Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap: Time is Relevant and Empty Arenas are Wormholes

[Gurglesons]

I'm kind of at that point also. We should also be really set in that regard

7 Forwards: Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, Tanev, Hornqvist. The real issue is that we have to keep Hornqvist protected because he has a NTC. Ideally we would rather keep McCann or Blueger

3 Defense: Letang, Dumoulin, Pettersson. Marino won't count.

1 Goalie: Jarry

So we would lose McCann or Blueger, I'd imagine.

No idea why we would protect Tanev over McCann or Teddy if they are on the team still.

I also think the exercise is difficult because JR likely makes some major moves to our roster over the summer and next given Murray, Bjugstad and JJ are likely either moved out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Does it? I'm looking at Rust17's post and it look damn tight.

The Penguins are right at the cap with signing Murray for $5 million, McCann and Jarry for $2.5 million and Lafferty and a 14th forward for $800k. This results in Trotman being your #7 and JJ-Ruhwedel being the #6, which sucks but is possible.

 

[Gurglesons]

The Penguins are right at the cap with signing Murray for $5 million, McCann and Jarry for $2.5 million and Lafferty and a 14th forward for $800k. This results in Trotman being your #7 and JJ-Ruhwedel being the #6, which sucks but is possible.

Do you really think Murray will be signed at 5?

 

[Peat]

Murray on a RFA contract at 5m I can buy. Feel like that's a really difficult one to place. Ditto Jarry at 2.5m. I can buy both being higher too, but I don't know what the hell's going on.

McCann at 2.5m is a big favour for him though. I don't see why he'd have to take less than Kapanen for RFA years if he didn't want to.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

Murray is gone in the off season.

 

[Gurglesons]

Murray on a RFA contract at 5m I can buy. Feel like that's a really difficult one to place. Ditto Jarry at 2.5m. I can buy both being higher too, but I don't know what the hell's going on.

McCann at 2.5m is a big favour for him though. I don't see why he'd have to take less than Kapanen for RFA years if he didn't want to.

I really don't see how Murray is a 5m dollar goalie despite his year this year and that is without factoring in what happens from here.

That is what Andersen got 4 years ago. Elvis just got 4 mil. I don't see Murray getting under 6.

 

[Peat]

I really don't see how Murray is a 5m dollar goalie despite his year this year and that is without factoring in what happens from here.

That is what Andersen got 4 years ago. Elvis just got 4 mil. I don't see Murray getting under 6.

Andersen sold a lot of UFA years. Elvis sold one although his history is weird. A one year contract for Murray will be RFA only.

Honestly, I don't know what Murray's going to get, particularly on a 1 year deal. There's not many comparables for his success and inconsistency.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Do you really think Murray will be signed at 5?

If it's only on a 1 year deal, yeah I do. I think you may even be able to get him for less, I don't think he has a particularly strong arbitration case unless he kicks ass in the playoffs.

Murray on a RFA contract at 5m I can buy. Feel like that's a really difficult one to place. Ditto Jarry at 2.5m. I can buy both being higher too, but I don't know what the hell's going on.

McCann at 2.5m is a big favour for him though. I don't see why he'd have to take less than Kapanen for RFA years if he didn't want to.

I think the McCann contract would be a similar situation to the Pettersson contract. It would be a "take 1 year at less and we'll make it up to you next year" type of situation. I could see the Penguins and McCann agreeing to the same deal that Rust got (4 years at $3.5 million), but then breaking it up into a 1 year, $2.5 million AAV deal and a 3 year, $3.833 million AAV deal.

Jarry for 1 year at $2.5 million falls between what Korpisalo got and what Merzlikins got, because Korpisalo's first year is at $2.2 million and Merzlikins' first year is at $3 million. If you go 2 years, Jarry will go higher, but I think you can get him for that price on a 1 year deal.

 

[Peat]

I
I think the McCann contract would be a similar situation to the Pettersson contract. It would be a "take 1 year at less and we'll make it up to you next year" type of situation. I could see the Penguins and McCann agreeing to the same deal that Rust got (4 years at $3.5 million), but then breaking it up into a 1 year, $2.5 million AAV deal and a 3 year, $3.833 million AAV deal.

Jarry for 1 year at $2.5 million falls between what Korpisalo got and what Merzlikins got, because Korpisalo's first year is at $2.2 million and Merzlikins' first year is at $3 million. If you go 2 years, Jarry will go higher, but I think you can get him for that price on a 1 year deal.

Welp, the McCann thing might happen, but I don't like putting too many bets on something happening that involves a lot of player good will. And while it did happen with Pettersson, there's one big difference in that Pettersson didn't have arbitration rights and McCann does.

Not bad logic on Jarry though. Not sure two years makes it much higher either as he's got another RFA year.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I think that the Pens, if they keep both of them, can sign the Murray-Jarry combo for $7m to $7.5m.

 

[Gurglesons]

If it's only on a 1 year deal, yeah I do. I think you may even be able to get him for less, I don't think he has a particularly strong arbitration case unless he kicks ass in the playoffs.



I think the McCann contract would be a similar situation to the Pettersson contract. It would be a "take 1 year at less and we'll make it up to you next year" type of situation. I could see the Penguins and McCann agreeing to the same deal that Rust got (4 years at $3.5 million), but then breaking it up into a 1 year, $2.5 million AAV deal and a 3 year, $3.833 million AAV deal.

Jarry for 1 year at $2.5 million falls between what Korpisalo got and what Merzlikins got, because Korpisalo's first year is at $2.2 million and Merzlikins' first year is at $3 million. If you go 2 years, Jarry will go higher, but I think you can get him for that price on a 1 year deal.

I think he has a pretty strong arbitration case to make at minimum 5.5-6. But I guess when you look at his overall numbers he is one of the worst playoff goalies in the last three years and pretty middling in the regular season.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think that the Pens, if they keep both of them, can sign the Murray-Jarry combo for $7m to $7.5m.

This is workable. It'd be short-term for both, but I don't think either is in a position to demand more than a short-term deal at this point.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Give Murray, Jarry and McCann 1 year deals and it works. And the problem with sending Lafferty to the AHL is that there isn't even a guarantee that the AHL happens next year.

Trade Murray, Bjugstad, and Johnson.

Problem solved.

 

[Peat]

This is workable. It'd be short-term for both, but I don't think either is in a position to demand more than a short-term deal at this point.

It's not just about what they can demand though, it's about what we want, and I'm not sure it should be what we want. A one year deal for Murray in particular sacrifices all his asset value under most scenarios while still taking up enough cap that it's complicated whether he'd provide enough added value over spending the money elsewhere and rolling with Jarry/DeSmith/Whoever.

 

[Giskard]

It's not just about what they can demand though, it's about what we want, and I'm not sure it should be what we want. A one year deal for Murray in particular sacrifices all his asset value under most scenarios while still taking up enough cap that it's complicated whether he'd provide enough added value over spending the money elsewhere and rolling with Jarry/DeSmith/Whoever.

If GMJR can re-sign both, even for a 1 year deal, he should go for it, having 2 great goalies for another year is better then risk lose Murray for nothing to UFA, we can't afford to pick the wrong goalie and tank the last years of this Penguins.

 

[Peat]

If GMJR can re-sign both, even for a 1 year deal, he should go for it, having 2 great goalies for another year is better then risk lose Murray for nothing to UFA, we can't afford to pick the wrong goalie and tank the last years of this Penguins.

We're not risking losing Murray for nothing in UFA this year. We're only risking that if we sign him to a 1 year deal at the end of this year.

And while I think it's a good point that we don't want to pick the wrong goalie, pushing the decision a year back means we mightn't get to pick anyway because if Murray does well, can we afford to keep him as a UFA?

Plus, as I kinda mentioned, is two great goalies better than a great goalie, a good backup, and a stronger blue line?

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I suspect it'll be a 1-2 year deal for Murray and a 2-3 year deal for Jarry. It is my suspicion that DeSmith gets traded and Tokaraski signs a two-way deal.

 

[KIRK]

I suspect it'll be a 1-2 year deal for Murray and a 2-3 year deal for Jarry. It is my suspicion that DeSmith gets traded and Tokaraski signs a two-way deal.

* IF Murray's ask is reasonable . . . on a 2-3 year deal would involve giving up 1-2 years of free agency, that's less likely rather than more likely.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

We're not risking losing Murray for nothing in UFA this year. We're only risking that if we sign him to a 1 year deal at the end of this year.

And while I think it's a good point that we don't want to pick the wrong goalie, pushing the decision a year back means we mightn't get to pick anyway because if Murray does well, can we afford to keep him as a UFA?

Plus, as I kinda mentioned, is two great goalies better than a great goalie, a good backup, and a stronger blue line?

Pushing the decision back a year is fine with me. I like DeSmith, but Jarry's sample size is small enough and Murray was great enough at his best to make me want to be sure we make the right decision.

If Murray definitively proves he's the guy, then yeah, we find a way to re-sign him. There's enough fat on this roster to trim. That, and I think 2 good young goalies for another year is likely better than whatever addition we could make on the blueline with that money.

 

[Son Goku]

I suspect it'll be a 1-2 year deal for Murray and a 2-3 year deal for Jarry. It is my suspicion that DeSmith gets traded and Tokaraski signs a two-way deal.

Puke

 

[Andy99]

* IF Murray's ask is reasonable . . . on a 2-3 year deal would involve giving up 1-2 years of free agency, that's less likely rather than more likely.

Murray might well sign a one year deal as a RFA, but yeah, no way does he sign a second or third year without substantial compensation...I can see that JR might want that extra year to expose him to Seattle in the worst case, but it’s going to cost him...

 

[Peat]

Pushing the decision back a year is fine with me. I like DeSmith, but Jarry's sample size is small enough and Murray was great enough at his best to make me want to be sure we make the right decision.

If Murray definitively proves he's the guy, then yeah, we find a way to re-sign him. There's enough fat on this roster to trim. That, and I think 2 good young goalies for another year is likely better than whatever addition we could make on the blueline with that money.

The bolded feels a little overconfident to me given we've already seen Rutherford fail to get him signed once when he wanted to (the extension that was meant to happen last summer).

Not sure I'd agree with there being that much roster fat either. There's only two players on the team that I see who are significantly paid and who could be replaced internally/by a non-major player acquisition in JJ and Bjugstad. Likelihood is one of them is sacrificed this year to pay the RFAs (particularly if keeping Murray) and the other is gone the next to pay for Marino. Who else do you think is fat?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The bolded feels a little overconfident to me given we've already seen Rutherford fail to get him signed once when he wanted to (the extension that was meant to happen last summer).

Not sure I'd agree with there being that much roster fat either. There's only two players on the team that I see who are significantly paid and who could be replaced internally/by a non-major player acquisition in JJ and Bjugstad. Likelihood is one of them is sacrificed this year to pay the RFAs (particularly if keeping Murray) and the other is gone the next to pay for Marino. Who else do you think is fat?

But if he proves he's definitively better than Jarry, then that's what we have to do. You don't run with the inferior goalie.

"Roster fat" is too strong a phrase, you're right. JJ and Bjugs have to go, obviously. After that, the next logical choice (if it comes to that) is Hornqvist. He's hardly roster fat, but he's a misfit in our top 6 and 5.5 mil per is a hefty price for a 3rd liner.

 

[KIRK]

Murray might well sign a one year deal as a RFA, but yeah, no way does he sign a second or third year without substantial compensation...I can see that JR might want that extra year to expose him to Seattle in the worst case, but it’s going to cost him...

And I can't see JR wanting to touch that kind of hit. It would cost more in terms of the cap hit on a 2-3 year deal than anything.

If the market is awful or he stands on his head in the playoffs (something that conversely could price him out), then it's a much closer call. Otherwise, I'm leaning towards JR moving him at the end of the season.

 

[KIRK]

But if he proves he's definitively better than Jarry, then that's what we have to do. You don't run with the inferior goalie.

"Roster fat" is too strong a phrase, you're right. JJ and Bjugs have to go, obviously. After that, the next logical choice (if it comes to that) is Hornqvist. He's hardly roster fat, but he's a misfit in our top 6 and 5.5 mil per is a hefty price for a 3rd liner.

That's your exception, assuming Murray doesn't subsequently price himself out of Pittsburgh. In THAT case, I could see JR using Jarry to move JJ or Bjugs.