Player Discussion: Prospects Off Season ... including Gauthier

[BIitz]

Nylander ranked 11th in HF prospect rankings.

 

[Knies iT]

Bergeron has had a good career and scored 73 points in 70 games in his draft year.
Gauthier scored 60 points in 62 games his draft year.

PPG rate is not that much different. 1.04 versus 0.97

We don't know what Bergeron would have done if he stayed in junior, so we can't compare.

Gauthier will never be Bergeron, or even close to him for that matter. PB was a jack of all trades in junior, he had a well rounded offensive package and sound skating.

Absolutely hated the Gauthier pick when it happened; going into the draft he was the only player in the Leafs' range that I did not want.

But you have to make due with what you have. Gauthier is most likely going to be an NHL'er, but I think the only question at this point is whether he becomes a reliable 3rd liner, or a 4th line specialist.

He's a total Steckel/McClement hybrid.

 

[Cor]

Gauthier will never be Bergeron, or even close to him for that matter. PB was a jack of all trades in junior, he had a well rounded offensive package and sound skating.

Absolutely hated the Gauthier pick when it happened; going into the draft he was the only player in the Leafs' range that I did not want.

But you have to make due with what you have. Gauthier is most likely going to be an NHL'er, but I think the only question at this point is whether he becomes a reliable 3rd liner, or a 4th line specialist.

He's a total Steckel/McClement hybrid.

Gauthier is a real good skater, and has elite defensive skill. His IQ is through the roof. He hovers at PPG in junior, which is perfectly fine.

I really don't get why people rag on the guy. It makes no sense. Sorry he isn't scoring 130 points like 2012 6th Round Pick, Conor Garland, or 102 like undrafted 20 year old, Danick Martel.

 

[Knies iT]

Gauthier is a real good skater, and has elite defensive skill. His IQ is through the roof. He hovers at PPG in junior, which is perfectly fine.

I really don't get why people rag on the guy. It makes no sense. Sorry he isn't scoring 130 points like 2012 6th Round Pick, Conor Garland, or 102 like undrafted 20 year old, Danick Martel.

PPG in the Q, on the biggest powerhouse team in the league, as a 3rd year player is not perfectly fine. His PPG has not improved since he was drafted.

A real good skater? IQ through the roof? Nah.

He has efficient top end speed because he's huge and has a massive stride. Skating is multi-faceted; agility, top-end speed, acceleration. He is respectable in 1 of the 3 facets listed. Draisaitl won the Oilers' skating competition with Hall, Nuge, etc, etc. on the team. It's a linear drill that has little significance.

His HIQ is good in seeing the play without the puck. He can predict movement and intercept lanes, but his awareness in the offensive sense is average. He can find open linemates but he leaves a lot to be desired.

Won't argue about his defensive game, because it's really impressive. Outside of that, he's very underwhelming.

 

[Cor]

To you, maybe.

He's a very good skater for a big player. Scouts rave about is IQ.

You don't need to score buckets of points in junior to have an effective offensive skillset. Bergeron was only PPG in the QMJHL too.

There are TONS, and TONS of players who score like crazy in juniors and never make it.

Why?

They don't have the IQ that Gauthier has.
They don't have the awareness that Gauthier has.
They don't have half of the defensive game Gauthier has. Maybe not even 1/4.

I didn't even mention how good Gauthier is in the faceoff dot.

People HATE this guy because he isn't scoring 1.5 points a game. It's the oddest thing.

 

[NotSince67*]

The Leafs used that logic on Gauthier and likely used it with Biggs. They will likely have used two first round picks (+ with the Biggs trade) to get one 4th liner and one borderline AHLer.

Does that sound like a smart way to draft a team?

So tell us then, even with hindsight, who would you have drafted and why?

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Nylander ranked 11th in HF prospect rankings.

HF rankings are a joke anyhow.

 

[Knies iT]

To you, maybe.

He's a very good skater for a big player. Scouts rave about is IQ.

You don't need to score buckets of points in junior to have an effective offensive skillset. Bergeron was only PPG in the QMJHL too.

There are TONS, and TONS of players who score like crazy in juniors and never make it.

Why?

They don't have the IQ that Gauthier has.
They don't have the awareness that Gauthier has.
They don't have half of the defensive game Gauthier has. Maybe not even 1/4.

I didn't even mention how good Gauthier is in the faceoff dot.

People HATE this guy because he isn't scoring 1.5 points a game. It's the oddest thing.

Conversely, show me a list of well established players who have 2 or more seasons in the CHL just at or slightly below PPG. There are very few that go on to be more than dime a dozen players.

Also, you're making it sound like he's Zezel in the dot. He's pretty good, but as someone else pointed out, he's only around 50 some percent...

 

[VictorLustig]

Saw Nylander skate yesterday. He looks much bigger than last summer.

 

[Menzinger]

Not a huge fan of the Gauthier pick, but I think it's a bit unfair to assume he'll be a Steckle level player. Steckle is awful at every aspect of the game other than faceoffs. Let's just wait and see how he turns out

 

[AlienWorkShop]

He is way bigger without the offensive game which takes longer in big players (see Colbourne.)

Am I supposed to be impressed by Colborne putting up 28 and 36 point (pro-rated to 82 games) seasons since we traded him? (3 points in 11 games in these playoffs too)

Bit off topic, but I've seen his name brought up a few times as a mistake for trading him... I'm still skeptical of a 3rd/4th line centre on a "lucky" Flames squad. (FWIW, awful SAT/USAT too, like the rest of the Flames - btw, have people transitioned from Corsi/Fenwick to SAT/USAT...?

Back on topic, looking forward to Gauthier's "generational" defensive talent. He's going to be quite an outlier NHLer it seems. Can't do anything with the puck in the offensive zone, but his sheer presence will keep the game in the neutral zone until he's brought off the ice, to the relief of the paying public. It'll remind me of when I'd prompt my girlfriend to pay attention whenever Jay McClement, he of 2 gallant first round playoff losses fame, numerous shifts served on various lower-half standings clubs, and all to briefly considered the 1-man cause of temporary penalty kill percentage spikes, stepped on the ice for our glorious, martyrising franchise. All hail those of marginal general talent, but wielders of specific, vaguely identifiable skills that can allow ourselves to mythologize their apparent greatness for our hollowed Maple Leafs.

*ducks*

 

[Nithoniniel]

Not a huge fan of the Gauthier pick, but I think it's a bit unfair to assume he'll be a Steckle level player. Steckle is awful at every aspect of the game other than faceoffs. Let's just wait and see how he turns out

Yeah I've been trying to point that out. Steckel and McClement both were awful at pretty much everything except for faceoffs and PK ability. Gauthier looks like he can actually be very good defensively 5-on-5 as well.

I just don't see much of a chance that he turns into one of those two, yet they are the ones most often mentioned.

 

[theIceWookie]

Tyler Johnson went undrafted. Palat went un-selected for two years and then was picked in the 7th round. You can absolutely let these guys "cook" in the AHL.

Kucherov(2nd round) however did not spend much time "cooking". He only spent 17 games in the AHL and was in the NHL at 20 years old.

There is a big difference between these 2 situations. You can absolutely let your long-shot prospects spend lots of time in the AHL but your top prospects like a guy like Nylander or Kucherov you dont leave down in the minors for an extenden period of time.

The point was he spent time in the AHL. I see no reason why it is a bad thing. If a player is good enough, he'll move on. No reason to move before he is ready. For any prospect.

Prospects aren't all the same. If a high end prospect needs time in the AHL and no other porpswct if his status has done it before, it doesn't have to be a bad thing.

 

[SprDaVE]

Yeah I've been trying to point that out. Steckel and McClement both were awful at pretty much everything except for faceoffs and PK ability. Gauthier looks like he can actually be very good defensively 5-on-5 as well.

I just don't see much of a chance that he turns into one of those two, yet they are the ones most often mentioned.

I've been saying for a while that a mix of Handzus/Kelly type of forward is a solid expectation for Gauthier and his future role/production.

 

[theIceWookie]

PPG in the Q, on the biggest powerhouse team in the league, as a 3rd year player is not perfectly fine. His PPG has not improved since he was drafted.

A real good skater? IQ through the roof? Nah.

He has efficient top end speed because he's huge and has a massive stride. Skating is multi-faceted; agility, top-end speed, acceleration. He is respectable in 1 of the 3 facets listed. Draisaitl won the Oilers' skating competition with Hall, Nuge, etc, etc. on the team. It's a linear drill that has little significance.

His HIQ is good in seeing the play without the puck. He can predict movement and intercept lanes, but his awareness in the offensive sense is average. He can find open linemates but he leaves a lot to be desired.

Won't argue about his defensive game, because it's really impressive. Outside of that, he's very underwhelming.

Let's not mention that he doesn't get top opportunities on rimouski because they are a top team and use him as their shutdown center rather than giving him more offensce opportunity. Because they are trying to win.

But mentioning that would break te carefully cultivated idea that he's just an awful pick and blah blah blah bull****

Let's all keep whining about a pick that's was made two years ago.

 

[theIceWookie]

Conversely, show me a list of well established players who have 2 or more seasons in the CHL just at or slightly below PPG. There are very few that go on to be more than dime a dozen players.

Also, you're making it sound like he's Zezel in the dot. He's pretty good, but as someone else pointed out, he's only around 50 some percent...

His percentage is one of the best in the league...oh no it's not too much higher than 50 though!!!

And Andrew Ladd...4th overall pick...barely above ppg in his chl career. Ryan getzlaf.

I've compiled a list before of about 20/30 players who have been impact players in te NHL under your parameters, yet it's ignored because people want to whine about gauthier.

maybe let the guy play in pro before limiting his long term outlook. Crazy notion right?

 

[Nithoniniel]

I've been saying for a while that a mix of Handzus/Kelly type of forward is a solid expectation for Gauthier and his future role/production.

Absolutely. I think if we are looking at a 4th line low expectations comparable for Gauthier, we should look at Boyd Gordon.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Not a huge fan of the Gauthier pick, but I think it's a bit unfair to assume he'll be a Steckle level player. Steckle is awful at every aspect of the game other than faceoffs. Let's just wait and see how he turns out

I agree, Paul Gaustad is a far better comparable for Gauthier. He looks like a 3rd and 4th line specialist Center. Will play more protecting a lead in the third. Will play less if we are playing catch up. This is what I see in him.

 

[BlueBaron]

HF rankings are a joke anyhow.

The Hockey News rated him about the same.

 

[gabeliscious]

The Leafs used that logic on Gauthier and likely used it with Biggs. They will likely have used two first round picks (+ with the Biggs trade) to get one 4th liner and one borderline AHLer.

Does that sound like a smart way to draft a team?

i cant dispute that it was foolish to give up assets just to draft biggs but i have a problem when people label kids as busts or set their ceilings before they pay a single nhl game.

most nhl teams have a 23 man roster. you can only have 3 players on the first line. we need players for the 3rd and 4th line as well. generally with the leafs the problem is not that the top 2 lines have been crap, its that the bottom 6 has been crap. leafs have brutal depth. this past season was the first time that we almost had a great bottom 6. our bottom 6 was broken up because of injuries and stuff but the bottom line is most teams contending for a cup have solid depth in the bottom 6. gauthier can 100% be a solid piece for us moving forward. the question is just will he be a 4th line center or a 3rd. either way we need both. especially if a normal coach will roll 4 lines. as for biggs, he might surprise people. it think we havent seen the best from him yet. put him on a line with people that can actually play hockey and maybe something exciting will come from it.

 

[ULF_55]

Yeah I've been trying to point that out. Steckel and McClement both were awful at pretty much everything except for faceoffs and PK ability. Gauthier looks like he can actually be very good defensively 5-on-5 as well.

I just don't see much of a chance that he turns into one of those two, yet they are the ones most often mentioned.

Well, McClement was over a PPG as a 19 year old ...

 

[Nithoniniel]

Well, McClement was over a PPG as a 19 year old ...

Yeah, I mostly meant that McClement as an NHL player never had the skill set to be effective defensively. Gauthier has that skillset already. He might never produce better than McClement did, but we can be rather sure he'll be a good shot suppressor.

 

[deletethis]

This all seems eerily similar to Kenny Ryan being called a defensive monster a few seasons back as Ryan put up mediocre offensive stats on a very good OHL team.

While I'm sure there are some posters who just delight in the probability of Gauthier flaming out as a pro prospect, there are some of us who don't delight in it but are realistic about what we're looking at. I'd love nothing more than to be completely wrong about Gauthier. I say put your hopes on better Leafs' prospects.

 

[ULF_55]

Yeah, I mostly meant that McClement as an NHL player never had the skill set to be effective defensively. Gauthier has that skillset already. He might never produce better than McClement did, but we can be rather sure he'll be a good shot suppressor.

This all seems eerily similar to Kenny Ryan being called a defensive monster a few seasons back as Ryan put up mediocre offensive stats on a very good OHL team.

While I'm sure there are some posters who just delight in the probability of Gauthier flaming out as a pro prospect, there are some of us who don't delight in it but are realistic about what we're looking at. I'd love nothing more than to be completely wrong about Gauthier. I say put your hopes on better Leafs' prospects.

I wanted Gauthier, on record, so I'm hoping he turns out. Even if I wasn't on record I hope all Leafs prospects achieve their ceilings.

A Leafs Cup is more important than my personal and biased opinions.

But I really expected to see offensive improvement. Huge boy playing against almost exclusively much smaller boys and this is it for offensive improvement over 2 years?

He was my choice, but no way do I look at him as a good pick today. But then I was okay with Biggs, but not with moving up and using a 1st. and 2nd. to land him.

First round picks are so important, and what do the Leafs have to show for much of the past few years? Kadri, Rielly, Biggs, Percy, Gauthier, Nylander. Maybe Nylander and Rielly are part of a winner, the others just so much mediocre or worse.

 

[mydnyte]

people can call the Goat a 3rd or 4th liner all they want, but in the end he will be our key matchup guy and always play against every teams top line, take all the critical faceoffs, and be the goto guy on the PK ...therefore he will have almost, if not more ice time than the #1C on the team, so, i'm not sure how you would be able to call him a 3rd 4th liner, when he could easily be the best defensive Centerman this team has had in the past 20~30 years.

He will have 2nd line ice time easily, and if you want to call him the 3rd line C because his line may not be as offensive, so be it, but, if he has skilled forwards flanking him, I think they still does fine at both ends of the ice.