Proposal: PIT - TBL (Post-Expansion)

[jboyd919]

Pens need defensive depth and a winger who is an upgrade in an area that is not pressing is not good management. If Pens move MAF, it will include a cap helping goalie and open up a trade or include a defensemen.

Also need a new 3C for next year.

 

[Riptide]

Yep, I personally think a lot of TB fans are overvaluing Johnson. Look was Kessel brought in... Kapenan, 1st, Harrington, Spaling. I think the deal for Johnson should be Sundqvist, Pouliot, 1st. Sundqvist is absolutely capable of being their new 4c after they trade the overrated Boyle for some ridiculous return from Chiarelli. Pouliot is probably better than Sustr, Garrison, and Coburn...

No one anywhere should be using the Kessel deal as a benchmark. Between his NTC, him refusing to change/waive it and the cap situation of those few teams Toronto could talk to, Toronto had 1 option and 1 option only - Pittsburgh. Rutherford knew this, and leveraged it to the max. Looking at how the individual players/prospects are developing, Toronto should be happy they had to "settle" for Kapanen, and didn't get Rutherford to budge on including Pouliot (who's been inconsistent and poor since the start of this season).

 

[Riptide]

Johnson is better than Rust in every aspect of hockey.

I don't think anyone doubts that. However he also makes (or will make) almost 10 times what Rust will make next season and TJ will make probably 2-4 times what Rust will make when he signs his next contract (for the 18/19 season). So there's definitely a certain value to be had there when you start looking at what each player will cost you. This isn't meant to knock on TJ - I'd love to have him depending on the cost. I'm just pointing out the value that someone like Rust brings given his cap hit.

 

[Riptide]

Probably the closest, recent trades equivalent to a Tyler Johnson trade. No elite young defensemen. It's all packages and pieces. That's how it works. Which one of those do you find similar to a return you would expect for Johnson? If you're lookin at Jumbo Joe, ain't happenin. Johnson is nowhere near Thornton's level. Or Seguin, or even Kessel.

You provided 9 examples. 4 of them had some sort of NTC that prevented their GM from trading him to their desired location. Sutter isn't even in the ballpark of the caliber of player discussed - and every single Pen fan said that was a 100% clear win the second that trade was made, so I'm not sure why that's listed here.

Of the remaining 4 (Seguin, Thornton, Saad, Staal), Staal only had 1 place PIT could really trade him to max out his value - Carolina. The fact that we got as much as we did surprised everyone. And the only reason we got that was likely because Carolina knew exactly what they could sign him for, and that they could easily sign him.

Which leaves 3 examples. Two of which (Thornton/Seguin) have been examples that have been tossed around for years as "clear wins" for SJ/DAL. I doubt Tampa has any interest in following in their footsteps.

Do I think TB would get anything close to what some TB fans are asking for? No, of course not. But I also think he'd cost more then what most PIT fans (and yourself) are suggesting.

 

[jboyd919]

No one anywhere should be using the Kessel deal as a benchmark. Between his NTC, him refusing to change/waive it and the cap situation of those few teams Toronto could talk to, Toronto had 1 option and 1 option only - Pittsburgh. Rutherford knew this, and leveraged it to the max. Looking at how the individual players/prospects are developing, Toronto should be happy they had to "settle" for Kapanen, and didn't get Rutherford to budge on including Pouliot (who's been inconsistent and poor since the start of this season).

Look at the rest of the trades I posted, deals for centers/top 6 talent, the returns are very similar to the Kessel deal.

 

[jboyd919]

You provided 9 examples. 4 of them had some sort of NTC that prevented their GM from trading him to their desired location. Sutter isn't even in the ballpark of the caliber of player discussed - and every single Pen fan said that was a 100% clear win the second that trade was made, so I'm not sure why that's listed here.

Of the remaining 4 (Seguin, Thornton, Saad, Staal), Staal only had 1 place PIT could really trade him to max out his value - Carolina. The fact that we got as much as we did surprised everyone. And the only reason we got that was likely because Carolina knew exactly what they could sign him for, and that they could easily sign him.

Which leaves 3 examples. Two of which (Thornton/Seguin) have been examples that have been tossed around for years as "clear wins" for SJ/DAL. I doubt Tampa has any interest in following in their footsteps.

Do I think TB would get anything close to what some TB fans are asking for? No, of course not. But I also think he'd cost more then what most PIT fans (and yourself) are suggesting.

So realistically, what do you think he brings in as a return?

 

[jboyd919]

I don't think anyone doubts that. However he also makes (or will make) almost 10 times what Rust will make next season and TJ will make probably 2-4 times what Rust will make when he signs his next contract (for the 18/19 season). So there's definitely a certain value to be had there when you start looking at what each player will cost you. This isn't meant to knock on TJ - I'd love to have him depending on the cost. I'm just pointing out the value that someone like Rust brings given his cap hit.

I'm aware of that, but I think 3C is far more important to upgrade than keeping a RW like Rust, who could be replaced easier than 3C IMO.

 

[HoseEmDown]

That's too much IMO. Pouliot, Sundqvist and a 1st SHOULD get it done. I'd pull the trigger on that one. Hell I'd probably include Fehr if they wanted him (just to lose his cap hit).

That's a crap offer and does nothing for us. We have our own Pouliot in Koekkoek who we need to give NHL minutes to next year. We have several players like Sundqvist in the AHL or coming up in junior. Then a late 1st in a weaker draft. How is any of that worth Johnson?

The list of young centers traded don't show that each of those teams wanted to move that player. Boston wanted to move on from both Thornton and Seguin, Toronto wanted out from Kessel, Staal wanted to be paid and Pittsburgh didn't want to pay him, the list goes on. Unless Johnson says he wants ridiculous money on his next deal we don't need to trade him unless we get an offer we can't refuse and the one you mentioned is a joke.

 

[jboyd919]

You provided 9 examples. 4 of them had some sort of NTC that prevented their GM from trading him to their desired location. Sutter isn't even in the ballpark of the caliber of player discussed - and every single Pen fan said that was a 100% clear win the second that trade was made, so I'm not sure why that's listed here.

Of the remaining 4 (Seguin, Thornton, Saad, Staal), Staal only had 1 place PIT could really trade him to max out his value - Carolina. The fact that we got as much as we did surprised everyone. And the only reason we got that was likely because Carolina knew exactly what they could sign him for, and that they could easily sign him.

Which leaves 3 examples. Two of which (Thornton/Seguin) have been examples that have been tossed around for years as "clear wins" for SJ/DAL. I doubt Tampa has any interest in following in their footsteps.

Do I think TB would get anything close to what some TB fans are asking for? No, of course not. But I also think he'd cost more then what most PIT fans (and yourself) are suggesting.

Also, I just went back to 8 or so years and looked for trades of similar value player wise to see the type of returns.

 

[Riptide]

Look at the rest of the trades I posted, deals for centers/top 6 talent, the returns are very similar to the Kessel deal.

I just did, and half of them fall into a pretty similar category as the Kessel deal. Not quite as extreme, but damn close. Nash gave CBJ 1 option and 1 option only. The fact that CBJ did okay in that with AA and Dub is more of those two doing better than everyone expected then them "winning" the trade when it was made. Kessel gave Van a couple of teams. Spezza had a 10 team no trade list, and refused to waive for NSH.

 

[jboyd919]

That's a crap offer and does nothing for us. We have our own Pouliot in Koekkoek who we need to give NHL minutes to next year. We have several players like Sundqvist in the AHL or coming up in junior. Then a late 1st in a weaker draft. How is any of that worth Johnson?

The list of young centers traded don't show that each of those teams wanted to move that player. Boston wanted to move on from both Thornton and Seguin, Toronto wanted out from Kessel, Staal wanted to be paid and Pittsburgh didn't want to pay him, the list goes on. Unless Johnson says he wants ridiculous money on his next deal we don't need to trade him unless we get an offer we can't refuse and the one you mentioned is a joke.

TBL probably won't have the cap room for Johnson, Drouin, Palat extensions, plus Kuch, Killorn, Stamkos, Cally, etc. Which is why he is a candidate to be moved.

 

[jboyd919]

I just did, and half of them fall into a pretty similar category as the Kessel deal. Not quite as extreme, but damn close. Nash gave CBJ 1 option and 1 option only. The fact that CBJ did okay in that with AA and Dub is more of those two doing better than everyone expected then them "winning" the trade when it was made. Kessel gave Van a couple of teams. Spezza had a 10 team no trade list, and refused to waive for NSH.

What do you expect as a return then for Johnson?

 

[Rschmitz]

TB would honestly be pretty dumb not to take that first deal.

The first can be used to either pick up another piece elsewhere, or packaged to get rid of someone like Callahan.

Rust is a real nice piece (burned us repeatedly in the ECF last year) and Pouliot could fit in with whoever is still with the team (either Garrison or Coburn) on the second pair or maybe with Koekoek on the third pair.


Palat - Stamkos - Kucherov
Rust - Point - Drouin
Erne - Filppula - Callahan
Brown - Fehr - Paquette
Namestnikov

Hedman-Stralman
Garrison-Pouliot/Koekkoek
Sustr/Dotchin/Witowski - Puliot/Koekkoek

I think you are either selling TJ short, or overvaluing how much we need depth. If Pouliot had shown some signs of being a top 4 D to this point I would have a different opinion, but he's behind Koekkoek in his development curve which is saying a whole lot.

 

[jboyd919]

I think you are either selling TJ short, or overvaluing how much we need depth. If Pouliot had shown some signs of being a top 4 D to this point I would have a different opinion, but he's behind Koekkoek in his development curve which is saying a whole lot.

You mean these signs?

 

[Riptide]

So realistically, what do you think he brings in as a return?

Honestly? Hard to say. I don't think the OP is that far off. Does it address Tampa (or their fans) needs/wants of a top 4D? No. Is there a certain value there with pieces that can and do both help their team, address needs, and provide legitimate value? Yes.

Rust/Sundqvist, Fehr, Pouloit and a 1st for TJ and a 3rd isn't bad value. And to an extent, I think TB fans are underrating some of those pieces; and more specifically the value GMs would place on them.

On the other hand I do not see why Yzerman would move TJ for "value" unless he's either A) getting back something he specifically wants (whether that's depth like the OP proposed or a key player such as a top 4D) or B) has external pressure forcing his hand (cap/budget issues, etc). And even then I think people are overlooking how hard it is to find quality center depth (there were a few posts about how TB could just go sign someone). There's a reason why PIT fans are pretty interested in this discussion. Skilled 2/3 centers - especially young ones are hard to find.

I know I'm not the GM (or a GM), but if it was me, I wouldn't trade someone as valueable as TJ if I wasn't getting a young D who I at least believed could be a top 4D in the near future (say 2 seasons) in return. And while I think DP holds more value then most PIT fans think, just on our board alone there's enough doubt about DP and what his odds of success (top 4D) will be that it's not a surprise that other fans are not all that enthusiastic about him as a key piece to the OPs proposal.

 

[HoseEmDown]

TBL probably won't have the cap room for Johnson, Drouin, Palat extensions, plus Kuch, Killorn, Stamkos, Cally, etc. Which is why he is a candidate to be moved.

We most likely lose Killorn to the expansion draft and try to move one of Garrison or Filpulla for some more. We could move one of Palat or Johnson but not on the cheap and hopefully in a hockey trade for a top 4 D.

 

[jboyd919]

Honestly? Hard to say. I don't think the OP is that far off. Does it address Tampa (or their fans) needs/wants of a top 4D? No. Is there a certain value there with pieces that can and do both help their team, address needs, and provide legitimate value? Yes.

Rust/Sundqvist, Fehr, Pouloit and a 1st for TJ and a 3rd isn't bad value. And to an extent, I think TB fans are underrating some of those pieces; and more specifically the value GMs would place on them.

On the other hand I do not see why Yzerman would move TJ for "value" unless he's either A) getting back something he specifically wants (whether that's depth like the OP proposed or a key player such as a top 4D) or B) has external pressure forcing his hand (cap/budget issues, etc). And even then I think people are overlooking how hard it is to find quality center depth (there were a few posts about how TB could just go sign someone). There's a reason why PIT fans are pretty interested in this discussion. Skilled 2/3 centers - especially young ones are hard to find.

I know I'm not the GM (or a GM), but if it was me, I wouldn't trade someone as valueable as TJ if I wasn't getting a young D who I at least believed could be a top 4D in the near future (say 2 seasons) in return. And while I think DP holds more value then most PIT fans think, just on our board alone there's enough doubt about DP and what his odds of success (top 4D) will be that it's not a surprise that other fans are not all that enthusiastic about him as a key piece to the OPs proposal.

I also think that part of the value of an OP or my type trade is the cap savings and cost controlled players. DP and Sundqvist/Rust are capable players on cost controlled contracts. TBL knows they're going to be in cap hell. Unless they package Johnson with Cally/Garrison/Filp/etc... the cap "relief" to sign Drouin/Palat is also seen as a positive in this deal, getting players like DP, Sund/Rust on cheap contracts. The Fehr throw-in, I can't see TB being interested, that 2m can be spent elsewhere. Unless Killorn or Flip come off the books.. they are going to need cost controlled players. They have a LOT of money tied into a bad blue line (behind Heddy/Stralman of course).

 

[tjs*]

Honestly? Hard to say. I don't think the OP is that far off. Does it address Tampa (or their fans) needs/wants of a top 4D? No. Is there a certain value there with pieces that can and do both help their team, address needs, and provide legitimate value? Yes.

Rust/Sundqvist, Fehr, Pouloit and a 1st for TJ and a 3rd isn't bad value. And to an extent, I think TB fans are underrating some of those pieces; and more specifically the value GMs would place on them.

On the other hand I do not see why Yzerman would move TJ for "value" unless he's either A) getting back something he specifically wants (whether that's depth like the OP proposed or a key player such as a top 4D) or B) has external pressure forcing his hand (cap/budget issues, etc). And even then I think people are overlooking how hard it is to find quality center depth (there were a few posts about how TB could just go sign someone). There's a reason why PIT fans are pretty interested in this discussion. Skilled 2/3 centers - especially young ones are hard to find.

I know I'm not the GM (or a GM), but if it was me, I wouldn't trade someone as valueable as TJ if I wasn't getting a young D who I at least believed could be a top 4D in the near future (say 2 seasons) in return. And while I think DP holds more value then most PIT fans think, just on our board alone there's enough doubt about DP and what his odds of success (top 4D) will be that it's not a surprise that other fans are not all that enthusiastic about him as a key piece to the OPs proposal.

Add to this the fact that despite our down year we have the talent to be competitive in the near future. A player who might be a top 4 defenseman in two seasons isn't worth creating a massive hole at center now. It'd be different if we were committing to a two-year rebuild but I doubt that will be the case - signing Stamkos to that massive deal (which I still view as a mistake) commits us to trying to win while he's still in his prime. So if we do trade Johnson and create that massive hole at center we damn well better be filling the massive hole we have on defense in the process - the only thing that makes sense for us is a one-for-one hockey trade, not a quality for quantity deal.

 

[Riptide]

I also think that part of the value of an OP or my type trade is the cap savings and cost controlled players. DP and Sundqvist/Rust are capable players on cost controlled contracts. TBL knows they're going to be in cap hell. Unless they package Johnson with Cally/Garrison/Filp/etc... the cap "relief" to sign Drouin/Palat is also seen as a positive in this deal, getting players like DP, Sund/Rust on cheap contracts. The Fehr throw-in, I can't see TB being interested, that 2m can be spent elsewhere. Unless Killorn or Flip come off the books.. they are going to need cost controlled players. They have a LOT of money tied into a bad blue line (behind Heddy/Stralman of course).

For sure. But neither would TB have any shortage of GMs willing to offer something similar if that's what they were looking for as the return. At which point, you have to wonder even if the deal surrounds "young cost controlled players", is PIT offering up the best deal out there? Like I said, I think to an extent the value is there (or at least enough of it that the basis of a deal could be there). But I get why TB fans are not all that interested. Trading young good established players like TJ for "depth" is never a sexy move.

 

[tjs*]

For sure. But neither would TB have any shortage of GMs willing to offer something similar if that's what they were looking for as the return. At which point, you have to wonder even if the deal surrounds "young cost controlled players", is PIT offering up the best deal out there? Like I said, I think to an extent the value is there (or at least enough of it that the basis of a deal could be there). But I get why TB fans are not all that interested. Trading young good established players like TJ for "depth" is never a sexy move.

Especially when the depth we'd be getting doesn't fit a key need. We need high-caliber center depth; trading Johnson obviously makes that even worse. We need a 3D; acquiring Pouliot does nothing to solve that. We do need lower-line scoring depth and Rust would help in that regard, but he's not worth what losing Johnson does to our top six center depth and we have young players coming in who can contribute in that area without costing us Johnson. So even aside from value this deal doesn't make sense for the Lightning.

 

[jboyd919]

Especially when the depth we'd be getting doesn't fit a key need. We need high-caliber center depth; trading Johnson obviously makes that even worse. We need a 3D; acquiring Pouliot does nothing to solve that. We do need lower-line scoring depth and Rust would help in that regard, but he's not worth what losing Johnson does to our top six center depth and we have young players coming in who can contribute in that area without costing us Johnson. So even aside from value this deal doesn't make sense for the Lightning.

What do you expect to get in return then? Name some players or a package from some team that could possibly deal with the Lightning. I'm curious. I'm extremely familiar with the Lightning, worked for the team for the last 6 years, lived in Tampa since 2010 and I think that deal addresses everything the Lightning need. Personally I think Namestnikov can play 2C and Point 3C, and they can also move up (if Stammer gets injured) and not drown. And I think having puck movers Koekkoek and Pouliot on the D solves a LOT of issues TBL has.

http://www.rawcharge.com/2017/2/14/...suggests-some-issues-with-lightning-defenders

Looking at this article.. they have problems moving the puck. Pouliot is absolutely a puck moving defenseman with 2nd pairing potential. I believe the problem is moreso with Jon Cooper, to be honest. New coach with new philosophy could fix a lot.

 

[Riptide]

What do you expect to get in return then? Name some players or a package from some team that could possibly deal with the Lightning.

Looking at this article.. they have problems moving the puck. Pouliot is absolutely a puck moving defenseman with 2nd pairing potential. I believe the problem is moreso with Jon Cooper, to be honest. New coach with new philosophy could fix a lot.

There's really no shortage of teams who would have interest in Johnson if he was available. Carolina immediately comes to mind (as does Montreal, Columbus & Nashville). They (CAR) have a couple young guys who could provide center depth and a lot of blueline depth. How they value TJ and their own guys would be an issue, but if they valued TJ enough, then there's probably a better fit there.

Would they offer up a package that included TT or Lindholm? If TJ was willing to sign long term, I think they might. Not quite as cheap (cap wise) as what the OP offered, but definitely higher end player(s) coming back - and ones that more importantly probably do more to address what we think/believe to be TBs needs.

 

[Rschmitz]

You mean these signs?

It's the sample size. We need to get better defensively, not worse. Would you feel comfortable with Pouliot in your top 4 yet? Why exactly is he a better fit than Koekkoek? Having to expose him in the ED makes it that much worse.

What do you expect to get in return then? Name some players or a package from some team that could possibly deal with the Lightning. I'm curious. I'm extremely familiar with the Lightning, worked for the team for the last 6 years, lived in Tampa since 2010 and I think that deal addresses everything the Lightning need. Personally I think Namestnikov can play 2C and Point 3C, and they can also move up (if Stammer gets injured) and not drown. And I think having puck movers Koekkoek and Pouliot on the D solves a LOT of issues TBL has.

http://www.rawcharge.com/2017/2/14/...suggests-some-issues-with-lightning-defenders

Looking at this article.. they have problems moving the puck. Pouliot is absolutely a puck moving defenseman with 2nd pairing potential. I believe the problem is moreso with Jon Cooper, to be honest. New coach with new philosophy could fix a lot.

Vatanen, Ceci, Matheson, Beaulieu. Just to name a few

You think Namestnikov would be a good #2 C? I'm highly skeptical of the credibility of everything you just said now. Namesy is currently fighting to be tendered a qualifying offer.

There is just so much here to disagree with.

 

[Butchered]

I think if you're talking 1V1 trades, then yeah, there are better players out there to be had for TB.

This gives you a lower tier defender, but it also gives you depth scoring which is something TB dearly, dearly needs. The first can be used elsewhere to fill gaps.

 

[jboyd919]

It's the sample size. We need to get better defensively, not worse. Would you feel comfortable with Pouliot in your top 4 yet? Why exactly is he a better fit than Koekkoek? Having to expose him in the ED makes it that much worse.

The trade proposed is for post expansion draft. And yes, I actually do want Pouliot in the Pens 2nd pairing, or at the least 3rd pairing. I hate that he doesn't get playing time. I think he's looked fine when in the game. Not saying hes a better fit than Koekkoek, but I think Pouliot's addition can help give the Bolts 3 puck movers.

Vatanen, Ceci, Matheson, Beaulieu. Just to name a few

You think Namestnikov would be a good #2 C? I'm highly skeptical of the credibility of everything you just said now. Namesy is currently fighting to be tendered a qualifying offer.

There is just so much here to disagree with.

WHAT? HAHAHA fighting to be tendered an offer?! On what basis?! The guy produces/supresses shots at a 2nd to 1st line level. Is on pace for 35ish points while being yoyo'd up and down the lineup because Coop is a moron. Dude already has great chemistry with Kuch. At 5v5, he's got the 2nd most scoring chances for at forward. (also a +62 on scoring chances differential). +6 on 5v5 goal differential on a team where the Goalies have been struggling. Dude is fine and could easily slot in at 2C. Pens will take Namestnikov off your hands.