Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap: Time is Relevant and Empty Arenas are Wormholes

[Empoleon8771]

Trade Murray, Bjugstad, and Johnson.

Problem solved.

I think trading Bjugstad and Johnson would be extremely difficult with a flat cap and a lot of teams being near the cap.

I also don't think they'll want to trade a goalie, it's more likely that they try to find a way to keep both.

 

[Peat]

But if he proves he's definitively better than Jarry, then that's what we have to do. You don't run with the inferior goalie.

I think this lacks a little nuance. If Murray gets greedy and is chasing the most he can get in FA, there's a point at which we have to stop, right? Particularly if Jarry still looks competent. Jarry could probably be locked up for 3 years at 3m at this point. If he looks like a standard NHL goalie who mostly lives and dies by the defence in front of himself and doesn't crap himself under pressure, how much better does Murray have to be worth keeping if he's at 8m or so? That's a big enough difference that you've got to run with an inferior something somewhere after all.

"Roster fat" is too strong a phrase, you're right. JJ and Bjugs have to go, obviously. After that, the next logical choice (if it comes to that) is Hornqvist. He's hardly roster fat, but he's a misfit in our top 6 and 5.5 mil per is a hefty price for a 3rd liner.

That was one of the three names that I figured might come up. I don't entirely disagree but at the same time, our PP has a tendency to look like a ton of chewed bubblegum when he's not there and he's a guy who's usually got solid results on the third line if memory serves, which isn't always that common. Losing him would hurt - according to The Athletic's GSVA model that they showed in our pre-season preview, more than losing Murray would - and we don't have an internal replacement for that PP role. Now, sure, he's probably on a downhill slope at some point, but...

 

[Harvey Birdman]

I think trading Bjugstad and Johnson would be extremely difficult with a flat cap and a lot of teams being near the cap.

I also don't think they'll want to trade a goalie, it's more likely that they try to find a way to keep both.

I think Murray is flat out gone. But I do think you are right trading Bjustad and Johnson is gonna be next to impossible after this. So if they need to create space I could see them burying Bjustad in the AHL because you’d only have to take his partial cap hit for one year. Easy to swallow. I have no living idea what to do or what I think GMJR will do with JJ... I just hope he has a card up his sleeve with that one. Can’t really buy him out, I mean you can... But why? Saves you almost nothing. Bury him sure but then you have that dead space for 4 years. I have no clue with JJ. But I could just see JR waive Bjustad and take the dead space for a year to make some wiggle room.

 

[Khelandros]

But if he proves he's definitively better than Jarry, then that's what we have to do. You don't run with the inferior goalie.

"Roster fat" is too strong a phrase, you're right. JJ and Bjugs have to go, obviously. After that, the next logical choice (if it comes to that) is Hornqvist. He's hardly roster fat, but he's a misfit in our top 6 and 5.5 mil per is a hefty price for a 3rd liner.

Saying Hornqvist is a third liner is like saying Sheary is a 1st liner. Just because they play there, doesn't indicate what their actual worth is. Hornqvist on the 3rd line is because of stupid reasons, most of which disappear once the Playoffs start, not because of his actual talent level. $5.3MM per for him is a steal.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Saying Hornqvist is a third liner is like saying Sheary is a 1st liner. Just because they play there, doesn't indicate what their actual worth is. Hornqvist on the 3rd line is because of stupid reasons, most of which disappear once the Playoffs start, not because of his actual talent level. $5.3MM per for him is a steal.

Not really. Hornqvist is used as a back-up top 6 forward. I fully realize Hornqvist's value, but the fact is that he's not regularly used in the top 6 on this team.

I like Hornqvist, even at 5.3 mil per, but he's not worth more than Murray if he shows he's definitively a better goalie than Jarry. And at that price, he makes for the most natural option to move if we've exhausted our other cap-shedding options.

I think this lacks a little nuance. If Murray gets greedy and is chasing the most he can get in FA, there's a point at which we have to stop, right? Particularly if Jarry still looks competent. Jarry could probably be locked up for 3 years at 3m at this point. If he looks like a standard NHL goalie who mostly lives and dies by the defence in front of himself and doesn't crap himself under pressure, how much better does Murray have to be worth keeping if he's at 8m or so? That's a big enough difference that you've got to run with an inferior something somewhere after all.

Definitively better. If Murray's only marginally better, then you go with the far cheaper goalie.

That was one of the three names that I figured might come up. I don't entirely disagree but at the same time, our PP has a tendency to look like a ton of chewed bubblegum when he's not there and he's a guy who's usually got solid results on the third line if memory serves, which isn't always that common. Losing him would hurt - according to The Athletic's GSVA model that they showed in our pre-season preview, more than losing Murray would - and we don't have an internal replacement for that PP role. Now, sure, he's probably on a downhill slope at some point, but...

That's going on their present values, not the condition of my scenario, where Murray would have definitively shown himself to be the better player.

Guentzel would likely make a fine internal replacement for Hornqvist. He doesn't do everything Hornqvist does, but he's a great net-front option and does other things there that Hornqvist can't.

I'd rather have both obviously, but if that's not possible, I'd make due with Guentzel if the alternative meant giving up the substantially better goaltending option.

 

[Khelandros]

Not really. Hornqvist is used as a back-up top 6 forward. I fully realize Hornqvist's value, but the fact is that he's not regularly used in the top 6 on this team.

Hornqvist not being used in the top 6 doesn't negate the fact that he is a top 6 forward.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Some players just don't fit so neatly into categories. Hornqvist is one of those players, IMO.

I personally think his "true" top six days are mostly behind him. But that's a pretty nebulous assertion and the guy keeps posting up 20 goal seasons so whatever.

 

[KIRK]

No idea why we would protect Tanev over McCann or Teddy if they are on the team still.

I also think the exercise is difficult because JR likely makes some major moves to our roster over the summer and next given Murray, Bjugstad and JJ are likely either moved out.

I'm not sure JR won't protect any of them over Hornqvist. Now, he might protect him. But, in 18 months, with 2 more years at 5.3M. Strikes me, at least potentially, as a different proposition.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think Murray is flat out gone. But I do think you are right trading Bjustad and Johnson is gonna be next to impossible after this. So if they need to create space I could see them burying Bjustad in the AHL because you’d only have to take his partial cap hit for one year. Easy to swallow. I have no living idea what to do or what I think GMJR will do with JJ... I just hope he has a card up his sleeve with that one. Can’t really buy him out, I mean you can... But why? Saves you almost nothing. Bury him sure but then you have that dead space for 4 years. I have no clue with JJ. But I could just see JR waive Bjustad and take the dead space for a year to make some wiggle room.

I have a tough time concretely saying Murray will be gone when I have so little assurance that Jarry can be a consistent starter for the Penguins going forward. Picking Jarry over Murray because of 1 season has huge potential to backfire disastrously.

 

[KIRK]

I have a tough time concretely saying Murray will be gone when I have so little assurance that Jarry can be a consistent starter for the Penguins going forward. Picking Jarry over Murray because of 1 season has huge potential to backfire disastrously.

I don't think it's concrete by a long shot, but this one cuts both ways no matter how the postseason plays out.

A. If Murray has a bad postseason, then is he gone for a fresh start or staying because he's affordable?

B. If Murray kills it, then is he here because he's earned it or does he get priced out to the point that you take the ransom you can get after a great postseason?

C. If he falls in between (plays well but not great but there are other more prevalent issues why the Pens fall), are the Pens better off keeping him and running a 1A/1B with Jarry or getting assets for him and finding someone to split with Jarry?

My own GUESS is that he's gone in either scenario A or B. C is the scenario where he's least likely to go.

And, just a pure gut feeling, I think he's far more likely than not to be gone.

But, yeah, in any scenario, nothing is concrete.