefully in that scenario Keith also retires to give the Oilers the most cap possible to re-shape the goaltending and D.

 

[OVO16]

What are the chances Wood becomes a Free agent

 

[JimEIV]

I hate being right... Such a waste of a top pick in a historic draft. Set us back years.

Unfortunately it was 2015,16 and 17 picks that set us back for years.

2015 missed out on slew of good players.

2016 we went in with #11 and left with boardline NHL player at #12 while McAvoy and Chychrun 2 top pairing Dmen were sitting right in front of us. Chychrun was the BPA when we picked according to everyone on draft day. Not to mention the other bunch of excellent defensemen that were available in the 2nd and 3rd like Fox and Girard and we got Bastian at #42

2017 probably had the second weakest top 2 picks in a generation...after Yakupov/Murray then you probably gotta go back 22 years to DiPetro/Heatley and I'm not sure that is as weak as Hischier/Patrick? In the context of #1OA, we picked a bad year to win the lottery. Bad luck I guess.

The 2018 1st round pick wasn't much better...but you can at least excuse it being in the second half of the first round (barely) where the others were top third.

Hell you go 4 years with #6, #11, #1 and #17 and walk away with 3 warm bodies and a 2nd line center? It's the cumulative effect not just 2015.

 

[PettersonHughes]

He had surgery on a foot at the end of the regular season, was on crutches still just days ago.

Oh good to know, thanks.
Is his spot in the lineup secure? (Pesce's still signed, is TDA coming back? Does Bear have the 3rd RD spot locked down?)

 

[spockBokk]

Oh good to know, thanks.
Is his spot in the lineup secure? (Pesce's still signed, is TDA coming back? Does Bear have the 3rd RD spot locked down?)

I think Bear’s future in Raleigh depends on how cheap he’d be willing to sign for. The Canes have Chatfield signed at league minimum for the next 2yrs, and he didn’t look too bad in a 3rd pair role when called upon. They also have Joey Keane coming off his ELC, who imho is ready for the NHL.

Personally, I don’t see a spot for Bear in CAR anymore with Keane and Chatfield around, but if they can get him cheap for a few years, I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign him. Either way, I think he’s signed in the next few weeks, if that is a possibility, or more likely, they trade him for a pick or for another RFA forward’s rights.

I don’t see TDA going anywhere, unless he wants something crazy like $6M+ on his next deal.

 

[zodiacbiller]

Kapanen is a really frustrating player, he drove me nuts in Toronto, but he or Gurianov would reeeally shock me. Bear and Wood would also surprise me, but I'd love to get my hands on either. Unfortunately, Leafs' blue line is already fairly packed.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Wood has always been better than Blake Coleman IMO, and he's a rare player for what he brings size and skating wise. Kind of like Josh Anderson, hope he recovers well from injury

 

[Panthaz89]

Caproom means a lot this off season

Yeah you could use it to sign some pretty useful players....like Kapanen

 

[Buggsy]

Wood has always been better than Blake Coleman IMO, and he's a rare player for what he brings size and skating wise. Kind of like Josh Anderson, hope he recovers well from injury

Wood is so much worse than Blake Coleman. He is a great energy fourther liner but doesn't have the talent to match his speed.

 

[BlueBaron]

I hope we keep Kase. Really useful player when he's healthy. If you treat him like he's a spare forward you are fine, but his contract has to be low for that to work.

 

[wetcoast]

Kapanen seems the most shocking of the bunch. This not qualifying guys seems to be more popular among GMs these days than the past.

Kase is a great pickup for a team if he's willing to sign cheap. Ideally he stays with the Leafs

Kap is 25 now and just doesn't produce like a top 6 guy and probably isn't worth the money that it would cost for the Pens.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Arbitration is a big deal. Teams can pull comps and have a rough idea of what an arbitrator would award. And from there decide if that is too much for the player.

QO with the new rules is less of an issue today.

The walk away number is the big one. If you have a guy that gets awarded a 4 mil salary that you can't afford/won't pay, you're stuck with it.

 

[biturbo19]

I hope we keep Kase. Really useful player when he's healthy. If you treat him like he's a spare forward you are fine, but his contract has to be low for that to work.

That's the trick though...

Unless you can really hammer home the lack of reliable "availability" for Kase, he's going to have a production case in potential Arbitration, to get a lot more than that on a contract. It's hard to see him being awarded more than the "walk away" number of ~$4.5M. But i could easily see him reaching into the mid-upper $3Ms range. Which is a lot more than Toronto would obviously like to, or be able to afford to pay him. That'd throw a huge wrench in their already exceptionally tight cap situation.

Alternatively, if you're the Leafs, you hope Kase just recognizes that it's a good situation for him, and decides to sign a reasonable, affordable deal to carry on with his role there. Problem with that is, given Kase's inability to stay healthy...there's a reasonable chance he's looking at every contract (including this one) as critical to building himself a little nest egg, for when those injuries have piled up to the point he's no longer able to play at an NHL level. Thus, potentially trying to do whatever is within his power to maximize the dollar value of this deal.

So if you're the Leafs...that QO is a dangerous one. Because of the Arb rights it leads to, and the mess that could potentially cause. It's also not like Kase is a significant "key piece" or even really a particularly valuable "asset" to consider trading. That's where i could absolutely see the Leafs playing it safe, and just letting him walk rather than risk getting stuck with him on a deal they can't afford...and it's probably the prudent course of action.

 

[Just Linda]

Is barzal better than Hughes is right now?

Yes. Easy and undeniably yes.

 

[BlueBaron]

That's the trick though...

Unless you can really hammer home the lack of reliable "availability" for Kase, he's going to have a production case in potential Arbitration, to get a lot more than that on a contract. It's hard to see him being awarded more than the "walk away" number of ~$4.5M. But i could easily see him reaching into the mid-upper $3Ms range. Which is a lot more than Toronto would obviously like to, or be able to afford to pay him. That'd throw a huge wrench in their already exceptionally tight cap situation.

Alternatively, if you're the Leafs, you hope Kase just recognizes that it's a good situation for him, and decides to sign a reasonable, affordable deal to carry on with his role there. Problem with that is, given Kase's inability to stay healthy...there's a reasonable chance he's looking at every contract (including this one) as critical to building himself a little nest egg, for when those injuries have piled up to the point he's no longer able to play at an NHL level. Thus, potentially trying to do whatever is within his power to maximize the dollar value of this deal.

So if you're the Leafs...that QO is a dangerous one. Because of the Arb rights it leads to, and the mess that could potentially cause. It's also not like Kase is a significant "key piece" or even really a particularly valuable "asset" to consider trading. That's where i could absolutely see the Leafs playing it safe, and just letting him walk rather than risk getting stuck with him on a deal they can't afford...and it's probably the prudent course of action.

My understanding is they are negotiating now to avoid a bad arbitration. It appears to be a mutual interest situation. As you say he's a nice depth piece but not important enough to make cap space for. I think I heard we are working on something like 2x1.5 but no idea how reliable that is. It sounds like a workable number.

 

[Djp]

My understanding is they are negotiating now to avoid a bad arbitration. It appears to be a mutual interest situation. As you say he's a nice depth piece but not important enough to make cap space for. I think I heard we are working on something like 2x1.5 but no idea how reliable that is. It sounds like a workable number.

curious…what amt of $$$ is the make cap space line?

 

[ManofSteel55]

If the Oilers can't fit Kane in, I imagine they'll call on at least a couple of these guys. Strome in particular would be interesting given his previous time and chemistry with McDavid. If he were willing to sign a short-term prove it deal and Ryan McLeod shows out as a 25-30 point 3C, we could potentially run with this next year:

Strome-McDavid-Draisaitl
Hyman-RNH-Yamamoto/Puljujarvi
Holloway-McLeod-Yamamoto/Puljujarvi
Foegele*-Ryan-Kassian*

Nurse-?
Keith-Ceci
Broberg-Barrie*

?
Skinner

*- Possible cap causality

Hopefully in that scenario Keith also retires to give the Oilers the most cap possible to re-shape the goaltending and D.

Where is Bouchard? Why not have Ceci on the top pair with Nurse? Barrie might be a cap casualty. Hopefully we can bring Kulak back as well though.

Nurse - Ceci
???? (if Keith retires) - Bouchard
Kulak - Broberg

OR

Nurse - Ceci
Kulak - Bouchard
Keith - Broberg

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Hopefully in that scenario Keith also retires to give the Oilers the most cap possible to re-shape the goaltending and D.

Never understood this line of thinking from some Oiler fans. Has Keith given any indication he plans to retire?

He spent 20ish years with the Hawks organization, 16 playing for them winning 3 cups along the way. Then they turned around and traded him to one of the teams he wanted to go to so he could be closer to his family. He's going to retire to screw them over to help a team he's played 1 season for?

 

[DesertPenguin]

Kapanen will definitely be qualified. Due to the way his contract is structured, bonus money vs salary, his QO is less than a million. Even with the rough season he had, Pens will pay that to keep his rights.

Edit: whether they sign him or trade him before arbitration, accept the arbitration award if they get that far, is another story.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

maybe it's cause of his history in ANA but Kase can never stay healthy. It's hard to really commit to a guy when he is plagued with injuries so often

 

[Riptide]

Kapanen TOI 21/22 by month
October= 17:46
November= 16:46
December= 16:14
January = 14:07
february = 13:48
March= 12:58
April = 11:23


I'm getting the sense Sullivan isnt a fan.

Hard to be a fan when you have more productive options and the kid's game was meh. This is when having quality depth sucks for a player who's struggling. Some of those guys will be gone this summer, so that will hopefully open up a bit of room... but Kapanen's game wasn't the same as the year went on, and his TOI is reflective of this.

A healthy lineup based on their PO roster:

Guentzel - Crosby - Rakell
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Heinen - Carter - McGinn/Kapanen
Boyle/Rodrigues - Blueger - McGinn/Kapanen


The good news for Kapanen is that Rakell is likely gone (sad), and thus there's going to be some more space on the right side in the top 6/9. At the bare minimum Kapanen should be able to get consistent icetime.

Kapanen will definitely be qualified. Due to the way his contract is structured, bonus money vs salary, his QO is less than a million. Even with the rough season he had, Pens will pay that to keep his rights.

Edit: whether they sign him or trade him before arbitration, accept the arbitration award if they get that far, is another story.

The issue isn't what his QO is - that's irrelevant. The issue is if/when he files for arbitration. If he gets 3m-4m in arbitration the Pens cannot walk away (needs to be ~4.6m). Now I doubt he gets that much... but that's the risk and if he doesn't get qualified, that would be why.

 

[BlueBaron]

curious…what amt of $$$ is the make cap space line?

At a glance if any of Engvall, Kase, Lil or Sandin need more than 2 it's problematic.

If we move Mrazek and Holl we have a goalie fund. Need a back up and an affordable Lw.

Keeping those guys under 6 would give Dubas some flexibility.

 

[Andy99]

Hard to be a fan when you have more productive options and the kid's game was meh. This is when having quality depth sucks for a player who's struggling. Some of those guys will be gone this summer, so that will hopefully open up a bit of room... but Kapanen's game wasn't the same as the year went on, and his TOI is reflective of this.

A healthy lineup based on their PO roster:

Guentzel - Crosby - Rakell
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Heinen - Carter - McGinn/Kapanen
Boyle/Rodrigues - Blueger - McGinn/Kapanen


The good news for Kapanen is that Rakell is likely gone (sad), and thus there's going to be some more space on the right side in the top 6/9. At the bare minimum Kapanen should be able to get consistent icetime.



The issue isn't what his QO is - that's irrelevant. The issue is if/when he files for arbitration. If he gets 3m-4m in arbitration the Pens cannot walk away (needs to be ~4.6m). Now I doubt he gets that much... but that's the risk and if he doesn't get qualified, that would be why.

Yep, trade his rights for a draft pick if possible before QOs are due…

Good to see you posting again, Riptide…wish you were back posting on the Penguins forum…

 

[biturbo19]

My understanding is they are negotiating now to avoid a bad arbitration. It appears to be a mutual interest situation. As you say he's a nice depth piece but not important enough to make cap space for. I think I heard we are working on something like 2x1.5 but no idea how reliable that is. It sounds like a workable number.

Yeah. If you can get something done at that sort of price before the qualifying offer deadline, that absolutely makes sense for the Leafs. And it's a good situation for Kase, so it might even make sense from that end too.

But if that deadline comes down and they still haven't got something hammered out, that's where i could absolutely see the Leafs not tendering a QO. Because of the risk that it goes sideways and eats up more cap space than they can afford.